克而瑞地产研究
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土地周报 | 成交规模低位徘徊,宁波回购宅地完成降价再出让(8.18-8.24)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-26 09:36
Core Viewpoint - The land supply scale has significantly increased week-on-week, while transaction volume remains low, indicating a cooling in land auction enthusiasm [1]. Supply Summary - The total land supply area for the week is 4.87 million square meters, a 61% increase compared to the previous week [1]. - In first-tier cities, only Guangzhou added one residential land parcel, while Shanghai's new listings were all commercial and office land [1]. - Key cities supplied 50 residential land parcels with an average plot ratio of 1.82; cities like Nantong, Chongqing, and Wuxi had average plot ratios not exceeding 1.5 [1]. Transaction Summary - The total transaction area for the week is 2.8 million square meters, a 6% decrease week-on-week, with a total transaction value of 12.4 billion yuan, down 42% [3]. - The number of high-premium land transactions remains low, with only one low-density residential land in Hangzhou achieving a 14% premium [3]. - A land parcel in Ningbo's Jiangbei District was re-listed at a starting price of 19.3 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of approximately 3,700 yuan per square meter compared to its previous transaction price [3]. Key Land Parcels - In Chengdu's Chenghua District, a high-value commercial and residential land parcel was listed with a starting price of 2.1 billion yuan and a plot ratio of 3.0 [2]. - A residential land parcel in Zhengzhou's Zhengdong New District has a starting price of 1.52 billion yuan and a plot ratio of 1.5, located in a high-end residential area [3]. - The Hangzhou Xiasha unit land was sold for 490 million yuan after 13 rounds of bidding, with a plot ratio of 1.4 and an average floor price of 18,000 yuan per square meter [5].
土拍速递|北京顺义区低密宅地底价成交,懋源地产在中央别墅区再落一子
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-26 08:12
Core Viewpoint - Maoyuan Real Estate acquired a residential land parcel in Shunyi District, Beijing, for a base price of 1.03 billion yuan, marking a significant investment opportunity in a low-density residential area [3][5]. Summary by Sections Land Acquisition Details - The land parcel, located in Xue Daren Village, Shunyi District, has a total planned construction area of 37,000 square meters and a floor area ratio of 1.6. The starting price for the auction was set at 1.03 billion yuan, which was the final bid amount by Maoyuan Real Estate [5][9]. Market Context - Since 2020, only one residential land parcel has been sold within a 3-kilometer radius of the new acquisition. The adjacent land parcel was also acquired by Maoyuan Real Estate in June 2022 for 1.955 billion yuan, with a floor price of 33,600 yuan per square meter [6][9]. Competitive Landscape - The newly acquired land is situated in a high-end residential area with existing luxury developments. The average price of villas in the nearby Maoyuan Jingzhu project is around 7.4 million yuan per unit, indicating a strong market for high-end residential properties [10]. Demand Dynamics - Recent policy changes in Beijing have relaxed purchase restrictions for families in the outer ring, leading to a significant increase in high-value residential transactions. In the week following the policy change, transactions for new homes priced over 10 million yuan surged by 58% year-on-year [13][14]. Future Outlook - The central villa area, where the new land is located, is expected to attract high-net-worth families and those seeking improved living conditions. The average absorption period for similar high-value properties in the area is around 21 months, while the Maoyuan Jingzhu project has a notably shorter absorption period of 14 months [14].
中报点评|万科地产:业绩承压,彻底化解风险仍需“以时间换空间”
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-25 10:09
大股东累计提供238.8亿元借款支持,流动性依然承压。 ◎ 作者 / 房玲 核 心 观 点 【销售金额降幅是同梯队企业两倍以上,持续加大盘活库存力度】 2025年上半年万科实现合同销售金额691.1亿元,合同销售面积538.9万平方米,同比分 别下降45.7%、42.6%,全口径销售额降幅是TOP10房企(加权平均降幅为13.4%)中最高的,且是唯一一家高于20%的,销售承压明显。核心城市头部优 势稳固但范围缩小,销售金额在15个城市位列前三,比2024年全年少了11个。期内企业加大盘活旧库存以回笼现金,持续开展营销创新,推进降本增效。 【近三年盘活项目货值785亿元,库存去化仍是未来重点】 截至2025年8月22日,累计新增9个项目,计容建筑面积81.16万平米。2023 年以来,万科借助 政府各类支持性政策,通过商改住、规划条件优化、存量资源置换等多种方式持续推动难点项目解题,已累计盘活项目 64 个,涉及可售货值约 785 亿 元。期末万科存货账面价值4625.2亿元,较2024年底下降10.9%。其中,已完工开发产品(现房)1171.3亿元,占比25.3%,较2024年底继续增长了1.4个 百分点,现 ...
