东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 5 月 26 日星期一 分析师推荐 【东兴地产】房地产行业 2024 年及 2025Q1 财报综述：行业大幅亏损，缩表 之下流动性承压（20250522） 2024 年报综述： 利润表：从行业整体来看，营收下滑，毛利承压，大幅减值，整体亏损。但 后期随着老项目的充分减值与销售占比的逐渐降低、在房价下行趋势减缓和 止跌回稳的政策导向之下，后续减值压力有望降低。 资产负债表：行业持续缩表，流动性压力依然较大。我们认为，市场走弱之 下，房企的持续亏损正在显著侵蚀净资产规模；销售下行之下，行业流动性 依然面临较大挑战。 现金流量表：经营性现金流大幅下滑，投资支出大幅缩减。行业的经营活动 现金流量净额大幅下滑，房企自身造血能力面临严峻挑战；投资活动现金流 量净额大幅缩减，反映房企大幅降低了投资强度。 2025 年一季报综述： 利润表：营收下行，大幅亏损，减值收窄。资产负债表：行业继续缩表，短 债偿付能力继续下滑。行业净负债率持续提升，短债偿付能力继续下滑。 投资建议：我们认为，当前行业大幅亏损，缩表之下流动性依然承压。但随 着老项目的充分减值与销售占比的逐渐降低、在房价下行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [4] Core Views - The company focuses on high-quality development with stable capital expenditures and solid cost advantages, leading to a robust financial performance in 2024 and 2025 [2][11] - CNOOC's revenue for 2024 is projected at 420.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 137.9 billion RMB, up 11.38% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of approximately 106.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 36.56 billion RMB, down 7.9% year-on-year [1][3] - The average realized oil price in Q1 2025 was 72.65 USD per barrel, a decline of 7.7% year-on-year, while natural gas prices increased by 1.2% to 7.78 USD per thousand cubic feet [3][10] - CNOOC's total oil and gas production for 2024 was 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [2][10] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company achieved a barrel of oil cost of 28.52 USD in 2024, a slight decrease from 28.83 USD in 2023, indicating improved cost management [10] - For 2025, CNOOC plans to maintain high capital expenditures between 125 billion to 135 billion RMB, focusing on exploration and production [11] Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 139.76 billion RMB, with an expected EPS of 2.94 RMB [11][13] - The company is projected to maintain a stable net profit growth trajectory through 2027, with estimates of 143.45 billion RMB and 144.67 billion RMB for 2026 and 2027, respectively [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [4] Core Views - The financial indicators for 2024 show steady improvement, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 11.38% year-on-year, reaching 137.936 billion yuan [2][11] - The company focuses on its core oil and gas business, continuously increasing reserves and production, leading to a rise in oil and gas output and net profit margin despite fluctuations in international oil prices [2][11] - The average realized oil price for the first quarter of 2025 was 72.65 USD/barrel, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, while gas prices increased by 1.2% [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the operating revenue is projected to be 420.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, with a net profit of 137.936 billion yuan [2][13] - The company achieved an oil and gas production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a growth of 7.2% year-on-year, with a sales net profit margin of 32.81%, up by 3.02% [2][11] - The debt-to-asset ratio improved to 29.05%, a decrease of 4.53% year-on-year, indicating better financial stability [2][11] Cost Management - The average oil cost per barrel for 2024 was 28.52 USD, down from 28.83 USD in 2023, reflecting a solid cost advantage [10] - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures in 2025, with a budget of 125 to 135 billion yuan, focusing on exploration and development [11][13] Production Goals - The production target for 2025 is set between 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [11][13] - The company aims to pursue high-quality development and effective production growth [11]

电子行业：2024 年电子板块迎来复苏， 2025 一季度营收利润同环比均实现快速 2025 年 5 月 23 日 看好/维持 电子 行业报告 年初至 2025 年 5 月 9 日，电子行业指数（中信）上涨 2.77%。截至 2025 年 5 月 9 日收盘，电子行业指数（中信）跑赢 沪深 300 指数与创业板指数，我们分析认为年初受 DeepSeek 引领的开源模型创新浪潮驱动国内 AI 大模型产业价值重估， 叠加终端侧 AI 应用的持续迭代升级，算力产业链一季度表现相对强劲。后续受特朗普美国关税政策影响，对电子板块形成较 大干扰。2025 年初至 2025 年 5 月 9 日，电子行业指数（中信）上涨 2.77%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.67%，创业板指下跌 2.36%。2025 年初至 2025 年 5 月 9 日，电子板块指数涨幅在全行业指数（中信）中居中。 2024 年电子板块迎来复苏，2025 一季度营收利润同环比均实现快速增长。2024 年电子行业实现营业收入 34801.15 亿元， 同比增长17.4%，实现归母净利润1379.13亿元，同比增长35.85%。25Q1电子行业实现营收864 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is experiencing marginal recovery, with a high dividend payout ratio. In 2024, the home goods sector is projected to generate revenue of CNY 246.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 13.6% to CNY 15.86 billion [4][14]. - The report highlights that domestic demand for home goods is under pressure, but government subsidies are expected to fill the demand gap. The sales of building materials and home goods are projected to decline by 3.9% year-on-year in 2024, but there are signs of improvement in early 2025 [5][26]. - The external sales performance is strong, with furniture exports showing a recovery since November 2023, driven by overseas retailers replenishing inventory. However, the report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in tariff policies, particularly from the U.S. [6][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Home Furnishing Sector 2024 Annual Report & Q1 2025 - The home goods sector is under operational pressure, with only Q1 showing growth due to a low base effect from previous public health events. The profit margin has been declining, reflecting increased competition [4][14]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue increased by 3.9% year-on-year, and net profit rose by 10.6%, indicating a recovery trend [4][14]. 