Key Recommendations - The petrochemical cycle has reached its bottom, making it an opportune time for left-side positioning in the oil and petrochemical industry [7][9] - Tax rebate adjustments have stimulated shipments, stabilizing the prices of complete wind power units in the new energy power sector [11][12] - Initial policy effects have led to a slight improvement in industrial enterprise profits for October 2024 [20][21] Petrochemical Industry Insights - Historical analysis indicates that the petrochemical cycle typically lasts about 7 years, with extreme events causing short-term downturns without altering the cycle's logic [7] - China's new ethylene capacity is expected to hold a global cost advantage, with average cash costs projected at approximately $688 per ton by 2027 under a Brent oil price scenario of $65 per barrel [8] - The current petrochemical cycle is believed to have bottomed out, with expectations for a recovery phase beginning in the second half of next year as global demand improves [9] New Energy Sector Analysis - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a decline of 4.68% during the week of November 18-22, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points [12] - The wind power sector experienced a 2.18% decline but outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.42 percentage points [12] - The adjustment of tax rebates is expected to enhance shipment rates, with upstream silicon wafer production showing signs of improvement [13] Industrial Profit Data - In October 2024, industrial enterprise profits showed a cumulative year-on-year decline but improved from -27.1% to -10.0%, aided by a low base and improved profit margins [20][21] - The profit margin for October rose to 5.4%, with industrial added value increasing by 5.3% year-on-year [21][22] - The equipment manufacturing sector continues to show a high profit share, indicating a stable performance in the midstream segment [22]

Group 1: Profit Performance - In October 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 3.5%[1] - The monthly profit year-on-year improved from -27.1% to -10.0%, driven by a low base and improved profit margins[2] - The profit margin for October rose to 5.4%, slightly down from 6.3% to 6.2% year-on-year, indicating reduced drag on profitability[3] Group 2: Inventory and Demand - By the end of October, nominal inventory increased by 3.9% year-on-year, down from 4.6% in the previous period, reflecting faster inventory consumption[4] - Actual inventory growth also decreased to 6.8% year-on-year from 7.4%, suggesting improved expectations and accelerated inventory turnover[4] - The industrial added value for October showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, indicating stable production levels[3] Group 3: Sector Analysis - The profit share of midstream equipment manufacturing rose to 28.0%, reflecting policy support for equipment upgrades and advantages in the industrial chain[3] - Upstream raw material extraction profits decreased to 16.9%, while midstream raw material manufacturing remained stable at 17.9%[3] - Downstream profit share continued to decline, currently at 25.8%, indicating ongoing challenges in that sector[3] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and demand recovery not meeting forecasts[5] - The upcoming political bureau meeting and economic work conference in December may provide additional policy insights and market dynamics[2]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Yongzhen Co., Ltd. (603381) is positioned as a leader in the photovoltaic frame market, with a focus on technology and scale to enhance competitive advantages, expecting long-term growth [8][9][10] - Nvidia's Blackwell chip shows strong demand, with a 94% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, indicating robust support for future revenue growth [14][15] Group 2: Financial Performance - Yongzhen Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 5.391 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, and a net profit of 371 million yuan, up 50.74% [8] - In the first three quarters of 2024, Yongzhen Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 5.735 billion yuan, a 47.07% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 29.35% to 178 million yuan [8] Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - The global photovoltaic aluminum frame market is expected to reach a demand of 3.19 million tons by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.88% from 2023 to 2026 [9] - Yongzhen Co., Ltd. is expanding its production capacity to 690,000 tons and is investing in recycled aluminum to reduce costs and enhance profitability [9][10] - The IC China 2024 event highlighted the recovery of the semiconductor market, with expectations of a 15% to 20% growth in the global semiconductor industry this year [16] Group 4: Investment Suggestions - Yongzhen Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve revenues of 8.541 billion, 12.580 billion, and 16.814 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 197 million, 379 million, and 637 million yuan [10] - The report suggests focusing on AIOT, AI-driven sectors, and the semiconductor supply chain for potential investment opportunities [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the petrochemical sector, indicating a neutral outlook for investment opportunities in the industry [3]. Core Insights - The petrochemical cycle is believed to have reached its bottom, with expectations of a recovery phase beginning in the second half of the following year as global demand improves [5]. - The report highlights that the average cash cost of newly built or upgraded ethylene capacity in China is projected to be around $688 per ton by 2027, positioning it favorably on the cost curve compared to global peers [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, suggesting that a rate cut typically signals the bottom of a petrochemical cycle [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Petrochemical Cycle - The petrochemical cycle typically spans about seven years, with extreme events causing short-term downturns without altering the overall cycle logic [23]. - Major negative events during downturns can accelerate the cycle, leading to the clearing of outdated capacities and hastening the onset of recovery [23]. - The report notes that the trend of de-globalization has led to a divergence in regional indices and oil price movements [23]. 