分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）上证指数上涨 1.91%，创业板指上涨 5.69%，恒生指数上涨 3.20%。银行板块在6月27日出现较大幅度回调，而科技股受海外映射及小米新品催化再度活跃。 权益市场观察： 银行调整背后：银行股回调主要受季末调表需求及获利回吐压力影响。年内银行板块涨幅显著，部分机构选择 季末止盈兑现收益。尽管市场此前关注保险资金在低利率环境下对稳定回报资产的配置需求，但银行低PB、高 股息特性对AMC等机构同样具备吸引力。 科技股再度活跃：科技产业指数在2月见到高点后，调整时间相对较长，上周科技板块相对活跃，除了"低位滞 涨"外，AI产业链催化频现。 军工热度提升：在近期"印巴"、"以伊"冲突的背景下，全球军贸需求持续深化我国军贸装备产的性能、性价比 优势。但是客观来说，军工出海仍面临多重挑战。 公募基金市场动态： 7月1日，信澳优势行业与华商致远回报将启动募集，至此全部26只浮动管理费基金开始募 集。 主动权益基金指数表现跟踪 主动股基优 ...

分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾 ——中东局势按下停止键 1、中东局势按下停止键。美国总统特朗普于美国东部时间6月23日在社交媒体上表示， 以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致。伊朗和以色列24日均表示接受停火。尽管 此前美国轰炸伊朗核设施，但冲突并未进一步升级，而是在特朗普声称破坏伊朗核设施 后迅速转向挺火。 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 2、6月24-25日，美联储主席鲍威尔在众议院发表半年度货币政策证词。重申不急于降 息，强调高关税带来很大的不确定性，指出美国经济很强劲，在不确定形势下有理由缓 慢行动，同时提到了可能推动降息的一些因素。 3、6月27日，美财长贝森特暗示，关税谈判期有望延后至9月1日。贝森特表示，如果能 和18个重要贸易伙伴中的10个或12个签署，后面还有20个重要贸易伙伴，他认为可能在 9月1日美国劳动节前完成贸易协议。 总体来看，中东冲突已经"翻篇"，且美国贸易谈判期有望延后，短期内市场不确定性减 弱。国内市场预计仍相对偏稳健。 (6.23-6.29) 02 周度行情回顾 债市震荡为主 权益市场表现较好叠加季末因 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently lacking catalysts, leading to increased volatility pressure. The downward space for large-cap stocks is relatively limited under the support of the Central Huijin Investment. Short-term focus is recommended on defensive sectors such as banks and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][4] - New consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are facing higher adjustment risks in the short term, suggesting that investors should wait for risk release before seeking more cost-effective investment opportunities [2][4] Stock Market Factors - The large-cap value style remains dominant in the market, while the volatility of both large and small-cap styles has decreased. The volatility of value and growth styles is at a near-year low [6][8] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices is at a near-year low, with a decrease in the proportion of rising constituent stocks and an increase in industry rotation speed [6][8] - Market activity remains low, with the market volatility at a near-year low and a slight increase in turnover rate [7][8] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of black and precious metals has decreased, while the trend strength of agricultural products has increased. The basis momentum of precious metals and non-ferrous metals has rapidly declined [19][22] - The volatility of energy and precious metals has slightly increased, while other sectors remain at near-year low volatility levels. Liquidity performance is mixed across sectors, with the energy sector at a near-year high in liquidity [19][22] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility levels of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 show no significant trend, with the implied volatility of CSI 1000 remaining at historically low levels. The skewness of put options for CSI 1000 has increased, indicating a temporary alleviation of market concerns regarding small-cap stocks [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - In the convertible bond market, valuations continue to rise, with the premium rate for bonds converting at 100 yuan increasing and approaching the peak seen in May. The proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums has significantly decreased, while market transaction volume remains stable within a fluctuating range [31]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" has been officially released, marking the 14th consecutive year of publication by Huabao Securities [1][2] - The report emphasizes the industry's transition towards service-oriented wealth and asset management, a concept that gained traction in the previous year and has seen significant progress in 2024 [2] - The theme of this year's report, "Ecological Leap," reflects the need for collaborative efforts across the industry to reconstruct and upgrade the wealth ecosystem, indicating a profound transformation [2][3] Section Summaries Part One - Insights into the Wealth Ecosystem in 2024 - The report discusses the potential decline in yields for deposit-replacement products and the challenges in getting clients to accept net value fixed-income products [3] - It explores insights from the wealth management institution "Fat Donglai" and the hidden secrets behind investors' choices between funds and wealth management [3] - The impact of the trend towards tool-based and index-based investments on the competitive landscape of financial products is analyzed [3] Part Two - Review and Outlook of Various Financial Products - The report includes a comprehensive review of bank wealth management over the past 20 years, highlighting the return to net value [4] - It provides an overview of the public fund market, focusing on the ecological landscape and the challenges of low-profit margins [4] - The ETF market is examined, showcasing its rapid growth and the dual record highs in scale and market share [4] Part Three - Ecological Leap: Shaping a New Landscape for Wealth and Asset Management - The report compares cross-market financial products and discusses the cognitive load due to product homogeneity [6] - It emphasizes the importance of fund strategy indices in making fund investments more scientific and transparent [6] - The report addresses the role of large models in reconstructing wealth management services and the evolution of practitioners within the ecological leap [6]

