Core Insights - In July 2025, 18 key cities plan to auction 73 plots of residential land with a total starting price of 632 billion yuan [1] - Shanghai is the only city planning to auction land with a starting price exceeding 100 billion yuan this month [1] Summary by Categories Auction Details - Shanghai will auction 10 plots on July 24 with a total starting price of 233.22 billion yuan, covering a construction area of 48.58 million square meters and a land area of 22.15 million square meters [2] - Other cities like Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Shenzhen also have multiple plots scheduled for auction with varying starting prices and land areas [2] City-Specific Information - Hangzhou plans to auction 5 plots with a total starting price of 61.33 billion yuan [2] - Suzhou has 6 plots scheduled for auction with a total starting price of 80.95 billion yuan [2] - Shenzhen has several plots with starting prices ranging from 11.58 billion yuan to 19.06 billion yuan [2] Overall Market Implications - The total starting price of 632 billion yuan indicates a significant investment opportunity in the real estate sector across these key cities [1] - The concentration of high-value land auctions in cities like Shanghai suggests a competitive market environment [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The new housing transaction volume is expected to continue fluctuating at low levels in July, with a potential narrowing of the year-on-year decline due to a low base from last year, indicating a weak recovery trend [2][12]. Supply Overview - In July, the supply of new homes in 28 key cities decreased by 32% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year, reaching the second-lowest level of the year, with a total area of 5.13 million square meters [4][7]. - Among first-tier cities, Beijing is the only city showing significant supply, while Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all experienced notable reductions [4][5]. - In second-tier cities, over 80% of cities saw a month-on-month decline, with 20 out of 24 cities reporting decreases, and some cities like Qingdao and Xiamen facing drastic drops [5][6]. - The supply in third and fourth-tier cities continued to remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 37% [6][8]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is tilted towards improvement demand, with the proportions being 40% for basic needs, 45% for improvements, and 15% for high-end products [8][10]. - Major cities can be categorized based on their supply focus: cities like Kunming and Wuxi have over 60% of their supply as basic needs, while cities like Beijing and Chengdu focus more on improvement products [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The average absorption rate for expected projects in 28 key cities in July is projected to be 29%, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point [12]. - There is a notable divergence in market performance among cities, with hotspots like Beijing and Hangzhou maintaining strong demand due to robust purchasing power, while cities like Zhengzhou and Ningbo show signs of weak recovery [12][13].

2025年第26周 Weekly 2025年6月23日-2025年6月29日，第26周土地成交规模延续年内高位，平均溢价率也持续回升。本周重点 城市监测供应建筑面积482万平方米，环比增加62%；成交建筑面积627万平方米，环比上升2%，为二季度 以来周度新高。本周杭州拍出多宗优质宅地，周均溢价率9.1%，为5月份以来周度新高。本周杭州土拍 中，丁桥、运河新城、湘湖三宗地块溢价率均超过50%。 供应： 本周供应建筑面积482万平方米，环比再度增加62%，迎来年中的季节性上涨。 本周重点城市供应含宅 用58幅，平均容积率为1.96，南通、杭州、义乌本周供应宅地平均容积率均不高于2.0。 重点供应地块方面，本周上海迎来新一轮集中挂牌，宅地合计出让建面48.6万平方米，出让总底价233亿元。其 中 徐汇衡复风貌区、静安东斯文里、虹口北外滩三宗地块均处于内环内， 均为上海兼具成熟配套与历史底蕴 的顶豪板块稀缺宅地，静安、虹口地块起拍楼板价达到8万元/平方米，徐汇地块容积率1.3，起拍楼板价更是高 达16万元/平方米。鉴于近年来上海顶豪市场走出了独立行情，预计这些地块都将引起市场的激烈竞争。 本轮 上海起拍总价最高的地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of strategic collaboration between CRIC Group and China State Construction Investment Company, highlighting the current trends in the real estate market and the importance of data-driven insights for future developments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - CRIC Group Chairman Ding Zuoyu provided an in-depth analysis of the current real estate market trends, emphasizing the gradual recovery of market confidence due to ongoing "stabilizing market and expectations" policies from both central and local governments [1]. - The "517 New Policy" has significantly boosted market vitality, particularly in first-tier cities, although a clear market differentiation remains evident [1]. - Key phenomena discussed include the focus on core trends in the land market in Shanghai and nationwide, the linkage between first and second-hand housing markets, and the rise of improved housing products as mainstream offerings [1]. Group 2: Strategic Partnership - CRIC Group places high importance on its strategic partnership with China State Construction Investment Company, with ongoing efforts to deepen collaboration since the last visit to the company's headquarters [2]. - Both parties expressed a commitment to maintaining close communication regarding market information and enhancing cooperation in project and client research to explore new development paths in the real estate sector [2]. Group 3: Company Overview - CRIC, established in 2006, is a leading real estate big data application service provider in China, covering 400 cities and serving over 95% of the top 100 real estate companies [5]. - The company has developed a closed-loop of real estate big data, supported by platforms like CRIC and CAIC, and offers comprehensive solutions for government, enterprises, and homebuyers [5]. - Innovative products developed by CRIC include various systems for investment decision-making, data marketing, and urban rental and sales, providing critical decision-making support for numerous real estate firms [5].

