这几年，相信大家都能意识到，此刻 我们正在经历一个财富不断减少的时代。 说一个扎心的数据： 根据机构统计的数据显示，这 几年居民财富 总市值从 400 万亿人民币，降到现在的 300 万亿， 大概损失了 100 万亿左右。 这其中，居民财富主要流失的份额，大多来自于房产。 所以这几年居民的财富缩水，基本上都是因为房子的价格回落。 房子的价格为什么会回落？ 这两个指数双双下跌，可以说紧缩已经形成了大趋势。 但老实说，通S本身其实并不可怕，对于多数人而言，真正可怕的是： 很多人还在用匹配通胀的资产结构应对着通S，做着错误的资产配置。 为什么说现在很多人正在做错误的资产配置？ 你可以说很多的原因，但是最根本的原因只有一个： 通S 在统计局公布的最新数据中，有两个关键的数据值得关注： 第一个 是 PPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是工厂的商品出厂价，下跌了3.3%； 第二个是 CPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是居民端买东西消费的价格，下跌3.6%。 原因很简单，就是 没有经历过通S 。 这事情其实就和谈恋爱是一样的—— 吃过见过的人，自然能应对自如；没有经历过的人，肯定要交学费。 可以说 过去这40年以来，我们从来没经历过这么 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a concerning global trend of wealth stagnation and decline, with a significant drop in private net wealth and per capita wealth across various countries, including developed and emerging economies [1][2]. Group 1: Global Wealth Decline - Global private net wealth has decreased by 2.4% in recent years, with per capita wealth shrinking by 3.6%, equating to a loss of approximately $3,200 per person [1]. - Wealth erosion is not limited to developed nations like the US and Europe but also affects emerging markets, including BRICS and ASEAN countries [1]. Group 2: Debt-Fueled Growth Model - The root cause of this wealth decline is attributed to the unsustainable debt-driven growth model that has been in place since World War II, particularly under US leadership [1]. - The model relies on printing money to issue debt, which in turn fuels consumption and GDP growth, but has reached its limits as global public debt is projected to exceed $102 trillion in 2024, with the US accounting for one-third of this total [1][2]. Group 3: US Debt Expansion - The recent passage of the "Great America Act," which allows for an additional $3.4 trillion in debt, indicates a refusal by US elites to address the debt crisis responsibly [2]. - This decision to continue expanding debt is viewed as a dangerous choice for the global economy, as it could exacerbate financial instability [2]. Group 4: Debt Cycle Analysis - The article discusses the concept of debt cycles, as outlined by Ray Dalio, which consists of five stages spanning approximately 80 years [3][4]. - The current phase, characterized as the "deleveraging phase," sees different countries adopting varied approaches, with some, like the US, opting to continue accumulating debt rather than reducing it [4][6]. Group 5: Implications of US Debt Practices - The US's deviation from normal debt cycle behavior poses significant risks, particularly in terms of potential dollar devaluation, which has already seen a 10% decline this year [6][7]. - Historical patterns indicate that major dollar devaluations have occurred during times of economic crisis, and the current situation combines both proactive and reactive factors leading to a potential unprecedented devaluation of up to 50% [7][8]. Group 6: Investment Strategies - The anticipated dollar devaluation could lead to substantial declines in dollar-denominated assets, prompting a shift in investment strategies towards safer assets such as commodities and high-dividend stocks [8][9]. - The current market trend shows a preference for bank stocks due to their high dividends, reflecting a broader demand for risk-averse investments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation is crucial for the global capital market's trajectory in the second half of the year and could significantly impact wealth over the next few years [1][6]. Summary by Sections Legislation Overview - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, primarily benefiting corporations and wealthy individuals to attract investment back into the U.S. manufacturing sector [7]. - The legislation's core logic involves providing tax cuts for the wealthy while increasing the debt ceiling to maintain fiscal spending, leading to a historical high of over $41 trillion in U.S. debt [7]. Debt Management Strategy - The increase in U.S. debt is seen as a means to manage the existing debt crisis and maintain the dollar's global dominance, despite concerns about the declining credit quality of U.S. debt [9]. - The proposed "Pennsylvania Bill" aims to convert foreign-held debt into domestic debt, reducing reliance on foreign investors by encouraging domestic institutions and individuals to hold U.S. debt [11]. Economic Policy Implications - The strategy includes depreciating the dollar and lowering interest rates to facilitate the debt replacement process, similar to Japan's long-term economic approach [13][15]. - The U.S. government may implement policies to ensure domestic entities, such as pension funds and insurance companies, are compelled to purchase U.S. debt, potentially with the Federal Reserve acting as a backstop [11][12]. Future Considerations - The introduction of stablecoin legislation is intended to maintain the dollar's status in the global economy, as it could facilitate digital payments while binding stablecoins to the dollar [16]. - The overall strategy may lead to a significant depreciation of the dollar and U.S. debt, creating a favorable environment for alternative assets such as commodities and high-dividend stocks [16]. Investment Opportunities - The anticipated depreciation of the dollar and U.S. debt prices suggests that the second half of the year may favor safe-haven assets, including precious metals and stable income-generating investments [16].

