Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.21 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 10.71% and 83.69% respectively [2]. - The company is facing short-term pressure on its performance but is expected to see a turning point in operations in the future [2]. - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 50 million yuan, 135 million yuan, and 171 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 55, 21, and 16 respectively [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 785 million yuan, with a net profit of -3 million yuan, indicating a year-over-year revenue decline of 12.09% [2]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 25.1%, down 2.3 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - The company plans to accelerate product iteration and channel expansion to improve future operations [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its retail channels and has increased its coverage in lower-tier cities, with a 3% increase in city-level coverage and a 12% increase in county-level coverage by mid-2025 [2]. - Online sales through major platforms like JD and Tmall have seen significant growth, with revenue from emerging platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou exceeding 100% growth [2]. - The company is shifting its focus towards the hotel and public building sectors to adjust its customer structure [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 49.09, indicating an expectation of over 20% outperformance against the benchmark index in the next six months [2][24]. Core Insights - The company is accelerating its global business expansion, having added four new branches through strategic acquisitions domestically and formed a partnership with Singapore's digital healthcare platform 1doc for overseas growth [2]. - The management's confidence in the company's future is demonstrated through a significant share buyback program, which has seen a total repurchase of 8.14 million shares for approximately HKD 247 million [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 3,022 million in 2024 to HKD 4,845 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from HKD 307 million in 2024 to HKD 664 million in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 30.5% in 2025 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 1.26 in 2024 to HKD 2.87 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [4]. Strategic Developments - The company has successfully entered key cities such as Tianjin, Chengdu, and Shantou, enhancing its regional service capabilities through strategic acquisitions [8]. - The partnership with 1doc aims to leverage existing healthcare networks in Singapore, facilitating the company's international expansion and patient conversion in integrated Chinese and Western medicine settings [8]. Share Buyback Program - Since initiating the buyback plan on September 1, 2025, the company has conducted 42 repurchase transactions, with a total buyback volume of 8.14 million shares and a total investment of approximately HKD 247 million [8]. - The board has approved an additional buyback authorization of up to HKD 300 million, bringing the total buyback scale to a record HKD 600 million since the company's listing [8].

关注央行的两个指引——2025年三季度货币 政策执行报告学习心得 事 项 2025 年 11 月 11 日，中国人民银行发布 2025 年第三季度《中国货币政策执行 报告》，我们学习心得如下。 ❖ 核心观点 宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 1、对于 M2 同比而言，央行在专栏一《科学看待金融总量指标》提示后续贷 款增速略低一些也是合理的。结合我们理解来看，由于当下贷款以生产性信贷 为主，贷款增速回落有助于供需均衡的改善。不过贷款增速的回落会影响广义 货币（M2）的增长规模。在不考虑财政加速发债的背景下，8 月末 M2 同比的 8.8%或是未来半年的最高点。M2 同比回落的情境下，后续企业跟非银流动性 的改善则需要观察居民存款搬家的持续性。 2、对于货币政策而言，我们仍然维持短期降准降息概率不高的判断。结合央 行在专栏二《基础货币与货币的关系》的表述，当下金融层面的困境并非最后 贷款人的缺位，而是最后借款人的缺位。借款人缺位的背景下，即使基础货币 投放很多，也只是银行的超额准备金增加，货币创造也不一定改善。特别是考 虑到短期金融市场投资回报高于实体经济的背景下，我们认为央行降准降息释 放出的资金 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 海外业务短期承压 目标价：38.3 元 事项： | 海外业务短期承压 | 目标价：38.3 元 | | --- | --- | | 年三季报点评 巨星科技（002444）2025 | 推荐（维持） 当前价：31.64 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 ❖ 公司发布 2025 年三季报，25Q1-Q3 实现营业收入 111.6 亿元，同比+0.7%；实 现归母净利 21.55 亿元，同比+11.4%。其中，单三季度营业收入为 41.3 亿元， YoY-5.8%；实现归母净利润 8.8 亿元，YoY+19.0%。 评论： [主要财务指标 ReportFinancialIndex] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 14,795 | 15,771 | 17,684 | 19,910 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.4% | 6.6% | 12.1% | 12.6% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Huamao Logistics (603128) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decline in net profit for Q3 2025, with a net profit of 0.8 billion, down 53% year-on-year, primarily due to increased investments in overseas capabilities during the cultivation period, which has put short-term pressure on profits [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 137.2 billion, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 49.5 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year but up 3.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 12.8 billion, down 18.