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行业透视|京沪深杭二手挂牌量降幅收窄,刚需抛压扩大,中改需求收缩
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-13 08:46
Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for the second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is expected to remain stable with a downward trend [21] Group 1: Market Trends - In May 2025, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 30 key cities decreased by 10% month-on-month, while year-on-year growth was marginal at 4%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [3] - The new listing volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou showed a high-level retreat in the second quarter of 2025, with May's month-on-month decline narrowing compared to April [3][4] - The proportion of listings priced between 1 million to 5 million yuan remains around 60%, with a notable increase in the 1 million to 3 million yuan segment in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou [5][8] Group 2: Listing Dynamics - The listing enthusiasm among high-end property owners in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has shown a steady decline, particularly in the 10 million to 30 million yuan price range, while Hangzhou has seen an increase in high-end listings [10][11] - The middle-tier market in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has experienced a significant drop in listing demand, with the proportion of listings priced between 6 million to 8 million yuan reaching a low for 2025 [15][17] - The overall market is characterized by a "growing pressure from first-time buyers, shrinking demand from mid-tier buyers, and a differentiated high-end market" [21]
评司论企|碧桂园能否完成自救?
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-12 09:25
Core Viewpoint - The market is not permanently bullish or bearish, and under policy support, it is trending positively. The key lies in adapting to the new normal and patiently waiting for recovery opportunities [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Country Garden announced the third extension of the restructuring support agreement deadline for qualified creditors, indicating ongoing challenges in debt restructuring [2]. - The company is under significant pressure from two fronts: ensuring home delivery and debt restructuring, which are critical for its survival [2]. Group 2: Home Delivery Efforts - Country Garden emphasized that home delivery remains its top priority, with over 600,000 homes delivered in 2023 and a target of 210,000 homes in 2025 [4][5]. - The company’s land reserve with pre-sale permits has decreased significantly, down 73% from 2022, indicating a tightening of available projects for delivery [4]. - The company plans to focus on home delivery in the first half of 2025, with a balanced approach in the second half to ensure operational stability [5]. Group 3: Debt Restructuring - Over 70% of holders have joined the offshore debt restructuring agreement, which could potentially reduce debt by $11 billion [6][11]. - The restructuring plan includes options such as cash buybacks and forced conversion of debt into equity, with varying recovery rates based on the chosen option [11][12]. - The company faces significant challenges, including a cash outflow situation and a substantial decline in sales, which fell by 73% year-on-year in 2024 [15]. Group 4: Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, Country Garden's cash and cash equivalents were at 29.9 billion yuan, with ongoing asset sales to meet obligations [5][15]. - The company reported a net loss, leading to a decline in total equity to 51.25 billion yuan, with negative equity of 7.2 billion yuan for the parent company [15][16]. - The company’s inventory value accounts for nearly 57% of total assets, with significant impairment losses recognized in recent years [16]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The management expresses confidence in navigating the current market challenges, emphasizing the importance of adapting to the new market normal and waiting for recovery opportunities [17].
Day5 | 2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围项目展示
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-12 09:25
| 日前,"2025上半年中国房企产品测评"全国入围项目正式进入项目展示阶段。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025上半年中国房企产品测评 | 工作启动于4月中下旬,收到 | 初选的入围项目已于6月3日揭晓。 | 企业及业内专家推选的优秀项目踊跃参评, | | | 详情请戳👇 | | | | | | 《2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围榜》 | | | | | | 2025上半年 | "全国十大高端/轻奢/品质作品""全国好房子综合奖"等 | 本次所有入围项目仍将采用专家评审和网络票选结合的评选方式,最终评出 | ,目前相关测评工作正在有序 | 进行中。 | | 点击图片查看入围项目详情 | | | | | | 高端入围项目 | | | | | | 武汉新希望·D10黑珍珠 | | | | | | 【顶奢上的极奢之作】 | · 一线临江传奇大宅 | 二七滨江 | 加冕长江 | | 开发企业:新希望地产 产品类型:高层住宅 建筑风格:现代 轻奢入围项目 重庆长嘉外滩|国瑞·长江赋 重庆两江四岸核心区,滨江创新四代宅 开发企业:国瑞阳光地产集团 产品类型 ...
Day4 | 2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围项目展示
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-11 10:09
Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Mid-Year China Real Estate Product Evaluation" has officially entered the project display phase, with the initial shortlisted projects announced on June 3. The evaluation will combine expert reviews and online voting to determine the top projects in various categories [1][12]. Group 1: Evaluation Process - The evaluation process started in late April and has received enthusiastic participation from enterprises and industry experts [1]. - The final awards will include categories such as "Top Ten High-End/Light Luxury/Quality Works" and "National Good House Comprehensive Award" [1]. Group 2: Shortlisted Projects - High-end shortlisted projects include "Hangzhou Hangxu Mansion" and "Kangjiang Qiantang" [1]. - Light luxury shortlisted projects feature "Shanghai Poly Haishangyin" and "Xi'an Boyue Wanjing" [4]. - Quality shortlisted projects include "Chengdu Zhonghuan Tianshen" and "Nanning Jiangnan Runfu" [7][8]. Group 3: Industry Focus - Since 2018, the industry has focused on changes in product strength, evolving from "product strength" to "product system" and "customer demand" research [12]. - The evaluation aims to promote valuable and replicable products and concepts within the industry, enhancing overall product strength [12].
