上周末，市场出现不少信号。 1、广州竟然开始上调房贷利率； 2、70城房价数据出炉，止跌回稳似乎又进一步； 3、4月经济数据公布。 市场到底什么情况？距离止跌回稳还有多久？ 先来说说，广州房贷利率不降反升的事情。 5月17日，广州宣布首套房贷利率从3.0%上调至3.1%。 很多人认为，广州这是在打压楼市。 但实际上，房贷利率上调，恰恰是楼市托底进入新阶段的信号。 这个时间点真的太巧了。 要知道，5月初基本已经确定20号LPR将会迎来新一轮下调，幅度大概是10个BP。 广州选择现在上调10个BP，很明显就是为了对冲LPR的下调。 当前5年期LPR为3.6%，广州此前执行的是LPR-60个基点，也就是3.0%。 如果本月LPR真的下调10个基点至3.5%，而广州还执行原减点，那房贷利率将降至2.9%。 之前我们就叫停过低于3%的房贷利率，并且银行还有比较大的息差压力，出现防御性上调也是非常合理的。 所以说，这次房贷利率上调，我认为更多是处于维护金融稳定的角度去思考的。 不过这背后，也传递出了3层信号： 1、3%的房贷利率可能已经成为市场共识。 2、未来房贷降息，将以降低LPR为主，加点的降低空间会越来越小； 3、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the real estate market should shift towards establishing a new financing system that aligns with the new development model of real estate, rather than merely relying on interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [3][4][10]. Financing System and New Model - The recent announcement emphasizes the need for a financing system that supports the new real estate model, marking a significant shift from passive financial support to proactive adaptation of financing mechanisms [10][11]. - The new real estate model is expected to be established from the funding and institutional levels, indicating a long-term mechanism for stability in the real estate market [16]. Characteristics of the New Real Estate Model - The traditional model of "high leverage + high turnover + high expectations" is deemed unsuitable for the current market, necessitating a transition to a new model that stabilizes the market without excessive stimulation [19][20]. - The new model will not focus on broad market stimulation but rather on maintaining a stable foundation through structural tools, such as a dual system of commercial and affordable housing [22][23]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to experience "slow growth + stability + structural adjustment," with continued demand in core urban areas and a focus on affordable housing [24][25]. - Recent policies are seen as a prelude to further measures aimed at reinforcing market stability, with significant adjustments in public housing loan rates and other financing tools [26][27]. Local Government Initiatives - Various cities are beginning to implement policies to acquire second-hand homes as part of their affordable housing strategies, indicating a broader trend towards institutionalized financing for housing [33][34]. - The potential for a structured financing approach in the acquisition of second-hand homes could provide strong confidence to the market [36]. Conclusion on Market Sentiment - The core of the current policy is not to "restart the old game" but to "initiate a new order," focusing on stabilizing the market and rebuilding buyer confidence through structural support [37][38]. - The future opportunities in the real estate market will not be about overall growth but rather about structural adjustments, emphasizing the importance of location and property characteristics in investment decisions [43].

