证券研究报告 【宏观专题】 货币黄金增长规模创 2011 年以来的历史记 录 -- 2025年Q1跨境资本李度跟踪 核心观点。 � 1) 2025Q1 跨境资本流动格局与 2023Q4~2024Q3 相似,外资继续净流入而内 资继续净流出,只是跨境资本净流出规模扩大至202101以来的最高水平。2) 2025Q1 跨境资本净流出的主要源于内资流出 4811 亿美元,达到 2021Q1以来 的最高水平。3)2025Q1 内资证券投资流出规模创 2011年以来的历史记录(内 资证券投资流出包含"港股通"等渠道)。4)2025Q1货币黄金增长创纪录, 2022年以来央行累计增持 1126万盎司黄金。 跨境资本净流出以及内资净流出规模达 2021年以来最高水平。 � 宏观专题 2025年07月18日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66500887 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 证券分析师:李星宇 邮箱:lixingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360524060001 相关研究报告 2025O1 直接投资净流出 1103 亿美元(202 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 07 月 18 日 推荐（维持） 汽车行业新能源销量跟踪报告 25H1 销量维持高增，中期需踏准节奏布局 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 232 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 52,122.63 | 4.89 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 33,537.11 | 4.00 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 4.0% | 12.2% | 34.2% | | 相对表现 | -0.2% | 6.4% | 19.0% | -11% 6% 23% 40% 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/05 25/07 2024-07-18~2025-07-17 汽车 沪深300 相关研究报告 《【华创汽车】车企车系跟踪：4-5 月自主 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 货币黄金增长规模创 2011 年以来的历史记 录——2025 年 Q1 跨境资本季度跟踪 ❖ 核心观点。 1）2025Q1 跨境资本流动格局与 2023Q4~2024Q3 相似，外资继续净流入而内 资继续净流出，只是跨境资本净流出规模扩大至 2021Q1 以来的最高水平。2） 2025Q1 跨境资本净流出的主要源于内资流出 4811 亿美元，达到 2021Q1 以来 的最高水平。3）2025Q1 内资证券投资流出规模创 2011 年以来的历史记录（内 资证券投资流出包含"港股通"等渠道）。4）2025Q1 货币黄金增长创纪录， 2022 年以来央行累计增持 1126 万盎司黄金。 ❖ 跨境资本净流出以及内资净流出规模达 2021 年以来最高水平。 2025Q1 跨境资本继续净流出，净流出额为 3167 亿美元。具体来看，2025Q1 内资回流 0 亿美元，外资流入 1954 亿美元，外资撤出 310 亿美元，内资流出 4811 亿美元。2025Q1 跨境资本净流出的主要驱动因素是内资流出 4811 亿美 元，达到 2021Q1 以来的最高水平。哪些因素推动 2025Q1 ...

宏观快评 2025年07月17日 证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 关税已在美国通胀中体现了多少? 主要观点 美国 6月份 CPI 略低于预期 8 CPI 同比从 2.4%升至 2.7%,预期 2.7%;核心 CPI 同比从 2.8%升至 2.9%,预 期 3%。CPI 环比 0.3%(两位数 0.29%),预期 0.3%(两位数 0.26%),前值 0.1%:核心 CPI 环比 0.2%(两位数 0.23%),预期 0.3%(两位数 0.25%),前 值 0.1%。环比来看,CPI 涨幅回升,一是油价上涨对能源价格的拉动;二是受 关税影响较明显的商品对核心商品的拉动;三是超级核心服务涨幅扩大。 市场降息预期小幅降温,期货市场定价的全年降息次数从1.93次降至 1.76次, 9 月降息概率从 60.1%降至 55%,年末政策利率预期从 3.846%升至 3.89%。 有多少关税已经体现在 CPI中? 8 关税的通胀效应在 6月数据中有较为明显的呈现,比如家具家居品(1%,前 左观研究 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66500887 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S03605 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【专题报告】 指数基金调样交易策略研究 指数 ETF 规模不断扩大，在指数调样日的交易对市场冲击显现。 指数 ETF 投资规模持续攀升，宽基指数 ETF 成增长核心力量，指数调仓效应 凸显。本文主要研究如何降低 ETF 基金跟踪误差，测算调仓成交量分配和市 场冲击，为指数基金调仓算法提供使用建议。 多数指数基金提前 3 天换仓，在指数调样生效前一交易日成交量达到峰值。 以指数调样生效日为 T+0 日，指数调样成交量从 T-3 日逐步放大，并在 T-1 达 到峰值，指数调样后被调入调出股票交易量迅速下降至历史平均值。价格走势 上部分指数提前调样 5-4 日可以获得调仓收益或相对较低的调仓成本，3 日内 调仓成本迅速上升。 在指数调样生效前三日按照 2：3：5 的中枢比例换仓，并做调整。 如果以历史成交量分布作为指数调仓比例，建议 T-1 日作为主要调仓日，T-3 日：T-2 日：T-1 日调仓交易量占比为 2:3:5，并以此为基础综合考虑价格变动， 冲击成本，可适当下浮 T-3/T-2 日调仓占比，上浮 T-1 日调仓占比。 红利指数和沪深 300 指数推荐使用 MOC 算法，中证 10 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 关税已在美国通胀中体现了多少？ 主要观点 美国 6 月份 CPI 略低于预期 CPI 同比从 2.4%升至 2.7%，预期 2.7%；核心 CPI 同比从 2.8%升至 2.9%，预 期 3%。CPI 环比 0.3%（两位数 0.29%），预期 0.3%（两位数 0.26%），前值 0.1%；核心 CPI 环比 0.2%（两位数 0.23%），预期 0.3%（两位数 0.25%），前 值 0.1%。环比来看，CPI 涨幅回升，一是油价上涨对能源价格的拉动；二是受 关税影响较明显的商品对核心商品的拉动；三是超级核心服务涨幅扩大。 市场降息预期小幅降温，期货市场定价的全年降息次数从 1.93 次降至 1.76 次， 9 月降息概率从 60.1%降至 55%，年末政策利率预期从 3.846%升至 3.89%。 有多少关税已经体现在 CPI 中？ 关税的通胀效应在 6 月数据中有较为明显的呈现，比如家具家居品（1%，前 值 0.3%）、服装（0.4%，前值-0.4%）、娱乐用品（0.8%，前值 0.4%）等。那么 目前有多少关税已经体现在美国 CPI 中？ 首先，估算的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in the performance of major airlines in Q2, driven by resilient domestic demand and ongoing recovery in international routes [7]. - The report emphasizes the constraints on supply and the reduction in oil prices, which are expected to alleviate cost pressures for airlines [7]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for specific airlines, particularly Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines, due to their competitive advantages in the domestic market [7]. Summary by Sections Airline Data Analysis - In June, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (12.4%), followed by Eastern Airlines (6.5%) and Southern Airlines (4.6%) [1]. - For the first half of the year, cumulative ASK growth was highest for Spring Airlines (9.5%) and Eastern Airlines (7.5%) [1]. - In June, the RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth rates were also led by Spring Airlines (11.6%) and Eastern Airlines (10.0%) [1]. - Cumulatively, Eastern Airlines had the highest RPK growth in the first half of the year at 12.2% [1]. Domestic and International Routes - Domestic route performance in June showed Spring Airlines leading with an ASK growth of 10.5%, while international routes saw significant growth from 吉祥航空 (46.9%) [2][3]. - Cumulatively, for the first half of the year, 吉祥航空 had the highest ASK growth in international routes at 65.6% [2]. Passenger Load Factor - In June, the passenger load factor was highest for Spring Airlines at 92.