Core Viewpoint - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, with a potential continuation of weak recovery in Q2, particularly in hot cities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In Q1 2025, the overall real estate market stabilized, with total transaction area for new and second-hand homes reaching 82.04 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17% [3][5]. - New home transactions in 115 key cities remained flat compared to last year, with a total area of 51.31 million square meters [5]. - First-tier cities outperformed second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities showing a 26% year-on-year increase, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced an 8% decline [5][7]. Group 2: City-Specific Trends - Hot cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu saw stronger recovery in second-hand home markets compared to new homes [7]. - Cities such as Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan showed signs of weak recovery, with transaction levels returning to last year's figures [9]. - In contrast, cities like Hefei and Nanjing displayed insufficient growth momentum, with declining customer conversion rates [16][19]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - Strong product offerings, particularly new regulations for high-efficiency housing, have driven market interest, with new products achieving high sales rates [22][23]. - Well-developed infrastructure, such as transit-oriented developments and school districts, has become a key selling point for properties [27]. - Discounted pricing and strong marketing strategies for entry-level homes have contributed to increased sales volume [30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend into Q2 2025, with new home quality upgrades attracting second-hand home buyers [31][32]. - The average sales price of second-hand homes in core cities has increased, indicating a warming market that extends to first-time buyers [31].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with transaction volume increasing by 17% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in prices and market expectations [1][5][10]. Group 1: Transaction Trends - In Q1 2025, the total transaction area for both new and second-hand homes reached 82.04 million square meters, marking a 17% year-on-year increase, which is at the median level of the past six years [5]. - The year-on-year growth rate for second-hand homes outpaced that of new homes in most cities, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou seeing around 50% increases in second-hand transactions [6][8]. - The transaction volume for new homes in Shenzhen surged by 83% year-on-year, attributed to a low base from the previous year [6]. Group 2: Listing Trends - The growth rate of new listings for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 16% and 55% in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou saw declines of 11% and 19% [12][14]. - The proportion of listings for luxury homes priced over 10 million yuan has increased in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, while Shenzhen experienced a decline in high-end listings [15][20]. Group 3: Buyer Demand - The proportion of transactions for affordable housing remains above 50%, but the concentration has decreased, with higher demand for improved and luxury properties [23]. - The transaction share for properties priced between 5 million and 30 million yuan has increased, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards higher-value homes [23][31]. Group 4: Price Trends - Over 50% of second-hand housing communities in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have seen price increases, with Beijing reaching 46% [33]. - The bargaining space for second-hand homes in major cities has narrowed, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou all having less than 20% negotiation space [35][44]. - High-end properties are leading the price increases, with a significant portion of affordable housing also showing signs of price stabilization [44][45]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is transitioning from a "price-for-volume" strategy to a "volume-increase-price-stability" model, indicating a more active supply and demand dynamic [42]. - The concentration of transactions is shifting towards core urban areas, with notable increases in transaction volumes in key districts of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou [43].

2 0 2 5年1 - 4月中国房地产企业新增货值TOP1 0 0排行榜 2025年1-4月销售百强房企拿地集中度依然维持高位，销售TOP10房企新增货值占销售百强新增货量的69%，较2024年末 增加7个百分点，未来市场格局仍将集中于头部企业。 VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" ， 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究 成果，与各界探讨行业运行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 点击标题阅读全文 排行榜 2 0 2 5年1 - 4月中国房地产企业销售TOP1 0 0排行榜 4月新房成交环比回落，持平去年同期；百强房企4月业绩环比降低10.4%、同比降低8.7%。 观点 城投拿地锐减≠代建退潮，3 . 6亿㎡未开工土地潜藏机遇 城投公司长期来看仍将保持较高的代建需求，城投拿地的代建空间正处于探底回升的阶段。 沪深杭二手高改和豪宅成交量价齐增预示止跌回稳进程加快 当前热点城市京沪深杭二手房市场已逐步由此前"以价换量"过渡至当前"量增价稳"，二手房市场企稳回升态势初 显，短期来看沪深杭二手房市场还将延续震荡行情。 4月房地产类共计717亿元，湖南、厦门发行大额土储债 4月新增专项债总量环比降4 9 ...

