Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds is slowing down, indicating that the year is nearing its end for bond issuance activities [2] Group 1: Issuance Trends - The current pace of local government bond issuance has significantly decreased compared to previous periods, suggesting a potential end to the issuance cycle for this year [2] - As of now, the total issuance for the year is approaching completion, reflecting a trend of reduced activity in the market [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The slowdown in bond issuance may have implications for liquidity in the market, affecting both investors and issuers [2] - This trend could signal a shift in fiscal policy or economic conditions that warrant closer monitoring by market participants [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the benefits of participating in government bond reverse repos as a short-term investment strategy, especially during the holiday season, highlighting their safety and potential returns [3][9]. Summary by Sections Government Bond Reverse Repo Overview - Government bond reverse repos are essentially short-term loans where individuals lend their funds to earn fixed interest, with government bonds used as collateral by the borrower [3]. - The safety of government bond reverse repos is considered equivalent to that of government bonds themselves [3]. Year-End Holiday Trading Schedule - The trading schedule for the New Year 2026 indicates that the A-shares market will be closed from January 1 to January 3, 2026, reopening on January 5, 2026 [2]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect will also be unavailable during the same period, with services resuming on January 5, 2026 [2]. Investment Strategy for Year-End - Investors are encouraged to take advantage of the higher interest rates typically seen in government bond reverse repos around month-end, quarter-end, and year-end [3]. - The minimum investment threshold for participating in government bond reverse repos is set at 1,000 yuan [7]. Interest Calculation and Options - The interest calculation for government bond reverse repos is based on the actual number of days the funds are occupied, from the first settlement date to the maturity date [4]. - A detailed table outlines various investment options, including different terms and corresponding interest days, allowing investors to choose based on their needs [5][8]. Specific Investment Products - The article introduces specific products like Baolixin and Baoliyuan, which are part of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's quoted repo business, allowing investors to use eligible assets as collateral for financing [9]. - These products offer various terms and interest rates, providing flexibility for investors looking to optimize their returns during the holiday period [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current PE valuation (TTM) for the food and beverage and non-bank financial sectors is below the 20% percentile level of the past decade, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1][6]. Valuation Historical Percentile Levels - The PE valuations (TTM) for major indices are relatively high, with the following percentile levels: - CSI 500: 82.43% - CSI 300: 84.36% - SSE 50: 86.91% - SZSE Component Index: 88.11% - SSE Composite Index: 96.05% - STAR 50: 96.69% - CSI A100: 100.00% - The food and beverage sector has a PE valuation (TTM) at the 10.99% percentile, while the non-bank financial sector is at 13.19% [6][11]. - Other sectors such as steel, defense, light industry, building materials, coal, communication, electronics, computers, real estate, and retail have PE valuations at the 80.70% to 99.96% percentile levels, indicating higher investment risks [6][11]. Market Overview - The total market capitalization for the Shanghai market is approximately 647,034.05 billion, with an average PE ratio of 16.28 [18]. - The total market capitalization for the Shenzhen market is approximately 606,435.34 billion, with an average PE ratio of 31.72 [24]. Industry Valuation Levels - The PE valuation levels for various industries are as follows: - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: 14.95 - Basic Chemicals: 12.52 - Steel: 5.69 - Non-ferrous Metals: 12.53 - Electronics: 20.00 - Food and Beverage: 16.52 - Real Estate: 6.80 - Non-bank Financial: 10.80 [30][36]. Industry PB Valuation Levels - The PB valuation levels for various industries are as follows: - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: 2.02 - Basic Chemicals: 1.41 - Steel: 0.73 - Non-ferrous Metals: 1.68 - Electronics: 1.92 - Food and Beverage: 3.32 - Real Estate: 0.54 - Non-bank Financial: 0.91 [35][41].

