[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月17日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250317 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 wangyang@longone.com.cn [Table_Report] ➢ 1.海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） ➢ 2.通胀压力短期缓解，关税压力仍存不确定性——海外观察：2025年2月美国CPI ➢ 1.中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》 ➢ 2.国务院第八次全体会议：要更加注重加大政策力度和激发市场力量良性互动、协同发力 ➢ 3.央行：着力推动提升重大战略、重点领域和薄弱 ...

Investment Rating - The market index rating is bullish, indicating that the CSI 300 index is expected to rise by 20% or more in the next six months [39]. Core Insights - The report highlights the volatility of overseas data and the certainty of domestic assets, suggesting that domestic equity assets are favored amidst global uncertainties [8][6]. - The report notes a short-term easing of inflation pressures in the U.S., with the February CPI rising by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9% [14][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming domestic economic data, including industrial production and retail sales, which will reflect the impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus on real estate prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Data and Domestic Asset Certainty - Global equity markets showed mixed performance, with U.S. stocks adjusting while A-shares performed well. Gold prices reached new highs, while oil and copper prices increased [6]. - The report indicates that the domestic equity market is currently favored due to its relative stability compared to the uncertainties in the U.S. economy [8]. 2. Inflation Pressure and Tariff Uncertainty - The U.S. February CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with core CPI at 3.1%, reflecting a decrease in inflationary pressures [14][13]. - The report suggests that while inflation is easing, the impact of tariffs has not yet fully manifested in the CPI data, indicating potential future volatility [17][14]. 3. A-Share Market Commentary - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a significant increase, closing up 60 points, or 1.81%, supported by strong buying momentum [30]. - The report notes that the market sentiment has improved, with substantial net inflows into various sectors, particularly insurance and beverage manufacturing [31][32]. 4. Economic Policy Developments - The Chinese government has introduced a consumption stimulus plan aimed at boosting consumer spending and stabilizing the real estate market [19][20]. - The central bank is focusing on enhancing financing accessibility for key sectors and promoting consumption finance to support economic recovery [24][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [10] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the People's Bank of China released financial data for February, indicating a marginal slowdown in credit due to the high volume of lending in January. Government financing has significantly supported social financing, countering the negative impact of the slowdown in corporate and household credit. Notably, household credit in January-February reached a five-year low, raising concerns about the urgency to stabilize household credit [7][8] - Government financing has accelerated, with new government bonds issued amounting to 1.69 trillion yuan in February, an increase of 1.10 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. This accounted for 75% of the new social financing, which rose to 8.20% [7][8] - The report indicates a marginal slowdown in credit issuance to enterprises and individuals, with new RMB loans in February totaling 650.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 326.7 billion yuan. The decline in corporate credit is attributed to the high lending in January and the accelerated pace of government debt management [7][8] - Future credit efforts may focus on optimizing structure, with an increased emphasis on stabilizing household credit. The government aims to support consumption and small businesses, as indicated by recent fiscal policies [7][8] - Monetary supply remains stable, with M2 and M1 growing by 7.0% and 0.1% year-on-year, respectively. The report notes that the tightening of funding rates has led banks to stabilize their interest margins, promoting rational loan pricing [7][8] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The report emphasizes the positive impact of macroeconomic policies and the need to focus on stable dividends and recovery potential in the banking sector [3] Credit Market Trends - The report discusses the trends in credit issuance, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to support both corporate and household sectors [7][8] Government Financing - Government financing has played a crucial role in supporting social financing growth, with significant increases in bond issuance [7][8] Interest Rate Environment - The report suggests that the current monetary policy environment is relatively favorable for interest margins, with expectations of a less severe decline in margins compared to previous years [9] Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on stable dividends and recovery potential, particularly in state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks [9]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月16日 [海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性 Table_NewTitle] ——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 策 略 研 究 图表目录 | 图 1 全球主要大类资产周度表现， % . | | --- | | 图 2 中债美债周度表现，BP … | | 图 3 申万一级行业周度涨跌幅，%，… | | 图 4 原油价格，美元/桶 …………… ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月16日 [海外数据波动与国内资产的确定性 Table_NewTitle] ——资产配置周报（2025/03/10-2025/03/14） [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 策 略 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾：3月14日当周，全球股市表现分化，美股继续调整，A股表现亮眼；主 要商品期货中黄金创新高，原油、铜上涨，铝收跌；美元指数小幅回落，日元贬值，欧元 和人民币小幅升 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in its new AIoT products, with a product matrix that is expanding into new markets. The revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by approximately 40% due to the successful launch of new products and an increase in market demand [4][39]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing market size of its target segments, with the potential to expand its market capacity to 2.5 times the current IoT device market [4]. - The company is focusing on a "connect + process" product