[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 20 Apr 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 等待中美贸易破局及国内政策刺激 Awaiting a Resolution in US-China Trade and Domestic Policy Stimulus 周林泓 Amber Zhou 陈昊飞 Haofei Chen, PhD 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com haofei.chen@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们预计市场将进入筑底，因此我们建议投资者逢低加仓，特别是恒生指数19,000-20,000点和上证综指3000- 3100点附近；行业方面，我们建议短期内关注一带一路和内需消费，中长期仍然建议关注科技改革并配以外贸重 塑受益标的。本周市场尚未回落至前低附近，全周恒生指数涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a NEUTRAL rating for Budweiser Brewing Co APAC with a target price of HK$7.90, down from HK$10.1 [2][12]. Core Insights - The Chinese market is under pressure, with a projected annual sales volume decline of 11.8% in 2024 and a market share contraction of 149 basis points [3][9]. - The company aims to reverse the downward trend in market share through inventory management optimization, channel expansion, and product innovation, although challenges remain [3][9]. - The South Korean market shows strong growth with a 3.6% increase in sales volume and an 8.7% increase in average selling price (ASP) in 2024, alongside a market share expansion of 349 basis points [4][10]. - In India, the high-end product portfolio is expected to see nearly 20% net income growth, with Budweiser's market share doubling over the past five years [4][10]. - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment period due to leadership changes and external trade challenges, focusing on channel transformation and management efficiency [5][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at US$6.246 billion, with a net profit of US$750 million, reflecting a decline in both revenue and profit compared to previous years [2][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted at $0.05, $0.05, and $0.06 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19x for 2025 [6][12]. - The company has implemented hedging operations for annual costs to manage risks associated with supply chain stability and currency fluctuations [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, targeting a price of HK$24.20 from the current price of HK$17.70 [1]. Core Insights - Guming Holdings is positioned as a leading 4A (Available, Adorable, Affordable, Addicted) freshly-made beverage brand in China, focusing on the growing demand for fresh, convenient, and cost-effective drinks, particularly in lower-tier cities [1][6]. - The company has established a robust supply chain and utilizes digitalization to enhance operational efficiency, aiming for steady national expansion [3][6]. - Guming is the second-largest freshly-made tea beverage brand in China by GMV, holding a market share of 9.1%, and the largest in the mass market segment with a 17.7% share [1][6]. Company Overview - Guming Holdings operates a network of 9,914 stores across 17 provinces in China, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities, where 41% of its stores are located in rural areas [1][6][29]. - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues of RMB 10.84 billion, RMB 12.84 billion, and RMB 14.42 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 23%, 18%, and 12% [1][4]. - Guming's net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.88 billion, RMB 2.19 billion, and RMB 2.38 billion over the same period, with a diluted EPS forecasted to grow from RMB 0.90 in 2025 to RMB 1.14 in 2027 [1][4]. Industry Insights - The freshly-made beverage market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.5% from 2018 to 2023, significantly outpacing the overall beverage market's growth of 9.4% [2][13]. - The market for freshly-made beverages is projected to reach RMB 11,634 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.6% from 2023 to 2028 [13]. - Freshly-made tea and coffee dominate the market, with their combined market size expected to grow substantially, reflecting changing consumer preferences towards higher quality and fresh products [13][19].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating, projecting EPS for 2025-27 at RMB 0.96, 1.01, and 1.19 respectively [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a revenue of RMB 1.93 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 2.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 220 million, down 17.6% year-over-year [4][9]. - The report highlights that the company's performance is influenced by several factors, including a profit increase in 2023 due to fee reversals, a decrease in photovoltaic utilization hours, and lower finance expenses contributing positively to profits [4][9]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 410 million, representing an 87.5% year-over-year increase, driven by improved water inflow and reduced capital expenditures [4][9]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 1,990 million, with a significant decline of 23.8% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be RMB 265 million, down 36.1% [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in water inflow, estimating an increase in hydropower sector net profit by RMB 130 million in 2025 [4][9]. - The report also notes that the company's financial structure is expected to improve, with potential increases in dividends as a result of capital structure enhancements [4][9]. Comparable Company Valuation - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is projected at 16.3x, with the report assigning a PE of 18.5x for the company, leading to a target price of RMB 17.76 [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's competitive positioning within the industry, particularly in relation to peers such as Guiguan Electric [4][9].