Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1]. Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.08% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 sectors [1]. - The report highlights the need for policy catalysts to stimulate demand, particularly in the liquor segment, where production has been declining [2]. - The beer sector is expected to see a recovery in consumption scenarios due to improving costs and potential policy support [3]. - The snack segment is benefiting from rapid revenue and profit growth, driven by channel expansion and declining raw material costs [4]. - The dairy sector is seeing positive demand trends, with an emphasis on product upgrades and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel penetration [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 4.08%, with all sub-sectors also experiencing downturns. The top five gainers were Guifaxiang (+13.20%), *ST Xifa (+8.80%), BeiYinMei (+7.71%), BaiHe Co. (+7.14%), and Meihua Biological (+6.41%). The top five losers included Xiangpiaopiao (-16.73%), Jiajia Food (-12.37%), Qinghai Spring (-12.21%), Three Squirrels (-10.82%), and Bairun Co. (-10.44%) [1][25]. Liquor Industry - In October, the production of liquor in China decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a notable focus on the impact of policy changes on demand. New product launches by companies like Jinshiyuan aim to enhance brand strength in the mid-price segment [2]. Beer Industry - The beer production in October was 180.7 million liters, down 2.3% year-on-year. Despite a weak demand environment, cost improvements are expected to enhance profitability, and there is optimism for a recovery in consumption scenarios [3]. Snack and Dairy Segments - The snack sector showed strong revenue and profit growth in Q3, attributed to channel expansion and lower raw material costs. The dairy sector is also seeing positive trends, with a focus on health-oriented products and increasing acceptance of low-temperature dairy products [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands and regional leaders, with specific stock recommendations including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. For the beer sector, Qingdao Beer is highlighted as a core investment target. In the snack segment, companies like Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Foods are recommended, while for the dairy sector, New Dairy is noted for its product upgrades and DTC channel growth [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector, indicating a neutral outlook on investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) demand is steadily increasing, with the expected retail sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.28 million units in November, translating to a penetration rate of approximately 53.3%. The overall market for new energy vehicles is projected to grow by 20.0% year-on-year, reaching 11.5 million units in 2024 [4][21]. - The supply side of the industry is undergoing orderly adjustments, leading to price stabilization across various materials, including lithium salts and battery components [22][4]. - The domestic energy storage market is experiencing high growth, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 23.42 GW/58.86 GWh by the end of October 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 118% [25][24]. Summary by Sections Battery Sector - **Market Performance**: The battery sector saw a slight decline of 0.71% in the week of November 18-24, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.89 percentage points. Major inflows were noted in companies like Shenghua New Materials and Putailai, while major outflows were observed in CATL and Shanghai Electric [29][3]. - **Demand Growth**: The demand for electric vehicles is supported by policies such as vehicle scrappage and trade-in programs, with new models launched at the Guangzhou Auto Show enhancing consumer interest [4][21]. - **Supply Adjustments**: The lithium salt market is characterized by ongoing price fluctuations, while the prices of cathode materials are stabilizing amid a supply surplus. The prices of anode materials remain close to cost levels, indicating limited downward potential [22][4]. Energy Storage Sector - **Tender Projects**: In the week ending November 22, 2024, there were 16 new tender projects in the energy storage market, with a total scale of 3.48 GW/13.57 GWh. The average winning bid for energy storage EPC projects was 1.13 yuan/Wh, showing a slight decrease [24][49]. - **Market Growth**: The energy storage market is maintaining a high growth rate, with new installations in October 2024 reaching 2.04 GW/5.50 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 236% [25][24]. - **Company Focus**: Companies like Sungrow Electric have established a full industry chain layout in energy storage, including upstream inverters and downstream power stations, positioning themselves favorably in the market [27][7]. Investment Recommendations - **CATL**: As a global leader in lithium batteries, CATL is expected to ship 480 GWh in 2024, with an estimated profit of 50.5 billion yuan. The company is increasing its self-supply ratio of lithium salts, which will support its production capacity [5][23]. - **Sungrow Electric**: The company is benefiting from the upgrade of power grid investment structures and has turned profitable, leveraging its advantages in the charging operation market [5][23].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [3][8]. Core Insights - Nvidia reported a 94% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, with a net profit increase of 100%. The Blackwell chip is expected to significantly support revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [4][20]. - The IC China 2024 event highlighted key themes such as AI industry transformation, semiconductor market recovery, and international cooperation within the semiconductor supply chain [5]. - The electronic industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery phase, with a recommendation to pay attention to specific sectors that are expected to benefit from technological advancements and market trends [3][8]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Nvidia's Q3 revenue reached $35.08 billion, up 94% year-on-year, with a net profit of $19.31 billion, marking a 109% increase. The demand for the Blackwell chip is described as "amazing," with shipments expected to accelerate in 2025 [20][21]. - The IC China 2024 event forecasted a 15% to 20% growth in the global semiconductor industry for the year, with the market size projected to exceed $600 billion [5]. - Huawei is set to launch its Mate 70 series on November 26, featuring significant upgrades in design and performance [20]. Market Performance - The report notes that the electronic sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index down 2.60% and the Shenwan Electronic Index down 3.29% [7][28]. - As of November 22, various sub-sectors within the electronic industry showed declines, including semiconductors (-2.86%) and consumer electronics (-3.93%) [28][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: 1. AIOT sector, with companies like Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology. 