以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 上一次的 陆家嘴金融论坛 上，央行行长非常罕见地第一次公开肯定稳定币，他说了这么一句话： "稳定币实现了支付即结算，从底层重塑传统支付体系"。 这个表态，事实上就是把稳定币的地位给抬升了上来， 把虚拟加密货币，从之前的灰色地带，带入到了白色地带。 为什么央行现在这么着急地把稳定币推出来？ 官方的态度为什么变得这么快？ 主要还是因为 老美那边开始推行稳定币的制度化建设了。 老美立法确定稳定币可以和美元和美债挂钩，其实就是把比特币、以太坊这些加密货币和美元体 系绑定了。 因为 当下全球加密货币的支付结算份额越来越大，购买力越来越强。 老美想要稳定美元全球货币的地位，才出现稳定币和美元挂钩的法案。 目的就是把加密货币的结算份额和美元绑定，占领虚拟加密货币的结算份额，给美元续命。 所以这个法案一旦成行， 加密货币就会变成美元兑换券。 说白了， 美国的稳定币法案，就是给美元印钱增加了一个合法的间接渠道。 而且更狠的是，稳定币如果出现问题，美元和美联储还不用负责，因为它和美元只是绑定关系 ...

大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 这两天，港元汇率突然出现了大幅度的反弹！ 以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 美元兑港元汇率，从5月份拉到7.85的强方保证之后，一直维持在7.84-7.85这个区间差不多3个月。 最近这个指标终于有了松动。 从8月15号开始， 美元港币下调到了7.81，港元币值在短期内快速升值。 那在没有任何预兆的情况下，为什么港元会突然地快速升值？ 首先第一个原因是 香港金管局的持续干预。 金管局最近几天开始大量回收港元，削弱了港元的流动性。 这一点最好的证明就是 港币的利率hibor 。 上周三，香港hibor的隔夜拆息利率还是0.177%，但一周之后的今天，隔夜拆息利率就涨到了2.787%。 | 香港時間2025-8-20 | 上午11時15分的結算率。 | 過往利率 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025 | | ∨ 八月 | V | | | | | 到期日 | 港元利息结算率 | | | | | ...

最近这两周，大多数人可能都在关注大A的行情。 但真正关键的信息和信号，藏在市场的细节之中， 往往不被大多数人察觉。 在股市行情占据热点版面的背后，其实有一个更加能体现未来资本市场风向的重要信号，被大家忽略了。 这个关键的信号就是： 债券市场的变化 这两天， 国债几乎全线下调 ，其中中长期债券的下调，尤为明显。 和大A连续创下新高不同，国债的价格开始连续创下新低。 就拿 国债期货 来说： 国债30年期主力合约 单日下跌 1.33% ，创下3月17日以来最大降幅，收盘价也创下3月24日以来的新低。 技术面上看，30年国债期货的周K线级别，接近走出一个 "双顶" 形态。 懂技术面的朋友都知道，这是 典型的趋势向下的信号， 预示着接下来30年期国债期货还有继续下跌的空间。 除了30年期国债之外，10年期的主力合约，也下 跌了 0.29%， 5年期合约，跌幅同样达到 0.21%。 和价格下跌同步进行的，是债券收益率的上行。 30年期国债的 收益率上行 6.10个基点 至 2.055% ，时隔4个月重回 2%上 方。 10年期国债 收益率上行 4个基点到 1.785% ，超过7月底的高点。 债券的价格和收益率，是负相关的 ...

