Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent years, the trading activity of 30-year treasury bonds has significantly increased, and their large return elasticity can be used for stock-bond hedging strategies. The report analyzes the stock-bond hedging value of 30-year treasury bonds from aspects such as background, principle, hedging strategy performance, and tool selection [7][9][14] - The stock-bond seesaw effect has been magnified in recent years, mainly due to the flow of residents' deposits into wealth management products and the bond market entering a negative carry environment [4][29][34] - The risk parity strategy using 30-year treasury bonds to hedge equities has good performance, and the dynamic ratio hedging strategy is better than the static ratio hedging strategy [5][53][58] - The ETF tracking the 30-year treasury bond index is a better tool for hedging equities, with advantages such as large return elasticity, convenient trading, and low fees [6][76][77] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Background: 30-year Treasury Bond Trading Activity Significantly Increased and Used More in Stock-Bond Hedging - Since 2023, the trading activity of 30-year treasury bonds has significantly increased. The daily turnover rate has risen rapidly from 1% to a peak of 28%, exceeding that of 10-year treasury bonds. The secondary trading volume of various institutions in 30-year treasury bonds has increased from 10.3 trillion yuan in 2022 to 43.0 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 318% [14] - In a low-interest rate environment, institutions pursue trading value to increase returns, and 30-year treasury bonds are favored by institutions due to their long duration and strong ability to earn returns. At the same time, investors' use of 30y treasury bonds in stock-bond hedging helps improve the liquidity of the variety [10][16][22] Principle: Analysis of the Stock-Bond Seesaw - **Introduction to the stock-bond seesaw effect**: It refers to the inverse relationship between the stock market and the bond market, which can be understood from economic expectations, risk preferences, and capital flows [4][24][26] - **The stock-bond seesaw effect has been magnified in recent years**: From 2023 - 2024, the proportion of trading days with a stock-bond seesaw increased to over 50%, and the correlation coefficient of daily price changes increased from 8.6% to around 30%. The number of days with an "obvious stock-bond seesaw effect" in 2024 increased significantly compared to 2021 - 2023 [4][29][32] - **Reasons for the magnification of the stock-bond seesaw effect**: The flow of residents' deposits into wealth management products and the bond market entering a negative carry environment make the bond market more sensitive to negative news, thus magnifying the stock-bond seesaw effect [4][34][35] Stock-Bond Hedging Strategy Performance: Risk Parity Model of 30-year Treasury Bonds Hedging Equities - **Risk parity strategy model 1.0: Static ratio hedging**: Based on the volatility of the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year treasury bond index since 2014, a 1:4 hedging ratio is set. The Sharpe ratio of the stock-bond static hedging strategy is significantly increased compared to a single stock index [5][53][55] - **Risk parity strategy model 2.0: Dynamic ratio hedging**: After monthly dynamic adjustment of the hedging ratio for the large-cap stock index, the dynamic hedging strategy can achieve higher returns and Sharpe ratios than the static ratio hedging strategy, and outperform any single stock or bond asset. The dynamic hedging strategy for mid-cap and small-cap indices also performs better, but is slightly weaker than that for the large-cap index [5][58][64] Tool Selection: The ETF Tracking the 30-year Treasury Bond Index is a Better Tool for Hedging Equities - **30-year treasury bond spot**: The active bond scale is 200 billion yuan, and attention should be paid to bond replacement when using it for stock-bond hedging [6][67][69] - **30-year treasury bond futures**: It fills the gap in long-term interest rate risk management tools, but there are limitations in institutional participation [6][70][71] - **ETF tracking the 30-year treasury bond index**: It has advantages such as large return elasticity, convenient trading, and low fees, and can be a better tool for hedging equities [6][76][77]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [30]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a business volume growth rate of 20.3% in March, with SF Express showing the highest growth rate at 25.4% [5][8]. - The total business volume for the first three months reached 451.