首先是28号，纽约传来重磅消息： 位于纽约的美国国际贸易法院 阻止了特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关S政策生效 ，并裁定特朗 普对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税的行为越权。 最近两天，有关懂王对等关税的消息是反转又反转。 美国国际贸易法院认为： 美国总统无权对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收全面关税；美国国会将"不受限制的关税权力"授予 总统违反宪法 如果这个裁定被认可，那这就意味着，懂王的关S政C不合法，关S政C就执行不了。 所以在这则裁决出现之后，懂王马上就提交了上诉状。 果然，在这则消息传出来不到一天，就又出现了新消息—— 美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前做出的禁 止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 也就说，联邦法院其实还是给了懂王机会， 接下来双方还要提交书面辩论，懂王的关税政策到底 执不执行，还得看暂缓之后的判决。 虽然此刻懂王的对等关税政C看似悬而未决，甚至有被强制裁定不合规的可能性。 但我认为懂王的关税大招，后面还会卷土重来 原因有几点： 第一，懂王可以拖时间 上诉之后，这类案件会上诉到联邦巡回法院，甚至最高法院。 在这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the education sector and broader economic landscape in China, highlighting the shift from a population dividend to a technology dividend, the transition from industrial expansion to financial expansion, and the geopolitical shift towards the East. Group 1: Changes in Education Sector - The number of students in schools is decreasing, leading to concerns about an oversupply of teachers [1][4] - Hubei Ezhou has announced a freeze on the total number of primary and secondary school teacher positions, indicating a shift in teacher demand [2] - The teaching profession, once highly valued in smaller cities, is facing challenges due to demographic changes [3][4] Group 2: Transition to Technology Dividend - The population dividend is diminishing, with China's total population experiencing a negative growth for the first time in 60 years [10] - The emergence of technology dividends is expected, driven by advancements in mobile internet, AI, and industrial automation [11] - China is projected to have the largest number of industrial AI engineers globally by 2025, indicating a shift from a labor-driven economy to a technology-driven economy [11][12] Group 3: Financial Expansion - The economic engine is shifting from industrial logic to financial logic, with a focus on enhancing the quality of development through capital [19] - There is a significant opportunity for monetary expansion in China, with a lower debt-to-GDP ratio compared to developed countries [23] - The government is expected to increase social welfare and consumer power through financial means [27][28] Group 4: Geopolitical Shifts - The narrative and power dynamics in the world are shifting from the West to the East, with China emerging as a key player [29][30] - The dominance of the US dollar is being challenged, with countries increasingly using the Chinese yuan for trade [33] - China's role in the global supply chain is evolving from a manufacturing hub to a leader in new global industrial chains [34][35] Group 5: Recommendations for Adaptation - Companies and individuals should adopt a technology-oriented mindset to stay relevant in their industries [42] - There is a need for an international perspective to identify global opportunities, especially in emerging markets [42] - Understanding asset allocation and financial strategies will be crucial for capitalizing on future wealth opportunities [43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising costs of living in various cities, particularly focusing on public transportation fare increases and utility price hikes, indicating a shift in economic dynamics where traditional funding mechanisms are no longer sustainable [4][7][14]. Group 1: Public Transportation Pricing - Cities like Chongqing, Kunming, and Guangzhou are initiating fare increases for public transportation, signaling a broader trend across urban areas [2][3]. - The financial strain on public transportation systems is evident, with Chongqing's metro receiving a subsidy of 4.35 billion yuan and Beijing 24.85 billion yuan, yet still facing deficits [7]. - The previous model of "land financing" for metro systems is failing as real estate sales decline, forcing cities to rely on fare increases for operational sustainability [8][9]. Group 2: Cost of Living and Inflation - The article highlights that while housing prices have decreased, the cost of living is rising, leading to a perception of financial strain among households [4][5]. - The adjustment of utility prices is linked to government fiscal pressures, as subsidies diminish when land sales decline [14][15]. - The government is signaling a need to address low prices in essential services to prevent deflationary pressures, which could undermine market confidence [16]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Rising prices in essential services like transportation and utilities are expected to impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), with potential increases of 0.2-0.4 percentage points for CPI and 0.5-1 percentage points for PPI if utility prices rise by 4%-8% [17]. - The article suggests that the current inflation is not widespread but concentrated in unavoidable expenses, leading to a mismatch between stagnant income growth and rising living costs [19][20]. - The focus of asset allocation is shifting from high returns to stable cash flow assets, as households seek to manage cash flow amidst rising living costs [24][29].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of "sales-type affordable housing" in Shenzhen marks a significant shift in the real estate market, establishing a dual-track system that separates market housing from affordable housing [1][2][3]. Group 1: Definition and Differences of Affordable Housing - The new affordable housing categories include public rental housing, guaranteed rental housing, and sales-type affordable housing, with the latter being sold directly to eligible residents [1]. - Sales-type affordable housing will be subject to closed management, prohibiting any conversion to market housing, contrasting with previous types like affordable housing and talent housing that allowed for such conversions after a certain period [2]. Group 2: Impact of Dual-Track System on the Real Estate Market - The dual-track system alters the logic of the current real estate market, redefining housing primarily as a living tool rather than an investment vehicle [3][4]. - This shift will lead to a gradual "de-financialization" of many properties, affecting their monetary attributes and reducing the demand for market housing as the focus shifts to affordable housing for first-time buyers [5]. - The market will see a polarization where core urban areas maintain value due to limited supply and strong demand, while peripheral cities may experience declining prices and reduced liquidity [5][6]. Group 3: Price Stability and Market Conditions - The dual-track system is not expected to significantly impact housing prices in the short term, as macroeconomic factors and liquidity issues are the primary determinants of price movements [7]. - The current real estate market is in a stabilization phase, with limited upward or downward price movement anticipated [8].

