早盘演绎"黑色星期五"！ 从虚拟币市场到大宗商品，从美股期指到亚太市场，1月30日早盘，全线杀跌。A股上证指数早盘一度跌去40 点，现货黄金一度跳水，日内跌幅一度扩大至4%，报5152.94美元/盎司，原油期货、铜等皆出现暴跌行情。 外围市场传来重大变数。第一，美国总统特朗普1月29日表示，他计划与伊朗进行对话，并称"希望"不动用武 力。此举可能降低了原油和国际金价上涨的驱动力；第二，美元指数大幅上涨；第三，美联储主席人选可能将 于北京时间今晚公布，市场对此不确定性亦心存忌惮。 全线崩跌 截至1月30日早盘10点左右，沪指、深证成指均跌超1%，创业板指跌0.1%，贵金属、锂矿、稀土永磁、光伏设 备等方向跌幅居前，沪深北三市下跌个股近3500只。有色板块震荡走低，南山铝业、铜陵有色、云南铜业、株 冶集团、中色股份、江西铜业、常铝股份等多股封跌停板。港股市场亦是全线杀跌，恒生指数大跌超1.5%。 与此同时，内盘碳酸锂、多晶硅主力合约跌超6%，铂主力合约一度跌幅扩大至9%，钯主力合约一度跌7%，沪 银、沪金跌超2%。LME铜价跌超1.5%，此前该交易所延迟开市。WTI和布伦特原油跌约1%。 从外围市场来看，美股期指 ...

随着港股地产板块异动飙升，公募旗下地产主题基金正迎来业绩拐点。 2026年开年以来，随着公募基金经理对化工板块的坚定看好，相当程度上释放出地产板块基本触底的微妙信 号。以张坤为代表的多位明星基金经理，自2025年末便开始密切跟踪地产拐点信号，部分连续下跌五年、被公 募持续抛售的地产股，在去年末突然跻身基金抱团标的行列，进一步印证了行业拐点将至的判断。 公募人士研判，在热门赛道大幅上行之后，处于估值底部的地产股有望迎来资金补涨切换的机会。 化工异动激活地产，产业链共振效应吸引公募基金 2026年开年，A股市场周期股属性凸显，化工板块持续获得基金经理的密集调研、加仓及研究覆盖。在化工板 块热度攀升的同时，与之强关联的地产板块，股价走势在近一个月内逐步回暖。 1月29日，港股地产板块迎来爆发行情，其中地产物业服务板块集体大涨3.46%，内房地产开发板块涨幅更是 高达10.44%。个股层面，碧桂园收盘上涨16.36%，贝壳公司上涨7.56%，合景泰富、融创中国、富力地产、龙 光集团的涨幅分别达到40%、29.13%、20.75%、18.66%。 泉果基金一位基金经理表示，房地产作为国民经济的重要支柱产业，其影响范围不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent actions taken by the Trump administration, including the declaration of a national emergency and military deployments in the Middle East, indicating heightened tensions with Cuba and Iran [1][3][7]. Group 1: U.S. Actions Against Cuba - On January 29, President Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency, threatening to impose tariffs on goods from countries supplying oil to Cuba [2][3]. - The U.S. government is reportedly seeking "insiders" within the Cuban government to potentially destabilize the regime by cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela, which is crucial for Cuba's economy [3][4]. - Trump has indicated that if Venezuela's oil supply is lost, Cuba will struggle to sustain itself, suggesting a direct link between U.S. actions in Venezuela and the Cuban economy [4]. Group 2: U.S.-Canada Trade Tensions - Trump accused Canada of unfair treatment regarding the certification of U.S. aircraft and threatened to impose a 50% tariff on all Canadian aircraft exports to the U.S. if the issue is not resolved [6][4]. - In response, the U.S. will suspend the certification of Bombardier's Global series and all Canadian-made aircraft until the certification of Gulfstream aircraft is fully resolved [5][6]. Group 3: U.S. Military Deployment in the Middle East - The U.S. is significantly increasing its military presence in the Middle East, deploying at least ten naval vessels, including six destroyers and an aircraft carrier, amid rising tensions with Iran [7][8]. - The USS Delbert D. Black, a guided-missile destroyer, has arrived in the region, and additional military assets, including HC-130J search and rescue aircraft, are being sent, indicating preparations for potential military action against Iran [7][8]. - Iran has announced military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, which may disrupt shipping activities, reflecting the escalating military readiness in the region [9][10].

