[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 13 Apr 2025 美国宏观 US Macro 特朗普的"灵活"关税和扩张野心难以复兴美国 Trump's "flexible" tariffs and expansionist ambitions are unlikely to revive the United States 周林泓 Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周一，美股市场上传出暂停关税的类似新闻，但在 10 分钟后被白宫澄清。然后在数天后，原本被澄清的"fake news"，被特朗普亲口证实。这里我们可以看出几点问题。首先，特朗普的言论和表现被市场视为对中国反制的 软弱回应，因为他也害怕其他国家统一战线。第二，特朗普在关税政策上摇摆不定，任何时候都有可能改变之前 的想法。这种政策的极度不稳定性，加剧了市场的恐慌。第三，在特朗普表示要暂停其他国 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 策略研究 证券研究报告 策略研究 2025 年 4 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 2025Q1 陆股通加仓大制造 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_Summary] A 股：2025Q1 陆股通加仓大制造。最近一周（2025/4/7-2025/4/11，下 同）交易日期间北向资金估算净流出 27 亿元，前一周（2025/3/31- 2025/4/03，下同）估算净流出 138 亿元。最近一周交易日期间灵活型 外资估算净流出 39 亿元，前一周估算净流出 87 亿元。此外，4 月 8 日，2025Q1 陆股通持股数据正式披露。2025Q1 北向资金整体流入 114 亿元，上一季度流出 1384 亿元。结构上，2025Q1 北向资金整体 流入汽车、电子、机械设备等靠前，整体流出公用事业、通信、家用 电器等靠前。 港股：南下资金大幅净流入。根据港交所中央结算系统持股明细数 据，最近一周（2025/4/2-2025/4/8）各类资金合计流入港股市场 420 亿 港元，其中稳定型外资流出 349 亿港元，灵活型外资流出 50 亿港元， 港股通流入 7 ...

研究报告 Research Report 13 Apr 2025 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 港股医药行业周报（250407-0411），关注美国关税政策演变及内需 Weekly Report on the Hong Kong Stock Market Pharmaceutical Industry: Focus on the Evolution of US Tariff Policies and Domestic Demand [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 京东健康 | Outperform 固生堂 | | Outperform | | 药明生物 | Outperform 诺辉健康-B | | Outperform | | 阿里健康 | Outperform 康宁杰瑞 | | Outperform | | 康方生物 | Outperform 复宏汉霖 | | Outperform | | 中国生物制药 | Outperform 和誉 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 13 Apr 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 中美贸易和金融战为表，科技争夺为里 Beneath the US-China Trade and Financial War Lies the Battle for Technological Supremacy 周林泓 Amber Zhou 陈昊飞 Haofei Chen, PhD 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com haofei.chen@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为系统性风险有限，股市提前计提的美国衰退预期也会被修正，而真正具有深远影响的是世界贸易格 局重塑。本周可见，中美两国均在积极构建贸易联盟，中国寻求与"一带一路"沿线国家和欧盟加强合作，美国 则倾向于通过施压获取他国妥协。 我 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial and Commercial Holding [2][7] Core Insights - Jonjee achieved a revenue of RMB 5.52 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.4% to RMB 890 million [4][9] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 1.57 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 32.6%, although the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 89.3% to RMB 320 million [4][9] - The company is expected to continue expanding its channels and sales regions while enhancing management efficiency, with projected revenues of RMB 5.99 billion, RMB 6.56 billion, and RMB 7.23 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][13] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Net Profit Forecast: - 2024 Revenue: RMB 5,519 million - 2025 Revenue Estimate: RMB 5,988 million (up 8.5% YoY) - 2026 Revenue Estimate: RMB 6,557 million (up 9.5% YoY) - 2027 Revenue Estimate: RMB 7,232 million (up 10.3% YoY) - 2024 Net Profit: RMB 893 million - 2025 Net Profit Estimate: RMB 972 million (up 16.2% YoY) - 2026 Net Profit Estimate: RMB 1,084 million (up 17.6% YoY) - 2027 Net Profit Estimate: RMB 1,213 million (up 18.0% YoY) [2][8][12] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin increased to 39.8% in 2024, up 7.1 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders decreased to 16.2% [6][12] - In Q4 2024, the gross margin rose to 45.8%, with a net profit margin of 20.2% [6][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on channel transformation and expanding its online direct sales, which saw a growth of 11.8% in 2024, while traditional distribution channels experienced a decline of 8.4% [5][11] - By the end of the reporting period, Jonjee achieved a county-level market penetration of 75.4% and a prefecture-level penetration of 95.8% [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tsingtao Brewery is maintained at OUTPERFORM with a target price of Rmb88.00, up from the current price of Rmb79.63 [2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that Tsingtao Brewery is poised for a recovery in sales volume, supported by internal organizational rejuvenation and strategic restructuring with Qingdao Beverage Group, which aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem covering both alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages [3][12]. - Despite a decline in sales volume in 2024, the company demonstrated resilience in profitability through product structural upgrades and cost management, with a net profit margin increase to 13.5% [4][13]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed signs of improvement in both volume and price, with expectations for low to mid single-digit growth in sales volume for 2025, driven by favorable market conditions and cost optimization [5][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 