Core Insights - The article discusses the significance of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding how innovation drives economic growth, particularly in the context of China's current economic challenges [5][6]. Group 1: Innovation Ecosystem - Mokyr's core contribution highlights that an innovation ecosystem, composed of knowledge enlightenment and institutional guarantees, is essential to combat the issue of "involution" in China, which is characterized by ineffective competition and insufficient technological advancement [7][8]. - The historical context provided by Mokyr indicates that the "Bacon Plan" in the 17th century marked a pivotal moment for the role of knowledge in economic growth, emphasizing the importance of knowledge dissemination for technological breakthroughs [7][8]. - The emergence of innovation clusters, such as those in Beijing and Hangzhou, supports Mokyr's assertion that a collaborative environment among academia, capital markets, and government services fosters innovation [8]. Group 2: Competition and Innovation - Aghion and Howitt's theory of the "inverted U-shape relationship" between competition and innovation suggests that there is an optimal level of competition that stimulates innovation, while excessive competition can stifle it [10][11]. - The impact of this theory is evident in China's electric vehicle industry, where excessive competition has led to price wars that diminish profits and reduce R&D investments, highlighting the need for a balanced competitive environment [10][11]. - The commitment of 17 car manufacturers to a 60-day payment term is seen as a positive step towards restoring optimal competition in the industry [10]. Group 3: Creative Destruction - Aghion and Howitt's concept of "creative destruction" is presented as a necessary pathway for China to transition from "stock competition" to "incremental innovation," emphasizing the need to eliminate outdated capacities and explore new markets [12][13]. - The article contrasts the dominance of technology-driven companies in the U.S. with the prevalence of traditional firms in China's stock market, suggesting that the lack of a strong "creative destruction" mechanism hinders innovation [13]. - Policy recommendations include the government acting as a "rule guardian" to foster an innovation ecosystem and ensure that low-quality capacities exit the market, thereby promoting a competitive environment conducive to innovation [13]. Group 4: Conclusion - The insights from the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences emphasize that combating "involution" requires not a rejection of competition but a return to a reasonable competitive framework that enhances innovation [15]. - The article outlines three core pathways to achieve this: establishing a supportive institutional framework, regulating competition to stimulate innovation, and encouraging technological and model innovation to shift from saturated markets to new growth areas [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's monetary policy has been moderately loose in response to a complex macroeconomic environment, leading to a sustained low interest rate environment. State-owned large commercial banks must focus on serving the real economy and create greater value in the context of high-quality economic development [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Margin Analysis - The net interest margin (NIM) of state-owned large commercial banks has been narrowing significantly due to the continuous decline in market interest rates. From the end of 2018 to the end of 2024, the average NIM of the four major banks is projected to decrease from 2.18% to 1.52%, a drop of 0.66% [6]. - The average loan yield for the four major banks has decreased from 4.34% in 2018 to 3.55% in 2024, a decline of 0.79%. Similarly, the average investment yield has fallen from 3.59% to 3.09%, a reduction of 0.5% [7][8]. Group 2: Cost of Interest-Bearing Liabilities - The average deposit interest rate for the four major banks increased from 1.47% in 2018 to 1.76% in 2024, raising the cost of interest-bearing liabilities by 0.29%. The proportion of deposits in interest-bearing liabilities has decreased from 83.79% to 78.64% during the same period [9]. - The net interest income has shown negative growth as the effect of expanding asset scale to offset the narrowing NIM has diminished. Starting from 2023, the positive scale effect can no longer compensate for the negative rate effect, leading to a decline in net interest income for some banks [10]. Group 3: Future Interest Rate Trends - The article suggests that the low interest rate environment in China may persist for a considerable time due to various internal and external factors, including economic slowdown and structural issues such as technological stagnation and the fading demographic dividend [12]. - Internationally, major developed economies have entered a rate-cutting cycle, with central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank reducing rates in response to easing inflation pressures and slowing employment growth [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's stance on trade relations with the U.S., asserting that China is open to dialogue but will respond firmly to threats and restrictions [2][3] - China has clarified its position regarding the U.S. threats of imposing 100% tariffs and highlighted that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions to safeguard national security [2] - The article mentions that China has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral dialogue mechanisms before their implementation [2] Group 2 - The article reiterates that both countries have significant common interests and potential for cooperation, suggesting that mutual benefits can be achieved through respectful and equal negotiations [3] - It criticizes