2. Current Trends in the Refining Industry - Global refining capacity is projected to grow, with 2023 figures showing a capacity of 10349.8 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase [29]. - The report indicates that while new refining projects are anticipated, the overall demand for traditional petrochemical products may not keep pace with capacity growth, leading to potential oversupply [33]. - The refining industry is expected to enter a slow growth phase, with significant capacity increases anticipated primarily in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions [36]. 3. Ethylene Production Landscape - The global ethylene production capacity has been on an upward trend, with Asia and North America being the primary contributors to this growth [54]. - The report forecasts that North America's ethylene production growth will slow down, with only a modest increase expected by 2030 [59]. - China's ethylene production is expected to benefit from lower operational costs and technological advancements, positioning it as a potential leader in the global ethylene market [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the power equipment and renewable energy sector, indicating a cautious outlook on investment opportunities in this industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a steady growth in electric vehicle demand and a high growth rate in the energy storage market, suggesting potential investment opportunities in battery and storage sectors [3]. - The adjustment of export tax rates is expected to drive shipments in the photovoltaic sector, while upstream silicon wafer production is showing signs of improvement [5][20]. - The report notes that the wind power sector is experiencing an increase in bidding and construction activities, particularly in offshore wind projects, which could catalyze growth in this segment [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - **Photovoltaic Sector**: The report indicates that the photovoltaic equipment sector has seen a decline of 4.68% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points. Key stocks in this sector include Suzhou Gohigh, Hengxing Technology, and Tuojin New Energy, which showed positive performance [4][32]. - **Wind Power Sector**: The wind power equipment sector declined by 2.18%, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index. Notable stocks include Hezhong Electric, Sany Heavy Energy, and Zhenjiang Co., which performed well during this period [4][32]. 1.1 Photovoltaic Sector - **Silicon Material**: Prices remain stable, but inventory pressures are evident. Despite production cuts, the supply-demand relationship has not fundamentally improved, leading to a potential softening of silicon prices [20][21]. - **Silicon Wafer**: Production is improving due to demand mismatches and overseas demand. However, battery manufacturers are still facing losses, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [20][21]. - **Battery Cells**: The operating rate for battery production in November was 58.92%, with a 6.93% increase in total output. Export tax rate adjustments are prompting manufacturers to accelerate deliveries [20][21]. - **Modules**: Prices are stable, but manufacturers are under pressure due to a lack of significant installation peaks this year. The report anticipates a decline in module production as demand weakens [21][22]. 1.2 Wind Power Sector - **Onshore Wind**: Bidding for onshore wind power units reached approximately 2433.6 MW, with a steady increase in bidding and opening sizes supporting annual installation growth. Average bidding prices for complete units are stabilizing [23][24]. - **Offshore Wind**: The report notes significant progress in offshore wind project construction, particularly in coastal provinces, which is expected to catalyze overall growth in the wind power sector [24][25]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report suggests that the overall demand for offshore wind is strong, with opportunities for domestic products in international markets, enhancing the performance of component manufacturers [25][26]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Trends**: The report includes various price trends for key materials in the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, indicating stability in prices for silicon materials, wafers, and battery cells, while also tracking fluctuations in component prices [45][46].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月26日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241126 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 于卓楠 S0630524100001 yzn@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.电车需求稳步增长，储能市场增速较高——电池及储能行业周报（20241118-20241124） ➢ 2.基本面筑底，静待政策催化——食品饮料行业周报（2024/11/18-2024/11/24） ➢ 3.宽基ETF费率下调，2025险企"开门红"启动——非银金融行业周报（20241118- 20241124） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.李强同第二届中国国际供应链促进博览会参展参会企业代表座谈 ➢ 2.中国人民银行等九部门联合召开科技创新和技术改造贷款工作推进会议 ➢ 3.央行开展9000亿元中期借贷便利操作 ➢ 4.特朗普计划向美国国会寻求资金以补充战略石油储备 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | |-- ...

