首先， 没有明显的启动信号和突发事件催化。 过去大A启动，都是有启动信号的。 比如年初那一波大行情，靠的是deepseek带来的AI突破。 而这一回行情，没有明显的启动信号。 其次， 向上走的速度非常慢。 指数从6月份的3300点，经过接近3个月时间，才"缓慢地"涨到了现在的3800点。 上涨的斜率不高，速度也慢，明显和过去牛市中动辄一周几百点的涨幅不一样。 这一轮行情走得如此特殊， 说明其背后的逻辑，也和过去每一波牛市都不一样。 那这一波牛市行情的最底层逻辑是什么？ 有些观点认为是： 从6月份到现在，国内的资本市场明显出现了一波牛市行情。 但是，不知道大家有没有发现： 这一波行情，和过往每一次牛市都不一样。 上面为了解决通S有意识地拉升，让存款都从银行体系里面流出来。 也有些观点是认为： 拉升资本市场是为了给科技企业融资，支持东大科技的发展。 这些说法看似都有道理，但我觉得都不是根本。 我认为这一波资本市场行情之所以能够出现，最底层的逻辑是—— 估值修复、资产的重新定价 那为什么要修复估值？为什么要重新定价？ 是因为 现在的估值、现在的定价，太低了，远远脱离了真实价值。 资产的价格和价值，其实是两个东西。 ...

最近，大家的关注点都在大A身上，外围市场的变化，似乎关注度在不断降低。 但是大伙如果真想要看清楚当下的经济环境，想知道接下来资产价格的走向，就不能只看大A， 还要关注全球经济的变化。 就在最近大A上涨的同时，还有一个可能会影响全球金融市场走势、值得大家留意的现象，被所 有人都忽略了。 这个现象就是 全球债市的变化。 大家都知道，当下全球所有的国家，发展的都是 债务经 济 。 说白了，一个国家不扩张债务，不持续发行债券借钱，就没法继续在现在的环境中生存下去，尤 其是那些主导世界的发达国家，比如美欧日。 30年期国债收益率飙升至 3.222% ，创 1999年有记录以来新高 ； 10年期收益率 突破1.627% ，达到了2008年金融危机之后的峰值。 一般来说，债券的收益率上涨，就意味着债券不好卖了，因为好卖的资产，是不需要拉高收益率 吸引买家的。 收益率创造历史，说明这个债券已经被市场唾弃，完全没有吸引力了。 那为什么 突然间日债的收益率出现大规模的上涨，以至于突破了历史峰值呢？ 也正因为大家都极度依赖债务，所以各国尤其是发达国家的国债，一直都是 全球核心资产 。 而当下 全球最不能崩溃的资产，不是某个国家的股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to determine the sustainability of the bull market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately 6.8%, up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently about 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool the market [17][18]. - The third indicator is market trading volume, with a sustained volume above 2 trillion yuan typically supporting a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed this threshold for five consecutive days [20][21]. - The fourth indicator is the scale of newly issued public funds. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the peak levels seen in previous bull markets, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. Group 2: New Investor Activity - The number of new brokerage accounts opened is a critical metric, as new retail investors often signal the later stages of a bull market. Recent data shows that 1.96 million new accounts were opened in July, which is significantly lower than previous peaks [33][34]. - The current level of new account openings suggests that the bull market is still in its early stages, with a lack of significant inflow from retail investors into the stock market [35][36]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Based on the four indicators discussed, the A-share market is still in the initial phase of the bull market, with no signs of entering the acceleration phase yet [37]. - Investors are advised to hold onto their stocks while being cautious about entering the market at current levels, especially given the potential for significant downturns [39][42].

Group 1 - The article predicts a significant rise in gold prices, with expectations for prices to reach between $3700 and $4000 per ounce [10][11][12] - Recent events, including the removal of a Federal Reserve board member and stable inflation data, have contributed to the acceleration of gold prices [12][18] - The current spot gold price has stabilized around $3470 per ounce, with expectations for it to surpass $3500 in the near future [19][23] Group 2 - The article discusses the relationship between rising gold prices and the A-share market, suggesting that both may rise in tandem until at least October [25][27] - The underlying logic of the current bull market in the A-share market is attributed to asset revaluation and efforts to escape deflation [30][32] - Institutional investors are driving the current market dynamics, with significant movements observed in popular sectors like computing power and semiconductors [36][38]