the U.S. for its inconsistent approach of seeking dialogue while simultaneously threatening new restrictions, urging the U.S. to correct its actions and engage sincerely in discussions [3] - The article calls for maintaining the achievements of previous negotiations and emphasizes the importance of managing differences through dialogue to promote a healthy and stable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [3]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Policies - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced that it will take necessary measures to safeguard its rights in response to the U.S. unilateralism, including imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels [5][6] - Following the U.S. announcement of a 100% tariff on China, global financial markets experienced significant turmoil, with the Dow Jones dropping 878 points (1.90% decline) and the Nasdaq falling 3.56%, resulting in a loss of approximately $700 billion in market value within three minutes of the announcement [6][8] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month, with the gold reserves reaching 7.406 million ounces by the end of September, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4,000 ounces [6][7] Group 2: Housing and Urban Development - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, stated that efforts are underway to transform old houses into "good houses" through renovation, focusing on five key aspects: good standards, good design, good materials, good construction, and good maintenance [7][8] - The shift in housing policy indicates a strategic transition towards improving existing urban infrastructure rather than merely expanding new developments, emphasizing quality of living over quantity [8] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Development - A joint implementation plan for promoting service-oriented manufacturing innovation from 2025 to 2028 has been released by seven government departments, aiming to enhance the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern services [9][10] - The plan outlines a roadmap for the next four years, with goals to strengthen the role of service-oriented manufacturing in high-quality development, including the establishment of 20 standards, 50 leading brands, and 100 innovation hubs by 2028 [10] Group 4: Tax Policies and Corporate Restructuring - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration released guidelines on tax incentives for corporate mergers and acquisitions, aimed at reducing compliance costs and clarifying applicable policies for various types of restructuring [11] - The guidelines expand the scope of applicable entities to include "public institutions" and introduce clearer execution timelines, enhancing the accessibility of tax policies for businesses undergoing restructuring [11] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,387 billion by the end of September, marking an increase of $16.5 billion (0.5%) from the end of August, the highest level since December 2015 [12]

文/《清华金融评论》 周茗一 20 25 年 北 京 时 间 1 0 月 1 3 日 晚 ， 诺 贝 尔 经 济 学 奖 得 主 揭 晓 。 乔 尔 · 莫 基 尔 （J oe l Mokyr）、菲利普·阿吉翁（Ph ili ppe Agh i on）和彼得·豪伊特（ Pe t e r Howitt）获得这一奖项，以表彰他们"对创新驱动型经济增长的阐 释"。其中，一半奖金授予莫基尔，以表彰他们"发现了通过技术进步实现 持续增长的先决条件"，另一半奖金则共同授予阿吉翁和豪伊特，以表彰 他们"通过创造性破坏实现持续增长的理论"。 北京时间 10 月 13日 晚，诺贝尔经济学奖得主揭晓。瑞典皇家科学院决定将 2025 年度瑞典中央银行纪念阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔经济学奖授予乔尔·莫基尔（ Joel Mokyr ）、菲利普·阿吉翁（ Philippe Aghion ）和彼得·豪伊特（ Peter Howitt ），以表彰他们"对创新驱动型经济增长的阐释"。 诺贝尔经济科学奖委员会表示，获奖者以不同的方式展示了创造性破坏如何制造冲突，必须以建设性的方式进行管理。否则，创新将受到老牌公司和利益 集团的阻碍，这些公司和利益集团可 ...

Core Viewpoint - Technology is the primary productive force, and better integration of technology and capital can activate new engines of economic growth, build an efficient financial ecosystem, and strengthen national strategic security [2][4]. Submission Directions - The article invites contributions on the theme of "the dual integration of technology and capital," marking the 6th anniversary of the Science and Technology Innovation Board (科创板) in 2025 [4]. - The editorial team aims to provide a platform for policy makers, business decision makers, academic researchers, and investors through various topics related to economic and financial analysis, policy interpretation, and practical recommendations [4]. Suggested Topics for Submission 1. Achievements and future development directions of the Science and Technology Innovation Board [5] 2. Impact and prospects of new policies on the financing environment for technology enterprises [5] 3. Mechanisms for nurturing patient capital under the deepening of the registration system [5] 4. Regulatory collaborative innovation in the integration of technology and capital [5] 5. Upgrading the low-altitude economy industrial chain driven by patient capital [5] 6. Support logic of the tiered design of the Science and Technology Innovation Board for unprofitable enterprises [6] 7. Institutional optimization of the patient attributes of state-owned capital [7] 8. Artificial intelligence reshaping the full-cycle management of patient capital [8] 9. Actual promotion of industries by the expansion of the fifth set of standards of the Science and Technology Innovation Board [9] 10. Capital pathways in frontier fields [10] 11. How the Science and Technology Innovation Board addresses the pain points of enterprise fundraising, investment, management, and exit [11] 12. International experience in further integrating technology and capital [12] Submission Requirements - Original submissions that have not been published on any platform [5]. - Suggested word count of 4000 to 6000 words, including charts [5]. - Plagiarism check limit of 8% on CNKI [5]. - Submission format includes a Word document, author biography, contact information, and academic resume [5]. - Submission deadline is October 18, 2025, to the specified email [5].