导 读 预计下半年去库存和优化库存结构仍是行业主旋律，多数房企将维持审慎的投资策略，将销售回 款和现金流安全置于首要位置。 ☉ 文／克而瑞研究中心 | | | | 2025年1-6月 · 中国房地产企业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | No. of Days | - 地下 0 2 100 | | | | | | 新增土地价值 | | | 新增土地建面 | | 排名 | 企业名称 | (亿元) | 排名 | 企业名称 | (万平方米) | | 1 | 中海地产 | 506. 1 | 1 | 中海地产 | 256. 1 | | 2 | 保利发展 | 502. 2 | 2 | 绿城中国 | 224. 0 | | 3 | 绿城中国 | 443.0 | 3 | 保利发展 | 216. 2 | | 4 | 中国金茂 | 392. 1 | 4 | 建发房产 | 161.8 | | 5 | 建发房产 | 350. 2 | 5 | 邦泰集团 | 146. 1 | | 6 | 华润置城 | 347.6 | 6 | 招商蛇口 | 124. 3 | | 7 | 滨江 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the Chinese real estate industry, highlighting the need for policy optimization, market stabilization, and the evolving dynamics of supply and demand in various cities [6][19]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at maintaining market stability and optimizing support [7]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall performance of nearly half of the top 100 real estate companies showed year-on-year growth [6]. - The new housing transaction volume remained stable year-on-year, while the second-hand housing market showed signs of slowing down [7]. Group 2: Financing and Debt Management - Financing in the first half of 2025 decreased by 30% year-on-year, but successful corporate restructuring cases have boosted confidence [8]. - By the end of 2024, 84% of sample companies had reduced cash holdings compared to the beginning of the year, indicating increasing liquidity pressure [12]. - The industry is moving towards a more sustainable financing model, reducing reliance on debt-driven growth [14]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Inventory levels have reached a temporary low, with three types of cities facing severe supply constraints in the short term [8]. - The first half of 2025 saw a decrease in land auction volumes, which is expected to help reduce inventory and optimize structure [7]. - The implementation of new standards for "good houses" is shifting the market towards multi-dimensional value competition [7]. Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 17% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, indicating a recovery in market expectations [15]. - The demand for high-end and luxury properties is rebounding, while the prices for first-time buyers have stabilized [15]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer needs and preferences in the evolving real estate landscape [55][58]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article anticipates a continued weak recovery in the real estate market, with structural opportunities still present despite overall challenges [34][48]. - The focus for real estate companies will be on improving product quality and customer experience to adapt to changing market demands [45][82]. - The industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in 2025, with specific cities likely to lead this trend [21][69].

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market in China is stabilizing, with a notable performance from first-tier cities, while second and third-tier cities are experiencing increased differentiation in sales performance [9][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - In June 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 338.96 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [10][13]. - The cumulative sales turnover for the first half of 2025 reached 1,652.68 billion yuan, with the new housing transaction volume in 30 key cities totaling 10.34 million square meters, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [10][21]. Group 2: Company Performance - Nearly 60% of the top 100 real estate companies reported month-on-month growth in June, with 28 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 30%, including notable performers like China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, and China Jinmao [13][18]. - The sales threshold for the top 30 real estate companies increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 11.98 billion yuan, while other tiers saw slight decreases in their sales thresholds [17][18]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The expectation for July indicates that new housing transaction volumes may continue to fluctuate at low levels, but the year-on-year decline could narrow due to a low base from the previous year, suggesting a weak recovery trend [20][21]. - The differentiation between cities and projects is expected to persist, with core first and second-tier cities likely to maintain strong demand, particularly in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in 2025 is facing significant challenges, including financing difficulties and the need for debt restructuring among property companies, while the government is implementing more proactive fiscal policies to stabilize the market [1][2][3]. Financing and Debt Restructuring - Financing difficulties remain prominent, with property companies' financing in the first half of 2025 reaching 184.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [7]. - The approval of "white list" loans for real estate has increased, with 6.7 trillion approved by May 2025, indicating some marginal improvement in financing support [3][5]. - The cost of offshore bond financing for property companies in the first half of 2025 was 8.60%, while domestic bond financing costs decreased to 2.71% [9][10]. - The total debt maturity for property companies in 2025 is projected to be 532.7 billion, with the third quarter being a peak repayment period [14]. Government Policies and Market Stabilization - The government is maintaining a loose monetary policy and has proposed a special bond issuance of 4.4 trillion for local governments, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Urban renewal is a key focus for 2025, with significant progress in the renovation of old urban areas, with 5,679 projects initiated in the first four months [4][17]. - The government emphasizes the need for a new sustainable development model in the real estate sector, with urban renewal as a critical strategy [17]. Industry Outlook and Opportunities - The successful debt restructuring of companies like Xiexin and Jinke provides a model for other struggling firms, indicating a potential path for industry-wide risk mitigation [13][16]. - The ongoing urban renewal efforts are expected to create new opportunities for capable property companies, encouraging them to enhance housing quality and competitiveness [17].