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.4%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024A is 17,525 million, with a projected decline of 0.6% in 2025E, followed by growth of 9.1% in 2026E and 7.9% in 2027E [2] - The net profit forecast for 2024A is 539 million, with a significant projected decline of 27.0% in 2025E, followed by a recovery to 15.0% growth in 2026E and 14.8% in 2027E [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.41 in 2024A, decreasing to 0.30 in 2025E, and then gradually increasing to 0.35 in 2026E and 0.40 in 2027E [2] Business Development - The company is actively expanding its overseas logistics network, having established new overseas companies in countries such as Indonesia, Uzbekistan, and Saudi Arabia, in line with the "Belt and Road" initiative [6] - As of June 2025, the company has over 90 self-owned overseas points, covering major ports and core logistics cities across six continents, with more than 40 self-operated overseas warehouses totaling 800,000 square meters [6] - The company is enhancing its comprehensive logistics services, extending international air transport capabilities to overseas terminals and opening new shipping routes in East Africa, the Middle East, and Indonesia [6] Investment Suggestion - The report forecasts net profits of 3.9 billion, 4.5 billion, and 5.2 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.30, 0.35, and 0.40, and PE ratios of 21, 18, and 16 respectively [6] - The target price is set at 7.6 yuan, representing a 22% upside from the current price of 6.24 yuan, maintaining the "Recommendation" rating [2][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the historical cases of subordinated debt non - redemption, analyzes the characteristics, subsequent progress, and credit risk outlook of non - redemption, aiming to help investors better understand the credit risk characteristics of subordinated debt. Since the non - redemption announcement of "22 Hongdou MTN003" by Hongdou Group in October 2025, the risk of subordinated debt non - redemption has attracted attention. The report suggests paying more attention to subordinated debt of insurance companies and industrial entities with operational pressure and weak shareholder support in the future [2][11][54]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Subordinated Debt Concept and Classification - Subordinated bonds are debt instruments with repayment priority after general liabilities but before common stock equity, featuring high risk and high return. As of November 10, 2025, the scale of outstanding subordinated debt was about 10.7 trillion yuan, with the financial industry accounting for about 8.5 trillion yuan [3][12]. - Most subordinated debts have a call option, and issuers usually have a strong incentive to call. The call motivation is mainly based on the interest rate jump - up mechanism and the "decreasing" nature of capital. Non - financial enterprise subordinated debts are mostly used to repay interest - bearing debts and supplement working capital, while financial institution subordinated debts are mostly used for capital replenishment [19]. - For non - perpetual subordinated debts (mainly 5 + 5), there is a "decreasing" nature of capital, and insurance companies have a stronger call motivation due to the interest rate jump - up mechanism. For perpetual subordinated debts (mainly 5 + N), most securities companies and non - financial enterprises set an interest rate jump - up mechanism [20][21]. - For non - financial enterprises, perpetual bonds are not necessarily subordinated debts. For financial enterprises, perpetual bonds are all subordinated debts. If an issuer announces non - redemption, it may indicate fundamental pressure and difficulties in rolling over subordinated debt, posing risks such as duration mismatch and investment losses for investors [25]. 3.2 Historical Case Review of Subordinated Debt Non - Redemption - As of November 10, 2025, 70 entities with 88 subordinated debts had non - redemption events, involving a bond scale of about 76.5 billion yuan. Non - redemption mainly occurred in commercial bank secondary capital bonds, concentrated in weak - qualified banks in Liaoning Province, and was common in low - rated subordinated debts [4][27][37]. - In terms of industry type, non - redemption mainly occurred in banks and insurance companies, with 74 and 7 non - redeemed bonds respectively, accounting for 84% and 8% of the total number of non - redeemed subordinated debts, and involving scales of 45.5 billion yuan and 17.6 billion yuan, accounting for 59% and 23% respectively [27]. - In terms of enterprise nature, non - redemption mainly occurred in public enterprises, but the number of non - redemption events among private enterprises has increased since 2024 [5][37]. 3.3 Subsequent Progress of Subordinated Debt Non - Redemption - After 88 subordinated debts were not redeemed, 1 bond defaulted, 1 was extended, 65 continued to exist normally, and 21 were fully redeemed at or before maturity. Only a few entities could successfully issue subordinated debt again after non - redemption, and the issuance had non - market - oriented characteristics. Some weak - qualified entities may continue to not redeem subordinated debt [6][45][49]. 3.4 Credit Risk Outlook of Subordinated Debt Non - Redemption - In the past, the risk of subordinated debt non - redemption was mainly concentrated in banks, but recently, risks of insurance companies and industrial entities have gradually emerged. In the future, when analyzing the risk of subordinated debt non - redemption, it is recommended to pay more attention to insurance companies and industrial entity subordinated debts with operational pressure and weak shareholder support [7][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 44.36 CNY per share [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported steady growth in Q3 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 3.9 billion, 0.5 billion, and 0.4 billion CNY respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 10.5%, 11.4%, and 11.0% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.3 billion CNY, net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4 billion CNY, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1.1 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.7%, 15.2%, and 19.8% respectively [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with a notable performance from the newly launched keratin toothpaste, which is positioned in the high-end gum care market [7]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 45.9%, a decrease of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the proportion of high-margin online sales channels [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,560 million CNY in 2024 to 2,453 million CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.4%, 17.8%, 16.0%, and 15.1% respectively [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 161 million CNY in 2024 to 294 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 14.1%, 19.5%, 23.9%, and 23.1% respectively [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.94 CNY in 2024 to 1.71 CNY in 2027 [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 40 times in 2024 to 22 times in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [70]. Core Insights - In October, the wholesale sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 2.93 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [2]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 55%, with wholesale sales of electric vehicles at 1.62 million units, marking an 18% year-on-year increase [8]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Geely Automobile and BYD, with a focus on Geely's low valuation for the upcoming year [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In October, the production of narrow passenger vehicles was 2.95 million units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase and a 4% month-on-month increase [2]. - The report estimates that retail sales for October were approximately 2.34 million units, showing a 3% year-on-year increase [8]. Sales Performance - The wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in October were 1.62 million units, with a penetration rate of 55%, which is a 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [8]. - The report indicates that the wholesale sales of domestic car manufacturers reached 2.14 million units in October, a 12% year-on-year increase [8]. Pricing and Inventory - The industry discount rate slightly increased in late October, with an average discount rate of 9.6%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase month-on-month [8]. - The total inventory is estimated to be around 3.1 million units, with fuel vehicle inventory at approximately 850,000 units, indicating a higher overall inventory compared to the same period last year [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter will see a seasonal inventory reduction, with retail sales expected to reach 7.73 million units, a 6% year-on-year increase, while wholesale sales are projected to be 8.67 million units, a 1% year-on-year decrease [8]. - Potential catalysts for recovery in the automotive sector include better-than-expected retail sales post-Spring Festival and improved export performance [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 30.6 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 1.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 236 million CNY, up 5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its precision components business while actively developing markets for new energy vehicles and industrial machinery, which is expected to open up growth opportunities in the future [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2024A is 1.357 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 1.0% in 2024, 11.8% in 2025, 18.2% in 2026, and 16.1% in 2027 [4][9]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profit for 2024A is 289 million CNY, with growth rates of 9.6% in 2024, 9.0% in 2025, 21.8% in 2026, and 14.4% in 2027 [4][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2024A is 0.58 CNY, increasing to 0.88 CNY by 2027 [4][9]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 43 in 2024, decreasing to 29 by 2027 [4][9]. Business Development Summary - The first tier of the company's industry is expected to continue providing stable growth, including core components for turbochargers and various precision parts [8][9]. - The establishment of Anhui Best, a wholly-owned subsidiary, is aimed at accelerating production capacity in the new energy vehicle sector, focusing on lightweight structural components and high-value precision parts [8][9]. - The third tier, involving industrial machinery and linear actuators, is also expanding, with the company developing high-precision components and enhancing its integrated solutions [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations with sales revenue of $635 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2%. The gross margin reached 13.5%, surpassing previous guidance [7]. - The company anticipates Q4 2025 sales revenue between $650 million and $660 million, with a gross margin forecast of 12% to 14% [7]. - The overall capacity utilization rate for Q3 2025 was 109.5%, with the 8-inch capacity fully loaded and the 12-inch capacity ramping up, indicating strong operational efficiency [7]. - The acquisition of Shanghai Huali Microelectronics is progressing as planned, which is expected to enhance the company's process layout and production scale [7]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a high-demand cycle, with strong profitability in its 8-inch capacity and rapid expansion in its 12-inch capacity [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are $14,388 million, $17,266 million, $22,204 million, and $26,114 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.4%, 20.0%, 28.6%, and 17.6% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be $381 million, $541 million, $1,011 million, and $1,423 million for the same years, with growth rates of -80.3%, 42.3%, 86.8%, and 40.7% respectively [2][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.22, 0.31, 0.58, and 0.82 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [2][8].