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [5]. - The industry revenue for March was 124.6 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year, while the cumulative revenue for the first three months was 345.64 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% [5][8]. - The average revenue per piece in March was 7.48 yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative average of 7.66 yuan, down 8.8% [5][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the express delivery industry is 311.276 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 301.749 billion yuan [4]. - The industry has a concentration ratio (CR8) of 86.9%, indicating a high level of market concentration [8]. Company Performance - In March, the business volume growth rates for major companies were as follows: SF Express (25.4%), YTO Express (22.5%), Shentong Express (20.1%), and Yunda Express (17.3%) [5][8]. - For the first three months, Shentong Express led with a cumulative growth rate of 26.6%, followed by Yunda Express (22.9%) and YTO Express (21.7%) [5]. - Revenue growth rates in March were led by Shentong Express (14.7%), YTO Express (13.4%), and SF Express (10.6%) [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a full-year business volume growth rate of 21% for 2024, supported by strong demand resilience [5]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the competitive pricing strategies of leading companies, as the industry trends towards "anti-involution," which is expected to benefit the performance elasticity of express delivery companies in the medium to long term [5].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250418 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债跟随正股下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.00%、上证综指环比下降 0.11%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.23%、创业板指环比上涨 0.27%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.08%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.13%。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.46%、大盘价值环比上涨 0.36%、中盘成长环比下降 0.07%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.32%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.01%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.02%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 445.61 亿元，环比 减少 1.35%；万得全 A 总成交额为 9491.74 亿元，环比减少 7.88%；沪深两市 主力净流出 140.17 亿元，十年国债收益率环比降低 0.29bp 至 1.65%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 116.33 元，环比昨日下降 0.00%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 150.94 元，环比 下降 0.41%；偏债型转债的收盘 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - ASML reported Q1 2025 revenue of €7.742 billion, a decrease of 16.42% QoQ but an increase of 46.35% YoY, aligning with previous guidance of €7.5-8 billion[2] - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 54.0%, up 2.3 percentage points QoQ and 3.0 percentage points YoY, exceeding the expected range of 52-53%[2] - Equipment sales accounted for €5.7 billion, with Installed Base Management revenue at €2 billion, slightly below the guidance of €2.1 billion[8] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by region: Taiwan 16%, South Korea 40%, Mainland China 27%, USA 16%, Japan 1%[14] - In Q1 2025, equipment orders totaled €3.936 billion, with logic business representing 60% and memory business 40%[11] Group 3: Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, ASML expects revenue between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, a QoQ decrease of 7.00% to 0.54% and a YoY increase of 15.33% to 23.34%[19] - Full-year 2025 revenue is projected to be between €30 billion and €35 billion, with a gross margin of 51%-53%[20] Group 4: Market Dynamics - AI remains a key driver for industry growth, with potential for revenue to reach the upper end of guidance if demand continues and clients can scale production[3] - The company anticipates a slight decline in the revenue share from Mainland China, projected to be just above 25% in 2025[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 245 million yuan, up 28.42% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in its overseas business, with international revenue reaching 456 million yuan, a 45.23% increase year-on-year [2][9]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the robotics sector, providing complete actuator solutions for humanoid robots, which include various advanced components [2][9]. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow to 2.08 billion yuan in 2025, 2.51 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.96 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 26.8%, 20.5%, and 18.3% [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 318 million yuan in 2025, 399 million yuan in 2026, and 478 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 29.9%, 25.4%, and 19.6% respectively [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.51 yuan in 2025, 1.89 yuan in 2026, and 2.26 yuan in 2027 [5][10]. Business Segments - The company’s inverter segment generated revenue of 1.035 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 27.18% year-on-year, supported by a comprehensive product strategy [2][9]. - The servo systems and control systems segment achieved revenue of 495 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.09% [2][9]. - The PLC (Programmable Logic Controller) segment is expanding into the mid-to-high-end market while maintaining a strong presence in the small PLC market [2][9]. Market Position - The company is enhancing its international market presence through strategic global expansion, actively participating in international exhibitions and optimizing its export product structure [2][9]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 9.68 billion yuan, with a current share price of 45.80 yuan and a target price of 60.4 yuan [5][10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 台积电（TSM）2025Q1 业绩点评及法说会纪要 FY25Q1 业绩符合预期，指引乐观 AI 需求持 续强劲 事项： 2025 年 4 月 17 日台积电发布 2025 年 Q1 季度报告，并召开业绩说明会。 2025Q1，公司实现营收 8392.5 亿新台币/255.3 亿美元，美元计价同比增长 35.3%，环比减少 5.1%；毛利率为 58.8%，同比提升 5.7pct，环比下降 0.2pct。 