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【公募基金】降息降准落地,主题投资怎么配?——基金配置策略报告(2025年5月期)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-05-09 10:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of equity and bond markets, highlighting the impact of external shocks and policy measures on investment strategies, with a focus on technology assets, domestic demand, and dividend-focused investments [2][5][11]. Recent Market Review - In April 2025, equity markets experienced a downturn due to heightened risk aversion amid external shocks, while bond markets saw a rally following tariff impacts, with the Wande Bond Index recording a positive return of 0.37% [2][5]. - The Wande Active Stock Fund Index, Wande Stock Fund Total Index, and Wande Mixed Fund Total Index reported declines of -2.79%, -2.92%, and -1.78% respectively [5]. - The bond market showed resilience with the Wande Medium to Long-term Pure Bond Index rising by 0.57% and the Short-term Pure Bond Index increasing by 0.29% [5]. Equity Fund Allocation Strategy - In the absence of favorable fundamentals, investment strategies are shifting towards industry trends and thematic investments, with a focus on technology assets, domestic demand, and stable high-dividend sectors [2][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of defensive assets in the current market environment, particularly in light of the ongoing tariff disputes between the US and China [11]. Fixed Income Fund Allocation Strategy - The outlook for May suggests that interest rates may reach new lows following recent monetary easing measures, with expectations for further growth-supporting policies [3][15]. - The article outlines a strategy for Fixed Income Plus funds, categorizing them into low, medium, and high volatility segments, while favoring high-grade credit bonds and stable dividend-focused funds [3][15]. Fund Performance Review - The article provides a performance review of public funds, noting that various fund indices experienced declines in April, with value and balanced style indices performing slightly better than growth style indices [7][8]. - The agricultural and pharmaceutical sectors showed strong performance, with the Agricultural sector rising by 2.21% and the Pharmaceutical sector increasing by 0.54% [8][9]. Historical Performance of Selected Indices - The Active Equity Preferred Index has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.0158 since its inception, outperforming the Active Stock Fund Index by 14.05% [14]. - The Short-term Bond Fund Preferred Index has a cumulative net value of 1.0319, with a slight outperformance of 0.58% relative to its benchmark [18]. - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Preferred Index has a cumulative net value of 1.0598, outperforming its benchmark by 0.23% [22].
从迈向服务化到生态跃迁——2025中国金融产品年度报告正式发布
华宝财富魔方· 2025-05-08 09:26
欢迎各位共同品鉴2025中国金融产品年度报告《生态跃迁》。需要特别说明的是,专业研究不易,为了 更加凸显其价值,今年的金融产品年度报告, 我们仅发布了实体版,并未电子版。 若您对报告有进一步内容咨询及解读合作需求,欢迎联系您的对口销售,或扫码添加上方工作人员! ...
以投资者为本的转型之路——证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》点评
华宝财富魔方· 2025-05-08 09:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds," which aims to transform the public fund industry from a "scale-oriented" approach to one that prioritizes "investor interests" through various regulatory and structural reforms [2][3][5]. Group 1: Key Points of the Action Plan - The Action Plan emphasizes four main aspects: strengthening the binding of interests with investors, developing and expanding equity funds, enhancing the service capabilities for investors, and increasing the internal stability of the industry [6][12]. Group 2: Strengthening Investor Interest Binding - The Action Plan proposes optimizing fund operation models through floating management fee mechanisms, performance benchmarks regulation, further fee reductions, and performance evaluation reforms to align fund managers' income with investor returns [7][8]. - The floating management fee mechanism will be normalized, requiring leading institutions to issue at least 60% of new equity funds with performance-linked fees, improving alignment between fund managers and investors [7]. - Performance benchmarks will be regulated to ensure accountability, with penalties for underperformance and rewards for exceeding benchmarks, enhancing transparency and reducing selection difficulties for investors [8][9]. Group 3: Developing Equity Funds - The Action Plan continues to support the high-quality development of equity funds, allowing public funds to participate more in financial derivatives to manage risks and achieve absolute return goals [10]. - It encourages innovation in equity fund products, including floating fee funds and thematic investment index funds, with streamlined registration processes to enhance market participation [10][11]. - The evaluation system for sales institutions will be optimized to focus on service quality rather than just sales volume, improving investor experience [11]. Group 4: Enhancing Service Capabilities for Investors - The Action Plan calls for fund companies to improve their organizational structure, research capabilities, and product lines to better serve investors [12][13]. - It emphasizes the need for a team-based research system to enhance investment strategies and reduce risks associated with individual fund managers [13][14]. - The establishment of a centralized data platform for institutional investors is proposed to streamline investment processes and improve service quality [14]. Group 5: Increasing Internal Stability of the Industry - The Action Plan outlines measures for liquidity management, long-term investment encouragement, compliance, and reputation management to enhance the internal stability of public funds [15][16]. - A multi-layered liquidity risk prevention mechanism will be established, along with a focus on long-term investment strategies to mitigate short-term speculative behaviors [15]. - Compliance and reputation management will be strengthened to ensure ethical practices within the industry, promoting a healthier investment environment [16].
