Core Viewpoint - The economic growth process is closely linked to the balance between total supply and total demand, and deviations from a reasonable growth rate can lead to macroeconomic imbalances, such as inflation or recession [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Imbalance - Economic growth that deviates from a reasonable range can result in macroeconomic imbalances, with excessive growth leading to supply shortages and inflation, while insufficient growth results in oversupply and deflation [2][3]. - Market mechanisms can exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, necessitating government intervention through scientific macroeconomic regulation to address these issues [3]. Group 2: Reasonable Economic Growth Range - The reasonable economic growth range is determined by the stage of economic development and the potential for supply growth, influenced by structural changes in the economy [5]. - China's modernization path differs significantly from Western models, requiring a unique assessment of its economic development stage [5]. Group 3: Historical Context of Modernization - China's modernization began with a low starting point in terms of per capita GDP, significantly lower than that of Western countries during their modernization phases [6]. - The initial phase of modernization in China was characterized by a lack of capital, necessitating a focus on agriculture and light industry rather than rapid industrialization [8][9]. Group 4: Role of Government and Planning - The Chinese Communist Party's leadership and the socialist system were crucial in overcoming initial capital shortages and income distribution issues, enabling rapid industrialization [10]. - The planned allocation of resources allowed for the concentration of efforts on heavy industry, facilitating the establishment of a comprehensive industrial manufacturing system [10]. Group 5: Economic Structure and Growth Potential - By 1978, the industrial value added to GDP had significantly increased, but structural imbalances persisted, particularly between heavy and light industries and between industrialization and urbanization [11]. - Addressing these structural contradictions is essential for continued modernization and economic growth, with significant potential for improvement in living standards and urbanization [12]. Group 6: Current Economic Challenges - Current economic challenges include income distribution disparities, with a Gini coefficient of 0.465 in 2023, indicating significant inequality [13]. - Despite reaching a per capita GDP of $13,000 in 2024, a substantial portion of the population still earns below the poverty line, highlighting the need for sustained economic growth to achieve common prosperity [13]. Group 7: Structural Change Potential - The potential for structural changes in income distribution, urban-rural dynamics, and regional economic disparities remains significant, necessitating a tailored approach to economic policy that considers China's unique modernization path [14]. - The analysis emphasizes that China's economic growth trajectory cannot be directly compared to Western models, as its development context and characteristics differ fundamentally [14]. Group 8: Supply Growth Potential - Assessing the current stage of China's economic development requires an analysis of supply growth potential, which is influenced by existing industrial systems and resource conditions [15]. - China possesses a comprehensive industrial manufacturing system, with production capabilities across a wide range of industries, positioning it as a global leader in industrial output [15].

《意见》强调，要聚焦消费重点领域加大金融支持，结合消费场景和特点创新金融产品，持续推 动消费领域金融服务提质增效。优化消费支付服务，健全消费领域信用体系建设，加强金融消费 权益保护。下一步，中国人民银行将会同有关部门加快推动《意见》各项政策实施落地，强化跟 踪监测，指导金融机构持续加大消费领域金融支持力度，为更好发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作 用提供有力金融支撑。 内需是经济发展的基本动力。习近平总书记指出，要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为 拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 2025 年《政府工作报告》将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益， 全方位扩大国内 封 面专题：大力提振消费 全方位扩大国内需求 需求"列为今年首要任务。 2025 年 3 月 16 日，中办、国办印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，从 提升消费能力、增加优质供给、改善消费环境等方面提出了提振消费的顶层政策框架。党中央、 国务院的各项政策体现了进一步凝聚共识、拓宽思路，把经济政策着力点更多转向促消费具有重 要意义。 为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，完善扩大消费长效机制，更好满足消费领域金融服务需 求，近日中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商 ...