政策点评 | 上海825对比北京808:1年社保外环上车vs五环外不限购
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-25 10:09
上海限购放松+利率统一+税收优惠,调整覆盖面较北京更大 。 ◎ 文/杨科伟、马千里 25日,上海外环外住房限购政策再次调整,根据《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》,自2025 年8月26日起,符合条件的家庭(沪籍家庭、连续缴纳社保或个税满1年的非沪籍家庭)在外环外购买商 品住房不限套数,且成年单身视同家庭。同时,公积金贷款政策同步优化,提高贷款额度,支持公积 金"又提又贷"。调整商业性个人住房贷款利率定价机制,完善个人住房房产税政策为衔接优化住房限购 政策。这是继月初北京调整之后,上海政策调整整体符合市场预期,但力度相对北京又超过预期,对改 善当前外环外市场成交压力作用重大。 03 上海825对比北京808 1年社保外环上车vs五环外不限购 为便于纵览两城差异, 下文从限购政策、公积金政策、信贷税费等三个方面对两地本轮政策要点进行拆 解: 限购政策:上海对五环外社保要求更低 0 1 限购调整力度大于北京,房产税同步调整 扩大合规购房者基数刺激需求释放 近年来上海外环外新房供应集中,且未来仍为供地主力,限购调整后,部分高库存板块去化压力将有缓 解。外地社保年限规定为1年,比北京2年更进一步,力度大于市场预 ...
快评|上海刺激措施如期出台且力度大于预期
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-25 04:47
Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai's outer ring is expected to significantly alleviate the pressure on high inventory areas and stimulate demand, surpassing market expectations following similar changes in Beijing [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy allows eligible families (local residents and non-local residents with at least one year of social insurance or tax payments) to purchase an unlimited number of homes in the outer ring, while single adults are treated as families [4][5]. - The policy also includes a tax exemption for the first home purchased by non-local families and a deduction of 60 square meters for the second and subsequent homes [5]. Group 2: Financial Support Measures - The housing provident fund loan limits have been significantly increased, with the maximum loan for first-time buyers raised from 1.6 million to 1.84 million yuan, and for families with multiple children, it can go up to 2.16 million yuan [6]. - The new policy allows for the withdrawal of provident fund for down payments and supports the "withdraw and loan again" mechanism, which does not affect the loan limit calculation [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The adjustment of commercial housing loan interest rates will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, aiming to reduce the financial burden on homebuyers [7]. - The overall strategy of "strict control in core areas, relaxation in suburbs" is designed to alleviate inventory pressure, boost the economy, and support population dispersal and regional collaboration [7].
政策动态 | 中央部委发布重大地产税收利好,显著减轻新增投资的税收压力(8.18-8.24)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-25 03:23
Core Viewpoint - The recent policies from central and local governments aim to stabilize the real estate market and support new project construction through tax relief and urban renewal initiatives [1][2][3]. Central Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new policy allowing eligible real estate developers to apply for a 60% refund on newly accumulated VAT credits, significantly easing tax burdens for new projects [2]. - The State Council emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on high-quality new housing construction and urban renewal to stimulate demand [3]. Local Policies - Eight provinces and cities have released nine market stabilization policies, with a notable initiative in Hefei to assess and plan for the renovation of old residential communities built between 2001 and 2010 [4][5]. - Hefei's initiative aims to prioritize urgent renovations for severely deteriorated communities, enhancing living conditions and contributing to urban renewal efforts [5]. Policy Trends - The frequency of local market stabilization policies has decreased, with a continued focus on optimizing housing provident fund policies across several cities, including Beijing, Chengdu, and Guangzhou [6][9]. - Recent policies have primarily addressed housing security for struggling families, loan limit increases, and improved withdrawal methods for provident funds [10].
产品洞察 | 告别尴尬对视,四代宅的私密性不再将就
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-24 01:47
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative design of the fourth-generation residential properties, focusing on balancing openness and privacy in living spaces, particularly addressing the issue of visual interference between neighbors [5][21]. Group 1: Design Innovations - The fourth-generation residential properties have gained market attention due to advantages such as high usable area and innovative sky gardens, but they also face challenges related to privacy due to visual interference from neighbors [5]. - The Chongqing Haicheng Yunhu Jun project employs a unique vertical space planning strategy to resolve the issue of visual interference between floors by offsetting the terraces of odd and even floors and incorporating solid walls above the terraces [7][20]. - The Chongqing Longfor Yuhujing project introduces a "floating courtyard system" that optimizes traditional end-hall layouts, ensuring privacy while maintaining natural light through strategic design [14][17]. Group 2: Privacy Solutions - The design of the Chongqing Haicheng Yunhu Jun includes a central placement of odd-numbered floor terraces, which are shielded from neighbors by the master bedroom, while even-numbered terraces are surrounded by garden vegetation, providing a natural visual barrier [10]. - The Longfor Yuhujing project features a layout that allows for two-sided lighting while avoiding visual interference, with solid walls strategically placed to create visual blind spots for upper neighbors [17]. - The innovative practices of both projects demonstrate that privacy issues in fourth-generation residential designs can be effectively addressed through optimized layouts, appealing to customers with high privacy requirements [20][21].