热点城市沪深杭等供给约束愈发明显，供应基本进入"空窗期"，客观上限制了成交放量，不过因适销对 路楼盘入市，短期内市场热度有望延续。 ◎ 文 / 俞倩倩 5月供应同环比齐降重回阶段低位， 不同能级城市迎"普降"行情，沪深杭蓉等热点城市全面回调，供给约 束愈发显著。 从供给结构来看，重点城市刚需、改善、高端占比结构为37%、47%和16%，呈现出以改善为主，刚需为 辅的供应结构。 半数以上城市以主城为供应主力。 预判后市，我们认为，5月供给"缩量提质"预期成交延续弱复苏，新房成交大概率环比微增，同比持平。 结构：供应改善为主占比47% 半数以上城市以主城为供应主力 03 规模：5月28城供应同比降39%约束加剧 沪深蓉杭等全面回调 5月房企推盘积极性稳步回落，整体供给量较3月高点呈现出稳步回落态势，土地对新房供给约束日益显 著： 据CRIC调研，5月28个重点城市预计新增商品住宅供应面积567万平方米，环比下降36%，同比下跌 39%，前5月累计同比下降24%。 分能级来看， 一线稳步回调，单月同环比降幅均超4成，上海、深圳供应几近停滞，仅北京同比持平去 年。 据CRIC监测数据，5月一线预计供应面积达100万平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has shown resilience in transaction volume, with a notable increase in sales compared to new homes, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards second-hand properties due to limited new supply and a focus on asset preservation and appreciation [2][26]. Group 1: Transaction Volume and Price Segments - In the first quarter of 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 30 key cities increased by over 2% year-on-year, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou seeing growth rates exceeding 35% [2]. - The concentration of transactions in the low-price segment (under 500 million) remains high in Beijing, while other cities have seen a decline in concentration in this segment [4]. - The transaction volume in the price range of 500-3000 million has shown a steady increase in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, indicating strong demand for high-end properties [8]. Group 2: Area and Property Type Trends - The proportion of transactions for properties over 140 square meters has increased, reflecting strong demand for larger and luxury homes in the four cities [12]. - In the 70 square meters and below segment, Beijing has seen a decline in transaction share, while Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have shown an upward trend, driven by policy adjustments that stimulate demand from first-time buyers [16]. - Core urban areas are seeing an increase in transaction share, with notable activity in districts such as Haidian and Dongcheng in Beijing, and Nanshan and Futian in Shenzhen [21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The high-end and luxury segments in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are experiencing a "volume and price increase" trend, with properties in hot areas showing good appreciation potential [22][24]. - Approximately half of the first-time buyer communities have stabilized in terms of pricing, indicating a potential bottoming out of prices in these segments [25]. - The overall market is transitioning from a "price for volume" strategy to a "volume increase with stable prices," suggesting a gradual recovery in the second-hand housing market [26].