评论： 1. 业绩总览：25Q1 实现营收 8392.5 亿新台币/255.3 亿美元（美元计价：QoQ- 5.1%，YoY+35.3%），超过指引中值（此前指引为 250~258 亿美金）；AI 相关 需求持续增长在一定程度上抵消了智能手机的季节性变化。25Q1 实现毛利率 58.8%（QoQ-0.2pct，YoY+5.7pct），接近指引上沿（前期指引为 57%~59%）， 环比下降主要系 1 月 21 日地震的影响，以及海外工厂产能爬升带来的稀释效 应。25Q1 实现归母净利润 3615.6 亿新台币（QoQ-3.5%，YoY+60.3%），25Q1 实现净利率 43.1%（QoQ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.563 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.07%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.315 billion yuan, up 8.99% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the steady increase in sales of phosphate compound fertilizers and the rising proportion of new-type fertilizers, which have contributed to improved gross margins [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to a total of 376 million yuan, which represents 28.63% of the annual net profit [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the phosphate compound fertilizer segment generated a revenue of 14.74 billion yuan, with production and sales volumes of 6.407 million tons and 5.486 million tons, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.4% and 8.3% [9]. - The gross margin for the phosphate compound fertilizer segment was recorded at 16.66%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points year-on-year, with new-type fertilizers achieving a gross margin of 21.22% [9]. - The company has invested in new projects, including a 150,000-ton water-soluble fertilizer and a 300,000-ton acid residue fertilizer project, enhancing its integrated supply chain advantages [9]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 17.037 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.5% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.643 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 24.9% [5]. - The report provides a target price of 18.34 yuan for 2025, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times [5].

天润乳业（600419）2024 年报点评 推荐（上调） 疆外驱动稳增，盈利持续修复 当前价：11.08 元 事项： ❖ 天润乳业发布 2024 年报。24 年实现总营收 28.04 亿元，同比+3.33%；归母净 利润 0.44 亿元，同比-69.26%；扣非归母净利润 0.76 亿元，同比-45.78%。单 Q4 实现营收 6.49 亿元，同比+2.76%；归母净利润 0.21 亿元，去年同期为-47.34 万元；扣非归母净利 0.02 亿元，去年同期为-401.26 万元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2804 | 2951 | 3139 | 3327 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 44 | 121 | 169 | 202 | | 同比增速(%) | -69.3% | 177.3% | 39.4% | 19.9% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 32.5 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a clear improvement path in response to adjustments, with a 2024 revenue of 4.211 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and a net profit of 325 million yuan, up 15.7% [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.65 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 47% [1]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing its core business and expanding into new retail markets, particularly in response to challenges in the domestic market [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financial Metrics**: - Total revenue: 4,211 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 17.6% - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 325 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 15.7% - Earnings per share: 1.37 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio: 18 times [1][6]. - **Future Projections**: - 2025E revenue: 4,746 million yuan (growth of 12.7%) - 2025E net profit: 404 million yuan (growth of 24.4%) - 2026E revenue: 5,377 million yuan (growth of 13.3%) - 2026E net profit: 502 million yuan (growth of 24.2%) - 2027E revenue: 5,962 million yuan (growth of 10.9%) - 2027E net profit: 588 million yuan (growth of 17.0%) [1][10]. Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing a mixed performance across different regions, with strong growth in the Americas and Europe, while facing challenges in the domestic market due to weak demand from traditional customers [5]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and adapt to market changes, particularly through organizational restructuring and team upgrades [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][23]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with sufficient orders and optimized product structure. The revenue for Q1 2025 reached 1.217 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.33%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 65.61% [8]. - The company is experiencing robust growth driven by the automotive and data communication sectors, with a strong focus on electric vehicles and artificial intelligence applications. The company has established partnerships with leading clients such as Tesla and BMW, leveraging its early entry into the automotive PCB market [8]. - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 6.716 billion yuan in 2025 and 9.862 billion yuan in 2027, alongside net profits of 879 million yuan and 1.35 billion yuan respectively [3][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 5.022 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 675 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 36.2% [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.94 yuan in 2024 to 1.87 yuan by 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [3][8]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 26 times in 2024 to 13 times in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [3][8].