又有最新的劲爆消息出现，全球资产价格，即将迎来大洗牌。 昨晚，美国劳工统计局公布了最新的非农数据，数据完全跌破了市场的预期！ 数据显示： 美国8月季调候非农就业人口只有2.2万人，远远低于市场预期的7.5万人 。 与此同时，此前 6月和7月的新增非农新增就业人口，也是合计下修了2.1万人。 也就是说老美不仅本月的非农就业人口不及预期，甚至前面两个月的非农就业人口统计也有错误，被高估了2.1万人； 此外， 昨晚美国还公布了8月的失业率，失业率数据达到4.3%，失业数字创下2021年10月以来的新高。 非农就业数人口大大低于市场预期+失业率新高，说明现在美国的经济经济已经到了非常差的地步。 数据公布之后，市场已经可以基本确定： 美国经济开始步入衰退期。 市场对美元的预期变得越来越差，押注美联储本月降息的几率也变得越来越高。 所以，昨晚消息公布之后，美元指数迅速下跌，从98一下子滑落到了97.4。 而现货黄金则是一路上升，从3550美元 /盎司 一下子涨到了最高3600美元/盎司。 其实昨晚非农就业数据的低迷，早就有预兆。 非农数据公布的前一天，也就是本周四，美联储就已经率先公布 了 ADP就业数据 ，也就是市场上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global economy is heavily reliant on debt, with developed countries like the US, Europe, and Japan issuing bonds to sustain their economies [1]. - Recently, a significant crisis has emerged in the global debt market, with Japan's bond market experiencing historic yield increases, such as the 30-year bond yield reaching 3.222%, the highest since 1999 [1][2]. - The surge in bond yields indicates a lack of demand for these bonds, as evidenced by overseas investors selling 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) worth of Japanese bonds in a single month [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The rising yields in Japan are mirrored in other developed countries, with the UK seeing its 30-year bond yield rise to 5.64%, the highest since 1998 [2][3]. - German and French 30-year bond yields have also reached their highest levels since 2011, with monthly increases of approximately 15 and 27 basis points, respectively [3]. - The unusual behavior of US Treasury yields, which are rising despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a declining willingness among investors to hold US debt [3]. Group 3: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The bonds of developed countries are interconnected, meaning a crisis in one can lead to a cascading effect on others due to the investment strategies of cross-border financial institutions [3][5]. - The decline in demand for bonds from major economies indicates a potential systemic risk, as the collapse of one country's bond market could trigger failures in others [5][6]. - The article warns that the current situation could lead to a global economic crisis, potentially larger than the 2008 financial crisis or the Great Depression of 1929 [6]. Group 4: Implications for Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain cautious and consider diversifying their portfolios with recognized safe-haven assets, such as gold, in light of the rising global financial risks [6][7]. - The article stresses the importance of not being complacent with domestic market optimism and recognizing the broader risks present in the global economic landscape [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global debt market is experiencing significant turmoil, with rising yields indicating a loss of investor confidence in government bonds, particularly in developed countries like Japan, the UK, and Germany [1][2]. - Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a record high of 3.222% on August 30, while the 10-year yield surpassed 1.627%, marking peaks not seen since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2]. - Overseas investors sold 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) of Japanese bonds in a single month, reflecting a drastic reduction in demand [2]. Group 2: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The article highlights that bonds from developed countries are increasingly interconnected, meaning that issues in one country's bond market can trigger crises in others [3][5]. - The rise in yields across European bonds, such as the UK's 30-year bond reaching 5.64%, indicates a broader trend of declining demand for government debt [2][3]. - The decline in demand for U.S. bonds, despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a growing reluctance among investors to hold these assets [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Economy - The rising yields and lack of buyers for government bonds signal potential crises in the global financial markets, which could lead to a significant economic downturn, potentially worse than the 2008 crisis [6]. - The article warns that even countries with strong macroeconomic controls will be affected by these global trends, as their economies are tied to external demand [6][7]. - The current environment necessitates a careful approach to asset allocation, with a recommendation to invest in recognized safe-haven assets like gold [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent strong performance of the A-share market while also indicating a significant upward trend in gold prices, suggesting that investors should pay attention to gold as a potential investment opportunity alongside the A-share market [1][10]. Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,800 points, reaching a 10-year high, while the ChiNext Index saw a monthly increase of over 24% [1]. - The A-share market has been the best-performing market in recent years, attracting significant investor attention and capital [1][8]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have steadily increased from a low of $3,268 per ounce on July 31 to around $3,448 per ounce by August 30, marking an increase of nearly $200 per ounce within a month [3][5]. - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to accelerate in September, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [5][10]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 18 is expected to result in a rate cut, which is seen as a key driver for gold price support [5]. - Despite a decrease in unemployment claims in the U.S., which typically signals economic improvement and is negative for gold, the price of gold continued to rise, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold as a safe haven [5][6]. - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has been correlated with the rise in gold prices, as the dollar index fell from 100 to a low of 97 during the same period [6][7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article notes that Asian traders have been less active in the gold market due to the capital being drawn towards the A-share market, leading to a lack of upward movement in gold prices during Asian trading hours [8]. - In contrast, European and American traders have been more active in the gold market during their trading hours, contributing to the price increases observed in the evening [8][9]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios to include gold and related assets, as the A-share market may not sustain its rapid growth, creating opportunities in other asset classes like gold [10].

Group 1 - The article predicts a significant rise in gold prices, with expectations of reaching between $3700 and $4000 per ounce [10][11] - Recent events, including the removal of a Federal Reserve board member and stable inflation data, have contributed to the acceleration of gold prices [12][18] - Gold prices have already reached historical highs, with COMEX futures surpassing $3550 per ounce and spot gold nearing $3499 per ounce [6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential impact of rising gold prices on the A-share market, suggesting that both may rise in tandem until at least October [25][28] - The underlying logic for the current bull market in A-shares is attributed to asset revaluation and a desire to escape deflation [30][32] - Institutional investors are driving the current market trends, with significant movements observed in popular sectors like computing power and semiconductors [36][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to gauge the sustainability of the bull market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to monitor is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at 6.8%, slightly up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently about 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool the market [17][18]. Group 2: Trading Volume - A significant trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan is a crucial indicator for sustaining a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes surpassing this threshold for five consecutive days, suggesting potential for continued market momentum [20][21]. - The margin financing balance has reached 2.17 trillion yuan, nearing the peak of 2.27 trillion yuan from 2015, indicating a strong presence of leveraged funds in the market [23]. Group 3: Fundraising and New Accounts - The scale of newly issued public funds is another indicator. In the first three weeks of August, public funds raised an average of 11 billion yuan weekly, which is significantly lower than the peak seen in the previous year, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. - The number of new brokerage accounts opened is also a key metric. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, which is considerably lower than the peak of 6.8 million in October of the previous year and the average of 3.6 million during the 2015 bull market [33][34]. Group 4: Market Stage Assessment - Based on the four indicators discussed, the current bull market is still in its initial phase, with no signs of entering the acceleration or terminal phases yet. This suggests that investors can hold their positions but should be cautious about entering the market at current levels [37][39].