研究报告 Research Report 8 Sep 2025 [Table_Author] 胡佳璐 Rebecca Hu 李一腾 Yiteng Li 刘坤钰 Kunyu Liu 现制饮品行业：持续调整，表现分化。现制饮品行业自 2024 年至 今处于快速扩容后的调整期。1H25 外卖平台补贴短期提振单店， 助力品牌营收和利润的提升。但由于大部分品牌以加盟为主，虽 单店增加，但加盟门店经营利润受到实收率下降的影响并未同幅 度提升，持续考验各公司门店运营和供应链能力，推动业绩表现 有所分化。分公司看，1H 瑞幸咖啡、蜜雪集团和古茗仍维持较快 拓店速度，且收入和利润均有较快增长。其他公司中，沪上阿姨 同比增速提升，且利润率有所改善；霸王茶姬和茶百道尚在调整 阶段，但门店仍在增长；奈雪的茶则在通过门店调改逐步扭亏。 潮玩行业：景气度高，IP 运营能力持续提升。潮玩行业整体处于 快速增长周期，但各公司由于所处发展阶段和业务模式差异，表 现也各有不同。2025 年是泡泡玛特的爆发之年，也是公司长期专 注 IP 孵化及运营带来的成果兑现之年，见证了 LABUBU 风靡全球 并成为真正的世界级 IP，同时毛绒品类首次反超手 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 464.20, up from a previous target of HKD 269.70 [2][21]. Core Insights - The company's "ADC+IO" strategy is progressing steadily, with early-stage molecules expected to demonstrate their potential [1][5]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.23 billion for 1H25, representing a growth of 22.9%, primarily driven by licensing and collaboration income [3][16]. - The company has a strong cash position of RMB 3.75 billion, which is sufficient to support its clinical and early-stage R&D investments for the next 3-5 years [4][17]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 1.75 billion, RMB 0.97 billion, and RMB 1.37 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10%, -44%, and +41% [10][21]. - The company recorded a net loss of RMB 2.08 billion in 1H25, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 150 million after excluding fair value changes of preferred shares [3][16]. - The gross profit margin is projected to decline from 76.1% in FY2023 to -19.2% in FY2026 [14][15]. Pipeline and Collaborations - The company is advancing three ADC programs in collaboration with BioNTech, which are currently in Phase I/II clinical trials [5][18]. - The DB-1303 (HER2 ADC) is expected to file for FDA BLA for endometrial cancer and NDA submission in China for HER2+ breast cancer in 2H25 [20]. - The newly disclosed DB-1317 (ADAM9 ADC) is about to enter Phase I trials, showing an ~80% response rate in preclinical models [19][20]. Valuation - The company is valued using a DCF model based on FY26-34 cash flows, applying a WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5% [10][21]. - The revised target price of HKD 464.20 reflects the company's potential for future royalty income from BioNTech [21].

研究报告 Research Report 8 Sep 2025 安能物流（开曼） ANE (Cayman) (9956 HK) 2025H1 业绩点评：费控保障盈利韧性增长，中期分红超预期 FY2025H1 Performance Review: Expense Control Supports Profit Growth, Interim Dividend Exceeds Expectations [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$9.66 目标价 HK$11.60 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$11.37bn / US$1.46bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$3.10mn 发行股票数目 1,177mn 自由流通股 (%) 56% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$9.66-HK$6.66 注：现价 ...