法拍房月报|5月成交率回升、交易量新高,参拍者信心快速修复(2025年5月)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-11 10:09
Core Viewpoint - The domestic foreclosure housing market is experiencing a recovery in supply and demand indicators, with significant increases in transaction volume and a rise in premium transactions due to the ongoing stabilization policies in the real estate market and the easing of tariff agreements [3][8]. Supply Volume - In May, the newly listed foreclosure properties reached 25,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 18%, while the total starting price was 23.2 billion yuan, down 30% month-on-month [10][11]. - Chongqing continues to lead with over 1,000 units listed for six consecutive months, while cities like Chengdu, Wuhu, and Zhengzhou also saw significant listings [10]. Transaction Volume - The transaction volume in May surged to 4,679 units, marking a month-on-month increase of 276% and setting a new monthly high for 2025, with 69% of properties sold at a premium, up 3 percentage points from the previous month [5][14]. - The competitive bidding environment improved, with 7.7% of properties receiving over 100 bids, indicating a notable increase in transaction activity [14][17]. Transaction Rate - The national average transaction rate rose to 19%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, with cities like Ningbo, Shanghai, and Hangzhou exceeding 50% [6][21][24]. - The recovery in transaction rates is attributed to the easing of selling sentiment and improved buyer confidence [8][24]. Discount Rates - The average starting discount rate for listed foreclosure properties was 28.9%, up 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, while the average transaction discount rate was 32.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points [27][30]. - The narrowing gap between starting and transaction discount rates suggests a growing acceptance from buyers as sellers lower price thresholds, potentially leading to more completed transactions [27][30]. Market Outlook - The foreclosure housing market is expected to benefit from ongoing stabilization efforts in the real estate sector and rapid urban renewal initiatives, although a seasonal peak in primary housing transactions in June may affect foreclosure transaction volumes [9][8]. - The market is likely to attract more high-net-worth individuals and domestic and foreign investment institutions, particularly in cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Xiamen, which are expected to perform notably well in the second half of the year [9].
专题回顾 | “蓝海变红海”,头部代建企业立身之道
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-10 09:10
Group 1 - The construction agency industry is entering a phase of stable development, with a gradually stabilizing head enterprise structure after three years of rapid expansion [5][6][9] - The number of enterprises entering the construction agency sector has reached saturation, leading to a slowdown in growth momentum, with new construction scale in 2024 reaching 215 million square meters, a 13% year-on-year increase, but a significant drop in growth rate compared to 2023 [6][7] - The industry faces challenges from a sluggish macroeconomic environment, intensified competition, and policy uncertainties, impacting the demand for construction agency services [7][8] Group 2 - The construction agency sector is experiencing intensified competition, but the leading enterprises are maintaining their positions through unique core competencies and brand advantages [3][14] - The choice of construction agency enterprises by clients has evolved from "single service procurement" to "strategic ecosystem co-construction," emphasizing long-term partnerships and value co-creation [11][12] Group 3 - Greentown Management leads in scale, supported by a standardized system that enhances product reputation and brand premium [15][16] - Blue City Group has established significant advantages in niche areas, particularly in affordable housing and public construction, leveraging its brand and product capabilities [20][21] - Jindi Management has a robust project management system and a diverse client base, with a focus on high-quality customer structures and comprehensive service offerings [25][26] Group 4 - Runze Management, as a subsidiary of China Resources Land, has a strong presence in government construction projects, achieving a revenue of 1.18 billion yuan and managing an area of 7.607 million square meters [27][28] - The long-term strategy of construction agencies should focus on building core competencies and creating value through professional services, moving from a scale expansion model to a high-quality development model [35][36]
土地周报 | 成交规模环比骤降,温州连续两周拍出高溢价宅地(6.2-6.8)
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-10 09:10
2025年第23周 Weekly 2025年6月2日-2025年6月8日,第23周土地供求规模均环比回落,三四线城市溢价率水平延续高位。本 周重点城市监测供应建筑面积629万平方米,环比回落13%,成交建筑面积148万平方米,环比骤降 66%。本周一二线城市高溢价宅地成交比例维持低位,周度平均溢价率回落至1%,创农历新年以来新 低,不过三四线平均溢价率仍达到6.6%,连续两周超过5%,主要是由于温州瓯海区优质宅地溢价成交 带动。 供应:本周供应建筑面积629万平方米,环比回落13%。 本周重点城市供应含宅用地59幅,平均容积率为 2.0,合肥、武汉、宁波本周供应宅地平均容积率均不高于2.0。 重点供应地块方面,深圳龙华区区供应一幅宅地,出让底价16.84亿元,容积率2.8,起拍楼板价2.76万元/ 平方米。地块位于民治板块,自身优势为区位优越,地处梅林关核心区,距地铁4号线民乐站仅400米,周 边教育、公园、商业体配套较为丰富,无70/90户型限制,为纯商品住宅用地,目前周边新房售价在5.6万 元/平方米左右。 武汉长江新区挂牌一宗低密商住地块,容积率仅1.04,起拍底价21.6亿元,起拍楼板价5820元/平 ...
