鲍威尔曾利用在杰克逊霍尔的年度演讲来暗示货币政策的重大转变。2024年，在为抑制疫情后的一波通 胀而将联邦基金利率维持在高位后，他确认美联储即将进行一年多来的首次降息。这一次，鲍威尔可能 会利用这次峰会来暗示，美联储是否准备好自去年12月以来恢复降息。 鲍威尔也可能会阐明他如何看待美联储当前的困境。美联储的任务是利用货币政策来保持低通胀和高就 业。但最近，在美国总统特朗普发起了前所未有的提高关税的运动后，这两个经济指标都已走向了错误 的方向。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 华尔街将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上的讲话，他可能会在讲话中暗 示美联储是否准备在9月的下一次会议上降息。 鲍威尔定于北京时间周五晚10点发表题为《经济展望与框架评估》的演讲。这次谈话可能会揭示这位美 联储主席对抗击通胀的看法，以及他是否认为美联储已准备好将其基准联邦基金利率从目前4.25%至 4.5%的区间下调。他和其他美联储官员认为，目前的利率水平足以对经济增长构成"温和"压力，并对 通胀施加下行压力。 给降息希望泼冷水 鉴于令人警惕的通胀数据，市场参与者对9月降息可能过于乐观。B ...

Core Points - Trump is leading a movement to abolish mail-in voting, claiming states must follow federal directives [1][2] - He plans to sign an executive order to ensure the fairness of the 2026 midterm elections, which he believes will benefit the Republican Party [1] - Trump is pressuring Republican-led states to redraw congressional districts to maintain a slight advantage in the House [1] Group 1 - Trump has expressed intentions to eliminate mail-in voting, questioning its security and labeling it as "inaccurate and expensive" [2] - Legal experts argue that Trump lacks the authority to unilaterally ban mail-in voting, emphasizing that states have the primary control over election methods [2] - The ongoing criticism of mail-in voting by Trump has influenced Republican voter behavior, with an increase in mail-in voting among Republicans for the 2024 election [2] Group 2 - The American Civil Liberties Union emphasizes the importance of mail-in voting for election fairness and is prepared to counter these unfounded constitutional attacks through legal means [3]

Core Viewpoint - Former President Trump claims to have ended six conflicts and suggests the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict could be the seventh, despite many conflicts remaining unresolved [2][3]. Group 1: Conflicts Claimed to be Resolved - Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace agreement in August, but the stability of this agreement is uncertain, with external opposition from Iran and Russia [4][5][6]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a peace agreement in June, but recent tensions and accusations of violations by both sides raise doubts about its effectiveness [7]. - Trump facilitated a ceasefire between Israel and Iran after a 12-day conflict, but concerns remain about the potential for renewed hostilities due to Iran's nuclear ambitions [8][9]. - India and Pakistan experienced heightened tensions, with Trump claiming to have brokered a ceasefire, although India denies external intervention's role in the cessation of hostilities [10]. - Cambodia and Thailand agreed to an unconditional ceasefire in July, but the agreement faced immediate challenges due to mutual accusations of aggression [11]. Group 2: Conflicts from Trump's First Term - The situation between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam remains unresolved, with no formal peace agreement reached despite Trump's claims of having prevented a war [12]. - The limited peace agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, known as the Washington Agreement, has not resolved ongoing tensions, with NATO urging further negotiations [13][14].

哈马斯表示，它已告知调解人其已接受该提议。以色列方面未对结束战争的最新外交努力发表正式评 论。 依靠极右翼盟友来维持其执政联盟的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在周一晚间的一段视频信息中说："和你们 一样，我听到了媒体的报道，从中你可以得到一个印象——哈马斯正承受着核弹般的（巨大）压力。" 极右翼的国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔（Itamar Ben-Gvir）在社交媒体上写道，内塔尼亚胡"无权推 行一项部分协议"。 一位听取了会谈简报的外交官表示，哈马斯已告知埃及和卡塔尔调解人，它愿意接受一项旨在结束加沙 战争并确保以色列人质获释的停火提议。 他们表示，这个巴勒斯坦激进组织已同意一项保留了98%的美国特使威特科夫5月份提出的协议，而以 色列最初也曾接受该方案，该计划呼吁初步休战60天。 "该提议包含了一条通往结束战争的全面协议的路径，"这位外交官说，并补充说，协议最初将包括释放 半数人质。 在以色列的攻势已使该飞地遭受重创并导致普遍饥荒之后，其正面临来自盟友要求其结束攻势的日益增 加的压力，而最新的外交努力正是在此背景下展开的。 这些会谈将处理诸如该飞地的战后治理和安全安排，以及释放剩余以色列人质等问题。根据提议草案 ...

Group 1 - Ukraine proposed to purchase $100 billion worth of U.S. weapons in exchange for security guarantees during a meeting with U.S. President Trump [3][9] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index reach a nearly 10-year high, surpassing 1 trillion yuan in total market capitalization [3][10] - The Chinese government is taking measures to stimulate consumer spending and stabilize the real estate market [10] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.08% and the Nasdaq slightly up by 0.01% [4] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.37%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.65%, with significant gains in the film and internet healthcare sectors [4] - The A-share market experienced a surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.85% and the ChiNext Index up 2.84%, driven by strong performance in computing power and AI-related stocks [5]