分化延续，终端需求需提振 [Table_Authors] 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 36 期） 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.07 2025-09-08 告 本报告导读： 消费分化、投资平淡，生产短期有所调整，价格受需求因素主导 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 [Table_Report] [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费方面，服务消费受暑期结束拖累，跨区域 迁徙、游乐场所客流等指标同比降幅扩大；商品消费分化，纺织服 装因秋冬备货需求回暖，汽车、高端白酒仍显弱势。投资方面，地 产市场仍处调整阶段，销售与土地市场平淡，尽管专项债发行进度 较快，但对基建实物工作量的支撑仍显不足。进出口方面，短期港 口数据走弱或反映出口表现一般，但美欧制造业 PMI 回升或预示下 阶段外需存在改善可能。生产方面，钢铁、轮胎等行业开工率下行， 反映短期政策影响和下游需求压力，而纯碱因玻璃、光伏需求支撑 表现较好。价格方面，CPI 平稳运行，PPI。流动性层面，跨月后资 金利率回落，央行逆回购净回笼调节流动性，美元指 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of HK$67.35, current price at HK$32.76 [2][5] Core Insights - Revenue and profit showed steady growth in 25H1, driven by increased outpatient visits, with revenue reaching RMB 1.49 billion (+9.5%) and outpatient visits at 2.75 million (+15.3%) [3][11] - The company is focusing on the launch of AI avatars for doctors and overseas expansion, with expectations for significant commercial realization of AI products in 2025 [4][13] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown for 25H1: offline revenue at RMB 1.37 billion (+11.1%) and online revenue at RMB 0.13 billion (-5.2%), indicating a stronger focus on offline medical institutions [3][11] - Gross margin improved to 30.6% (+1.2 pp), with net profit reaching RMB 150 million (+41.6%) and adjusted net profit at RMB 170 million (+15.2%) [4][12] - Forecasted revenue for 2025 and 2026 is RMB 3.40 billion and RMB 4.03 billion, respectively, with net profit projected at RMB 410 million and RMB 490 million [5][14] Operational Developments - The company added seven TCM clinics in 25H1, including three acquisitions and four self-built, and entered two new cities (Chengdu and Shantou) [3][11] - AI technology is being deployed to enhance service quality, with ten "National Physician AI Avatars" launched across various medical fields [4][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Hygeia Healthcare, with a target price of HK$35.17, indicating a significant upside from the current price of HK$14.58 [3][6]. Core Insights - The operating performance for the first half of 2025 remained relatively stable, with a notable improvement in cash flow [1][5]. - Revenue for 1H25 was RMB 1.99 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 16.5% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 3.6%. Oncology services accounted for 44% of total revenue [4][13]. - The company operates 16 oncology-focused hospitals and is actively catering to international patients, particularly from Malaysia and Indonesia [4][13]. - Gross margin was under pressure due to new hospital openings and the impact of DRGs and centralized procurement, resulting in a gross margin of 26.6%, down 5.2 percentage points [4][14]. - Adjusted net profit for 1H25 was RMB 260 million, a decrease of 34.5% year-over-year but an increase of 30.2% quarter-over-quarter, with a net margin of 13.2% [4][14]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects revenue for 2025 and 2026 to be RMB 4.49 billion and RMB 4.65 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth of 1.0% and 3.7% [6][16]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 610 million and RMB 690 million for 2025 and 2026, reflecting growth rates of 6.1% and 7.6% [6][16]. - Operating cash flow improved to RMB 460 million, a 29.9% increase, while capital expenditures decreased by 28.5% to RMB 240 million [5][15]. - Free cash flow surged to RMB 210 million, marking a significant increase of 1,611% [5][15]. Valuation and Market Position - Hygeia Healthcare is recognized as a leading private healthcare provider with quality hospital assets and long-term brand value, justifying the target price of HK$35.17, which corresponds to a P/E ratio of 32x for 2025 and 29x for 2026 [6][16]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$9.02 billion (approximately US$1.16 billion) and a free float of 54% [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary sector, including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Anta Sports, Gree Electric, and others [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on consumer sub-sectors with favorable risk/reward ratios, highlighting bottom opportunities in the market [1][4]. - The performance of various consumer sectors is analyzed, with gold and jewelry, overseas cosmetics, and domestic cosmetics showing positive growth, while luxury goods and overseas sportswear sectors experienced declines [4][12]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings indicate that the gold and jewelry sector led with a 4.0% increase, followed by overseas cosmetics at 1.7% and domestic cosmetics at 1.4%. In contrast, overseas sportswear saw a significant decline of 4.2% [4][12]. - Monthly performance shows overseas cosmetics leading with an 8.8% increase, while overseas sportswear experienced a decline of 2.9% [12]. - Year-to-date performance highlights gold and jewelry with a remarkable 175.3% increase, while overseas sportswear faced a decline of 12.0% [12][13]. Sector Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are valued below their average over the past five years, with the overseas sportswear sector expected PE at 34.3 times, which is 61% of its historical average. The domestic sportswear sector is expected to have a PE of 14.1 times, 80% of its historical average [9][18]. - The gold and jewelry sector's expected PE is 27.1 times, 48% of its historical average, while the luxury goods sector is expected at 24.3 times, 44% of its historical average [9][18]. - The report indicates that all sectors' expected PE for 2025 is lower than their historical averages, with only the household goods sector's EV/EBITDA exceeding its historical average [18].

研究报告 Research Report 7 Sep 2025 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliance Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 澳优 | | | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 九毛九 | | Outperform | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | 康 ...

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Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the nuclear power sector, particularly focusing on small modular reactors (SMR) as a key energy solution for AI data centers and other high-energy demand technologies [5][34]. Core Insights - The North American core data center market has doubled in size since 2020, with vacancy rates dropping to approximately 2% and 70% of the 8GW under construction already pre-leased, indicating a supply gap that may persist until 2027 [17]. - The report highlights a significant increase in gas turbine price indices, with a year-on-year growth of 4.43% and a month-on-month increase of 3.8% as of July 2025, driven by tight supply-demand dynamics [19]. - The average spot price of uranium globally was reported at $75.13 per pound in July 2025, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous month, while heavy rare earth prices also showed upward trends [4]. Summary by Sections Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - The North American data center market has seen a substantial increase in size, with a vacancy rate of about 2% and a projected supply gap extending to 2027 [17]. - Companies are locking in capacity 18-24 months in advance, with rental rates increasing at a compound annual growth rate of 12% over three years [17]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index has shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.43% and a month-on-month increase of 3.8% as of July 2025 [19]. - The report anticipates that the future growth of the gas turbine market in the U.S. will be driven primarily by the development of AI data centers [22]. Global Energy Industry - TVA is partnering with ENTRA1 to deploy six SMR power plants, aiming to add up to 6GW of new installed capacity, which could power approximately 4.5 million homes or 60 new data centers [32][33]. - The U.S. government is taking steps to accelerate the approval process for nuclear power deployment, with plans to significantly increase nuclear capacity by 2050 [35]. Global New Materials - The report notes that the average spot price of uranium was $75.13 per pound in July 2025, marking a 6% increase from the previous month [4]. Global Defense and Aerospace - The report indicates a stable recovery in the aerospace sector, with increased defense spending and modernization needs, suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies like BAE Systems and Howmet Aerospace [6].