6月27日（星期五） 09:30-16:30 新产业 新技术 新模式 新动能 ——数智金融助力高质量发展 第14届中国（广州）国际金融交易 · 博览会 主旨会议 基本信息 会议时间 会议地点 广州·中国进出口商品交易会展馆A区二层4.2馆 主办单位 09:30-09:40 主持开场 清华大学五道口金融学院 承办单位 北京清控金媒文化科技有限公司 广州金交会投资管理有限公司 《清华金融评论》编辑部 会议议程 吴 荻 广东卫视主持人 09:40-09:50 主办方致辞 张 伟 清华大学五道口金融学院党委委员、院长助理，《清华金融评论》执行主编 09:50-10:00 领导致辞 10:00-10:50 主旨演讲 欧阳卫民 中国金融学会副会长，广东省原副省长，国家开发银行原行长 王忠民 全国社保基金理事会原副理事长 10:50-11:20 高端对话 主持嘉宾： 吴 荻 广东卫视主持人 对话嘉宾： 欧阳卫民 中国金融学会副会长，广东省原副省长，国家开发银行原行长 王忠民 全国社保基金理事会原副理事长 11:20-11:40 主题发言：正确理解普惠金融 11:20 11:40 主题发言：正确理解普惠金融 贝多广 中国人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Cross-Border Payment System on June 22 by the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority marks a significant advancement in financial cooperation between mainland China and Hong Kong, aiming to enhance cross-border remittance services and reduce reliance on the SWIFT system [2][3]. Group 1: System Overview - The Cross-Border Payment System is built on the Memorandum of Understanding for cross-border payment connectivity between mainland China and Hong Kong, facilitating efficient and secure remittance services by connecting the mainland's Interbank Payment System (IBPS) with Hong Kong's Faster Payment System (FPS) [3]. - The system aims to address the growing demand for cross-border financial services as economic and trade ties between the Greater Bay Area and Hong Kong deepen [2]. Group 2: Advantages of the Cross-Border Payment System - The system offers several advantages, including support for interbank remittances, various payment purposes, real-time transactions, low transaction costs, and the ability to use mobile numbers for remittance [5][12]. - Unlike the traditional SWIFT system, which can take 1-2 business days for transactions, the new system allows for instant transfers, significantly improving efficiency [7]. - The Cross-Border Payment System reduces costs associated with SWIFT, where fees can reach 1%-3% of the transaction amount, by eliminating intermediaries and offering promotional zero-fee services [7]. Group 3: Operational Details - The initial participants in the Cross-Border Payment System include six major banks from mainland China and six from Hong Kong, enhancing the system's operational capacity [11][12]. - There are specific remittance limits: Hong Kong residents can remit up to 200,000 HKD annually and 10,000 HKD daily, while mainland residents can remit up to 50,000 USD annually and 300,000 RMB daily [12]. - The system currently focuses on person-to-person (P2P) transactions, with plans to expand to business and government transactions in the future [12]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The Cross-Border Payment System is expected to strengthen Hong Kong's role as an offshore RMB hub and enhance the city's financial center status by increasing RMB deposits [13]. - The People's Bank of China plans to collaborate with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to ensure the smooth operation of the system and promote high-quality development of the cross-border payment framework [13].