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 股本摊薄） 数据来源：Wind，公司公告，HTI 中科软（603927）公司年报点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 非保险 IT 增速亮眼， AIGC 应用多场景落地 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 | [Table_FinanceInfo] 财务摘要（百万 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元） 营业收入 | 6,503 | 6,671 | 7,233 | 7,866 | 8,520 | | (+/-)% | -3.0% | 2.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | | 净利润（归母） | 655 | 355 | 383 | 505 | 658 | | (+/-)% | 2.6% | -45.8% | 7.9% | 31.7% | 30.3% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.79 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 0.79 | | 净资产收益率( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer sector, particularly regarding Tencent's AI initiatives through WeChat [3][4]. Core Insights - The best AI feature for WeChat is its core function of conversation, which aligns with user habits and increases usage frequency. The launch of the AI assistant "Yuanbao" indicates Tencent's strategic direction in AI [3][4]. - "Yuanbao" integrates into WeChat's friend system, offering features like one-click analysis of articles, images, and documents, along with smart interaction capabilities [5][6]. - The system can handle 8 million concurrent requests with a response time of less than 1.2 seconds, ensuring a smooth user experience [7]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Advice**: The report suggests that the integration of AI into WeChat represents a significant step for Tencent's AI strategy, potentially prompting increased investment in the AI sector by other players [3][4]. - **Yuanbao Features**: "Yuanbao" is designed for WeChat, avoiding complex functions and ensuring local data processing. It allows users to interact similarly to a ChatBot, providing simple and complex responses through links to the Yuanbao app for advanced services [6][7]. - **Tencent's AI Development**: Tencent is accelerating its AI development, with significant capital expenditure planned for 2025, focusing on AI as a strategic investment area [7].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/计算机 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 2025 年 04 月 17 日 投资建议：OpenAI 在 GPT-4.1 之后，短时间内又发布了 o3 和 o4-mini，再次 佐证目前 AI 技术的发展从未停歇，仍然处于稳定发展的状态。而且在 OpenAI o3 的整个研发过程中，研究者观察到一个现象：大规模强化学习同样遵循 着 GPT 系列预训练时显现的规律——即「投入越多的计算资源，就能获得越 好的性能」。会"用图像思考"以及"会用工具"只是一个开始，未来我们有望看 到更多推理跨领域的创新，我们持续看好计算机板块。 近日，OpenAI 发布了 OpenAI o3 和 o4-mini 模型。该系列模型在回应之前会 进行更长时间的思考。o3 是 OpenAI 最强大的推理模型，它在编码、数学、 科学、视觉感知等多个领域拓展了前沿。它在 Codeforces、SWE-bench（无 需构建定制的模型特定框架）和 MMMU 等基准测试中创造了新的最佳成绩。 o3 在视觉任务上表现尤为出色，比如分析图像、图表和图形。OpenAI o4-mini 则是一个经过优化的较小的模型，用 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/计算机 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 2025 年 04 月 15 日 [Table_AuthorInfo] OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.1，价格更低背景下全面超 越 GPT-4o [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资建议：GPT-4.1 系列模型的发布，再次凸显了现在 AI 业界的趋势："性能 提升的同时降低成本"，GPT-4.1 系列模型性能大幅提升，处理能力达 100 万 tokens，在编码、指令遵循、长文本理解等方面表现优异，且成本更低。这 将吸引更多开发者接入 OpenAI 的 API，从而推动相关 AI 应用开发和业务拓 展，提升 OpenAI 市场竞争力，为产业链上下游带来新的投资机会，刺激科 技股市场活跃度，推动人工智能板块估值提升，我们维持计算机板块"增持" 评级。 OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.1 系列模型，性能提升成本更低。4 月 15 日，OpenAI 在 API 中推出三款新模型：GPT-4.1、GPT-4.1 mini 和 GPT-4.1 na ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for the company, indicating expected performance above the market average over the next 12-18 months [19][28]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a performance turnaround, with significant growth in emerging business sectors such as IGBT, wiring harness, and semiconductor applications. The lithium battery business is also recovering, leading to a positive outlook for future earnings growth [5][19]. - The target price is set at RMB 52.26, based on a 50x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, which is higher than the industry average [5][7]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 525 million in 2023 to RMB 1,318 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.7% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 67 million in 2023 to RMB 249 million in 2027, with a notable recovery in profit margins [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 1.05, RMB 1.80, and RMB 2.17 respectively [5][19]. Business Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 585 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a net profit of RMB 86 million, up 29.04% year-on-year [20]. - The revenue from power battery ultrasonic welding equipment decreased significantly by 53.48% year-on-year, while parts business revenue increased by 70.45% [5][20]. - New business segments, including wiring harness connectors and semiconductor ultrasonic equipment, contributed 21.95% to total revenue [20]. Research and Development - The company maintains a high R&D investment rate of 21.65%, focusing on new product development and customer adoption in various sectors [5][20]. - The R&D efforts have led to breakthroughs in ultrasonic applications across multiple industries, including automotive, medical devices, and consumer electronics [5][17].