Core Viewpoint - The second quarter's decline in premium rates does not overshadow the heat of quality residential land, and the supply of land is expected to continue optimizing and improving in the second half of the year [2][8]. Supply and Demand - The supply of land in June reached 52.53 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 9%, but a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. The transaction area was 45.7 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year, while the transaction amount was 157.3 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year [5][11][16]. - The average premium rate in June fell to 4.2%, with first and second-tier cities seeing significant declines, both around 5%, marking the lowest levels since 2025 [6][19]. - In terms of distribution, first and second-tier cities saw increases in transaction area by 108% and 33% respectively, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 15% decline [7]. Market Heat - The average premium rate for June was 4.2%, continuing its downward trend. The premium rates in first and second-tier cities dropped to around 5%, while third and fourth-tier cities fell by 1.3 percentage points to 2.7% [19][20]. - Despite the overall decline in premium rates, individual high-quality land parcels continue to attract high premiums, particularly in core cities like Shanghai and Chengdu, as well as in some third and fourth-tier cities [8][9]. Future Outlook - In the second half of 2025, local governments are expected to further implement "controlling quantity and improving quality" in the land market, which will support the reduction of real estate inventory [9][20]. - The completion of urban renewal projects in the first half of the year is anticipated to lead to an increase in the supply of quality core land parcels in the second half, contributing to a more stable transaction scale and improved supply-demand expectations [9][20]. Key Land Parcels - In June, several high-value land parcels were sold, with Shanghai and Beijing each having parcels with transaction values exceeding 5 billion yuan. The highest total price was for a parcel in Shanghai's Baoshan district, totaling 8.195 billion yuan with a premium rate of only 1.2% [24][26]. - The average floor price in the first-tier cities reached 3,443 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 27% [16].

Core Viewpoint - The overall real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and weak recovery in Q2 2025, with new home supply and demand both increasing month-on-month but decreasing year-on-year, indicating significant supply constraints [1][2][6]. Supply - In Q2 2025, new home supply increased month-on-month but decreased by 20% year-on-year, with significant supply constraints remaining [2][6]. - Only first-tier cities saw a notable increase in supply, while second and third-tier cities continued to experience low supply levels, with the largest declines in the latter [4][6]. - The supply situation varied by city, with hotspots like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou experiencing increased supply, while weaker second and third-tier cities like Foshan and Huizhou saw significant declines [6][7]. Transaction Volume - The real estate market showed a weak recovery in Q2 2025, with a slight month-on-month increase in new home transactions, but a year-on-year decline [7][10]. - First-tier cities maintained strong transaction volumes, with cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing positive year-on-year growth, while second and third-tier cities experienced mixed results [10][11]. - Overall, the transaction volume is expected to decline in Q3 compared to Q2, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to last year's low base [27]. Second-hand Transactions - In Q2 2025, second-hand home transactions remained high but showed a downward trend month-on-month, with cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an experiencing significant year-on-year growth [11][14]. - Some third-tier cities also saw substantial growth due to low base effects from the previous year, while others remained in a correction phase [14][15]. Housing Prices - New home prices in 70 cities showed a narrowing year-on-year decline, with first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen maintaining high prices, while third-tier cities experienced steady price corrections [15][16]. - The price dynamics are influenced by the introduction of high-quality new properties, which have stabilized and slightly increased prices in certain markets [15][16]. Inventory - As of May 2025, the inventory of new homes was 463 million square meters, showing a downward trend due to supply constraints and stable transaction volumes [18][21]. - The inventory turnover period is stabilizing at around 25 months, with first-tier cities showing a significant decrease in inventory risks [21][23]. Outlook - The supply is expected to decline in Q3 2025, with first-tier cities remaining the focus for new launches due to strong demand [25][26]. - The overall market is anticipated to continue its weak recovery, with significant differentiation between core first and second-tier cities and weaker third-tier cities [27].