Core Viewpoint - The 14th China (Guangzhou) International Financial Trading Expo aims to promote high-quality development through digital and intelligent finance, focusing on the integration of policy, academia, and industry perspectives to support economic and financial reform in China [14]. Event Overview - The event will take place on June 27, from 09:30 to 16:30, at the Guangzhou Import and Export Fair Complex [1][2]. - Organized by Tsinghua University Wudaokou School of Finance, the event has been held annually since 2016, attracting over 7,000 participants and reaching an online audience of over one million [14]. Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes a series of keynote speeches and discussions featuring prominent figures such as Ouyang Weimin, former Vice Governor of Guangdong Province, and Wang Zhongmin, former Vice Chairman of the National Social Security Fund [5][6]. - Topics will cover inclusive finance, digital arbitration, and the role of digital finance in enhancing China's productivity [5][6]. Transportation and Access - Attendees can access the venue via Guangzhou Metro Line 8, taxi, or private vehicles, with specific entry points and parking instructions provided [7][8][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the impact of high tariffs on consumer goods and the potential for Japanese companies to explore opportunities in the US market while mitigating risks by diversifying their supply chains [1][4]. Summary by Sections US-China Trade Relations - Despite recent agreements to lower tariffs, the current rates remain significantly higher than before the Trump administration, with the US imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, temporarily reduced to 30% under a 90-day agreement [2][4]. - The actual tariff rate for the US on Chinese goods is approximately 51.3%, while China's effective tariff rate on US goods is around 37.5%, indicating a mutual escalation of tariffs that negatively impacts both economies [4][5]. Impact on the US Economy - The high tariffs have led to shortages of consumer goods in the US, contributing to rising prices and empty shelves, while US exports have decreased significantly, with a reported 30% drop in export volumes at the Port of Los Angeles [5][6]. - The temporary nature of the tariff suspension creates uncertainty for businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, which struggle to plan for the future amid fluctuating trade policies [5][6]. Japan's Trade Dynamics - Japan's trade has been affected by global economic cycles, with exports experiencing fluctuations due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, leading to a trade deficit in recent months [9][10]. - Japan's export structure is heavily reliant on high-value products such as automobiles and semiconductors, while its imports are primarily raw materials and energy, making it vulnerable to global price changes [9][10]. Japan-US Trade Negotiations - The US has imposed a 10% base tariff on all Japanese goods, with specific tariffs of 25% on automobiles and parts, which are critical to Japan's economy [14][15]. - Japan is actively seeking the removal of these tariffs, emphasizing the importance of the automotive sector in its export economy, which constituted 28.3% of total exports to the US in 2024 [14][15]. Recent Trends and Challenges - Japan's exports to the US have seen a decline, with a 1.8% drop reported in April 2025, marking the first decrease in four months, primarily driven by reduced automobile exports [17]. - The strengthening of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar have further complicated Japan's export competitiveness, contributing to the trade imbalance [17][12].

6月25日上午，国务院总理李强在天津出席2 0 2 5年夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式 并致辞。 李强表示，当前国际经贸格局正在发生深刻变化。 中国将继续 积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献中国经济所能。 来源丨新华社 编辑丨丁开艳 责编丨兰银帆 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 01 潘功胜：区域国家团结一致应对美关税冲击｜宏观经济 李强表示，中国将继续积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献中国经济所能。多年来，中国经济之所 以是世界经济增长的重要引擎，不仅在于自身的稳定性和高成长性，还在于中国经济的开放性和与世界 经济的联动性。中国经济持续稳健增长，将为世界经济加快复苏提供有力支撑。中国市场持续扩容提 质，将为国际经贸扭转颓势创造增量空间。中国创新持续突破跃升，将为全球发展摆脱动能不足注入新 的活力。 李强强调，这次论坛以"新时代企业家精神"为主题，具有重要现实意义。新时代需要企业家们发挥更大 作用、展现更大作为。希望大家多行大道之事，多干开拓之事，多做共赢之事。中国政府将持续打造市 场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，也将始终敞开怀抱，热诚欢迎各国企业投资中国、深耕中国，与 中国一起发展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing the competitiveness and influence of Shanghai as an international financial center, aligning with national strategies for financial reform and modernization [1][4]. Group 1: Key Initiatives for Financial Center Development - The action plan includes deepening financial market construction, promoting high-quality development of multi-level equity markets, and supporting the establishment of a world-class futures exchange in Shanghai [2]. - It aims to elevate the capabilities of financial institutions by attracting large domestic and international financial organizations and enhancing the global competitiveness of Shanghai's financial sector [2][3]. - The plan also focuses on improving financial infrastructure, including the development of a cross-border payment system and the establishment of a gold market infrastructure [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Openness and Economic Service - The strategy involves expanding high-level financial openness and aligning with international trade rules to facilitate cross-border trade and investment [3]. - It emphasizes the need to enhance services for the real economy, including the establishment of a green finance standard and the development of a unified credit service platform [3]. - The initiative also aims to support the integration of the Yangtze River Delta region through high-quality financial