借此提醒广大群众和游客，因冬季野生动物觅食困难，已多次在人类活动区域出现，请务必遵守安全提示，遇 到野生动物注意保持距离并及时报警，确保人身安全！ 1月30日，新疆富蕴县林业和草原局发布情况通报： 近日，新疆富蕴县可可托海镇塔拉特村区域发生滑雪游客被雪豹咬伤事件后，1月28日，该区域又有雪豹出 现，并闯入一牧民羊圈中咬死35只羊，咬伤5只。 为防止再次发生雪豹伤人伤畜事件，根据《新疆维吾尔自治区实施〈中华人民共和国野生动物保护法〉办法》 规定，富蕴县林业和草原局组织专业人员制订工作方案，根据雪豹习性，在牧民羊圈中安放诱捕笼，于1月29 日9时许将再次返回羊圈进食的雪豹捕获，并安全转运至富蕴县野生动物救助中心。 经专业人员初步检查判断，该雪豹同近日咬伤滑雪游客的雪豹为同一只，系两岁左右亚成体。据专家分析，该 年龄段雪豹冬季野外独立生存能力较弱，因山区积雪较厚，捕食困难遂靠近人类活动区域觅食。目前，该雪豹 健康状况良好，未发现伤病情况。富蕴县野生动物救助中心计划待天气转暖后，经科学评估，适时放归野外。 来源： 新疆富蕴县林业和草原局 责编： 王璐璐 校对： 冉燕青 百万用户都在看 利好突袭！马斯克，重大宣布！欧盟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of three commercial real estate REITs has been submitted and accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with an expected fundraising of 13.175 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: REITs Overview - The three REITs are: 1. Huatai Fuhua Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund 2. CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund 3. Huaan Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund [1][2]. - The total expected fundraising for these three REITs is 13.175 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Individual REIT Details - **Huatai Fuhua Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund**: - Projects include Dingbao Building and Dingbo Building, with an expected fundraising of 4.002 billion yuan. The project types are office and supporting commercial [2]. - **CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund**: - Projects include Zhengzhou Shanshan Outlets and Harbin Shanshan Outlets, with an expected fundraising of 7.470 billion yuan. The Zhengzhou project has a total construction area of approximately 112,000 square meters and a remaining land use period of about 30.68 years. The Harbin project has a total construction area of 130,600 square meters and a remaining land use period of about 27.14 years [3]. - **Huaan Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund**: - Projects include multiple Jinjiang hotels across various cities, with an expected fundraising of 1.703 billion yuan. The project type is hotels [4]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Context - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of developing commercial real estate REITs as a significant measure to revitalize existing assets and enhance direct financing in the capital market [4][5]. - The CSRC has drawn on global experiences to support the launch of commercial real estate REITs, aiming to better utilize their functions and support a new model for real estate development [5]. - Recent training sessions have been held in Beijing to interpret the policies surrounding commercial real estate REITs and to mobilize for the first batch of pilot applications [5].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to show significant growth, with all 16 firms that have disclosed their earnings forecasts reporting positive results, driven by a recovery in the capital market and increased business activities in wealth management, asset management, and investment trading [1][5]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Zhongtai Securities expects a net profit of 1.312 billion to 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 40% to 60% year-on-year, attributed to a rebound in market activity and growth in various business segments [2]. - Huazhong Securities reported a total revenue of 5.064 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.94%, with a net profit of 2.104 billion yuan, up 41.64%, due to enhanced core business efforts and market opportunities [3]. - Guosheng Securities anticipates a net profit of 210 million to 280 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.44% to 67.25%, driven by increased revenues in brokerage, investment banking, and futures brokerage [4]. - Founder Securities forecasts a net profit of 3.86 billion to 4.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 75% to 85%, primarily due to growth in wealth management and subsidiary business revenues [4]. Group 2: Major Firms' Performance - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 38.46%, maintaining steady growth despite a high base [6]. - Guotai Junan is expected to achieve a net profit of 27.533 billion to 28.006 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 111% to 115%, attributed to brand advantages and improved service systems post-merger [6]. - China Merchants Securities reported a net profit of 12.3 billion yuan, ranking third among the firms [7]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The securities industry is entering a golden period of dual recovery in valuation and performance, supported by a significant rebound in the capital market, with total trading volume exceeding 413.78 trillion yuan in 2025 [11]. - Analysts highlight three main pillars driving growth: resilience in traditional businesses, recovery in investment banking, and the transformation towards internationalization and wealth management [11]. - The current allocation of active funds in the non-bank sector remains significantly low, indicating potential for increased investment in the securities sector as market conditions improve [12].

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping over 5% and Ethereum, Dogecoin, and others falling more than 6% [1][2] - In the last 24 hours, 227,939 individuals were liquidated, resulting in a total liquidation amount of $1.014 billion (approximately 70.5 million RMB) [4] - Tether's CEO announced plans to allocate 10% to 15% of their investment portfolio into physical gold, indicating a shift in investment strategy [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Reaction - Gold and silver prices saw extreme volatility, with gold reaching a high of $5,600 per ounce before dropping to $5,105.83, marking a maximum decline of 5.7% [8] - Silver prices also fell from a historical high of $121.67 per ounce to $106.80, with a maximum drop of 8.5% [9] - Analysts suggest that the sharp decline in precious metals was driven by profit-taking after recent price highs [10] Group 3: Stock Market Impact - The U.S. stock market faced turbulence, with the Nasdaq Composite index plunging 2.6% at one point, ultimately closing down 0.72% [2][10] - Major tech stocks were affected, with Microsoft experiencing a nearly 12% drop due to concerns over slowing cloud business growth [11] - Other tech stocks showed mixed results, with Apple reporting better-than-expected earnings, leading to a slight increase in its stock price [12][13] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Trends - Bitcoin holders have entered a loss realization phase for the first time in 2023, indicating a decline in investor confidence [5] - Over the past week, investors withdrew more than $1.3 billion from Bitcoin-related funds, continuing a trend of capital outflow from cryptocurrency ETFs [5] - Analysts express skepticism about Bitcoin's status as a macro hedge, noting its performance lagging behind that of gold and silver [6]