Core Viewpoints - The Chinese wealth management industry is entering a golden period due to the continuous expansion of the middle-income group, which provides a stable customer base and drives demand for diversified and professional asset allocation [4][5] - Recent regulatory measures, including the introduction of new QDII investment quotas, aim to facilitate reasonable overseas investment by domestic entities, marking a significant step towards financial openness [4][5] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced the upcoming release of new QDII investment quotas to meet the reasonable overseas investment needs of domestic entities [2][4] - The head of the National Financial Supervision Administration highlighted that China has the largest and continuously growing middle-income group globally, making it the second-largest asset and wealth management market, with a shift towards diversified and professional asset allocation [2][4] - The 2025 Golden Bull Wealth Management Forum emphasized the transition of China's wealth management industry towards a buyer advisory era, with a consensus on prioritizing client interests and adopting diversified, globalized, and flexible asset allocation strategies [5] Peer Innovation Dynamics - Xinyin Wealth Management made its first investment in a clean energy holding-type real estate ABS, which is seen as a new financing option that supports the development of a multi-layered REITs market [6] - China Everbright Wealth Management participated as an A-class investor in the offline issuance of new shares, marking a significant shift in the traditional structure of offline share issuance [7] - China Merchants Wealth Management launched an upgraded structured wealth management product with a new "drop knock" design to enhance the probability of triggering events [7] Yield Performance - For the week of June 16-22, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.41%, while money market funds maintained an annualized yield of 1.30%, both showing no change from the previous week [3][8] - The yield of pure fixed-income and fixed-income plus products generally declined, with the yield on 10-year government bonds remaining around 1.64%, indicating a narrow fluctuation [10] Break-even Rate Tracking - The break-even rate for bank wealth management products was 0.83%, down 6 basis points from the previous week, remaining at a low level [16] - The credit spread has been compressed to historical lows since September 2024, indicating limited value for investors, and future trends in credit spreads will be closely monitored [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and strategies of ETF and index products, emphasizing the importance of grid strategies in the current market environment [4]. Summary by Sections - **ETF and Index Products Performance** - The report highlights the recent trends in ETF and index products, noting significant growth in assets under management and trading volumes [4]. - **Market Analysis** - A detailed analysis of market conditions is provided, indicating that the volatility in the market has led to increased interest in grid trading strategies [4]. - **Investment Strategies** - The article outlines various grid strategies that can be employed by investors to capitalize on market fluctuations, suggesting that these strategies can enhance returns while managing risks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to show a slight decline under the influence of international geopolitical risks, but overall support remains strong, with opportunities for low-cost positioning in quality dividend sectors [2][3] Market Overview - The A-share market has experienced a slight pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a low near 3350, but the decline is limited, indicating some support [2] - The overseas US stock market shows similar characteristics, with slight declines due to geopolitical influences and resistance at previous highs [2] - Increased risk aversion and a preference for quality dividend sectors have led to strong performance in low-volatility strategies [2] Quantitative Strategy Allocation - The recommended strategy allocation is: Enhanced Equity Strategy > Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy [3] - The A-share market is showing signs of stabilization in technology growth sectors after adjustments, leading to a relatively optimistic outlook [3] - The performance of dividend and low-volatility sectors remains strong, but there may be a potential reduction in upward momentum due to the risk of declining dividend yields [3] Overseas Market Insights - The easing of US tariff attitudes has led to a rebound in the US stock market and other regions, with economic data exceeding expectations [4] - Short-term opportunities in overseas markets may arise from further easing of tariff risks and progress in trade negotiations [4] - The Nasdaq is approaching its early-year highs, and while upward momentum is expected, caution is advised due to high index levels [4] Fund Strategy Performance - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy recorded a return of -1.042% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 0.631% [5] - The Enhanced Equity Fund Strategy also saw a decline of -1.235%, with a cumulative excess return of 0.438% [5] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.031%, outperforming the benchmark [6] Fund Composition Insights - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund has maintained low volatility and drawdown characteristics, providing stable returns [12] - The Enhanced Equity Fund is still in its early stages, with performance closely aligned with the benchmark, but potential for stronger returns as market conditions improve [14] - The Cash Growth Fund has consistently outperformed its benchmark since its strategy launch, providing effective cash management options [15] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund has accumulated significant excess returns, benefiting from the global technology sector's growth [17]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" has been officially released, marking the 14th consecutive year of publication by Huabao Securities [1][2] - The report emphasizes the industry's transition towards service-oriented wealth and asset management, a concept that gained significant traction in 2024 [2] - The theme of this year's report, "Ecological Leap," reflects the need for collaborative progress across the industry, highlighting a comprehensive transformation in the wealth ecosystem [2][3] Section Summaries Part One - Insights into the Wealth Ecosystem in 2024 - The report discusses the potential decline in yields for deposit-replacement products and the challenges in getting clients to accept net-value fixed-income products [3] - It explores insights from the "Fat Donglai" case for wealth management institutions and the hidden secrets behind investor choices between funds and wealth management products [3] - The impact of the toolization trend and index-based investments on the competitive landscape of financial products is analyzed [3] Part Two - Review and Outlook of Various Financial Products - The report includes a comprehensive review of bank wealth management over the past 20 years, highlighting the return to net value [4] - It provides an overview of the public fund market, focusing on the ecological landscape and the challenges of low-profit margins [4] - The ETF market is examined, showcasing its rapid growth and the dual record highs in scale and market share [4] Part Three - Ecological Leap: Shaping a New Landscape for Wealth and Asset Management - The report compares cross-market financial products and emphasizes the cognitive load due to product homogeneity [6] - It discusses the significance of fund strategy indices in making fund investments more scientific and transparent [6] - The report highlights the transformative potential of large models in reconstructing wealth management services and the evolution of practitioners within the ecological leap [6]

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has negatively impacted risk appetite, leading to a narrow range of market fluctuations and a decrease in trading volume to around one trillion [2][16] - The banking index has risen significantly, with multiple bank stocks reaching historical highs, while sectors like stablecoins and oil and gas have performed well [2][16] - The AI and robotics sectors, which had previously experienced declines, showed slight rebounds, while the innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption sectors faced significant adjustments [2][16] Group 2 - There is a divergence in the performance of banks and micro-cap stocks, with banks continuing to rise while micro-cap stocks have adjusted downwards due to various factors, including stable policy expectations and upcoming mid-year earnings reports [17] - The AH share premium rate has rebounded to 130 points, correlating with the US dollar index, indicating international capital flows favoring Hong Kong stocks [18] - The sentiment in the liquor sector has improved due to policy guidance, although long-term challenges such as demographic changes and evolving consumer preferences remain [19] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF will be included in the fund advisory configuration range, aiming to enhance the board's demonstration effect and promote broader institutional breakthroughs [20] - The active equity fund indices showed varied performance, with the active stock fund index down 1.63% last week but achieving a cumulative excess return of 12.23% since inception [5][21] - The healthcare sector index experienced a significant decline of 6.82% last week, but it has recorded a cumulative excess return of 19.96% since inception [9][21]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a slight increase last week (June 16-20, 2025), with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) rising by 0.25% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) increasing by 0.19% [2][12] - Interest rates on government bonds decreased, with the short-term rates declining more than the long-term rates, while credit bond yields generally fell, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads [2][12] Market Dynamics - The funding environment was unexpectedly loose, with strong demand for short-term bonds; coupon-bearing assets continued to be favored, resulting in ongoing compression of credit spreads [2][13] - The Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rate stance, while geopolitical risks heightened demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [2][14] REITs Market Development - On June 18, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the first two data center REITs, marking a significant expansion in the REITs market [2][15][16] - The REITs market maintained an upward trend, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index rising by 0.9% last week, driven by the expansion of the primary market and the continued demand for rental housing REITs [2][15] Public Fund Market Trends - The approval of the first data center REITs is expected to accelerate the issuance of REITs, further enriching the types of underlying assets in the market [2][16] - As of June 20, 2025, nine new REITs have been issued this year, supported by policy incentives and rapid expansion [2][18] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond funds rose by 0.05% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.93% since inception [3][21] - Long-term bond funds increased by 0.17%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.53% since inception [4][21] - REITs funds surged by 2.55%, with a cumulative return of 43.01% since inception, indicating strong performance in this asset class [10][21]