今天大A延续了上涨趋势，日内最高价逼近3800点，成交量连续多日冲上2万亿。 最近一个多月大A的连续上涨，似乎重新唤醒了菜场大妈的炒股基因。 热搜上的股市热搜也开始逐渐增加，讨论越来越多。 大A的热度，甚至都吸引了韩国人入场。 数据显示： 韩国人对中国股票的持仓量，从2024年末的190.83亿元人民币上涨至244.75亿元，增长近三成。 这样的市场热度，不禁让很多人想起10年前2015年那一波牛市行情。 2015年的牛市，是东大历史上最大规模的一波牛市，但也是最大规模的一次牛转熊。 股市从3200点涨到最高5178点，随后半年内迅速跌回到了2638点，最大跌幅达到49%。 总市值蒸发 25.5万亿元 ，缩水幅度达 36%。 30%的个股跌幅超过一半，超95%的投资者在那一轮牛市转熊市的行情中亏损，不少人甚至是输光身家。 而这一轮牛市，起点和10年前差不多，都是3200点。 这不禁会让很多人本能地产生一个疑问： 这一轮大A的强势行情，会不会复制2015年那一波行情的轨迹，先来个牛市，然后迅速大跌回到原点？ 毕竟十年前的教训，实在太过惨烈。 今天的文章，我就给大家做一个比较深度的分析。 大家如果能把文章看完，你 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant changes in the bond market, particularly the decline in government bond prices and the rise in yields, which are critical signals for the future direction of the capital market [1][2][9]. Group 1: Bond Market Changes - Recently, government bonds have seen a widespread decline, especially in medium to long-term bonds [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond futures experienced a notable drop of 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 17, with closing prices hitting new lows since March 24 [3][4]. - The yields on government bonds are rising, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 6.10 basis points to 2.055%, returning above 2% for the first time in four months [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in bond prices and the simultaneous rise in yields indicate a weakening demand for bonds, suggesting that the attractiveness of bonds is diminishing [12][13]. - The article discusses the traditional inverse relationship between the stock and bond markets, where a strong stock market typically correlates with a weak bond market [15][16]. - However, the article argues that the current weakness in the bond market is not solely due to this stock-bond dynamic, as both short-term and long-term bonds are experiencing price and yield changes [19][24]. Group 3: Economic Expectations - The shift from a deflationary trading environment to an inflationary one is highlighted as a key factor influencing the bond market's performance [31][32]. - Recent economic indicators, such as rising CPI and increasing commodity prices, suggest a warming inflation outlook [36][37]. - The article notes that external factors, including increased foreign investment and potential policy changes, are contributing to a positive shift in market expectations [42][43]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the worst phase for the capital market has likely passed, and a prolonged recovery period is anticipated, with trading dynamics shifting towards inflation-driven strategies [48][49]. - The current market conditions indicate that the bond market may continue to weaken while the stock market remains strong, suggesting a new normal for capital market behavior [50].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bullish trend in the A-share market, highlighting significant milestones such as the market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high of 3740 points, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [4][6][7]. Market Performance - A-share market capitalization has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3740 points, a ten-year peak, while the ChiNext Index and the North Star 50 Index also hit record highs [4]. - Despite a slight pullback in the afternoon, the market has stabilized above 3700 points, confirming the bullish market logic [6][7]. Investor Behavior - The current market rally is driven by a significant influx of previously sidelined funds entering the market, as many investors were caught off guard by the sudden bullish trend [12][15]. - The article notes that the market is experiencing a shift in capital, with early investors taking profits while new entrants are buying in, leading to temporary sell-offs [18]. Key Variables Influencing Market Direction - **Deposits and Retail Investor Sentiment**: The article emphasizes the importance of retail investor participation, noting that current enthusiasm is lower compared to previous bull markets. The lack of widespread retail engagement suggests that significant capital has yet to enter the market [21][23][25]. - **U.S. Federal Reserve Policies**: The uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is highlighted as a critical factor that could impact market performance. The article suggests that any changes in U.S.-China trade policies could also affect market sentiment [26][30]. - **Corporate Earnings Reports**: The upcoming release of corporate half-year reports is expected to have a substantial impact on market expectations. Poor earnings from small-cap stocks, which have seen significant price increases, could lead to a market correction [31][33]. Long-term Outlook - The article maintains a positive long-term outlook for the A-share market, suggesting that the current state resembles previous bullish phases in 2014 and 2020, indicating potential for continued upward movement over the next six months [34][42]. - The technical analysis of the Shanghai Composite Index's MACD indicator suggests a bullish trend, reinforcing the expectation of a sustained market rally [36][38]. Investment Strategy - The article encourages investors to identify relative low points for entry, emphasizing the importance of timing in capitalizing on the ongoing bullish trend [44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent introduction of taxes on bond interest and overseas investment income signals a shift in the government's approach to asset investment profits, indicating an expectation of increased returns from capital markets in the future [1][11]. Group 1: Taxation Changes - The government has announced the taxation of interest from national and local bonds, ending the era of tax exemption on bond interest [1]. - There are rumors of a 20% personal income tax on profits from overseas stock investments, indicating a broader trend of taxing asset investment profits [1]. - The anticipated revenue from bond interest taxation could reach 50 billion annually, suggesting a significant increase in the scale of national debt [2]. Group 2: National Debt and Economic Signals - The potential revenue from bond interest tax implies that the national debt could reach approximately 50 trillion, three times the current scale, which may lead to more aggressive monetary stimulus [2]. - The introduction of asset profit taxation indicates that the economy is transitioning into a new industrialization cycle, which is crucial for understanding investment and asset pricing [2][3]. Group 3: Industrialization Cycle - The industrialization cycle is divided into four stages: initial accumulation, growth, maturity, and post-industrialization [4][5]. - The current phase is characterized by a shift from industrial growth to maturity, where the financing ratio between industrial and financial sectors becomes more balanced [8]. - In the maturity phase, a developed financial market is essential for optimizing investments and providing individuals with opportunities for wealth accumulation [9][10]. Group 4: Future Investment Landscape - As the financial market develops, personal income from capital investments is expected to rise, potentially equating to wage income [11]. - The recent surge in the stock market may not be an isolated event but could become a regular occurrence as the economy evolves [11]. - Investors are encouraged to adapt to the changing landscape of industrialization and seek opportunities in the capital market while managing risks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resilience of the Chinese stock market (A-shares) amidst global market declines following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, suggesting that the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts could benefit the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3617.60, gaining 34.29 points (+0.96%), while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext also saw increases [2]. - Despite global market turmoil, the Chinese market experienced a two-day rally, defying expectations of a downturn [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The article attributes the strength of the Chinese market to the potential shift in capital flows due to U.S. interest rate cuts, which could favor the Chinese economy [3]. - A significant factor in China's economic struggles is identified as the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., with the current U.S. federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and China's 5-year LPR at 3.5%, creating a roughly 1% difference [4]. - The disparity in deposit rates is even more pronounced, with U.S. 1-year fixed deposit rates between 4%-4.6% compared to China's 0.95%, leading to a deposit rate differential exceeding 4% [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, China's interest rates were higher than those in the U.S. until around mid-2022, when the trend reversed, coinciding with a downturn in China's real estate market and economic performance [12][16]. - The article highlights that the interest rate differential is a key indicator of China's economic health, with a widening gap indicating potential economic challenges [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that if the U.S. Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle, it could lead to a recovery in China's stock and real estate markets, similar to the rebound seen after the last significant rate cuts in 2020 [18]. - Investors are advised to monitor two key indicators: the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of increasing money supply (M2) without corresponding inflation or asset price increases, raising questions about the flow of this new money and its implications for the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Money Supply and Inflation - M2 balance reached 330.29 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating an increase in the money supply [1]. - CPI rose slightly to 0.1%, while PPI fell to -3.6%, suggesting persistent low inflation despite the increase in money supply [1][3]. Group 2: Allocation of New Money - Approximately 30% of the new money has flowed to the government through bond financing, used for debt repayment and infrastructure investments [4]. - About 60% of the new money has gone to enterprises, primarily for production expansion, leading to potential overproduction and price deflation [5]. Group 3: Export and Currency Dynamics - Trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of 2025, while foreign currency deposits hit a record high of 824.87 billion USD [7][8]. - Many export companies are retaining their foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, which limits domestic liquidity and complicates inflation dynamics [10][12]. Group 4: Capital Market Strategies - The article suggests that enhancing the capital market, particularly in Hong Kong, is crucial for attracting foreign and repatriated funds, with measures like allowing mainland investors to buy Hong Kong stocks [11]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may further incentivize capital to flow into Hong Kong's market [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent economic data shows a mixed picture, with CPI rising while new RMB loans have turned negative, indicating a complex economic situation [2][4][8] - In July, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking a shift from a decline to an increase, which suggests initial success in combating deflation [4][6][7] - The negative new RMB loans of -500 billion yuan in July represent the first negative value since July 2005, highlighting a significant decline in overall loan activity [9][12][13] Group 2 - The decline in new loans is attributed to banks actively reducing bill financing, with a decrease of 4.5 trillion yuan in July compared to the previous year [15][16] - The reduction in bill financing is linked to the end of the half-year performance assessment for banks, leading to a decrease in loan volume as banks redeemed maturing bills [17][18] - The anti-involution movement has caused many enterprises to halt unrestrained capacity expansion, contributing to the significant drop in new loans [19][20][21] Group 3 - The article suggests that the reduction in new loans is understandable as the anti-involution aims to end deflation, albeit with short-term economic pain [23][24][25] - The article posits that to completely overcome deflation, there needs to be a substantial increase in government investment and leverage [29][30][31] - The article emphasizes the importance of repatriating foreign trade earnings that have been invested overseas, which is a significant factor in the ongoing deflationary environment [35][36][42] Group 4 - The article discusses the need for the government to increase its leverage to stimulate economic growth, as the current leverage ratio is lower than that of many developed countries [31][32] - It highlights that the return of foreign trade earnings is more critical than anti-involution or increasing fiscal stimulus to resolve deflation [42][43] - The article notes that the government has recognized this issue and is supporting capital markets to attract funds back into the domestic economy [43][45]