随着美国股市进入因感恩节而缩短的交易周，投资者的目光再度聚焦在消费者身上。在经历了一段动荡 后，美股走势悬念依旧。 上周五，标普500指数录得周线下跌，11月以来累计下跌3.5%，有望创下3月以来最差月度表现。 DoubleLine副首席投资官Jeffrey Sherman提到，市场对美国边境征税关注不足，预计还有更多"关税之 痛"在产业链中持续传导。现阶段，企业将多少关税成本转嫁给消费者、利润空间会受到多大侵蚀，仍 然存在疑问。 摩根大通资管2026年展望报告提到，"美国关税显著增长，6月至10月平均每月带来超290亿美元收入。 迄今为止，大部分关税成本都由零售商消化。" FactSet数据显示，正赶在假日季和年度购物高峰之前，市场波动性显著上升。 假期将至，流动性稀缺加剧波动 随着部分投资者休假、市场流动性趋于稀薄，本周股价波动有可能进一步放大。摩根大通资管首席全球 策略师David Kelly在电话采访中表示，预计今年假日季可能"偏软"。关税推高了包括进口玩具在内的一 众商品价格，这对许多消费者来说"不是什么好消息"。 消费被视为推动美国经济和企业利润的重要引擎。零售商们希望"黑五"折扣能吸引大批顾客， ...

美国官员将该计划描述为"工作文件"，但要将其转变为乌克兰及其欧洲盟友更能接受的版本，将是一项 艰巨的外交任务。 乌克兰会放弃顿涅茨克吗？ 欧洲和乌克兰谈判代表上周日与美国官员进行紧张磋商，试图修改华盛顿本周提出的和平计划细节，他 们认为该计划对俄罗斯极为有利。 美国正敦促基辅在周四前接受这份包含28个条款的协议，该协议框架松散且缺乏细节。草案纳入了俄罗 斯多项长期诉求，同时突破了基辅的明确红线，并回避了欧洲的安全关切。 最困难的问题是乌克兰军队从目前控制的顿涅茨克省东部地区撤军，它解释了美俄为何重新推动和平协 议——这将通过外交手段实现俄罗斯总统普京的军队自2014年以来未能攻占的目标。 随着俄罗斯军队在顿涅茨克前线取得缓慢但渐进的进展，美国总统特朗普确信俄罗斯在那里的胜利不可 避免。放弃乌克兰人为保卫而流血牺牲的领土，可能会在乌克兰引发高度争议和动荡， 留在待移交地 区的数万名乌克兰人将被迫流离失所。这意味着乌克兰将放弃由斯洛夫扬斯克、克拉马托尔斯克、德鲁 日基夫卡和康斯坦丁诺夫卡等城市组成的"堡垒带"，这些城市自2014年以来一直是抵御俄罗斯军队的屏 障。 该计划称乌克兰"将获得可靠的安全保障"，但没有提 ...