【宏观策略】静观其变,谋而后动——2025年5月资产配置报告
华宝财富魔方· 2025-05-08 09:26
登记编号:S0890521120001 分析师:郝一凡 登记编号:S0890524080002 分析师:刘 芳 登记编号:S0890524100002 分析师: 蔡梦苑 | | 关税缓和信号显现,但行业关税仍存变数: | | --- | --- | | | > 美国一季度GDP萎缩,后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 | | | ◆ 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算奏缩至-0.3%,主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的抱累。后续美国经济走势 | | | 取决于关税谈判的进展(商品消费),以及减税政策的支持(私人投资)。 | | 海外宏观 | > 对等关税税率后续有望下调,行业关税仍存变数 | | | ◆ 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量,对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致医配一 | | | 即全球基准税率降至10%,中国维持约60%高位。 | | | ◆ 对华关税政策方面,特朗普表示"对中国达成协议的前景泵现得更加乐观"。然而潜在的行业关税(特别是医药、关键矿产及半 | | | 导体等敏感行业)关税仍存变致,伴随着协议谈判进程,市场波动或将延续。政策不确定性 ...
【金融工程】节前市场波动降低,节后风格或将转向——市场环境因子跟踪周报(2025.05.07)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-05-07 09:37
Market Overview - The market showed an increase in cautious sentiment before the long holiday, with broad market indices experiencing a decline, while small-cap stocks stabilized and recovered [4][2]. - The week before the May Day holiday saw a balanced performance between large-cap and small-cap styles, as well as between value and growth styles, with a continued decrease in style volatility [6][2]. Market Structure - The excess return dispersion of industry indices slightly decreased, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks also saw a decline, indicating a slowdown in industry rotation [6][2]. - The trading concentration decreased, with the proportion of trading volume from the top 100 stocks rebounding from a low level, while the top five industries' trading volume proportion continued to decline [6][2]. Market Activity - Market volatility continued to decrease due to the upcoming holiday, and turnover rates also saw a reduction [7][2]. Commodity Market - There was a divergence in trend strength among commodity sectors, with energy and black metals maintaining strong trends, while non-ferrous and agricultural products showed weaker trends, and precious metals experienced a significant decline in trend strength [18][17]. - The non-ferrous sector had the highest basis momentum, while the black sector saw a rapid decline [18][17]. - Volatility across all sectors remained high, and liquidity was stable across the board [18][17]. Options Market - Implied volatility levels for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 indices increased, indicating some speculative sentiment in the market before the holiday [23][3]. - The skew of call options for the CSI 1000 improved, while the skew for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 saw a notable decline, suggesting a market expectation of small-cap stocks performing better post-holiday [23][3]. Convertible Bond Market - The valuation level of the convertible bond market slightly increased, remaining above the historical median for the past year, with a small rebound in the number of convertible bonds with low conversion premiums [27][3]. - Overall trading volume in the convertible bond market continued to recover [27][3].
【策略周报】美联储降息预期降温,波折与反复
华宝财富魔方· 2025-05-05 14:31
分析师:刘 芳 登记编号:S0890524100002 01 分析师:郝一凡 登记编号:S0890524080002 A股表现分化 A股表现分化 重要事件回顾——美联储降息预期降温,波折反复或难避免 1、美国一季度GDP萎缩,美国商务部当地时间4月30日公布的首次预估数据显示,今年 第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算萎缩0.3%,是自2022年第一季度以来 首次出现下滑。 2、《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》出台,4月30日,十四届全国人大常委会第十五 次会议表决通过民营经济促进法,自2025年5月20日起施行。 3、美国非农就业数据高于预期,美联储降息预期有所降温,4月失业率报4.2%,预期 4.2%,4月新增非农就业人数17.7万人,预期增13.8万人,平均每小时工资同比增长 3.8%,预期3.9%。 总体来看,美联储降息预期降温,叠加关税谈判仍有不确定性,市场波折反复或难以避 免。 02 周度行情回顾 (4.28-5.4) 债市情绪小幅回升 4月PMI走低,显示关税影响有所现象,推动收益率小幅下行,债市小幅上涨,长债表现相 对较好。 长假前市场观望情绪有所升温,大盘宽基指数有所回落,但小盘 ...
