2025 年 04 月 13 日 生物医药Ⅱ 新药周观点：映恩生物 IPO 在即，多个 ADC 进展值得关注 本周新药行情回顾： 2025 年 4 月 7 日-2025 年 4 月 13 日，新药板块涨幅前 5 企业：北海 康成（21.53%）、海思科（11.07%）、乐普生物（6.28%）、艾迪药 业（6.24%）、智翔金泰（6.18%），跌幅前 5 企业：再鼎医药（-22.92%）、 科笛（-22.51%）、基石药业（-22.40%）、宜明昂科（-20.79%）、 康宁杰瑞（-19.47%）。 本周新药行业重点分析： 映恩生物即将于 2025 年 4 月 15 日在香港联交所主板挂牌上市，作 为国内抗体偶联药物（ADC）领域明星企业之一，其上市引发市场广 泛关注。目前公司创新药管线共有约 7 款 ADC 药物进入临床开发阶 段，包括 HER2 ADC DB-1303/BNT323、B7H3 ADC DB-1311/BNT324、 TROP2 ADC DB-1305 /BNT325、HER3 ADC DB-1310、B7H4 ADC DB- 1312/BG-C9074、B7H3/PD-L1 双抗 ADC D ...

2025 年 04 月 13 日 坑底明确！爬坑关键词是：半导体 本周上证指数跌 3.11%，沪深 300 跌 2.87%，恒生指数跌 8.47%，全 A 日均交 易额 16124 亿，环比上周有所上升。在剧烈波动的过程中，本周沪深 300ETF 获得近 1000 亿元的净流入，充分体现以汇金为代表的救市力量的资金支持，国 家平准基金发挥"定海神针"的作用。在上周周报《这是一个"黄金坑"！》中我 们明确指出，随着本周美对等关税超预期落地，以我国为代表的强硬贸易反制 进程掀起，类似于去年九月下旬，全球经济大衰退的情绪存在过度演绎的较大 可能，我们认为对于大盘指数有望面临"年内黄金坑"。在本周周一市场大跌后， 风险偏好开始逐步修复，并且对边际利空钝化，"坑底"已经基本明确，符合我 们对于市场"黄金坑"的判断，后续是跟踪评估爬出坑口的过程：一个基本原则 是要相信中美新一轮政策博弈可以看到国内反制在前，但也要相信对冲在后， 只要不是全球大衰退，国内对冲政策对于大盘指数的积极定价就值得期待。 对于后续爬坑的短期评估：我们认为本轮爬坑核心特征依然是风险偏好的修复， 关键词是科技型内需，以半导体和科创 50 指数为核心的科 ...

春节后因为 Deepseek R1 的出现使得市场风险偏好明显提升,最终使 得常见的二次探底行情都没有出现就开始掉头向上；本轮则有望因为 近期国内政策面的加持而使得市场震荡向上，即使未来出现了二次探 底形态，都应该以积极的心态来寻找机会。 考虑到近几天的反弹已有一定幅度，而且大部分板块都有所表现，因 此后续的结构选择或将成为未来的关键。从行业短期性价比角度分 析，模型建议优先关注科技成长方向的近期超跌弹性品种，具体而言 可以优先关注电子、计算机、机械设备等板块。 2025 年 04 月 13 日 企稳后，关注科技成长方向超跌弹性品种 本期要点：企稳后，关注科技成长方向超跌弹性品种 上期提到，美股触及 800 日均线前后，A 股有望率先企稳并迎来一波 值得参与的机会。事后来看，目前 A 股或已有企稳迹象，符合预期。 具体而言，上周大盘一度跌到 3040 附近，随后开始了较大幅度的反 弹。这一位置恰好位于去年 926 行情的起点附近，也对应着多条大级 别均线走平的位置；从这一视角看，至少到目前为止，A 股或已基本 确认了本轮调整的底部。 考虑到清明节后 A 股一度出现的大跌本有向下破位的迹象，但若从 温度计等角度 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 100.80 CNY for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.485 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.74%, and a net profit of 207 million CNY, up 3.10% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin remained stable at 25.75%, while the net margin slightly decreased to 13.93% [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacity, with a new factory in Anhui set to be completed in April 2025, which will add 40,000 tons of capacity in its first year [3]. - The company is advancing its new robotics business, focusing on innovative materials for robotic components, which is expected to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 411 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.08%, and a net profit of 68 million CNY, up 7.57% [1]. - The company’s operating expenses increased, with a total expense ratio of 10.17%, driven by higher sales and management costs due to stock incentive plans and increased R&D investments [2]. Production Capacity and Growth - The company’s production capacity reached 180,000 tons in 2024, placing it among the top tier in the domestic industry [3]. - The new factory will focus on high-end manufacturing areas, which is expected to optimize the product structure and improve overall gross margins [3]. Robotics Business Development - The establishment of the robotics materials research institute marks a strategic move for the company, focusing on key materials for harmonic and planetary gear reducers [4]. - The company aims to become a leader in innovative materials for robotic applications, which could significantly lower production costs for humanoid robots [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.826 billion CNY, 2.158 billion CNY, and 2.491 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 227 million CNY, 295 million CNY, and 358 million CNY [11]. - The company is expected to maintain solid performance in its core business while the robotics segment opens new growth avenues [11].