房子的价格为什么会回落？ 这几年，相信大家都能意识到，此刻 我们正在经历一个财富不断减少的时代。 说一个扎心的数据： 根据机构统计的数据显示，这 几年居民财富 总市值从 400 万亿人民币，降到现在的 300 万亿， 大概损失了 100 万亿左右。 这其中，居民财富主要流失的份额，大多来自于房产。 所以这几年居民的财富缩水，基本上都是因为房子的价格回落。 你可以说很多的原因，但是最根本的原因只有一个： 通S 在统计局公布的最新数据中，有两个关键的数据值得关注： 第一个 是 PPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是工厂的商品出厂价，下跌了3.3%； 第二个是 CPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是居民端买东西消费的价格，下跌3.6%。 这两个指数双双下跌，可以说紧缩已经形成了大趋势。 但老实说，通S本身其实并不可怕，对于多数人而言，真正可怕的是： 很多人还在用匹配通胀的资产结构应对着通S，做着错误的资产配置。 为什么说现在很多人正在做错误的资产配置？ 原因很简单，就是 没有经历过通S 。 这事情其实就和谈恋爱是一样的—— 吃过见过的人，自然能应对自如；没有经历过的人，肯定要交学费。 可以说 过去这40年以来，我们从来没经历过这么 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is causing concerns about future income and retirement, similar to Japan's lost decades. The focus should be on effective capital allocation to preserve wealth [1]. Group 1: Japanese Pension System - Japan's pension system has managed to provide substantial payouts despite economic stagnation and an aging population, primarily through investment strategies [2][10]. - The scale of Japan's pension fund is approximately $1.6 trillion, with total returns reaching ¥5.2 trillion since 2001 [2]. - The investment strategy emphasizes long-term orientation and risk management, focusing on stable assets [3][4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - Japanese pension funds allocate 25% to domestic bonds, 25% to foreign bonds, 25% to domestic stocks, and 25% to foreign stocks, ensuring risk diversification [5][6]. - The strategy includes investing in high-yield domestic stocks, which can outperform the market and provide reliable dividends [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - To ensure returns, it is suggested to invest in high-yield domestic stocks and stable, lower-risk assets like savings [11][18]. - The current market conditions indicate a potential bull market for domestic stocks, particularly in the banking sector, which has shown resilience and strong dividend yields [14][17]. - Caution is advised in stock trading, with a recommendation to consider stable funds focused on high-yield stocks rather than direct stock trading [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation is crucial for the global capital market's trajectory in the second half of the year and could significantly impact wealth over the next few years [1][6]. Summary by Sections Legislation Overview - The "One Big Beautiful Bills" legislation aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, primarily benefiting corporations and wealthy individuals to attract investment back into the U.S. manufacturing sector [7]. - The legislation's core logic involves providing tax cuts for the wealthy while increasing debt to maintain fiscal spending, leading to a historical high in U.S. debt exceeding $41 trillion [7]. Debt Management Strategy - The increase in U.S. debt is seen as a means to manage the debt crisis and maintain the dollar's hegemony, despite concerns about the declining credit quality of U.S. debt [9]. - The proposed "Pennsylvania Bill" aims to convert foreign-held debt into domestic debt, reducing reliance on foreign investors [11]. Economic Measures - The strategy includes depreciating the dollar and lowering interest rates to facilitate the debt replacement process, similar to Japan's long-term economic approach [13][15]. - The U.S. government may encourage domestic institutions to purchase long-term U.S. debt, potentially mandating retirement plans to allocate a significant portion to U.S. bonds [11]. Implications for Currency and Assets - The transition to domestic debt could lead to a depreciation of the dollar, impacting its status as the world's primary payment currency [16]. - The introduction of stablecoin legislation aims to maintain the dollar's relevance in international trade, allowing for indirect use of the dollar through digital currencies [16]. Investment Opportunities - The anticipated depreciation of the dollar and U.S. debt prices may create a favorable environment for safe-haven assets such as precious metals, high-dividend stocks, and stable income bonds [16]. - The recent regulatory changes regarding cash purchases of gold signal a shift towards valuing tangible assets, indicating potential investment strategies for wealth protection [16].

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing a rare and unusual phenomenon where both stock markets and commodities are rising simultaneously, despite the decline in oil and gold prices [1][4][7]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Major global stock indices have seen significant increases, with the US stock market reaching historical highs after a downturn earlier in the year [1][4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3400 points, marking a new high for the year [1]. - European indices such as France's CAC40, Germany's DAX, and the UK's FTSE 100 have also shown positive performance [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Commodities like copper, aluminum, and lead have experienced price increases, with copper prices surpassing $5 and aluminum reaching a three-month high [6][25]. - In contrast, oil and gold prices have declined, with Brent crude falling from $79 to $66 and gold dropping from 3452 to 3289 [8][9]. Group 3: Underlying Factors - The rise in global stock markets is closely linked to the depreciation of the US dollar, which has fallen from 101 to 97 since May [14][13]. - The US government's intention to weaken the dollar is aimed at reducing debt pressure and encouraging capital repatriation [16][15]. - The expectation of increased US debt and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is driving market sentiment [22][21]. Group 4: Capital Flow Dynamics - The disparity in commodity price movements is influenced by US purchasing behavior, with the US prioritizing the accumulation of certain commodities while neglecting others like oil and gold [28][27]. - The capital flow towards commodities that the US is willing to stockpile indicates a strategic approach to manage future costs amid a weaker dollar [24][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming month of July is critical, with potential further interest rate cuts and significant legislative actions expected [35][34]. - The overall market sentiment is characterized by uncertainty, particularly regarding the credibility of the dollar and US debt [39][40]. - Despite the current stock market rally, there are concerns that it may be a prelude to a downturn, necessitating caution and preparation for potential risks [41][42].