2. AI innovation-driven sector, including computing chips and optical devices. 3. Domestic supply chain replacement in semiconductor equipment and materials. 4. Consumer electronics, which are expected to rebound [8].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月25日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241125 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张帆远 S0630524070002 zfy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1. 珠海航展显实力，特朗普效应影响国际市场——宏观双周报（20241111-20241122） ➢ 2. 黄金定价逻辑的变与不变——商品深度研究专题（一） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.李强主持召开国务院常务会议 研究推动平台经济健康发展有关工作 ➢ 2.稳外贸新举措 ➢ 3.国家数据局：到2029年基本建成国家数据基础设施主体结构 ➢ 4.特朗普拟选择美联储前理事凯文·沃什担任财政部长 ➢ 5.日本首相石破茂：政府将从一般账户中拨出13.9万亿日元用于经济刺激计划 ➢ 6.美国11月全球制造业PMI符合预期 ➢ 7.欧元区11月制造业PMI终值低于预期 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | --- | |--- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The short-term growth rate of the domestic automation equipment market is slowing down, with key sub-industries such as industrial robots facing price competition despite a 13.3% year-on-year increase in production from January to October 2024 [5][15] - Domestic leading companies are expected to expand overseas, supported by policies promoting automation and intelligent upgrades in manufacturing [6][21] - Companies like Estun and Huichuan Technology are actively pursuing international markets, with Estun's overseas revenue reaching 730 million yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [6][26] Summary by Sections Data Tracking - The average revenue growth rate in the automation equipment sector has slowed since 2021, with specific products like low-voltage inverters and PLCs showing a decline in market size in the first half of 2024 [5][15] - The average sales gross margin for the industrial robot sector has decreased from 35.0% in 2019 to 26.5% in Q3 2024, indicating pressure on profitability [5][15] Overseas Expansion of Domestic Automation Companies - Estun has established a global presence through multiple acquisitions, with 11 manufacturing bases and 75 service points worldwide, achieving significant growth in overseas revenue [21][24] - Huichuan Technology's overseas revenue grew from 340 million yuan in 2019 to 1.74 billion yuan in 2023, with a strong growth momentum and higher gross margins compared to domestic sales [26][29] Industry Dynamics - The machine tool industry experienced a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with significant drops in profitability [33] - Fixed asset investments in sectors like water conservancy and transportation equipment manufacturing have shown strong growth, influenced by policy support [19][20] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.60%, while the machinery equipment sector outperformed with a decline of only 0.33%, ranking 6th among 31 sectors [36][37]

Group 1 - The report highlights that in October 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 453.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 3.9% [10][11] - Urban and rural markets both showed growth, with urban retail sales at 392.55 billion yuan (up 4.7% year-on-year) and rural retail sales at 61.41 billion yuan (up 4.9% year-on-year) [10][11] - Online consumption growth outpaced offline, with online retail sales of goods and services increasing by 8.8% and 8.3% year-on-year respectively [10][11] Group 2 - The automotive parts industry is experiencing significant changes due to the acceleration of electric and intelligent vehicle trends, leading to a reshaping of customer structures [14][15] - Investment themes include the penetration of advanced driving technologies (L2.9) and the acceleration of L3/L4 industrialization, with a focus on related segments such as domain controllers and steer-by-wire systems [14][15] - The report suggests that the domestic supply chain is gaining a stronger position in the global market, driven by local suppliers expanding overseas and breaking the traditional dominance of multinational Tier 1 suppliers [15]

Key Recommendations - The automotive parts industry is experiencing a shift towards intelligence and high-end features, driven by the rapid advancement of electric and smart technologies. The restructuring of downstream automotive companies is a critical short-term reference point, with significant players like Tesla, Li Auto, Huawei, and Xiaomi shaping the market landscape [10][11] - Investment themes to focus on include: 1. Smart Driving: The penetration of L2.9 advanced driving systems is accelerating, with L3/L4 industrialization processes speeding up. The high-end market is seeing increased adoption of end-to-end solutions, enhancing capabilities in extreme scenarios [10] 2. Configuration Upgrades: The mid-to-high-end market is expanding, with new entrants challenging traditional luxury brands. This shift is leading to a downward trend in luxury configurations, as new players leverage cost-effective local production and innovative designs [11] 3. Global Expansion: Local suppliers are transitioning from domestic to global markets, following the lead of benchmark companies like Tesla. This transition is expected to enhance the competitive position of domestic suppliers in the global supply chain [11] Industry Insights - The industrial robotics sector is heavily influenced by the automotive industry, with applications in welding, assembly, and quality inspection. The historical growth of Japan's automotive sector has significantly supported the demand for industrial robots [12][14] - The sales structure of industrial robots in Japan is evolving, with a notable shift towards diversified applications beyond traditional automotive uses. The market is increasingly focusing on capturing discrete demands to support growth in new areas [14][15] - Leading companies like Fanuc have established a global presence since the 1970s, forming joint ventures to enhance their market share and technological capabilities. Fanuc's revenue sources are diversifying, with a significant portion now coming from robotics, reflecting a shift in business structure [16][18] Economic Indicators - In November, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.1% and the five-year LPR at 3.6% [19] - In October, China's total electricity consumption increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with significant growth in various sectors, indicating a robust economic activity [20] Market Performance - The A-share market showed positive momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3367 points, up 0.66%. The market is characterized by significant net inflows, particularly