伊曼纽尔认为，此次市场可能也大失所望：鲍威尔可能间接暗示9月17日将降息25个基点，但强调50个基点不在 选项中，且10月或12月是否降息仍取决于数据。 受企业盈利表现亮眼及市场对美联储即将重启降息的期待支撑，美股逼近历史高位。 投资者正热切期盼美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的演讲能释放足够鸽派的信号。但Evercore ISI首 席股票与量化策略师朱利安·伊曼纽尔（Julian Emanuel）表示，这种期待存在落空的风险，而这可能给股市带来 危险。 在上周日发布的报告中，他称鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话是一个巨大的风险事件，因美联储的双重使命均陷入混 乱。 他表示，上周公布的消费者和生产者价格数据"重燃了关于通胀粘性的争论"。尽管初请失业金人数保持低位，但 8月初发布的非农就业报告显示，三个月平均新增就业人数为2010年以来最弱——当时失业率为9%。 伊曼纽尔指出，问题在于，在这种背景下，股市却持续走高，导致标普500指数的动态市盈率升至25.5倍，"处于 2000年以来的最高水平区间，且即将进入秋季这一季节性疲软期"。 一些市场参与者会想起鲍威尔2022年在杰克逊霍尔的讲话——伊曼纽尔指出，当时这 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 佛州调查路线 戴维斯呼吁法官基尼奥内斯在特朗普支持率较高的圣卢西港召开特别大陪审团，调查从2016年大选开始 以，延续至2022年FBI搜查海湖庄园的"民主党阴谋"。 基尼奥内斯是佛州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）任命的前联邦检察官和空军预备役军官，但媒体 报道称其绩效考核不佳。司法部对此未置评。 若将海湖庄园搜查视为长达十年的阴谋，检方可绕过"剥夺权利"罪名的五年追诉期。然而，多名前官员 强调搜查是依法进行，因特朗普拒绝归还机密文件。一名前司法部高官称戴维斯的要求"简直离谱"。 三年来，美国共和党律师迈克·戴维斯（Mike Davis）一直推动对希拉里·克林顿、巴拉克·奥巴马、乔·拜 登，以及联邦调查局（FBI）、中央情报局（CIA）和司法部高官展开联邦刑事调查。 如今，总检察长帕姆·邦迪（Pam Bondi）批准的一系列新调查让他认为，目标即将实现。 本月，邦迪批准了对纽约州总检察长利蒂希娅·詹姆斯（Letitia James）的两起联邦刑事调查，以及对加 州参议员亚当·希夫（Adam Schiff）的一项调查。 她还要求一名检察官 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has reduced expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September following concerning Producer Price Index (PPI) data, but traders remain overly optimistic about the speed and scale of the Federal Reserve's easing plans [1] - Tim Duy, Chief Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, predicts a "chaotic insurance cut" in September, but Powell is unlikely to commit to further cuts, linking policy to subsequent data which introduces uncertainty for fixed income markets [1][2] - Current market pricing indicates three rate cuts this year, totaling 100 basis points over the next 12 months [1] Group 2 - Duy emphasizes that the September rate cut is not guaranteed and is contingent on upcoming data, which may frustrate market participants [2] - He notes that consumer resilience and strong retail sales data contrast with persistent inflation, which could hinder rate cuts; the median forecast for inflation in Q4 2025 is 3% [2][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to be 3.1% year-on-year in Q4, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 3 - The median forecast for the unemployment rate in Q4 is 4.4%, lower than previous estimates, indicating a potential shift in labor market dynamics [4] - Duy suggests that the dual mandate of the Fed complicates the likelihood of rate cuts, leading to hesitance among some board members, predicting only two cuts this year [4] - Since June of last year, the outlook for the Fed's dual mandate has deteriorated [6] Group 4 - Powell is expected to defend the Fed's independence in an upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, maintaining cautious language regarding monetary policy [6]

看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 EH 2025 08-18 15:43 6 期市动态雷达 数据透视线索 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中36个合约上涨,41个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的空头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在下跌品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% 涨幅居前的品种： 碳酸锂2511(+4.67%)、棕榈油2601(+1.89%)、多晶 ● 硅2511(+1.71%)、菜籽2509(+1.68%)、中证1000 2509(+1.58%)。这 些品种受供需影响显着。 跌幅居前的品种： 焦煤2601(-2.94%)、鸡蛋2510(-2.51%)、焦炭 2601(-1.56%)、纯碱2601(-1.56%)、甲醇2601(-1.40%)，可能受空头 力量增强或基本面利空影响。 20 15 10 5 0 . -10 资金流入最多的品种： 中证1000 2509(17.93亿元)、沪深300 2509(9.07亿元)、上证50 2509(7.43亿元)，这些品种吸引了大量主力 资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种:中证500 2509(-8.71亿元 ...

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant increase, with the main contract closing up 4.67% at 89,240 yuan/ton, reaching a peak of over 90,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high [1][3] - The spot market mirrored this trend, with battery-grade lithium carbonate index prices rising to 84,794 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,069 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1][3] - Concerns over supply disruptions due to regulatory issues affecting lithium salt production in Qinghai and uncertainties in production from Jiangxi have heightened market anxiety [3][4] Group 2 - The average lithium oxide grade in Jiangxi's lithium mica mines is only 0.2%-0.5%, while the new mineral resources law requires a grade of 20.4% for independent registration as lithium mines, leading to potential production halts [4] - Eight mining companies in Yichun are required to complete resource verification reports by September 30, with risks of production stoppages until mining rights are officially changed to lithium mines [4] - Despite high inventory levels, there are signs of a marginal shift in supply-demand dynamics, with weekly supply slightly increasing and downstream retail sales rising, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [5][6] Group 3 - The market remains cautious due to the ongoing approval processes for mining rights in Yichun, which could increase compliance costs and affect price stability [6] - Current lithium resource production halts have not significantly altered the overall supply-demand surplus, and refineries still hold 1-2 months of raw material inventory, limiting short-term supply impacts [6] - The trading logic in the lithium carbonate market has shifted towards macro narratives and expectations surrounding mining rights events, with a focus on the critical deadline at the end of September [6]