Key Points Summary Group 1: Important Events Review - The State Council issued an opinion on August 5 to gradually promote free preschool education, stating that from the autumn semester of 2025, public kindergartens will waive the care and education fees for children in their final year [2] - The 2025 World Robot Conference opened on August 8, featuring over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 domestic and international robotics companies, including more than 100 new products, which is approximately double the number from last year [2] - On August 8, China National Railway Group announced the establishment of a new company for the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway with a registered capital of 95 billion RMB, marking a significant step in the construction of this strategic transportation artery [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The bond market showed signs of recovery as funding rates fell, and the adjustment of VAT policy stimulated banks' willingness to allocate to older bonds, with no unexpected disturbances from local government bond issuances [4] - The A-share market rebounded and reached a new high for the year, with strong market sentiment and a shift from growth sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals back to cyclical sectors influenced by expectations surrounding the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway [5] - The Hong Kong stock market also rebounded, but the momentum was generally weaker compared to the A-share market [6] - The US stock market demonstrated strong resilience, quickly rebounding after a previous week's decline, with the Nasdaq reaching a new high despite disappointing non-farm payroll data [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market pressure eased, with short-term focus on trading opportunities, as the negative impact of the stock-bond relationship weakened [8] - The stock market saw margin trading surpassing 2 trillion, indicating strong sentiment, although there are rising risks of overheating, suggesting caution against chasing high prices [9] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has decreased, but the market lacks marginal positive news, leading to a potentially volatile short-term outlook [10][11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to a vacuum in incremental policy, with the Politburo meeting removing references to "rate cuts," indicating a lower probability of new stimulus policies [2][5] - The A-share market's profitability may decline amid overseas disturbances, despite a high likelihood of an extension of the US-China tariff exemption period [2][5] - Investment strategies should focus on two main areas: defensive stocks such as banks and non-bank financials, and opportunities in rare earths due to US-China tensions and price increases [2][5] Stock Market Factors - Last week, small-cap stocks outperformed, with a balanced preference for value and growth styles; however, volatility in both large and small-cap stocks increased [7] - The dispersion of excess returns among industry indices slightly increased, while the speed of industry rotation remained stable, with a significant decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks [7] - Trading concentration remained consistent, with the top 100 stocks and the top five industries maintaining their previous levels of trading volume [7] Market Activity - Market volatility rose sharply last week, and turnover rates continued to increase [8] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the strength of trends across all sectors slightly decreased; however, the basis momentum for precious metals increased, while other sectors remained stable [15] - Volatility across all sectors rose, and liquidity in the non-ferrous metals sector declined rapidly [15] Options Market Factors - Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices, which had been rising, began to decline, indicating that many market participants are starting to take risk precautions after a period of continuous gains [22] Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market demonstrated its defensive characteristics as the equity market adjusted, with the premium rate for bonds exceeding 100 yuan continuing to rise, surpassing the May peak [24] - The proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums has increased, indicating structural differences, while the trading volume in the convertible bond market remained stable [24]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to a 3% value-added tax (VAT) [3][7] - As of August 3, 2025, 43 out of 46 public equity bank wealth management products have positive annualized returns this year, with 17 products exceeding 10% [3][8] - Ningyin Wealth Management has actively participated in IPO offline subscriptions, engaging in three instances within ten days [3][9][10] - Su Yin Wealth Management launched a "Wealth Management + Charity" product, directing excess returns to support leukemia patients from low-income families [3][11] Yield Performance - For the week of July 28 to August 3, 2025, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.38%, up 3 basis points from the previous week [3][13] - The bond market sentiment improved due to multiple factors, including sustained liquidity support from the central bank and favorable outcomes from political meetings and US-China tariff negotiations [3][17] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 3 basis points to 1.70%, while credit spreads continued to widen but at a slower pace [3][17] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was 2.22%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points week-on-week, with credit spreads widening by 1.28 basis points [3][20] - The relationship between net value ratios and credit spreads is generally positive, indicating potential redemption pressure when net value ratios exceed 5% [3][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in various ETFs, particularly focusing on technology, robotics, chips, and infrastructure sectors, driven by favorable market conditions and government policies [3][4][10][12]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010.SH) is highlighted, with a projected net inflow of HKD 731.2 billion from southbound funds in the first half of 2025, which is 91% of last year's total net purchases [3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has a PE-TTM of 21.19 as of August 4, 2025, indicating a valuation at the 15.86% percentile of its historical range, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [4]. Group 2: Robotics Sector - The Robotics ETF (562500.SH) is positioned to benefit from government initiatives to develop intelligent robotics and new manufacturing equipment, with policies aimed at enhancing financing support for strategic sectors [6][7]. - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased over 60 humanoid robots, indicating significant innovation and potential for commercialization in the robotics field [6]. Group 3: Chip Sector - The Chip ETF (159995.SZ) is influenced by the recent approval of H20 chip exports to China, signaling a temporary easing of U.S. export restrictions, although long-term challenges remain due to ongoing technology sanctions [9][10]. - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund with a registered capital of CNY 344 billion aims to bolster domestic chip manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign technology [10]. Group 4: Infrastructure Sector - The Infrastructure ETF (516950.SH) is set to benefit from the government's plan to issue CNY 1.3 trillion in special bonds and CNY 4.4 trillion in project financing, focusing on infrastructure and equipment upgrades [11]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Station project, with a total investment of CNY 1.2 trillion, is expected to drive demand across the entire infrastructure supply chain [11].