| | | | 衣: 甘肃市工馆目》〈农三月城市立五七吨成川排厅） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市 | 挂牌截止日期 ５月８日 | 地块数量 3 | 底价（亿元） 25.83 | 建面 (万㎡) 36.83 | 占地(万㎡) 14.73 | | | 5月19日 ５月 16日 | 3 1 | 18.45 13.23 | 20.06 12.02 | 8.91 4.81 | | | ５月７日 | 1 | 12.03 | 13.78 | 5.51 | | 西安 | | | | | | | | ５月 30 日 | 3 | 10.11 | 33.71 | 13.48 | | | ５月 29 日 | 1 | 4.47 | 4.52 | 2.05 | | | ５月 22 日 | 1 | 2.03 | 7.14 | 2.86 | | | 5 月 28 日 | 1 | 0.71 | 4.24 | 0.72 | | 上海 | ５月９日 | ব | 82.73 | 22.78 | 11.02 | | 杭州 | ５月 20 日 | 3 | 30.04 | 14.32 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The concentration of land acquisition among the top real estate companies remains high, with the top 10 companies accounting for 69% of the new land value among the top 100 companies, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, indicating a continued market focus on leading enterprises [1]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Data - In the first four months of 2025, the top 100 real estate companies in China had a total new land value of 830.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [21]. - The top 10 companies in land acquisition included Huahai Zhi Xin (64.22 billion yuan), Greentown China (64.20 billion yuan), and China Jinmao (60.87 billion yuan) [3][4]. - The average floor price for land transactions in April was 3,280 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 14% [14]. Group 2: Market Trends and Dynamics - The land market is experiencing significant differentiation, with first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities seeing rising transaction premiums, while third and fourth-tier cities are facing declines in both volume and price [26]. - The investment threshold for the top 100 companies in terms of new land value decreased by 7% year-on-year to 1.76 billion yuan, while the total price threshold increased by 26% year-on-year to 810 million yuan [17]. - The land acquisition to sales ratio for the top 100 companies stabilized at 0.30, reflecting a 0.13 increase from the end of 2024, driven by significant acquisitions from leading firms like China Jinmao and Greentown China [23]. Group 3: Investment Activity - The total investment amount for the top 100 companies in April increased by 42% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in investment activity among leading firms [20]. - The number of companies participating in bidding for high-quality land has increased, leading to intensified competition for prime locations [26]. - The overall investment enthusiasm among enterprises is showing signs of recovery, with all three key indicators (new land value, total price, and area) for the top 100 companies showing positive year-on-year growth [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the Chinese government's efforts to stabilize the real estate market through increased issuance of special bonds, particularly focusing on urban renewal and land reserve projects [2][6]. Group 1: Special Bonds Issuance - In April 2025, the total issuance of local government special bonds was 1,763 billion, a 49% decrease month-on-month, while special bonds directed towards real estate increased by 30% [6]. - Among the newly issued special bonds, 717 billion were allocated to real estate-related fields, accounting for 40% of the total, which is an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - The total issuance of special bonds from January to April reached 11 trillion, with 3,891 billion directed towards real estate, representing 35% of the total [6]. Group 2: Regional Contributions - Hunan, Shandong, and Xiamen contributed 74% of the real estate-related special bonds issued in April, totaling 531 billion [3][9]. - Hunan issued two large land reserve special bonds totaling 140 billion, with 38 billion allocated to Changsha [10][20]. - Shandong focused on promoting urban renewal and provided quality land supply, issuing 37 billion in special bonds for urban renewal projects [11]. Group 3: Land Reserve Bonds - Land reserve special bonds accounted for 60% of the special bonds primarily directed towards real estate in April [4][13]. - Of the 336 billion in special bonds explicitly directed towards real estate, 62% was used for land reserves, primarily from Hunan and Xiamen [15]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds from January to April totaled 517 billion, making up 31% of the total, while urban renewal bonds accounted for 65% with 1,070 billion issued [16]. Group 4: Specific Projects and Trends - In Hunan, only three land recovery projects were identified from the special bond issuance, totaling 4.65 billion, indicating a slow pace in land recovery efforts [20]. - The article highlights that the majority of the projects listed in the special bond details are still focused on primary land development rather than recovery [20].

导 读 ☉ 文／克而瑞研究中心 | | | | 2025年1-4月 ·中国房地产企业 | | 上最近 克面瑞·研究中心 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ** | | | 排名 | 企业简称 | 操盘金额 (17. J | 排名 | 企业简称 | 操盘面积 万平方米) | | 1 | 保利发展 | 806. 1 | 1 | 保利发展 | 394. 3 | | 2 | 母母中国 | 710. 2 | 2 | 绿城中国 | 310.2 | | 3 | 中海地产 | 631.9 | 3 | 万科地产 | 305. 6 | | 4 | 花海量地 | 616. 1 | 4 | 中海地产 | 298.5 | | 5 | 招商蛇口 | 473. 1 | 5 | 本润量用 | 262.6 | | 6 | 万科地产 | 428.5 | 6 | 招商蛇口 | 220.0 | | 7 | 建发房产 | 426.7 | 7 | 绿地控股 | 211.2 | | 8 | 华发股份 | 353. 1 | 8 | 龙湖集团 | 172.6 | | 9 | 越秀地产 | 31 ...

研究中心专题卡介绍 研究专题卡是克而瑞研究中心推出的一套系统化的房地产企业情报定制方案，旨在用专业的行业知识与精湛的 行业预判为房企预测走势、预警风险、提供借鉴。 每年为企业提供『宏观研究、市场研究、企业管控、项目借鉴、营销案例、产品案例、运营模式、企业深度、 企业融资及盈利模式』十大类、五十个专题的选择。 产品类型 服务形式 企业可根据自身需求从专题列表中选择适合专题打包组成定制专题卡，但全年累积不得超过会员自身等级规定数量。 2025年新增专题 点击 红色标题 阅读缩略版 专题 | 2025年地方供地计划探析：规模压降、结构优化与市场效应 2025年一季度推动行业去库存规模已达1亿平方米，2025年初土地市场的结构性回暖正在为行业复苏带来更多 信心。 专题 | 一季度小阳春特征解析和持续性展望 2025年一季度楼市企稳，热点城市回暖，二季度或延续弱复苏。 ※ 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展 望 总结与展望 | 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（上篇） 总结与展望 | 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（中篇） 总结与展望 | 2025年一季度中国房地产行业总结与展望（下篇） 专题 | ...