Day3 | 2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围项目展示
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-10 09:10
Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Mid-Year China Real Estate Product Evaluation" has officially entered the project display phase, with the initial shortlisted projects announced on June 3rd, following a vigorous selection process involving industry experts and enterprises [1][12]. Group 1: Evaluation Process - The evaluation will combine expert reviews and online voting to determine the final awards, including "Top Ten High-End/Light Luxury/Quality Works" and "National Good House Comprehensive Award" [1]. - The evaluation work is currently progressing in an orderly manner, with project details available for public viewing [1]. Group 2: Shortlisted Projects - High-end shortlisted projects include: - Shanghai Shilin Runyuan, featuring a traditional old city style [2]. - Hangzhou Jianfa | Qiantang Construction Yunqi Qianwan, characterized as a timeless riverside residence [2]. - Wuhan Jianfa · Wanghu, offering large residential units in a prime location [4]. - Light luxury shortlisted projects include: - Foshan Poly Jinlitao Yue, designed in a modern Chinese style [5]. - Zhongshan Poly Langyue, also featuring a modern Chinese architectural style [6]. - Quality shortlisted projects include: - Beijing Yuexiu · Future Science City, aimed at high-educated young professionals [7]. - Foshan Yuexiu · Xinghui Denghu, blending urban and park elements [8]. - Xiamen Jianfa · Yuehai, offering a seaside living experience [10]. Group 3: Industry Focus - Since 2018, the organization has focused on the evolution of product strength in the industry, transitioning from "product strength" to "product system" and "customer demand" research, aiming to promote continuous upgrades in industry product quality [11].
Day2 | 2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围项目展示
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-09 10:49
日前,"2025上半年中国房企产品测评"全国入围项目正式进入项目展示阶段。 2025上半年中国房企产品测评 工作启动于4月中下旬,收到 企业及业内专家推选的优秀项目踊跃参评, 初选的 入围项目已于6月3日揭晓。 详情请戳 《2025上半年中国房企产品测评入围榜》 本次所有入围项目仍将采用专家评审和网络票选结合的评选方式,最终评出 2025上半年 "全国十大高端/轻奢/品质 作品""全国好房子综合奖"等 ,目前相关测评工作正在有序进行中。 点击图片查看入围项目详情 高端入围项目 上海康定壹拾玖 梧桐浓荫下领馆花园 静安源贵,壹席藏 开发企业:招商蛇口、南通瑞城 轻奢入围项目 产品类型:高层住宅 建筑风格:现代 南京金陵序 自然与建筑共生,演绎金陵风华 开发企业:招商蛇口、北科建 产品类型:洋房、高层 建筑风格:现代 上海翡雲悦府 给上海,下一代的摩登, 内中环·新杨思都芯·低密墅区府 开发企业:华润置地、越秀地产、中能建 产品类型:高层住宅、叠墅 建筑风格:现代摩登 杭州沄璟文华轩 东方殿堂 世界久仰 艺术雅奢 开发企业:华润置地、浙江交控 产品类型:高层住宅 建筑风格:现代雅奢 宁波能建百誉府 誉府系宁波开篇 ...
专题回顾 | 2025年存量宅地清单透视:城市库存与收储分化下的破局路径
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-06-09 10:49
导语 各城市库存规模及开工进度显著分化,专项债收储仍需进一步细化落地。 ◎ 文 / 马千里 研究视点 2025年,房地产稳市场进入新阶段,在行业土地成交规模连续4年维持-20%负增长,宅地出让建筑面积已经低于新 房成交规模的大背景之下,行业正式进入了去库存新阶段。但是基于保证市场活力,保障符合好房子新规用地的出 让规模,宅地出让规模进一步下降的空间已经较小。因此加快行业库存盘活,更重要的还是依赖于库存收储。2025 年以来中央部委多次表态,将加快推进专项债收储,并出台了正式文件, 明确将存量闲置地块优先纳入收储计 划, 赋予地方政府在收购定价、用途上的自主权。 据CRIC监测,目前全国已经有313个城市发布了存量住宅用地规模(清单),对于各地主管部门厘清潜在库存规 模,加快闲置用地收储起到了良好的辅助决策作用。就行业研究角度而言,也为结构性研究各地库存压力提供了新 的视角。本文将深入剖析当前典型城市潜在库存规模及专项债收储进度,旨在为房地产市场的健康发展提供有价值 的参考。本文主要观点如下: 1,行业已进入去库存深水区,盘活存量用地愈加迫切。 近年来各地狭义库存去化周期已有明显改善,但"顽固"的 潜在库存仍在 ...