Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a mixed trend with prices rising due to tight supply and weak demand, influenced by macroeconomic factors and recent central bank signals [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Tin prices increased by 1.22%, reaching 269,570 yuan/ton, driven by a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, improving macro sentiment [1]. - Tin ore supply recovery remains sluggish, with July imports at low levels due to the rainy season in Myanmar and transportation delays in Africa, impacting production [1]. - July saw a slight increase in tin ingot imports in China, primarily due to inventory sales from Chile's Minsur company, but overall imports remain significantly lower than the fourth quarter of the previous year [1]. - The current state of supply and demand is weak, with slow recovery in tin ore supply expected as mining in Myanmar gradually resumes [1]. - Demand is also weak, particularly in the home appliance sector, with a decline in production and reduced orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China [1]. Market Outlook - New Lake Futures commented that there are no signs of improvement in major terminal markets, with the photovoltaic market cooling down after a surge, and other markets showing no significant changes [2]. - Supply conditions remain stable, with smelters operating at low production levels due to ongoing tightness in tin ore supply [2]. - Domestic inventory levels have decreased but remain high overall, while overseas inventories are extremely low, indicating a potential imbalance [2]. - The short-term fundamentals are unlikely to provide strong support for tin prices, which are expected to continue fluctuating [2].

Core Insights - In July, China's tin ore imports amounted to 10,200 tons (approximately 4,335 metal tons), showing a month-on-month decrease of 13.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.79% [2] - From January to July, the cumulative import volume reached 72,400 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.32% [2] - The decline in imports from Africa (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria) is attributed to extended transportation cycles and geopolitical disruptions related to stalled electricity agreement negotiations in the DRC [2] - Myanmar's imports remain sluggish due to seasonal rains hindering production resumption, despite mining license approvals, compounded by Thailand's ban on overland transport [2] - The decline in resource grades from Australia is limiting export potential [2]

Group 1 - In July, China's tin ingot imports reached 2,167 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 21.33% and a year-on-year increase of 157.98%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 13,461 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 62.34% [2] - The primary reason for the increase in imports is the sale of stocks by Minsur in Peru, which accounted for 58% (1,251 tons) of the total imports. Additionally, orders locked in during the brief arbitrage window in May and June were concentrated in July [2] - In July, China's tin ingot exports totaled 1,673 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. There is a notable regional divergence in exports, with reductions to India, the Netherlands, and Taiwan, while new exports to Japan, Vietnam, and the UAE indicate a trend of shifting Southeast Asian electronic supply chains [2]

8月25日（星期一）因适逢英国夏季银行假日，LME市场休市，8月26日（星期二）恢复交易。 （文华综合） ...

Group 1 - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has lowered its copper production target for the year to 1.34-1.37 million tons from the previous target of 1.37-1.40 million tons announced in March [1] - The company's copper production in the first half of the year increased by 9.3% year-on-year to 634,000 tons [1] - The company's pre-tax profit for the first half of the year decreased by 34% year-on-year to $429 million [1] Group 2 - In 2023, Codelco's copper output is expected to reach its lowest level in 25 years due to factors such as aging mines and delays in major expansion projects [1] - Operations at the El Teniente copper mine were suspended following an accident on July 31 [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, supported by strong demand from China and hints of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] - As of August 22, LME three-month copper closed at $9,796.50 per ton, up $72 or 0.74%, with an intraday high of $9,813.50 [1][2] - Despite the recent increase, copper prices remain below the three-month high of $10,020.50 reached on July 2 [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a possible interest rate cut in September, citing risks to employment growth and the need for policy adjustments [5] - Powell's comments led to a decline in the US dollar index, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to buyers using other currencies [5] - Strong demand for copper is expected to continue, with analysts noting that the refined copper is not subject to recent tariffs, thus not significantly impacting overall demand [6] Group 3 - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, has lowered its copper output target for the year to 1.34-1.37 million tons from a previous target of 1.37-1.40 million tons [6] - LME three-month aluminum also saw an increase, closing at $2,624.50 per ton, up $39.50 or 1.53%, driven by expectations of seasonal demand recovery [2][6]

Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - LME copper inventory decreased to 155,975 tons, a decline of 1.07% from the previous day [1][3] - Registered warehouse receipts for copper increased by 10.35% to 12,525 tons, while canceled receipts rose by 8.03% to 7,926 tons [1][3] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - LME aluminum inventory fell to 478,725 tons, a decrease of 0.00% from the previous day [1][5] - Registered warehouse receipts for aluminum decreased by 5.69% to 13,250 tons, with canceled receipts at 2.77% [1][5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - LME zinc inventory dropped to 68,075 tons, a decline of 2.56% [1][9] - Registered warehouse receipts for zinc decreased by 0.76% to 26,250 tons, while canceled receipts accounted for 38.56% [1][9] Group 4: Tin Inventory Changes - LME tin inventory increased to 1,785 tons, an increase of 2.74% [1][11] - Registered warehouse receipts for tin rose to 100 tons, with canceled receipts at 5.60% [1][11] Group 5: Nickel Inventory Changes - LME nickel inventory rose to 209,748 tons, an increase of 0.06% [1][13] - Registered warehouse receipts for nickel increased to 7,998 tons, with canceled receipts at 3.81% [1][13]

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with the main contract down by 0.64% to 265,930 CNY/ton, amid tight supply conditions and low processing fees from smelters. The supply situation is expected to gradually improve as Myanmar's tin mines resume production, leading to a weak short-term price outlook and a wide fluctuation pattern in tin prices [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tin ore supply remains tight, with low import levels. In July, domestic tin ore imports were 10,200 tons (approximately 4,335 metal tons), down 13.71% month-on-month and 31.79% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to July totaled 72,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.32% [1]. - Imports from Africa, particularly the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria, have declined due to extended transportation cycles and geopolitical disruptions. Myanmar's imports remain low due to rainy season hindrances and transportation bans from Thailand, making short-term supply improvements unlikely [1]. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Recent spot prices for tin have slightly decreased, with smelters maintaining a strong pricing stance but limited actual transactions. Traders are actively quoting prices, and there is a slight recovery in market activity as downstream buyers show increased interest in replenishing inventories [1]. - The tin market continues to exhibit weak supply and demand dynamics, with traders adjusting to market conditions. Downstream orders are on a downward trend, influenced by seasonal demand weakness in the electronics sector and declining solar energy orders [1]. Future Market Outlook - The future market outlook suggests that supply-demand contradictions are becoming less pronounced, with tin prices expected to follow macroeconomic trends and market sentiment. The tight supply of tin ore and scrap remains unchanged, supported by low LME inventories, but weak consumption and high domestic inventories limit upward price momentum [2]. - Short-term price movements are anticipated to remain within a narrow range, with integer resistance levels intact. Market participants are advised to monitor the impact of Powell's speech on interest rate expectations [2].

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 251,000 tons for the first half of 2025, down from a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper production for the first half of 2025 is projected to be 14.212 million tons, an increase from 13.716 million tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper consumption for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach 13.960 million tons, up from 13.321 million tons in the same period last year [1] Production and Consumption Data - In June 2025, global refined copper production was 2.431 million tons, while consumption was 2.395 million tons [2] - The global copper mine production for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 11.438 million tons, compared to 11.134 million tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - The global refined copper production capacity utilization rate is projected to be 79% for the first half of 2025 [2] Inventory and Supply-Demand Balance - The global refined copper ending inventory is expected to be 1.310 million tons by the end of 2025 [2] - The adjusted refined copper supply-demand balance indicates a surplus of 248,000 tons for the first half of 2025 [2] - The inventory change during the period shows a decrease of 88,000 tons for the first half of 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices remained stable as the market awaited signals regarding U.S. interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with a slight increase in copper prices noted [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 21, LME three-month copper rose by $4, or 0.04%, closing at $9,724.50 per ton, after hitting a low of $9,670.50 on August 20, the lowest since August 7 [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $8.50 (0.33%) to $2,585.00, while three-month zinc, lead, tin, and nickel experienced declines [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicated a recovery in U.S. manufacturing, with August business activity accelerating and order growth reaching the strongest level in 18 months, while the Eurozone saw its first manufacturing expansion in over three years [4]. - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month has slightly decreased, providing support for the U.S. dollar, which in turn makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, announced a reduction in its 2025 production forecast by 33,000 tons due to an accident at its El Teniente mine, which is expected to impact overall copper supply [4]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global copper market surplus of 251,000 tons for the first half of 2025, down from a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period last year, with refined copper production increasing to 14.21 million tons from 13.72 million tons year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates that increased defense spending in the European Union will significantly boost industrial metal demand, projecting upward price risks for copper in 2026 and 2027, with expected prices of $10,000 and $10,750 per ton, respectively [5].