每周精读 | “万亿”恒大落幕;宁波收储宅地降价3700元/㎡出让(8.16-8.23)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-23 01:32
Core Viewpoints - Evergrande's delisting continues to cause significant pain, with massive debts needing to be addressed, indicating that the societal impact is far from over [5] - The special bonds for urban village renovation have seen a year-on-year increase of 487%, driving a 33% overall growth in affordable housing projects [6] - In some second-tier cities, properties with over 100% usable area are still struggling to sell, highlighting the need for projects with multiple competitive advantages [7] Land Transactions - The land transaction scale remains low, with Shenzhen's Bao'an district setting a new record for land prices [9] - In the 33rd week, land supply increased slightly by 9% to 3.03 million square meters, while transaction area decreased by 6% to 2.97 million square meters [9] Policy Developments - The central government is enhancing the foundational financial systems for real estate, with multiple regions implementing new policies to strengthen supply-side management [10][11] - Cities like Hainan, Fuzhou, Yancheng, and Changsha County are rolling out comprehensive new policies to stabilize the market, focusing on revitalizing existing land and commercial conversions [11] Project Management - Greentown Management has expanded its project management fees to approximately 5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, while Xuhui Construction Management has initiated its first new national standard project in Dalian [12] Residential Design Trends - The fourth-generation residential design is focusing on balancing openness and privacy, addressing the need for improved living conditions [14] - The residential storage system is evolving from passive space configuration to actively providing solutions for daily living, reflecting a shift in consumer needs [16]
行业透视 | 上海哪类新房房价在逆势上涨
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-23 01:32
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that Shanghai's new housing prices have shown resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in July 2025, contrasting with a decline in other major cities. The analysis delves into the reasons behind this price increase, focusing on regional, sectoral, and project-level insights [2][22]. Group 1: Regional Analysis - In the first seven months of 2025, the sales price of new residential properties in Shanghai's first-tier cities decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while areas like Pudong and Baoshan saw price stability with slight increases of 22% and 2%, respectively [4][5]. - Areas such as Fengxian and Hongkou experienced significant price declines of up to 15%, while regions like Qingpu, Minhang, and Jinshan saw minor decreases of less than 5% [4][5]. - The overall market shows that most regions maintained price stability, with fluctuations generally within 5% [22]. Group 2: Sectoral Insights - Hotspot sectors such as Xuhui Longhua, Huangpu Yuyuan, and Pudong Caolu have significantly contributed to the price uplift in Shanghai, with Xuhui Longhua seeing over a 30% increase compared to 2024 [8][9]. - The Xuhui Longhua sector recorded a price increase of 34% year-on-year, while other sectors like Huangpu Yuyuan and Pudong Dazhong also showed strong performance [10]. Group 3: Project-Level Dynamics - High-end new projects and the continued sales of older luxury properties have supported the price increases in core areas. For instance, new launches in Xuhui Longhua and Pudong have maintained price increases of over 10% [12][13]. - Projects with transaction prices exceeding 100,000 yuan per square meter, such as Lujiazui Qiantan and Longsheng Huaxing New City, have also shown price increases of over 5% [13][15]. - Some peripheral projects in areas like Jinshan New Town and Pudong Lingang have managed to maintain price stability due to product advantages, attracting buyers from the first-time and upgrading markets [18][19]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The article anticipates that Shanghai's housing prices will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, influenced by factors such as increasing land costs and product upgrades. Core areas are expected to remain robust, while peripheral projects may find opportunities for price appreciation through product differentiation [22].
评司论企|恒大退市,阵痛未止
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-08-22 03:34
Core Viewpoint - China Evergrande Group's delisting from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks the end of its 16-year listing journey, highlighting the company's dramatic rise and fall in the real estate industry, culminating in a liquidity crisis and significant financial losses [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - China Evergrande was listed in 2009 with a market value exceeding HKD 700 billion, becoming the largest private real estate company in mainland China [2]. - The company achieved record sales in 2016 and its founder, Xu Jiayin, became the richest person in China in 2017 [2]. - By 2020, Evergrande announced plans to reduce debt and control its scale, but the situation deteriorated rapidly, leading to a liquidity crisis in 2021 [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Impact - As of June 2023, external investors held approximately 34% of China Evergrande's shares, with the stock price plummeting from around HKD 15 per share at the end of 2020 to HKD 0.163 before delisting, resulting in a market value of only HKD 21.52 billion [5][7]. - The company is now considered a "zombie stock," with little to no liquidity post-delisting, and shareholders face significant losses [7]. Group 3: Liquidation Process - The liquidation process is ongoing, with creditors claiming a total debt of approximately HKD 350 billion (USD 45 billion) as of July 31, 2025, while the assets under the liquidator's control are valued at around HKD 27 billion (USD 3.5 billion) [9]. - The liquidator has prioritized the monetization of Evergrande Property, which is seen as a crucial asset for creditors [9]. - Legal actions are being pursued against key figures in the company, including Xu Jiayin, to recover approximately USD 6 billion in misreported dividends and compensation [9]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The delisting of China Evergrande signifies a new phase of accelerated risk clearance in the real estate sector, with expectations of more companies facing delisting and liquidation [17]. - The ongoing financial distress of Evergrande and similar firms poses a broader risk to creditors, industry stakeholders, and homebuyers, indicating potential long-term impacts on the real estate market [17].