Core Viewpoint - RWA (Real World Assets) represents a new paradigm in asset finance, leveraging blockchain, IoT, and AI technologies to address information asymmetry and risk issues in corporate financing, ultimately enhancing the accessibility and stability of asset financing [4][6][19]. Summary by Sections RWA Definition, Status, and Trends - RWA is defined as the conversion of ownership or income rights of real-world assets into digital tokens on the blockchain, enabling automated operations through smart contracts. The global RWA market has grown from $8.5 million in April 2020 to over $21 billion by April 2025, a growth of over 245 times, with projections of $16 trillion in asset tokenization by 2030 [4][5]. Advantages of RWA - RWA is recognized for four main advantages: asset fragmentation for retail investors, high liquidity, automation of transactions, and increased transparency through on-chain data. However, the true value of RWA lies in its ability to transform corporate financing by focusing on the underlying asset cash flows rather than merely facilitating asset fragmentation [5][6]. Traditional Corporate Financing Issues - Corporate financing faces two primary risks: information problems due to limited and often inaccurate disclosures, and risk issues stemming from the uncertainty of corporate earnings, particularly for SMEs lacking sufficient collateral [9][10]. RWA's Technological Support - RWA relies on the synergistic use of blockchain, IoT, and AI to provide real-time data collection, decentralized monitoring, and dynamic risk assessment, thereby addressing the information asymmetry prevalent in traditional financing [16][17]. RWA's Value and Theoretical Foundation - The true value of RWA is in its ability to create scalable combinations of fragmented asset cash flows and modify risk characteristics, applying Markowitz's portfolio theory to real assets. This allows for the standardization and combination of previously non-standardized cash flows, enhancing risk management and financing scalability [22][19]. RWA Asset Types - RWA can be categorized into four types: stable cash flow-generating assets, assets from companies with poor consolidated performance, fragmented cash flows within a single entity, and larger-scale combinations of cash flows from different entities [22][23]. Challenges and Risks of RWA - Despite its potential, RWA faces challenges such as the need for rigorous asset quality assessments, complex regulatory requirements, and potential operational risks related to smart contracts and data integrity [28]. Conclusion and Outlook - RWA signifies a revolutionary shift in asset finance, moving from company credit-driven models to asset credit-driven frameworks, emphasizing the importance of cash flow quality and legal compliance in fostering a sustainable RWA ecosystem [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conflicting goals of the United States regarding the dollar, highlighting the dilemma of maintaining its status as the dominant international reserve currency while also addressing domestic economic challenges [1][6]. Group 1: Global Trade and Currency Connection - The current global trade and tariff disputes are deeply intertwined with currency issues, which can be analyzed through two main channels: exchange rates and savings rate spillover [3][5]. - For smaller countries, exchange rates are effective tools for balancing international payments, but for major economies like the U.S., the impact of exchange rates is limited [3][5]. - The high domestic savings rate in Asia, particularly China, contributes to trade imbalances and strong foreign investment, which is linked to currency dynamics [3][5]. Group 2: U.S. Dilemma with the Dollar - The U.S. faces a dual challenge: promoting a competitive dollar to enhance manufacturing and trade balance while also using the dollar as a geopolitical tool [6][11]. - There is a contradiction in U.S. policy where it desires a weaker dollar for domestic benefits but also aims to maintain its global dominance [6][11]. - Achieving both objectives simultaneously is deemed unlikely, suggesting that the U.S. may have to concede some of its dollar dominance [6][11]. Group 3: Potential Challengers to the Dollar - The euro is the second-largest currency in the SDR basket but faces challenges such as unclear fiscal authority and insufficient market integration [9]. - The renminbi has made strides in internationalization, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, but still lags in global financial transactions and reserves [10][11]. - The SDR could play a larger role in the international monetary system if it is recognized as a viable alternative to the dollar, promoting a multipolar currency system [13][14]. Group 4: Conditions for Other Currencies - For other currencies to gain prominence, they must meet certain conditions, such as having a significant trade deficit to export currency effectively [18][20]. - The ability to provide stable and secure assets is crucial for any currency aspiring to be a reserve currency, with the dollar currently seen as the most stable option [20][21]. - The global demand for reserve currencies must also be assessed, as the current volume of dollar-denominated assets may not reflect actual reserve needs [22]. Group 5: Opportunities for Reform - The current dilemma facing the dollar presents an opportunity for reform in the international monetary system, contingent on the willingness of the U.S. to adapt its stance [14][16]. - The potential for SDR to take on a more significant role hinges on achieving consensus among major economies and addressing the structural issues within the current system [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy amidst global uncertainties, highlighting its transition towards high-quality development and the opportunities it presents for both domestic and international stakeholders [3][10][21]. Economic Growth and Transformation - Since the 18th National Congress, China's GDP has grown from 54 trillion yuan to nearly 135 trillion yuan from 2012 to 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 6%, nearly double the global average of 3.1% [3][10]. - The contribution of consumption to economic growth is expected to reach around 63% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, while investment's contribution will drop to below 28% [4]. Innovation and Competitiveness - China has risen from 34th to 10th in the global innovation index from 2012 to 2025, with a 30% increase in patent applications compared to the US and 45% compared to Japan [5][22]. - The number of high-level STEM graduates exceeds 5 million annually, reinforcing the talent pool for innovation and industrial upgrades [22][23]. Regional Development and Poverty Alleviation - Significant progress has been made in regional development strategies, with nearly 100 million rural residents lifted out of poverty, marking a historic achievement in poverty alleviation [5][8]. - The income growth rate for rural residents has consistently outpaced that of urban residents, indicating a shift in consumption dynamics [5]. Green Transition - China's commitment to ecological civilization has led to a significant rise in its energy transition index, moving up 66 places to rank 12th globally [6]. - The country aims for carbon neutrality and has established the world's largest renewable energy system, with substantial investments in green technologies [36]. Open Economy and Global Integration - China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries, maintaining the world's largest goods trade volume for several consecutive years [7][21]. - The Belt and Road Initiative has emerged as a significant platform for international cooperation, enhancing China's global economic influence [41]. Consumer Market Expansion - By 2025, China's retail sales are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest consumer market [23][24]. - The online retail sector has maintained its status as the largest globally for 12 consecutive years, indicating robust consumer demand [23]. Infrastructure Development - There remains a substantial demand for traditional and new infrastructure, particularly in underdeveloped regions, which presents long-term economic benefits [24]. - Investments in smart city initiatives and urban renewal projects are expected to create significant opportunities in the construction and technology sectors [24]. Social Welfare and Quality of Life - The average life expectancy in China is projected to reach 79 years by 2024, ranking 4th among 53 middle and high-income countries [8]. - Continuous improvements in social security and healthcare systems are enhancing the overall quality of life for citizens [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of properly managing local government debt to ensure stable economic operation, highlighting that debt resolution strategies should adapt to economic cycles and focus on restoring the balance sheets of local governments to stimulate endogenous economic growth [2][3][4]. Group 1: Local Government Debt and Economic Stability - Local government debt management is crucial for economic stability, as it affects the capacity and willingness of local governments to invest, which in turn influences corporate investment and consumer spending [4][7]. - In the first half of the year, China's economy grew by 5.3%, but faced pressure in the third quarter due to insufficient demand and weakened consumer spending [4][5]. - The relationship between local governments, enterprises, and residents is interdependent, especially during economic downturns, where local governments play a key role in stabilizing expectations and promoting investment [6][7]. Group 2: Debt Management Strategies - The article distinguishes between "debt resolution" and "risk resolution," arguing that simply reducing debt levels can exacerbate risks if it undermines local governments' ability to invest in infrastructure and economic development [11]. - Different debt management strategies should be employed based on economic cycles: "repayment-style debt resolution" during economic upturns and "continuation-style debt resolution" during downturns [12]. - The efficiency and quality of assets corresponding to government debt are critical; thus, the focus should shift from merely controlling debt size to optimizing the structure of debt [13]. Group 3: Structural Issues in Debt Management - There are structural mismatches between the available debt resolution resources and local needs, necessitating a more flexible allocation of debt limits based on actual conditions [18]. - The scale of hidden debts remains unclear, with estimates suggesting that including recognized hidden debts raises the debt-to-GDP ratio significantly, indicating a need for better transparency and management [19]. - The current approach to replacing hidden debts with special bonds does not always align with the underlying asset quality, suggesting a need for a more nuanced strategy [20][21]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Short-term recommendations include optimizing debt resolution methods and increasing local debt limits to address immediate financial pressures from real estate adjustments [25][26]. - Long-term strategies should focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden, reforming the fiscal system, and ensuring that financing platforms transition effectively to market-oriented operations [27][28][29].