2025年，楼市会触底吗？ 最近，大摩再次召开闭门会议，对中国楼市进行了判断。 这次他们认为： 中国房地产触底的时间，可能要延迟到2026年4季度。 这次又是因为什么？大摩为何会这么判断？市场还要等多久？ 为什么大摩会重新调整对我们的判断？ 要知道今年年初的时候，大摩对我们楼市的判断还是： 只要两个关键条件达成，楼市将在2025年二季度企稳。 这两个条件分别是： 一是，地方政府能够系统性地推进大规模收储，快速去化库存； 二是，银行能顺利处理大约1万亿规模的房地产相关信贷压力。 但是到了现在，这两项暂时都还没实现，因此这次预期的调整也合理。 大摩这次判断根据，总结下是4点： 首先，楼市库存压力仍在。 我看了下统计局最新的数据，4月我们新建商品房待售面积同比还是增长的，这些是在说明，现在 市场整体供需平衡还是没有达成。 现在银行对于房地产新发放贷款也趋于审慎，看了下相关数据，今年前4月，房企融资规模达 1090亿，同比下降34%。 房地产类贷款整体仍处收缩态势，说明信贷尚未完全恢复信心。 政策虽然持续释放积极信号，如优化房贷利率、调整首付比例、推动保交楼贷款等措施，但传导 至一线市场，仍需要时间。 此外，2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices indicates a significant market reaction to global economic uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S. economy and geopolitical tensions [1][5][14]. Price Movements - On May 15, gold prices experienced a sharp decline, with spot gold dropping to a low of $3,120 per ounce, reflecting a daily decrease of nearly 1.8%, while COMEX gold futures fell over 2% to a minimum of $3,123 per ounce [2][3]. - In the previous month, gold had surged to a peak of $3,500 per ounce, resulting in a decline of almost $400 per ounce within two weeks [3][4]. Historical Context - The current gold price reflects a retraction of gains made during a period of temporary tariff implementation [4]. - The gold market's upward trend began in July 2022, with prices rising from $1,900 per ounce to the current level of $3,100 per ounce, marking a 63% increase [6][10]. Driving Factors for Gold Prices - The post-pandemic economic recovery has been slower than expected, leading to lower GDP growth rates in major economies, which historically drives investors towards gold as a safe haven [10]. - Increased geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle Eastern unrest, have heightened the demand for gold as a protective asset [11]. - Central banks globally have been purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, with significant increases in reserves noted in countries like China and Russia [12]. Fundamental Issues - A critical factor in the long-term bullish trend for gold is the declining trust in U.S. sovereign credit, highlighted by recent downgrades from credit rating agencies [13]. - The inverse relationship between gold prices and the U.S. dollar indicates that as the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against potential dollar depreciation [14]. Future Outlook - The trend of dollar devaluation is expected to continue, driven by the U.S.'s diminishing global influence and internal political divisions, suggesting a sustained bullish outlook for gold [15]. - Historical patterns show that significant corrections in gold prices often precede larger upward movements, indicating a long-term bullish sentiment despite short-term volatility [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current economic uncertainties, gold is deemed an essential asset for portfolio diversification, with recommendations for investors to allocate a portion of their funds to long-term gold holdings [18][19]. - It is suggested that the returns from gold investments over a five-year horizon are likely