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 把虚拟加密货币，从之前的灰色地带，带入到了白色地带。 为什么央行现在这么着急地把稳定币推出来？ 官方的态度为什么变得这么快？ 主要还是因为 老美那边开始推行稳定币的制度化建设了。 老美立法确定稳定币可以和美元和美债挂钩，其实就是把比特币、以太坊这些加密货币和美元体 系绑定了。 大胡子财研社 . 真人实地调研，专注楼市研究10余年！大胡子教买房为您带来一手消息，助您预判楼市风向，实现资产 稳步增长！ 上周的 陆家嘴金融论坛 上，央行行长非常罕见地第一次公开肯定稳定币，他说了这么一句话： "稳定币实现了支付即结算，从底层重塑传统支付体系"。 这个表态，事实上就是把稳定币的地位给抬升了上来， 因为 当下全球加密货币的支付结算份额越来越大，购买力越来越强。 任何一个机构用这些稳定币支付结算，就相当于用美元支付结算。 老美想要稳定美元全球货币的地位，才出现稳定币和美元挂钩的法案。 说白了， 美国的稳定币法案，就是给美元印钱增加了一个合法的间接渠道。 目的就是把加密货币的结算份额和美元绑定，占领虚拟加密货币的结算份额，给美元续命。 而且更狠的是，稳定币如果出现问题，美元和美联储 ...

说一个扎心的数据： 根据机构统计的数据显示，这 几年居民财富 总市值从 400 万亿人民币，降到现在的 300 万亿， 大概损失了 100 万亿左右。 这其中，居民财富主要流失的份额，大多来自于房产。 所以这几年居民的财富缩水，基本上都是因为房子的价格回落。 这几年，相信大家都能意识到，此刻 我们正在经历一个财富不断减少的时代。 房子的价格为什么会回落？ 你可以说很多的原因，但是最根本的原因只有一个： 通S 在统计局公布的最新数据中，有两个关键的数据值得关注： 第一个 是 PPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是工厂的商品出厂价，下跌了3.3%； 第二个是 CPI数据 ，这项数据代表的是居民端买东西消费的价格，下跌3.6%。 这两个指数双双下跌，可以说紧缩已经形成了大趋势。 但老实说，通S本身其实并不可怕，对于多数人而言，真正可怕的是： 很多人还在用匹配通胀的资产结构应对着通S，做着错误的资产配置。 为什么说现在很多人正在做错误的资产配置？ 通Z周期最大的特点是什么？ 我认为就一个—— 实际利率为负，负债其实就是资产 。 别看之前通Z的时候银行的利率能高到5%甚至6%，实际上如果你把通胀率算上，每年增加7%-8% 的M ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of wealth transfer during economic crises, emphasizing that each crisis presents an opportunity for ordinary individuals to advance their wealth through strategic investments in real estate and emerging industries [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Wealth Transfers - The first major wealth transfer occurred in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, driven by industrialization and urbanization, which shifted wealth, population, and land resources from rural to urban areas [1]. - This wealth transfer was primarily facilitated through real estate, with 70% of Chinese wealth currently concentrated in housing, indicating that many individuals built their initial wealth through property investments [2]. Group 2: Recent Wealth Transfers - The second wealth transfer took place after the 2008 global financial crisis, largely fueled by the internet industry revolution, which redirected funds from real estate to online platforms, benefiting tech giants and their stakeholders [2]. - Ordinary individuals could participate in this wealth transfer by either working for major internet companies or investing in their stocks [2]. Group 3: Future Wealth Transfer - A potential third wealth transfer is anticipated in the next 5-10 years, influenced by the current economic downturn and the movement of funds from banks to other sectors [3]. - The focus is on directing these funds towards the capital market, particularly in the context of China's ambition to become a financial powerhouse, which would support industrial growth and technological advancements [8][9]. Group 4: Capital Market Dynamics - The article suggests that if a significant amount of deposits, estimated at 10 trillion, flows into the capital market, it could stabilize and potentially elevate market indices, indicating a positive outlook for the future [16]. - The capital market is expected to become a new tool for wealth distribution, potentially replacing real estate as the primary asset class for wealth accumulation [16]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - While the article highlights the potential for capital market growth, it advises caution in stock trading due to the current market volatility and the risks associated with individual trading decisions [17][20]. - The recommendation is to allocate funds towards more stable assets until the market shows clearer signs of recovery [21].