2. Domestic Sales - The report notes that the domestic home goods market is facing challenges, with a projected decline in sales. However, the introduction of government subsidies is expected to stimulate demand, particularly in key cities [5][34]. - The dividend payout ratio for leading companies in the sector has increased, with many companies offering dividend yields exceeding 3% [5][35]. 3. External Sales - The report indicates that external sales have been performing well, with all key export companies reporting revenue growth in Q1 2025. The recovery in exports is attributed to overseas retailers restocking [6][40]. - The report warns of uncertainties related to U.S. tariff policies, which could impact future export orders [6][40]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with high dividend yields and strong market positions, such as Gujia Home, Sophia, and Zhibang Home, as they are expected to benefit from government subsidies and have resilient performance [5][39].

房地产行业 2024 年及 2025Q1 财报综述： 行业大幅亏损，缩表之下流动性承压 2025 年 5 月 22 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 分析师 陈刚 电话：021-25102897 邮箱：chen_gang@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480521080001 投资摘要： 2024 年报综述： 利润表：从行业整体来看，营收下滑，毛利承压，大幅减值，整体亏损。2024 年地产板块(801180.SL)102 家上市房企合计 实现营收 19837 亿元，同比增速为-21.0%；实现归母净利润-1590 亿元，同比增速为-3230%。我们认为，往年的高价地块 陆续进入结算阶段，叠加流动性压力和房价下行之时房企选择以价换量，使得整体盈利水平面临压力。随着老项目的充分减 值与销售占比的逐渐降低、在房价下行趋势减缓和止跌回稳的政策导向之下，后续减值压力有望降低。2024 年地产板块的整 体净利率为-8.31%，核心净利率为 1.49%，归母净利率为-8.01%；随着老项目的陆续结算与新项目的补充，后续的核心净利 率有望见底回升。 资产负债表：行业持续缩表，流动性压力依然较大。2024 年地产板 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [4][3]. Core Views - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1]. - The focus for 2025 will shift towards increasing market share, with a target business volume of 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1]. - The company experienced a decline in single-ticket revenue, dropping from 1.36 CNY in Q1 2024 to 1.25 CNY in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased subsidies and a decrease in single-ticket weight [2]. - Operating expenses significantly decreased to 283 million CNY in Q1 2025 from 735 million CNY in Q1 2024, largely due to government subsidies and tax refunds [2]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a strategy shift back to prioritizing market share, which may lead to slower profit growth in the short term [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 9.52 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 38.42 billion CNY in 2023 to 49.90 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.68% [8]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 19.24% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 15.94% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [4][3] Core Views - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1] - The company aims to focus on increasing market share in 2025, despite facing pressure on revenue due to price wars [1][3] - The single ticket revenue decreased by 0.11 CNY, primarily due to increased subsidies and a decline in average weight per ticket [2] - The company’s core costs per ticket showed a notable decrease, with transportation costs dropping from 0.47 CNY to 0.41 CNY [2] - Operating expenses significantly decreased due to government subsidies and tax refunds, totaling 283 million CNY in Q1 2025 compared to 735 million CNY in Q1 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q1 2025, ZTO Express achieved a business volume growth of 19.1%, although this was slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6% [1] - The company maintains its guidance for a total business volume of 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1] Revenue and Costs - The single ticket revenue fell to 1.25 CNY in Q1 2025 from 1.36 CNY in Q1 2024, influenced by increased subsidies and a decrease in ticket weight [2] - The core cost per ticket remained stable at 0.94 CNY, with a reduction in transportation and sorting costs [2] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its strategy back to prioritizing market share over profitability in response to intensified price competition [3] - The report anticipates that while market share may recover, profit growth will slow down due to ongoing price wars [3] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 are 95.2 billion CNY, 112.0 billion CNY, and 126.4 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - In April 2025, pig prices experienced fluctuations, with