in sectors like gaming and internet services, while traditional banking stocks faced declines [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Market Weight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [59]. Core Insights - In October 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,396 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 3.9% [10][11]. - Both urban and rural markets maintained growth, with online and offline consumption performing well, benefiting from the early "Double 11" promotions and strong consumption during the National Day holiday [10][11]. - The report highlights that rural market sales growth continues to outpace urban sales due to rapid income growth among rural residents and ongoing development of county-level commercial systems [10][11]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The overall retail sales in October 2024 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations [10]. - Urban retail sales amounted to 39,255 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, while rural retail sales reached 6,141 billion yuan, growing by 4.9% [10][11]. By Category - Both dining and retail sales showed year-on-year increases, with dining services totaling 4,952 billion yuan, up 3.2%, and retail sales reaching 40,444 billion yuan, up 5.0% [21]. - The report notes that optional consumption categories, such as sports and entertainment products, clothing, and cosmetics, experienced significant growth, with increases of 26.7%, 8.0%, and 40.1% respectively [29]. Price Performance - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year in October 2024, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9% [32][39]. - The report indicates that food prices, particularly for fresh vegetables and fruits, saw significant year-on-year increases, while non-food prices showed mixed results [39]. Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in October 2024 was 5.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [48][50]. - The unemployment rate for migrant workers was reported at 4.7%, indicating a slight increase but still better than the overall urban unemployment rate [52]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the tobacco and alcohol sectors may see a rebound due to improved channel management and ongoing consumption policies [56]. - In the cosmetics sector, companies like Giant Bio and Proya are highlighted for their strong performance, with recommendations to focus on brands with strong product capabilities and consumer recognition [56].

Group 1: Beauty and Personal Care Industry - The beauty and personal care sector underperformed the market, with the industry index down 6.88% compared to a 3.29% drop in the CSI 300 index, marking a 3.59 percentage point underperformance [10] - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, the total sales across e-commerce platforms reached 1.4418 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%, with live-streaming sales growing by 54.6% [11] - The domestic brand Proya ranked first in sales on major platforms, with significant year-on-year growth across various channels, indicating strong performance among local brands [13] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 3.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.27 percentage points, ranking 15th among 31 sectors [17] - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.54 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, exceeding expectations [18] - The liquor segment is expected to recover as the market stabilizes, with major brands like Wuliangye enhancing consumer trust through improved channel management [19] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 2.46%, with the overall market sentiment affected by the recent Guangzhou Auto Show showcasing new models [26] - BYD is expanding into the mid-to-high-end market with new models set to launch, indicating a strategic shift towards premium offerings [27] - The introduction of global models by brands like Leap Motor and Lynk & Co reflects a focus on international expansion and diversification of product offerings [28] Group 4: Industrial Robotics Industry - The industrial robotics sector is evolving with a focus on automation in the automotive industry, driven by technological advancements and changing market demands [31] - Japanese companies like Fanuc are expanding globally, with a significant portion of their revenue now coming from markets outside Japan, particularly China [34] - The domestic market for industrial robots is growing, with a 5% year-on-year increase in sales, highlighting the potential for local manufacturers to capture market share [34]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the lithium battery industry, indicating a recovery phase and future growth potential driven by innovation [1]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is at the bottom of its cycle, with innovation expected to lead future growth. The report emphasizes the importance of new technologies and materials in driving the industry's evolution [1][5]. - The demand for lithium batteries is projected to grow significantly, with global demand expected to reach 1,461 GWh by 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 25% [26][29]. - The report highlights the increasing market share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which accounted for 67.3% of total battery installations in 2023, surpassing ternary batteries [29]. Summary by Sections 1. Lithium Battery Sector Review - The report reviews the historical performance of the lithium battery sector, noting significant growth periods driven by government subsidies and the rise of electric vehicles [8][10]. - It discusses the impact of policy changes on market dynamics, particularly the reduction of subsidies and the shift towards self-sustaining demand [10][17]. 2. Current State of the Lithium Industry Chain - The report outlines the current state of the lithium battery supply chain, including raw material sourcing, production processes, and market competition [25][41]. - It notes that the industry is experiencing overcapacity, with a focus on high-quality production capabilities becoming increasingly important [32]. 3. New Directions and Technologies in Lithium Batteries - The report identifies emerging technologies such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries as key areas for future development [1][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of energy density improvements and cost reductions in driving adoption [16][39]. 4. Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report concludes with investment recommendations, suggesting that companies with strong production capabilities and innovative technologies are well-positioned for growth [1][32]. - It highlights the potential for increased market concentration as weaker players exit the market due to competitive pressures [32][41].