主营业务稳健增长，投资收益显著，25Q1 业绩表现靓丽 2025 年 04 月 11 日 东方精工(002611.SZ) 25Q1 业绩表现靓丽， 智能装备主业利润率提升 事件：东方精工发布 2025 年第一季度业绩预告。2025Q1 公司 预计实现归母净利润 2.68-2.90 亿元，同比增长 500%-550%；扣 非归母净利润 1.12-1.45 亿元，同比增长 70%-120%。 25Q1 公司利润增速表现靓丽，预计实现归母净利润中值为 2.79 亿 元，同比增长 525%。主要原因系：1)主营业务营收稳健增长，国内瓦 楞纸包装装备业务单元表现突出。公司在智能包装设备领域属于全球 龙头，2024 年公司智能包装装备板块全年营收 40.21 亿元，毛利率 同比提升 3.74pct，突破历史峰值。得益于终端市场对瓦楞纸包装的 需求持续增长、子公司 Fosber 集团的市场地位及订单效率提升，公 司智能瓦楞纸包装装备业务表现亮眼，营收利润同比大幅增长，整体 市占率继续高居国内第一，全球前二。2）降本增效成果显著。受益 于"高端技术突破"与"国产制造降本"并举，子公司 Fosber 亚洲 的市场竞争力持续巩固 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ningbo Bank is "Buy-A" with a target price of 28.09 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 23.36 CNY [5]. Core Views - Ningbo Bank's 2024 revenue showed a steady growth of 8.19% year-on-year, with pre-provision profit increasing by 13.92% and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 6.23% [1][11]. - The bank's net interest margin demonstrated resilience, with a slight decrease of only 2 basis points compared to 2023, outperforming peers [8][10]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan generation rate gradually declining, benefiting from controlled consumer credit expansion [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Ningbo Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 3.78% year-on-year, driven by scale expansion, widening net interest margin, and cost savings, despite a slowdown in non-interest income growth and increased taxes [1]. - The average daily balance of interest-earning assets grew by 16.01% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 5.64 percentage points compared to Q3 2024 [1][8]. - The bank's non-interest income decreased by 12.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decline in other non-interest income [8]. Credit and Asset Quality - New loans in Q4 2024 totaled 214 billion CNY, a decrease of 153 billion CNY year-on-year, with both corporate and retail credit growth lagging behind 2023 levels [2][10]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with improvements in corporate loan asset quality [9][32]. - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 389.35%, indicating strong risk resistance capabilities [9][32]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 6.50% and a net profit growth of 5.48% in 2025, with a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet while controlling risk [11][12]. - The dividend payout ratio has significantly increased to 22.77%, reflecting a stronger commitment to shareholder returns [10][11].