Macro Overview - The U.S. labor market shows signs of fatigue, with non-farm employment growth nearly stagnating over the past two months, which historically indicates economic distress or the need for intervention [4] - Despite the weak labor data, the probability of a recession remains manageable, with the New York Fed predicting a 28.71% chance of recession in the next 12 months [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in consumption and investment due to high interest rates and uncertainty in tariff policies, although the overall economic resilience was strong in the first half of the year with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% [4] Domestic Policy Insights - The current policy focus is on observing the economic conditions in consumption, exports, and real estate, with a shift towards long-term mechanisms for sustainable economic development [4] - The government is expected to prioritize high-quality economic development and establish long-term sustainable growth mechanisms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4] - If GDP growth falls below 4.7% in the third quarter, there may be considerations for additional policy measures [4] Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow upward trend, supported by strong economic fundamentals and high market activity, although valuation recovery may slow down [4] - The focus for investment should be on long-term allocations in sectors such as banking, dividends, and broad-based indices, with a cautious approach to chasing high valuations [4] - The market is witnessing a structural rotation with opportunities in themes like technology (AI, computing power, chips), military, pharmaceuticals, stablecoins, rare earths, and cyclical sectors [4] Asset Class Outlook - A-shares are viewed as relatively optimistic, while Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks maintain a neutral stance [6] - Credit bonds and convertible bonds are also seen as relatively optimistic, indicating a favorable outlook for fixed-income investments [6] - The outlook for commodities like oil remains cautious, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the global market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share equity market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching last October's high, but faced adjustments after reaching the 3600-point level. The U.S. equity market also encountered resistance at high levels, leading to a slowdown in growth due to lower-than-expected non-farm employment data [3][4]. A-share Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has maintained an upward trend, breaking through key levels of 3400 and 3500, and recently reaching around 3600 before facing adjustments. The market sentiment has been positively influenced by multiple factors, including policy support and sector rotation, contributing to a short-term upward trend [4][5]. - The technology growth sector, which performed relatively weakly in May and June, has gained more market attention recently, indicating a shift in capital towards these lower-priced sectors [4]. Fund Strategy Performance - The Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy and Stock Enhancement Strategy recorded returns of -1.951% and -0.858% respectively this week, while overseas equity strategies also saw a decline of -1.307% [5][6]. - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund has shown strong stability since its inception, effectively reducing portfolio volatility while maintaining decent returns. It has performed well during market fluctuations, demonstrating its defensive characteristics [10]. - The Stock Enhancement Fund has faced challenges in the current market environment, with its performance closely mirroring the benchmark. However, it is expected to gain traction as market conditions improve [11]. Overseas Market Insights - Recent developments in the overseas market, including reduced tariff risks and positive economic data, have led to a rebound in U.S. stocks. However, there are concerns about over-optimism and potential short-term pullbacks [5][6]. - The overseas equity allocation strategy has also faced declines, with a recorded return of -1.307%. Despite this, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the absence of significant recession risks in the U.S. economy and strong technological growth trends [6][7]. Fund Strategy Construction - The company has developed a quantitative method to construct a fund selection pool that meets the needs of investors with different risk preferences in various market environments. This includes low-volatility fund combinations for defensive strategies and cash management tools for optimizing short-term idle funds [20][24]. - The overseas equity allocation strategy focuses on selecting QDII funds based on long-term momentum and short-term reversal factors, aiming to provide investors with a diversified global investment approach [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent market adjustments, with major indices mostly declining, while specific sectors like PCB and innovative pharmaceuticals continue to accelerate trends, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][12] - The AI computing sector shows increased capital expenditure from overseas tech giants, confirming the rationality of North American computing demand, while domestic computing's self-control is seen as an inevitable trend [4][13] - The innovative pharmaceutical theme has surged significantly, with the Wind data indicating a 25.61% increase in the innovative drug index for July, driven by clinical advancements and overseas breakthroughs [14] Group 2 - As of August 1, 2025, over 91.81% of actively managed equity funds have achieved positive returns this year, with an average return of 13.50%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index [15] - The active equity fund index tracking shows varied performances, with the growth stock index rising by 0.63% and achieving a cumulative excess return of 20.58% since inception [8][12] - The pharmaceutical stock index rose by 3.48% last week, reflecting strong performance in the sector, while the consumer stock index fell by 1.78% [9][12]