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points [3]. - For the first half of the year, Spring Airlines maintained the highest load factor at 90.5%, despite a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [3]. Fleet Growth - As of June 2025, the total fleet of the five listed airlines increased by 5 aircraft, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [3][19]. Financial Performance Forecast - The report forecasts significant improvements in the financial performance of major airlines for the first half of 2025, with Huaxia Airlines expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 2.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 875% [7][9]. - In contrast, the three major airlines (Air China, Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines) are expected to report losses, but with reduced loss margins compared to the previous year [7][10].

Economic Growth - GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year[4] - Nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.9%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1%[28] - Contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 52.3%, up from Q1[30] Price and Volume Imbalance - Contribution rate of volume to nominal GDP growth is 132%, while price contribution is -30.6%, indicating a high level of imbalance[4] - Historical data shows that the current volume contribution rate of 132.1% is the highest among the last seven peaks[14] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth rate in June is -0.1%, down from 2.7% in May, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments declining[7] - Consumer spending growth in Q2 is 5.2%, slightly above income growth of 5.1%[32] Employment and Income - Total rural migrant workers is 19.139 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[6] - Average monthly income for migrant workers in Q2 is up 3.0%, down from 3.3% in Q1[40] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment growth rate in June is -12.9%, with sales area down 5.5% year-on-year[54] - New housing prices in 70 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 5.2% decline previously[28]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 三季度美债供给压力有多大？ 国债净发行额≈财政赤字+TGA 余额变动（财政部期末现金余额目标-期初现 金余额）。基于这一公式，根据 CBO 预测值，2025Q3 财政赤字=0.6 万亿美元， 根据财政部再融资会议计划 Q3 财政部期末现金余额目标-期初现金余额（TGA 净增长）=0.52 万亿美元，则 2025Q3 国债净发行额估算值=1.12 万亿美元，这 一规模为仅次于 2020Q2 的最高值。 另外，私人部门国债供给压力的实际衡量指标为财政部实际季度融资额≈国 债净发行额+美联储缩表净减持（假设美联储净减持 200 亿美元，财政部会对 这 200 亿美元国债发行新债务进行滚续，因此国债净发行额=0，但这 200 亿美 元国债需要由私人投资者所购买，因此财政部实际季度融资额会增加 200 亿 美元）。在本文我们简单假设 2025Q3 假设美联储在债务发行压力下 SOMA 净 减持为 0，即财政部实际季度融资额估算值=1.12 万亿美元（2023Q3 财政部实 际融资额为 1.01 万亿美元）。 2、国债发行压力是否会重演 2023Q3 的供给恐慌？ 2023 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [22]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 449 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.07%, and a net profit of 91 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122.28% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to see revenues of 257 million yuan, up 58.64% year-on-year and 33.91% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 52.91% [1]. - The company is focusing on the commercialization of its CIM edge products, driven by strong demand for low-power, high-performance edge devices in the AI sector [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 652 million yuan in 2024 to 1.663 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 107 million yuan in 2024 to 354 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 33.9% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.73 yuan in 2024 to 2.42 yuan in 2027 [3]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is estimated to decrease from 78 times in 2024 to 23 times in 2027, indicating improving valuation [3]. Product Development and Market Position - The company is a leading low-power AIoT chip designer, focusing on the mid-to-high-end smart audio SoC market, and is a major supplier for Bluetooth audio SoCs [7]. - The introduction of the MMSCIM architecture is aimed at meeting the growing demand for low-power edge AI products, with significant advancements in product penetration and sales growth [7]. - The company has successfully launched several AI audio chips and is actively working on the second generation of CIM technology to enhance performance and efficiency [7].