华尔街经济学家表示，上周发布的姗姗来迟的9月就业报告，让美联储在12月利率决策时的道路变得更 加复杂。 "无论是维持还是降息，都可能出现多个反对票，"摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli在上周四的 研究报告中写道。"我们认为这是一个非常接近的决定，甚至比去年9月更接近。此前我们预计下月会降 息，但现在倾向于认为委员会下月会跳过降息，但1月和5月仍会降息，然后暂停。" 经济学家指出，由于政府关闭，9月就业报告已经过时，尽管标题数字超出预期，但细节并非全是好消 息。 对早期数据的修正显示，美国经济8月减少了4000个就业岗位，而此前报告的是增加2.2万个。7月新增 7.2万个岗位，低于此前报告的7.9万个。失业率从上月的4.3%略升至4.4%。与此同时，劳动力参与率从 62.3%小幅上升至62.4%。 "我们看到失业率上升的同时，劳动力参与率也在上升，"安永-帕特侬首席经济学家Gregory Daco在接受 采访时表示。"这意味着截至夏季末，有更多人处于劳动力市场的边缘。" "从美联储的角度来看，另一个值得关注的有趣现象是，我们看到工资增长势头面临下行压力，"他补充 道。"我们知道，许多美联储政策 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 根据加沙政府媒体办公室的数据，自10月10日停火生效以来的44天里，以色列至少497次违反美国斡旋 的加沙停火协议，造成数百名巴勒斯坦人死亡。袭击中有342名平民丧生，其中儿童、妇女和老人占大 多数。 音频由扣子空间生成 在过去一周的大部分时间里，随着以色列一系列空袭以及加沙死亡人数不断上升，哈马斯威胁要让美国 支持的停火协议崩溃。然而，以色列军方在上周日最新声明中表示，是哈马斯恐怖分子反复违反休战协 议。 一位美国消息人士指出，"哈马斯还没有放弃，但已明确表示无法再接受以色列的任何攻击。对他们来 说，加沙不会成为黎巴嫩，我希望我们能控制住局势。" 以色列军方则指责哈马斯越过所谓的"黄线"，即休战"禁止跨越"区域；但与此同时，哈马斯声称以色列 占领军正在稳步向西推进"黄线"，这是公然违反协议。 加沙官员表示，停火生效以来死亡人数大幅上升，这表明正是以色列在违反协议。 "协议已经结束，（哈马斯）准备战斗，"地区媒体援引哈马斯消息人士的话说。据报道，哈马斯已向美 国中东特使威特科夫传达了其立场，表示准备终止停火。 但以色列媒体随后表示，"哈马斯当晚晚些时候声称，以色列关于其告 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普设立的政府效率部（DOGE）距合约结束仍有8个月，却已正式解散。该部门曾高调成 立，是特朗普承诺缩减政府规模的核心象征，但批评者称其几乎没有带来可量化的成本节约。 "该部门已不存在，"人事管理办公室（OPM）主任斯科特·库珀（Scott Kupor）本月早些时候被问及 DOGE现状时向路透社如此表示。 库珀补充称，它不再是一个"集中化实体"，这是特朗普政府首次公开确认DOGE的终结。 这个于1月成立的机构，在特朗普第二任期初期在华盛顿掀起大刀阔斧的行动，旨在快速缩减联邦机构 规模、削减预算或将工作重心转向特朗普的优先事项。据库珀及路透社查阅的文件显示，作为联邦政府 人力资源主管部门的人事管理办公室，已接管了DOGE的多项职能。 至少两名DOGE核心员工目前加入了国家设计工作室（National Design Studio），这是特朗普8月通过行 政命令成立的新机构。该机构由爱彼迎（Airbnb）联合创始人乔·吉比亚（Joe Gebbia）牵头，特朗普在 命令中要求其优化政府网站外观。 吉比亚曾是亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）领 ...

Group 1 - Despite pressures from U.S. tariffs, early signs from Japan's annual wage negotiations indicate a significant increase in salaries is expected, supporting the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hikes [1][2] - The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, plans to seek salary increases of 5% or more in the 2026 negotiations, following a similar request in 2025 that resulted in the largest wage hike in 34 years [1][2] - The manufacturing sector remains robust, with a Reuters survey showing a manufacturing confidence index at a near four-year high, supported by a weak yen and stable orders [2][3] Group 2 - A survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research predicts an average salary increase of 4.88% for next year, slightly higher than the previous year's expectation, with actual increases reaching 5.52% this year [3] - The Japanese government, under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, is likely to pressure companies to raise wages, aiming for salary increases that outpace inflation [4] - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage data and feedback from its branches to assess the feasibility and timing of interest rate hikes, with expectations of a potential increase in December [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December, driven by concerns over the labor market and recent statements from key officials [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a deteriorating labor market [1]. - The labor market is showing signs of "low hiring, low firing," suggesting it may be at a critical point of worsening [1]. - Economists express concerns that the current economic situation exhibits stagflation characteristics, with high inflation and high unemployment coexisting [5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, publicly advocated for a rate cut, stating there is still room for further adjustments [2][3]. - The market's interpretation of Williams' comments led to a surge in the probability of a December rate cut from nearly 40% to over 70% [2]. - The alignment of views among influential Fed officials, including Powell, Williams, and Governor Waller, suggests a strong consensus for a new round of easing [2]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements - Despite the rising consensus for a rate cut, some Fed officials, like Boston Fed President Collins and Dallas Fed President Logan, expressed hesitance, citing inflation concerns [5]. - There are fundamental disagreements within the Fed regarding whether current policies are tight or loose, with some officials worried about the strong performance of capital markets [5][6]. - The conflicting phenomenon of a weak labor market alongside strong consumer spending remains a point of confusion for all Fed officials [6]. Group 4: Decision-Making Context - The upcoming Fed meeting will occur in a "data vacuum" due to the prolonged government shutdown, limiting access to the latest employment and inflation data [8]. - The concept of "insurance rate cuts" may be emphasized, suggesting that any rate cut would be a precautionary measure while the Fed observes economic reactions [8]. - Officials opposing the rate cut signal that the Fed is not cutting rates merely for the sake of it, which could prevent higher inflation expectations in the bond market [8].