2025 年 04 月 10 日 锐明技术(002970.SZ) 全球商用车智能物联领导者，蓝海扬帆行稳致远 商用车智能物联领导者，掘金蓝海市场 锐明技术是全球商用车智能物联领导者，以提升安全和效率为目标， 利用 AI 视频等技术实现 Vision Zero（零事故）的愿景。公司深耕 车载视频监控领域二十余年，面向货运、校车、公交、出租等商用车 辆营运场景提供行业信息化解决方案。公司凭借全球领先的产品竞争 力全球领先，根据 2024 年 Berg Insight 的报告，公司在商用车视频 远程信息处理方案安装量排名全球第一。随着人工智能与大数据集 合，安防信息化产品快速迭代，更能够对风险精准判别、更好的监测 车辆状态和司机行为，而此类主动式视频远程信息处理系统的全球渗 透率尚且较低，蓝海市场空间广阔。 "高价值+新技术"双轮驱动行业飞轮加速增长 高价值需求：无论在交通运输还是交通出行方面，效率、成本、安全 等问题逐渐受到重视，车队运营者在成本管理、货物管理、资源配置、 安全预防管控等方面的精细化需求提升，车联网可帮助车队降本增 效、保障公共安全和驾驶安全，因此市场对商用车智能物联解决方案 的需求快速提升。 新 ...

发布大额回购计划，彰显国企担当 事件：徐工机械发布回购公司股份的公告，拟用自有资金或其 他合法资金回购 18-36 亿元，回购价格不超过人民币 13 元/股， 按 13 元/股价格计算，拟回购股份占总股本的 1.17%-2.34%。本 次回购的股份将用于实施股权激励或员工持股计划。 连续第三年实施回购计划，回购规模创历史新高：回顾公司历 史回购，公司分别于 2015 年、2023 年、2024 年发布回购计划并 完成，回购规模分别约为 2.59 亿元、8.52 亿元、3.73 亿元，分 别占彼时总股本的 1.08%、1%、0.48%。本次回购系公司连续第三 年回购，且规模较大，我们认为一方面反映了公司对当前行业格 局和产业边际改善的判断，系对业绩增长的信心，另一方面是积 极深化国改，持续完善长效激励机制。此举亦充分体现了国有大 企业对社会、对市场的担当。 深化国改，践行股东回报计划：公司通过引入市场机制、优化 股权结构和激励机制等改革手段，持续推动自身向高质量发展转 型，也在 2024 年底提出了《全球投资者未来三年（2025-2027） 回报计划》，不仅在主业方面加强研发投入、提升基本面，也在股 东回报方面 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market-A" [5] Core Viewpoints - Recent price increases in cement across various regions are expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment [1][10] - The demand for cement is recovering, supported by effective peak-shifting production strategies and low inventory levels, leading to rising prices [3][10] - The cement industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in profitability due to strategic changes among leading companies and improved market conditions [8][10] Summary by Sections Price Increases - Multiple regions have announced price hikes for cement, with increases ranging from 10 to 100 CNY per ton in various areas [1] - As of April 4, 2025, the average prices for PO42.5 bulk cement (including tax) in different regions were reported, showing increases compared to previous lows [2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - National cement production in January-February 2025 was 171 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, but the decline is less severe compared to 2024 [3] - The operating rate of cement kilns in March was reported at 40.1%, a month-on-month increase of 12.5 percentage points, indicating improved production efficiency [3] Cost Factors - The average price of thermal coal has been declining, which supports improved profitability for cement companies as cement prices rise [3] Future Outlook - The cement demand is expected to continue recovering due to increased infrastructure investment and supportive government policies [9][10] - The industry is likely to see ongoing supply-side optimization policies that will help alleviate supply-demand imbalances and support price increases [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 47.41 yuan for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.76 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 290 million yuan, down 35.4% year-over-year [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year growth of 16.2%, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, which is a decrease of 17.0% year-over-year [2][3]. - The growth in Q4 revenue was driven by domestic appliance replacement policies that boosted demand in the kitchen small appliance sector, with online sales increasing by 9% year-over-year [2]. - The company is actively expanding its product categories and enhancing its overseas market presence, which is expected to sustain revenue growth [2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 4.76 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.15 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2% [4][13]. - Net profit is expected to recover slightly to 320 million yuan in 2025, with an estimated earnings per share (EPS) of 2.06 yuan [4][13]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 6.0% in 2024 to 6.3% in 2025 [4][13]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 10.2% in 2024 to 10.9% in 2025 [4][13].