Core Viewpoint - The four major state-owned banks in China have held meetings to outline their operational strategies for 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and risk management while aligning with national strategies and supporting domestic demand expansion [1][4]. Group 1: Business Focus and Strategy - Bank of China (BOC) highlighted the importance of global advantages, aiming to enhance global layout, product service capabilities, and compliance management [2]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) emphasized its commitment to serving rural areas and supporting comprehensive rural revitalization, focusing on credit allocation to key sectors such as agriculture and rural development [2]. - China Construction Bank (CCB) aims to strengthen collaboration across various banking sectors and enhance financial service adaptability, particularly in supporting national technological self-reliance [3]. Group 2: Support for National Strategy and Domestic Demand - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and ABC stressed the integration of investments in both physical and human capital, with a focus on expanding credit and bond investments to support domestic demand and innovation [4]. - CCB reiterated its commitment to supporting national strategies and expanding domestic demand while promoting sustainable development in financial services [4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Technology - All four banks emphasized the role of technology in risk prevention and management, with BOC focusing on credit risk control and proactive trend monitoring [5][6]. - ICBC plans to accelerate the implementation of an intelligent risk control platform to manage risks effectively across key sectors [6]. - ABC aims to mitigate credit risks in local government debt and real estate while maintaining high asset quality through enhanced technological resilience [6]. - CCB is focused on building a comprehensive and proactive risk control system to ensure early identification and management of risks [6].

据@CCTV国际时讯 消息，英国首相斯塔默1月29日在故宫表示，在华会谈取得了实质性成果，英中两国关系 得到了切实巩固。 斯塔默表示，中国是世界第二大经济体，蕴藏着巨大的机遇，这正是他此次率领如此庞大商务代表团的原因。 会谈重点围绕如何为英国企业打开机遇通道，会谈持续时间长且气氛良好，既有正式磋商也有非正式交流，甚 至在午宴期间仍在持续沟通，这是一场富有建设性且成果丰硕的会议。 另据中国新闻网援引英国天空新闻网报道，斯塔默在故宫发表讲话时还表示，英国应抓住与中国深化关系所带 来的机遇，这将有助于缓解英国国内的生活成本压力。 "开放商业并抓住这些机会，从而改善英国的商业环境、创造就业并降低物价，这真的非常重要。我们在所有 这些领域都取得了切实进展。"斯塔默说。 1月28日下午，斯塔默乘机抵达北京首都国际机场，开启为期4天的访华行程。斯塔默此访是英国首相时隔八年 再次访华。除北京外，斯塔默还将访问上海。 据了解，此次随同斯塔默访问的包括50余家英国大企业高管和机构代表，涵盖金融、医药、制造业、文化、创 意等英优势领域，体现了英方对深化双边经贸关系的期待。 中国外交部发言人在谈及斯塔默访华时指出，当前国际形势变乱交 ...

在科技股大放异彩的2025年，不少基金凭借着高仓位得以积累可观的净值。 但基金经理对后市观点的分歧体现在对股票仓位增减不一的操作中，根据去年四季报数据统计，有超过一半的 主动权益产品四季度内降低了股票仓位。 灵活配置型基金凭借更小的仓位约束，成为基金经理操作的"利器"。部分基金经理在四季度大幅增持股票资 产，踏准行情取得了两位数的收益；也有基金经理选择落袋为安，并将投资方向聚焦至优质白马股或部分低估 值个股，基金净值走势也较为平缓。 超过一半的基金降低股票仓位 据去年四季报数据统计，纳入统计的4525只主动权益基金中（仅统计A类份额），有超过一半的基金（2597 只）四季度内降低了股票仓位，基金经理的谨慎观点也在四季报以及近期发声中有所体现，而在已经集体上涨 的权益市场中，因避险情绪影响，白马股和低估值板块更受青睐。 华东某公募基金经理认为，当前市场成长和主题方向越来越昂贵以至脱离基本面的真实价值，相当多股票处于 历史上最贵的估值分位，各行各业的龙头白马大部分处于历史估值中枢的下限附近，整体宏观经济在产能周期 的作用下也已逐渐出现拐点，主题与小微盘的极度高估与龙头白马的便宜与低估形成了鲜明的对比。 由于行业发 ...