the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 39.16 CNY/kg, 15.20 CNY/kg, and 26.07 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of 5.15%, -1.00%, and -1.19% [3][18]. - The supply side indicates a slight increase in the number of breeding sows, leading to sufficient pig supply in April, while low feed costs have encouraged farmers to increase the weight of pigs [21]. - Demand has been supported by increased secondary fattening and pre-holiday stocking activities, contributing to price stability [21]. - The slaughtering rate for pigs rose by 1.42 percentage points to 27.53% in April, indicating smooth procurement for slaughtering enterprises [21]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows slightly increased, resulting in a sufficient supply of pigs for slaughter in April [21]. - The average price of live pigs remained stable around 15 CNY/kg during the May Day holiday, with a national average of 14.98 CNY/kg by May 15 [3][18]. Price Trends - The average sales prices for major companies in April were as follows: Muyuan Foods at 14.66 CNY/kg, Wens Foodstuffs at 14.92 CNY/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 14.44 CNY/kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 14.70 CNY/kg, with slight month-on-month changes [34][39]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased, with Muyuan Foods at 130.71 kg, Wens Foodstuffs at 117.03 kg, Zhengbang Technology at 132.78 kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 97.10 kg [39][45]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that high-quality production capacity will maintain profitability in 2025, with leading companies expected to experience valuation recovery [24][30]. - It is recommended to focus on leading companies with cost advantages and high performance, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Tian Kang Biological, and Shennong Group [30]. Cost Analysis - The latest breeding costs for major companies in April 2025 are as follows: Muyuan Foods at 12.40 CNY/kg, Wens Foodstuffs at 12.60 CNY/kg, and Shennong Group at 12.30 CNY/kg, indicating a competitive cost structure among leading firms [49][50].

Investment Summary - The mechanical sector underperformed in 2024 but has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index rising by 10.44% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 10.43 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 12.52 percentage points [4][19] - In Q1 2025, the mechanical industry reported a non-recurring net profit of 27.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.03%, marking the highest absolute value and growth rate since Q1 2021 [4][27] General Machinery Focus - The report suggests focusing on engineering machinery and compressors, as the manufacturing PMI fell by 2.78% in April 2025, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [5][44] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2025, and with the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies, the demand for engineering machinery is expected to increase [5][48] - Beneficiary companies include SANY Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), XCMG (000425), LiuGong (000528), and Shantui (000680) for engineering machinery, and Iceberg Cold Chain (000530), Ice Wheel Environment (000811), Hanbell Precise Machinery (002158), and others for compressors [5][58] New Quality Productivity - Policies are increasingly focusing on enhancing total factor productivity represented by new quality productivity, with attention on low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][10] - The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from government funding support, with projections indicating that by 2035, the delivery of drones could exceed 61 million units, generating a manufacturing output of approximately 490 billion yuan [7] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant oil and gas resources located in deep-sea areas, and domestic technology companies are expected to benefit from the push for domestic substitution [8][9] - Humanoid robots are anticipated to address customization challenges, with a focus on key components such as sensors, motors, screws, and reducers, which are critical for mass production and cost reduction [10][11] Industrial Mother Machines - Industrial mother machines are essential for the mass production of core components, and their advancement is expected to enhance profitability in the humanoid robot sector [11][11] Compressor Market Insights - The compressor market is poised for growth due to high demand from the ice and snow economy, with policies supporting the development of ice and snow sports facilities [58][59] - The report estimates that the annual equipment investment increment from new ice and snow venues could reach approximately 26.6 billion yuan over the next five years [59] - The implementation of new energy efficiency standards in 2025 is expected to drive demand for the replacement of commercial refrigeration equipment, with an estimated 35 million units needing updates [63][66]