was Rmb32.14 billion, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was Rmb4.34 billion, reflecting a 1.8% increase [4][13]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be Rmb3.52 in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 25 [2][11]. - The company expects to maintain a stable expense ratio in 2025, contributing to profit improvement [5][15]. Market Position and Strategy - Tsingtao Brewery is focusing on marketing innovations such as O2O, B2B, and community group buying to enhance consumer engagement and adapt to changing purchasing behaviors [3][12]. - The company aims to strengthen its market share through strategic restructuring and integration of resources, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in both the beer and health beverage markets [3][12]. Valuation and Investment Outlook - The report suggests that Tsingtao Brewery's current valuation is at a historical low, making it an attractive investment opportunity, especially given its defensive attributes in the domestic consumption sector [15]. - The anticipated recovery in catering consumption scenarios could lead to a dual increase in sales volume and product structure, driving profit elasticity [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer sector, suggesting continued interest in companies such as Huada Jiutian, Dameng Data, Kingsoft Office, Haiguang Information, and others [2]. Core Insights - The computer sector has seen active share buybacks and increases in holdings since April 1, 2025, with a total of 23 buyback announcements by April 10, 2025, reflecting companies' confidence in market stability [2]. - Notable buyback activities include Newland's announcement of a buyback plan amounting to 122 million CNY, representing 0.43% of its market value, and Hikvision's significant buyback of 1.235 billion CNY, which exceeds the combined total of the second to fifth largest buybacks in the industry [2][3]. - The report highlights that the actions of leading companies in the sector have effectively stabilized the market, particularly through coordinated buyback and increase strategies, as seen with Hikvision and other companies [2][5]. Summary by Sections Buyback Activities - The computer sector has conducted 101 buyback announcements in Q1 2025, with 23 occurring from April 1 to April 10, indicating a proactive approach to market stabilization [2]. - Key companies involved in buybacks include: - Newland: 1.22 million CNY buyback on April 8, 2025 [3]. - Hikvision: 12.35 billion CNY buyback on April 1, 2025, showcasing a dominant position in the market [3]. Increase in Holdings - The report notes that the increase in holdings by major shareholders has contributed to reduced stock price volatility, particularly among companies in the Electric Science and Technology sector [2][5]. - For instance, from December 20, 2024, to April 9, 2025, Electric Science and Technology Group increased its holdings by approximately 556,000 shares, amounting to 1.3 million CNY [2][5]. Market Stability - The report emphasizes that the coordinated buyback and increase strategies have led to a significant decrease in stock price volatility, demonstrating effective market management strategies by leading companies [2][5].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 11 Apr 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 中国"原产地"认证致美 IDM 芯片面关税风险，恐炒风又起 China's 'Country of Origin' Certification Puts U.S. IDM Chips at Risk of Tariffs, Fears of Speculative Buying Resurface 姚书桥 Barney Yao barney.sq.yao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 中国半导体行业协会 4 月 11 日发布《关于半导体产品"原产地"认定规则的紧急通知》。通知表示，根据海关总署的 相关规定，"集成电路"原产地按照四位税则号改变原则认定，即流片地认定为原产地。通知建议，"集成电路"无论 已封装或未封装，进口报关时的原产地以"晶圆流片工厂"所在地为准进行申 ...

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 11 Apr 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng [Table_summary] 事件： AI Agent 协议发布：谷歌 A2A 聚焦协同，阿里云 MCP 强化工具调用 barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com 2025 年 4 月 9 日，Google 和阿里云分别发布了面向 AI 智能体生态的开放协议：Google 推出了 Agent2Agent（A2A）通信协议，阿里云则在"百炼"平台上全面上线 MCP（Model-Connection Protocol）全 生命周期服务。 Release of AI Agent Protocols: Google A2A Focuses on Collaboration, Alibaba Cloud MCP Enhances Tool Invocation [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis 点评： 谷歌推动智能体互联互通标准化：谷 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/计算机 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 政策催化农业信息化建设，技术助力拓展应用 场景 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 投资建议：本轮关税摩擦加剧宏观环境不确定性，农业强国战略意义重大，农 业信息化是加快发展高水平农业科技的必要组成，政策、资金、技术多重支撑。 建议关注标的：托普云农、理工能科；受益标的：新开普、和达科技。 关税战叠加农业强国战略落实，政策助推农业信息化发展。①4 月 7 日，国务 院印发《加快建设农业强国规划（2024—2035 年）》指出，要全领域推进农业科 技装备创新，以发展农业新质生产力推进农业强国建设；其中强调要促进数字 技术与现代农业全面融合，例如建设农业农村大数据平台、实施智慧农业建设 工程，推动规模化农场数字化升级，培育智慧农业集群。②2 月 23 日，国务院 《关于进一步深化农村改革 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》明确要拓展人工智 能、数据、低空等技术应用场景，以科技创新引领先进生产要素集聚，因地制 宜发展农业新质生产力。③2024 年农业农村部《关 ...