Core Insights - The initial positive reaction to Nvidia's earnings report did not alleviate investor concerns about the AI stock bubble, leading to significant market volatility [1] - The market is currently divided into two camps: skeptics who warn of bubble risks and optimists who see potential for long-term growth [2] Group 1: Skeptics' Concerns - Skeptics are worried that the market valuations are reaching unreasonable levels as investors chase a few AI-related stocks [3] - There are concerns about the sustainability of the massive capital investments made by companies to remain competitive, especially as they begin to incur debt [3] - The cyclical nature of these financing arrangements could pose systemic risks, where the weakness of one company could drag down the entire AI-related sector [3] Group 2: Optimists' Perspective - Optimists view the recent pullback in AI stocks as a healthy correction, indicating that greater growth is on the horizon [4] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet are expected to continue investing heavily in AI, with a projected 34% increase in capital expenditures to $440 billion over the next 12 months [4] - There is a belief that the AI investment cycle is just beginning, supported by strong industry demand and a favorable regulatory environment [4] Group 3: Nvidia's Role and Market Reactions - Nvidia's performance was anticipated due to prior disclosures from its major clients, which account for over 40% of its sales [5] - Despite Nvidia's strong earnings, other semiconductor stocks have faced significant declines, with the chip-related stock index dropping 11% in November, marking the worst monthly performance since 2022 [5] - Concerns about the sustainability of AI spending have led to sharp declines in stocks of companies like AMD and ARM, with losses exceeding 20% [5] Group 4: Investment Return Concerns - Investors are increasingly questioning the return on investment (ROI) for AI-related expenditures, which is critical for future growth and profitability [6] - The need for clarity on ROI is seen as essential for reviving interest in AI investments, with expectations that it may take one or two more quarters to see relevant evidence [6] - Nvidia's earnings report may have temporarily alleviated immediate concerns about AI investment sustainability, but doubts about large spending companies remain [6] Group 5: Market Volatility and Consensus - The divergence in investor perspectives contributes to ongoing volatility in the AI market, with macroeconomic uncertainties and differing views on the AI revolution's development stage [8] - The collapse of the cryptocurrency market is also seen as a factor contributing to the observed volatility [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is experiencing a perplexing phenomenon where a slowdown in hiring coexists with high worker productivity and strong GDP growth, creating challenges for policymakers [1][2][3] Group 1: Employment Trends - U.S. companies have significantly slowed down hiring, with an average of only about 62,000 new jobs added over the last three months as of September [1] - The labor market has faced challenges due to major policy changes affecting labor supply and demand, particularly in trade and immigration [2] - There is uncertainty about whether interest rate cuts can offset the negative effects of these policy changes on hiring [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Productivity - Despite weak job creation, GDP remains strong, with consumer spending supporting corporate profit levels [2] - Businesses are investing heavily in new technologies, including artificial intelligence, which may lead to reduced spending in other areas such as hiring [2] - The resilience of the economy is attributed to robust consumer behavior and significant investments in AI, yet this has not translated into expected job growth [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Challenges - The divergence between strong economic growth and weak job creation complicates policy decisions for the Federal Reserve, leading to a complex environment for monetary policy [1][3] - Federal Reserve officials have expressed hesitation about further interest rate cuts unless there is clear evidence of inflation decreasing or the labor market cooling [3] - The potential for a disconnect between GDP performance and employment growth poses risks for the U.S. economy, with warnings that continued strong growth without job expansion could lead to recession [3]

SHMET 网讯：美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）上周日表示，美国在2026年不存在陷 入经济衰退的风险，并宣称民众将很快从特朗普政府在贸易和税收方面的经济政策中获益。 在接受NBC新闻《会见新闻界》（Meet the Press）节目采访时，贝森特表示："我对2026年非常、 非常乐观。我们已经为实现强劲且非通胀性的经济增长奠定了基础。" 贝森特称，共和党大规模支出计划——《大而美法案》（One Big, Beautiful Bill Act）的部分内容 仍在逐步生效，其经济效果尚未完全显现。这项新法律将特朗普2017年的减税政策永久化，同时包括用 于抵消社会保障税的老年人"奖金"，以及更大的州和地方税收抵扣。该计划还为小费收入、加班工资和 汽车贷款提供了税收减免。 贝森特补充说，医疗保健成本也有望变得更加可负担。这位财长表示，特朗普政府本周将在该议题 上发布更多消息。目前，由于与《平价医疗法案》市场补贴延期相关的国会僵局，数百万人的医疗成本 预计将被推高。 贝森特指出，限制加班费税收、削减小费税和部分人群的社会保障税，以及使汽车贷款可抵扣等政 策变化，将提高美国工薪阶层的实际收入水 ...