行 业 研 究 汽 车 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月25日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -37% -25% -14% -3% 9% 20% 31% 23-11 24-02 24-05 24-08 申万行业指数:汽车(0728) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.智能化与高端化并进，构建全球竞 争力——汽车零部件行业研究框架 专题报告 政策有望推出 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 乘用车零售维持高增速，以旧换新接续 ] ——汽车行业周报（2024/11/18-2024/11/24） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 本周汽车板块行情表现：本周沪深300环比下跌2.60%；汽车板块整体下跌2.17%，在31个 行业中排第20。细分行业中，（1）整车：综合乘用车、商用载货车、商用载客车子板块分 别变动-2.76%、-3.02%、-3.10%。（2）汽车零部件：车身附件及饰件、底盘 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the photovoltaic frame sector, with continuous expansion in operational scale and a strong competitive advantage due to its technological capabilities [3][4]. - The global demand for photovoltaic aluminum frames is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing installation of solar power systems [4][63]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and is focusing on cost reduction through upstream integration into recycled aluminum [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in August 2016, focuses on the research, production, and sales of green energy structural materials, primarily photovoltaic frames, BIPV products, and photovoltaic support structures [22][24]. - It has become one of the leading manufacturers of aluminum photovoltaic structural components in China, with a successful IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in June 2024 [22][24]. 2. Market Demand and Growth - The global photovoltaic installation capacity continues to grow, with a 69.57% increase in 2023, leading to a sustained demand for aluminum frames [63]. - The report forecasts that the global demand for photovoltaic aluminum frames will reach 319 million tons by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.88% from 2023 to 2026 [4][63]. 3. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, and a net profit of 371 million yuan, up 50.74% [28]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.735 billion yuan, a 47.07% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 29.35% [28]. 4. Production Capacity and Cost Management - The company is expanding its production capacity to 690,000 tons, with five major production bases in China and Vietnam, which will enhance its scale advantages [4][5]. - The integration into recycled aluminum production is expected to significantly reduce material costs and improve profit margins [4][5]. 5. Product Diversification - The company is diversifying its product offerings by entering the BIPV and photovoltaic support structure markets, which will enhance its resilience against market fluctuations [5][30]. - In 2023, the revenue contributions from BIPV and support structures were 557,710 yuan and 1.45 billion yuan, respectively, indicating the initial formation of a product matrix [5][30]. 6. Future Projections - The report projects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 8.541 billion yuan, 12.580 billion yuan, and 16.814 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 196.64 million yuan, 378.72 million yuan, and 637.11 million yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5][33]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial index experienced a decline of 3.6% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1 percentage point, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing synchronized declines of -2.89% and -4.89% respectively [5][16]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 1.9087 trillion yuan, a decrease of 21.2% week-on-week, indicating a slowdown in market activity [5][23]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized five key areas for capital market reform, including enhancing investment value and promoting cross-border cooperation [6][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The non-bank financial index fell by 3.6%, with the brokerage index down by 2.9% and the insurance index down by 4.9% [5][16]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds decreased to 1.9087 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant drop in market activity [5][23]. 2. Market Data Tracking - The margin trading balance was 1.83 trillion yuan, slightly down by 0.2% from the previous week, indicating a stable but cautious market environment [5][23]. - The stock pledge market value was 2.81 trillion yuan, which also saw a decrease of 1.9% week-on-week [5][23]. 3. Industry News - Major insurance companies have initiated their 2025 "New Year" strategies, focusing on flexible product offerings and enhancing customer retention through innovative payment methods [7][28]. - The restructuring of brokerages is accelerating, with significant mergers and acquisitions expected to create competitive advantages for stronger firms [6][8]. 4. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, high asset returns, and improving return on equity (ROE) as key investment themes [8]. - In the insurance sector, attention is drawn to large comprehensive insurance companies that possess competitive advantages under the new regulatory framework [8].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 电子化学品国产化加速，聚焦核心竞争力 | | | | | 证券分析师：吴骏燕 证券分析师：张晶磊 | | 2024 年 执 ...