Market Overview - Bond yields exhibited volatility during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025, with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) rising by 0.15% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) increasing by 0.11% [13] - Interest rate bonds across various maturities saw a downward trend, with long-term bonds performing slightly weaker than short-term ones [13] - Credit bonds also experienced a decline in yields across most maturities and ratings, with credit spreads showing narrow fluctuations [13] Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a new VAT policy on bond interest income, effective August 8, 2025, which will impose VAT on newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [17] - The policy adopts a "new and old distinction" approach, maintaining VAT exemption for bonds issued before August 8, 2025, until maturity [17] - This shift aims to enhance tax fairness and optimize market mechanisms, as the previous exemption policy has fulfilled its purpose of boosting investor interest [17][19] Fund Market Dynamics - The REITs market rebounded, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index rising by 1.25% during the week, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [16] - New REITs listings included the first central enterprise natural gas power public REIT, which saw a first-day increase of 19.9%, and a logistics REIT that rose by 27.5% [16] - The public fund market is adjusting to the new VAT policy, which may increase the tax burden on financial institutions while providing a relative advantage to public fund products [18] Fund Performance Tracking - The Money Market Enhanced Index rose by 0.03%, with a cumulative return of 3.88% since inception [3] - Short-term bond funds increased by 0.06%, with a cumulative return of 4.06% since inception [4] - Medium to long-term bond funds rose by 0.13%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.45% since inception [5] - REITs funds saw a significant increase of 1.99%, with a cumulative return of 38.17% since inception [10]

01 重要事件回顾 1、中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢29日晚在瑞典斯德哥尔摩说，根据中 美新一轮经贸会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制 措施如期展期。 8、美国7月就业增长超预期放缓，美国7月季调后非农就业人口录得7.3万人，远低于市 场预期的11万人。同时前月数据被大幅下修，显示劳动力市场显著降温。 2、7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议重申 稳中求进的工作总基调，延续了4月政治局会议中"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"的 表述。货币政策适度宽松取向不变，但未提及降准降息。会议指出，依法依规治理企业 无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两个毫不动摇"，激 发各类经营主体活力。 3、7月30日，美联储如期按兵不动，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%。 这是美联储连续第五次在货币政策会议上决定暂停降息。鲍威尔在最新一轮货币政策会 议后的新闻发布会上表示，美联储尚未就9月利率做出任何决定。 4、7月30日，美国经济分析局公布2025年二季度GDP数据初值：二季度实际GDP年化 季率初值+3.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant growth in the bank wealth management market, with a focus on the performance and trends of various financial products, particularly in the context of regulatory changes and market dynamics [2][6][7]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - As of June 2025, the total scale of the bank wealth management market reached 30.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [2][6]. - The scale of wealth management products from 32 companies was 27.48 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.98% [2][6]. - There is a trend towards longer-duration products, with over 72.86% of closed-end products having a duration of more than one year, an increase of 4.99 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. - Fixed-income products dominate the market, accounting for 97.20% of the total wealth management product scale, with cash management products experiencing a contraction [2][7]. - The proportion of wealth management products investing in public funds has risen to 4.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][7]. Investment Trends - The investment in credit bonds has decreased, with holdings amounting to 312.79 trillion yuan, representing 38.79% of total investment assets, down 2.34 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The recent market environment has led to a notable increase in the issuance of IPOs in Hong Kong, with a total of 42 IPOs raising 106.7 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, nearly eight times the amount from the same period last year [3][9]. Performance Metrics - The average annualized yield for cash management products was recorded at 1.35%, a decrease of 2 basis points week-on-week [10][13]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 7 basis points to 1.73%, indicating a significant upward trend in interest rates [13][14]. - The wealth management product net value ratio was 2.02%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points, with credit spreads widening by 4.06 basis points [4][17].