Market Overview - The market is entering the year-end closing phase, with expectations of reduced trading volume and volatility before the New Year holiday [1] - Historical trends indicate that trading volume tends to decline as holidays approach, with Monday's trading volume already lower than the previous Friday [1] - There is optimism for the upcoming year as it marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is contributing to recent market strength [1] Market Performance - On Monday, the two markets showed mixed performance with reduced trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher but experienced fluctuations, closing above the 5-day moving average [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index adjusted, finding support at its 5-day moving average during intraday lows [1] - Total trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous Friday [1] Sector Focus - Market hotspots were primarily in high-dividend sectors such as military and banking [1] - The large-cap blue-chip style experienced a slightly larger decline [1] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has formed a small double bottom pattern and is attempting to rise above the neckline [1] - The index experienced downward adjustments in late November and mid-December, with similar stopping points, indicating a "double bottom" formation [1] - Currently, the index is gradually pushing upward while relying on the 5-day moving average, necessitating close attention to technical resistance at previous highs and support from lower moving averages [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved an eight-day winning streak, with a weekly increase of 1.88%, indicating a "steady rise" trend [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index performed better, with weekly gains of 3.55% and 3.90% respectively [2] - The Wande Commercial Aerospace Index surged by 8.36%, marking its largest weekly gain in the second half of the year [2] - The overall market sentiment showed improvement, with increased trading volumes, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [4] Equity Market - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly increased to 1.95 trillion yuan, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday [4] - Growth style stocks outperformed value style stocks, suggesting a shift in market preference [4] - The market is showing signs of breaking out of the consolidation phase, with a need to closely monitor changes in trading volume [4] Bond Market - The bond market showed a recovery, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds strengthening, supported by a balanced funding environment [2][29] - The central bank's measures have maintained liquidity, alleviating initial concerns about market adjustments [5] - A cautious approach is recommended for long-term bonds due to supply pressures, with a focus on short to medium-term bond strategies [5] Commodity Market - COMEX gold prices continued to rise, reaching new highs, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions [2] - The South China Commodity Index increased by 4.00%, with significant gains in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [33] - The outlook for gold remains positive in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as central bank purchases and limited supply capacity [6] Overseas Market - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs, supported by strong economic data [2] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 was reported at an annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations, which has led to a slight reduction in interest rate cut expectations [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider diversified overseas investments through QDII funds, balancing asset classes and regional exposures [7]

申门宏源证券 星期一 12月 20 - 2025 - Electronic 今日申 ... 今日上。 今日中签缴... 今日无新股新债 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本内容不构成任何投资建议。投 资者不应以该等信息取代其独立判断或仅根据该等信息做出 决策。申万宏源对这些信息的准确性或完整性不作保证，亦 不对因使用该等信息而引发或可能引游览损练看跟最后了 免责声明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in COMEX silver prices, reaching a historical high, and analyzes the factors contributing to this increase [2] Group 1: Market Trends - COMEX silver has recently hit a record high, indicating strong demand and market interest [2] - The price of silver has shown significant volatility, reflecting broader economic conditions and investor sentiment [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Increased industrial demand and investment in precious metals are key drivers behind the rising silver prices [2] - Global economic uncertainties and inflation concerns have led investors to seek safe-haven assets like silver [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upward trend in silver prices may continue if current economic conditions persist [2] - The potential for further price increases is linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions and market dynamics [2]

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】周度研究成果（12.22-12.28) 原创 阅读全文 ...

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】沪深300隐含波动率低位回升——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251219-20251226) 原创 阅读全文 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that after the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, global capital markets experienced a rebound, with A-shares showing strong performance and continuous increases over five trading days [1] - Investors are optimistic about the strategy to expand domestic demand and are looking forward to the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Despite the Hong Kong market being affected by the Christmas holiday and the suspension of northbound capital trading, A-share trading volume increased, indicating a rise in both volume and price [1] Group 2 - The market saw a continuous rebound last week, with increased trading volume; the Shanghai Composite Index maintained above the 60-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index approached its yearly high [1] - The average daily trading volume of the two markets exceeded 19 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared to the previous week [1] - Key market hotspots last week were concentrated in the military, new energy, and TMT sectors, with small-cap and technology stocks experiencing larger gains [1] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index completed a small double bottom pattern and is attempting to move above the neckline; it had similar stop-loss positions during adjustments in late November and mid-December [1] - The continuous rebound last week surpassed the neckline of the double bottom pattern, indicating potential upward momentum [1] - Future attention should be paid to the technical pressure at previous high points and the support strength of the five-day moving average [1]