strategy, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the AIoT sector [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2008, specializes in the research and sales of IoT chips and modules, becoming a leading supplier in the global Wi-Fi MCU market [12]. - The company has launched several successful product lines, including the ESP8266 and ESP32 series, which have gained widespread recognition for their performance and cost-effectiveness [12][14]. AIoT Market - The global IoT device connection count is projected to grow from 8 billion in 2018 to 27 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for Wi-Fi and Bluetooth chips, with the global Wi-Fi chip market projected to reach $34.5 billion by 2033 [4]. Product Strategy - The company has a diverse product lineup, including classic products, new products, and next-generation products, with a focus on enhancing AI capabilities [17]. - The new product lines, such as ESP32-C5 and ESP32-C6, are expected to see significant growth starting in 2025 [20]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of approximately 2.01 billion, 2.63 billion, and 3.37 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.07%, 31.06%, and 28.18% [4][5]. - The gross margin is expected to remain above 40% in 2024, supported by improved operational efficiency and a favorable competitive landscape [4][39]. Management and Governance - The company's management team has a strong technical background, with significant experience in the semiconductor industry, which enhances its strategic direction and operational execution [33][36].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in its new AIoT products, with a product matrix that is expanding into new markets. The revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by approximately 40% due to the successful launch of new products and an increase in market demand [4][39]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing market size of its target sectors, with the potential to expand its market capacity to 2.5 times the current IoT device market [4]. - The company is focusing on a "connect + process" product strategy, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the AIoT sector [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2008 and headquartered in Shanghai, specializes in IoT chips and modules. It has become a leading supplier of Wi-Fi MCU chips globally, with a significant market presence [12][14]. - The company has a diverse product line that includes classic products, new products, and next-generation products, with a focus on enhancing AI capabilities [17]. AIoT Market - The global IoT device connection count is projected to grow from 8 billion in 2018 to 27 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the domestic market's shift towards localization and the high growth of the AIoT industry [4]. Financial Performance - The company has shown stable revenue growth from 2019 to 2023, with a CAGR of 17.3%. The revenue for 2024 is forecasted to reach 2.01 billion, reflecting a 40% increase [39]. - The gross margin is expected to remain above 40%, supported by a favorable cost structure and an expanding product line [41]. Product Strategy - The company is expanding its product offerings to include new models such as C5, C6, H2, H4, and P4, which are anticipated to enter the market in 2025 [20]. - The product matrix is increasingly focused on high-performance and cost-effective solutions, catering to various applications in consumer electronics and smart home devices [19]. Business Model - The company employs a B2D2B business model that fosters a developer ecosystem, enhancing customer engagement and product adoption [26]. - The acquisition of M5Stack is expected to strengthen the company's market position and enhance its product offerings in the developer community [31].

Group 1: Economic Overview - Inflation pressure in the US has eased in the short term, with February CPI rising by 2.8% year-on-year, below the expected 2.9% and previous 3.0%. Month-on-month, it increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.5% [7][8] - Core CPI for February rose by 3.1% year-on-year, below the expected 3.2% and matching the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [7][8] - The decline in oil prices has contributed to the easing of inflation, although the impact of tariffs has not yet been fully reflected in the data [7][11] Group 2: Company Analysis - 帝科股份 (300842) - The company reported a revenue of 15.351 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.85%, with a net profit of 360 million yuan, down 6.66% year-on-year [14][15] - The sales volume of photovoltaic conductive silver paste reached 2037.69 tons in 2024, an increase of 18.91% year-on-year, with 89.10% of sales attributed to N-type TOPCon battery products [14][15] - The company is expected to achieve large-scale production of high-copper paste in the second half of the year, with ongoing collaborations with leading customers [15][16] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 17.079 billion yuan, 19.031 billion yuan, and 21.320 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.26%, 11.43%, and 12.03% respectively [16] - The expected net profits for the same period are 501 million yuan, 611 million yuan, and 702 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.89x, 11.39x, and 9.92x [16] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its strong market position and ongoing technological advancements [16]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月14日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250314 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1.通胀压力短期缓解，关税压力仍存不确定性——海外观察：2025年2月美国CPI ➢ 2.帝科股份（300842）： 业绩稳步发展，高铜浆料有望量产——公司简评报告 ➢ 1.央行党委召开扩大会议，研究部署贯彻落实举措 ➢ 2.美国2月PPI低于预期 1.重点推荐 1.1.通胀压力短期缓解，关税压力仍存不确定性——海外观察： 2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 证券分析师：刘思佳，执 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月13日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [通胀压力短期缓解，关税压力仍存不确 Table_NewTitle] 定性 ——海外观察：2025年2月美国CPI 投资要点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [table_main] ➢ 事件：2025年2月美国CPI同比上涨2.8%，预期2.9%，前值3.0%；环比上升0.2%，预期 0.3%，前值0.5%。2月美国核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，预期3.2%，前值3.1%；环比上涨0.2%， 预期0.3%，前值0.4%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国2月通胀低于预期，分项结构上反映出一些推升通胀的短期影响正在减退， 2月原油价格的下跌也影响能源涨幅回落，核心商品涨幅回落，但还未能反映加征 ...