services [3]. Group 3: Financial Security and Regulatory Framework - The article highlights the importance of maintaining financial security under open conditions by utilizing technologies like blockchain and big data for risk assessment [3]. - It calls for the establishment of a monitoring and early warning system for cross-border capital flows and enhancing regulatory collaboration between central and local authorities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market shows a clear recovery trend in the first quarter of this year, with the future heat of the land market dependent on five key factors: improvement of the financing environment, stability of new housing transaction volume, effective inventory reduction, transformation of sales models under new real estate paradigms, and optimization of land supply rules [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financing Environment - The financing environment directly influences the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land, with a relatively loose financing environment currently aiding market stabilization [6]. - The real estate financing landscape has undergone significant adjustments, transitioning from a high-leverage model to a more regulated environment, with a focus on standardized financing methods [6][7]. - As of the end of April 2024, the balance of real estate development loans was 13.56 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, supported by both the extension of existing financing and new investments from the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism [7]. Group 2: New Housing Market Transaction Volume - The new housing market serves as a barometer for the land market, with a notable recovery in the first quarter of 2025, where new housing transaction area in major cities increased by 6% year-on-year [8]. - However, the momentum in the new housing market weakened in the second quarter, leading to potential pressure on the land market's continued growth [8][9]. - In the first five months of 2025, cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw significant year-on-year increases in new housing transaction areas, with growth rates of 13% and 106%, respectively [8]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Inventory - The total inventory of commercial housing remains high, with a pending sale area of 77.427 million square meters as of May 2025, although it has decreased by 7.15 million square meters over three months [10]. - Different cities exhibit varying inventory clearance cycles, with cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai having a clearance cycle of less than 12 months, indicating a more active land market [10]. Group 4: New Sales Models - The implementation of a current housing sales system is a crucial reform aimed at enhancing product quality and optimizing market supply-demand dynamics [11][12]. - The shift towards current housing sales is expected to lower purchasing risks for buyers and test the financial strength and product quality of real estate companies [12]. Group 5: Land Supply Rules - Land supply is being adjusted through total volume reduction, structural optimization, and innovative rules to align with market changes and promote high-quality industry development [13][14]. - Many cities have significantly reduced land supply plans, with some cities like Dongguan and Yantai seeing reductions exceeding 40% [13]. - Innovations in land transaction rules, such as flexible payment options and streamlined approval processes, are being piloted in various regions to enhance the attractiveness of land development [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent phenomenon of banks offering Labubu toys as incentives for deposits, highlighting the regulatory issues and market implications of such practices [1][3][8]. Group 1: Labubu's Popularity and Market Impact - Labubu, a product under Pop Mart, has gained immense popularity globally, particularly among the Z generation, leading to significant price increases for its products [2][4]. - Prices for Labubu products surged dramatically, with blind boxes increasing from an original price of 99 yuan to 200-600 yuan, and some rare items fetching prices over 1 million yuan at auctions [2][4]. Group 2: Banks' Marketing Strategies - Some banks, including Ping An Bank, initiated promotional activities offering Labubu toys for new deposit accounts, aiming to alleviate pressure on deposit acquisition [4][5]. - The promotional strategy required new customers to deposit over 50,000 yuan for six months to receive Labubu products, effectively turning bank branches into promotional hubs [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The promotional activities faced regulatory scrutiny, leading to a halt in such campaigns due to violations of regulations against using gifts to attract deposits [7][8]. - Regulatory bodies emphasized the need for banks to cease these practices and outlined a timeline for the orderly exit of such products by the end of 2025 [8]. Group 4: Long-term Implications for Banks - Experts warn that such promotional strategies could disrupt the normal deposit market and further compress banks' net interest margins, exacerbating existing financial pressures [9][8]. - The article suggests that banks should focus on enhancing their financial services rather than relying on gimmicky promotions to attract deposits [8][9]. Group 5: Future Marketing Strategies - The article advocates for a more sustainable approach to "IP + finance" marketing, encouraging banks to explore deeper collaborations rather than superficial promotions [18]. - Potential strategies include co-branded credit cards and unique financial services tailored to the interests of younger consumers, ensuring compliance with regulations while meeting market demands [18].