to outperform those from more volatile assets like stocks and funds [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of increasing wages and income for residents, particularly for middle and low-income groups, as a means to stimulate consumption and drive economic growth [6][9][10]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Economic Implications - The recent joint document from the Central and State Council highlights the need to promote a reasonable wage growth mechanism [1]. - There has been a shift in policy focus from traditional methods like issuing vouchers and subsidies to prioritizing income growth [7][8]. - The increase in wages is seen as a way to reshape societal expectations, leading to higher consumer confidence and spending [9][10]. Group 2: Minimum Wage Adjustments - As of early 2025, 19 provinces and cities in China have raised their minimum wage standards to above 2,100 yuan per month, with 12 of these at least 2,200 yuan [12]. - Specific examples include Shanghai's minimum wage rising from 2,590 yuan to 2,690 yuan, and Fujian's increase of 235 yuan, representing an 11.58% to 14.16% rise [13]. - Even economically weaker regions like Qinghai have increased their minimum wage from 1,880 yuan to 2,080 yuan, a 10.6% increase [14]. Group 3: Broader Income Enhancement Strategies - Besides minimum wage increases, reducing taxes and enhancing basic social security are crucial for overall income improvement [18]. - The article suggests that significant financial resources need to be released to support these income enhancements, indicating a reliance on monetary policy [19]. - The potential for increasing property income through stable stock and real estate markets is also highlighted as a vital component of income growth [20][26]. Group 4: Market Stability and Consumer Confidence - The article argues that rising property income can significantly boost consumer spending, as it is perceived as "unexpected wealth" [21][22]. - Currently, property income accounts for only about 8% of total income in China, which is lower than the 15% to 20% seen in Western countries, indicating room for growth [24][25]. - The government’s focus on stabilizing the stock market is seen as a priority, as it serves as a leading indicator of economic expectations and can help restore public confidence [28][30]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article anticipates that more funds will flow into the market in the second half of the year, along with continued government policies to stimulate both the stock and real estate markets [33].

其实绝大多数人对形势的判断都错了。 从加征关税、技术围堵、制裁企业，到不断叫嚣 "脱钩"。 大家都以为是懂王带着美国想要和我们断绝关系。 但最近一件事，揭开了真相。 今年 3 月，东大 大幅抛售了 189 亿美元美国国债，持有规模降至 7654 亿美元。 这是东大自 2000 年跻身美债前两大持有国之后， 25 年来首次退居全球第三，被英国反超。 减持美债，其实是一个很关键的信号，它意味着此刻 —— 不是美国在和东大脱钩，而是东大，正在悄悄与美国脱钩。 3月份，海外资金买入美国国债的单月净流入为1618亿美元，是2月的1.5倍。 但在东大抛售美债的同时，海外资金却在疯狂买入美国国债， 曾经，我们一直是老美最坚定的 "债主"。 时间回到2008年，金融危机席卷 全球，华尔街风雨飘摇，但当时我们选择坚定地支持美国国债—— 持仓规模一度突破1.3万亿美元，规模首次超过日本，跃居全球第一，撑起了美元信用。 但风向，从2015年开始变了。 随着两个大国之间冲突的出现，我们的战略判断在悄悄发生转向： 对美元体系的信任，不再是无条件的； 对外汇储备的构成，也不再是一成不变。 于是，美债持有比例从高点回落，中国开始温和但持续 ...