【公募基金】关税态度放缓助海外反弹,关注底部区域布局机会——公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报(2025.04.27)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-04-29 10:10
分析师:程秉哲 登记编号:S0890522110001 分析师:黄浩 登记编号:S0890524110001 投资要点 A股在关税冲击后,上证综指反弹至3300附近,继续反弹上升的动力减弱,下半周开始呈现小幅回调的态势。随着指数修复较大部分关税 冲击带来的下跌后,市场稳定力量和避险资金对于防御板块的配置力量有所减弱,低波策略本周持续收涨,但上涨动力有所减弱。海外方 面,受到特朗普潜在放缓关税对抗强度的言论影响,市场高度担忧情绪有所缓解,周二开始美股三大指数有所反弹。 量化策略配置观点: 股基增强策略 > 海外权益策略 > 常青低波策略 A股方面,近期受到美国关税等因素影响,市场波动较大,资金避险情绪以及市场稳定资金力量支撑A股行情表现较为稳定,相应红利风 格等防御属性板块表现较优,常青低波策略也在此期间积累了一定超额收益。但随着大部分冲击得到消化,短期内的避险逻辑持续的难度 有所提升,随着避险情绪的减弱,科技成长等板块或相比在本轮反弹行情中已经有所表现过的稳定板块更有机会。因此A股工具策略内 部,短期内依旧存在波动的行情总,常青低波策略可作为打底配置,前期超配低波策略的部分,可以逐步切换至更具有进攻性的增强策 ...
关税问题反复,大盘延续稳健——市场环境因子跟踪周报(2025.04.27)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-04-29 10:10
分析师:柏逸凡 登记编号:S0890524100001 分析师:程秉哲 登记编号:S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.04.21-2025.04.25。 上周,美国在中美关税问题态度上仍在反复,风险未进一步上升,但尚未显著改善。不过受中央汇金等稳股市力量支撑, A股大盘延续稳健走势,银行股表现较好,但其他行业板块多数以快速轮动为主,科技板块波动偏大,赚钱效应有限。 权益市场 ,市场风格方面,大小盘风格仍以大盘为主,价值成长风格偏向价值;风格波动方面,大小盘风格波动与价值 成长风格波动继续下降。市场结构方面,上周,行业指数超额收益离散度上升,成分股上涨比例基本持平,行业轮动速度 上升,交易集中度方面,前100个股成交额占比从低位回升,前5行业成交额占比继续下降,显示行业成交集中度下行。市 场活跃度方面,市场波动率从高位迅速回落,换手率有所降低,显示尽管关税问题仍待解决,但股市已经逐步回复平静。 商品市场方面 ,趋势强度表现分化,能化、黑色板块趋势性较强,有色、农产品板块趋势性较弱;基差动量方面,有色 板块最高,黑色板块快速下降;波动率方面,各板块波动率维持在高位;流动性方面,各板块 ...
【策略周报】落实“先手”政策,充实“后手”储备——2025年4月政治局会议解读
华宝财富魔方· 2025-04-27 12:02
分析师:郝一凡 1)正视外部关税冲击,做好积极应对。 会议在形式判断和工作基调中指出"外 部冲击影响加大,要强化底线思维,充分备足预案"、"统筹国内经济工作和国际 经贸斗争"、"积极维护多边主义,反对单边霸凌行径",均指向关税税率尽管仍 有谈判空间,但或难以修复至特朗普上台以前的水平,外部冲击加大,要积极 应对,做好充足的预案。 2)二季度尽快落实已出台"先手"政策,增加"后手"政策增量储备。 一方 面,"既定政策早出台早见效"反映出二季度的政策重心主要在于要尽快落实好已 有政策的发力见效,财政政策延续积极基调,货币政策延续适度宽松基调;另 一方面也针对关税带来的不确定性影响,增加"后手"政策增量储备,以备形势变 化阶段及时推出。 登记编号:S0890524080002 分析师:刘 芳 登记编号:S0890524100002 01 积极应对关税影响——2025年4月政治局会议解读 中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。中共中 央总书记习近平主持会议。 通过对比发现,此次政治局会议与以往相比更加侧重于"积极应对关税影响"。 对于本次政治局会议内容,我们总结出以下七大重点: 本文来自: ...
【公募基金】如何进行资产配置?——2025Q1泛固收类基金季报点评
华宝财富魔方· 2025-04-26 08:13
发布日期:2025年4月25日 分析师:孙书娜 登记编号:S0890523070001 分析师:冯思诗 登记编号:S0890524070001 分析师:顾昕 登记编号:S0890524040001 证券研究报告一 公募基金专题报告 如何进行资产配置? 2025Q1泛固收类基金季报点评 分析师:孙书娜 执业证书编号:S0890523070001 分析师:冯思诗 执业证书编号:S0890524070001 分析师:顾斯 执业证书编号:S0890524040001 ▶销售服务电话: 021-20515355 ▶请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 目录/CONTENTS HWABAD SECURITIES 固收型公募基金202501季报数据解读 1 固收型重点基金2025Q1后市展望观点 2 汇总 固收类基金2025一季报数据回顾:业绩 2025Q1业绩:2025Q1,在A股市场的亮眼表现之下,含权固 收+基金获得良好表现,并且呈现出权益仓位越高、整体业 绩表现更优的特征。同时由于债券市场在2024年12月过度抢 跑了降准降息预期、市场资金面偏紧以及股债路晓板效应的 共同作用下,纯债型产品出现显著回撤。在久期乘数 ...