Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for resource stocks, emphasizing the continued performance of the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on copper imports, which have led to a decrease in domestic copper prices by 1.63% [5]. - It notes a decline in aluminum ingot inventory and an increase in aluminum rod inventory, indicating mixed trends in the aluminum market [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong earnings growth forecasts for several companies in the sector, driven by production increases and favorable raw material prices [5][7][8]. Industry Overview - **Basic Industry Data**: The non-ferrous metals sector comprises 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,100.02 billion and a circulating market value of 27,077.84 billion [2]. - **Performance Metrics**: The sector has shown a 6.0% absolute performance over the past month and 18.7% over the past year, indicating a positive trend [3]. - **Copper Market**: The report discusses the implications of a 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the U.S., which has led to a significant market reaction and price adjustments [5]. - **Aluminum Market**: The report notes a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory and an increase in aluminum rod inventory, suggesting a complex market dynamic influenced by both supply and demand factors [5]. Company Insights - **Yun Aluminum Co.**: The company forecasts a 7.19% to 11.16% increase in net profit for H1 2025, attributed to full production capacity and favorable raw material prices [5]. - **Zhongfu Industrial**: Expected net profit growth of 53.35% to 62.37% for H1 2025, driven by cost reductions and increased sales prices [5]. - **Jincheng Mining**: Anticipates a net profit increase of 74.62% to 82.78% for H1 2025, supported by higher sales volumes and effective cost control measures [5]. - **Hunan Gold**: Projects a 40% to 60% increase in net profit for H1 2025, primarily due to rising sales prices of gold and antimony products [7]. - **Huayou Cobalt**: Forecasts a net profit increase of 55.62% to 67.59% for H1 2025, benefiting from integrated operations and rising cobalt prices [8]. - **North Rare Earth**: Expects a staggering net profit increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% for H1 2025, driven by significant growth in production and sales of rare earth products [8].

推荐（维持） "反内卷"，建议关注钢铁股底部修复机遇 行业观点：淡季供需双弱，市场情绪好转带动钢价上涨 事件一：截至 7 月 11 日，五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3288 元/吨、3602 元/吨、3296 元/吨、3732 元/吨、3394 元/吨，周环比 分别变化+2.70%、+1.76%、+2.76%、+2.99%、-0.59%。本周五大品种产量 872.72 万吨，周环比下降 12.44 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 239.81 万吨，周环比 下降 1.04 万吨，高炉产能利用率 89.9%，周环比下降 0.39 个百分点，高炉开 工率83.15%，周环比下降 0.31个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率 50.36%， 周环比下降 0.69 个百分点，电炉开工率 63.59%，周环比下降 3.28 个百分点。 库存方面，本周钢材总库存 1339.58 万吨，周环比下降 0.35 万吨。其中社会库 存环比下降 2.12 万吨至 914.01 万吨；钢厂库存环比上升 1.77 万吨至 425.57 万 吨。需求端，本周五大材合计消费量 873.07 万吨，周环比下降 1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业周报（20250707-20250711） Grok 4 发布：xAI 引领 Agent 加速落地 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 07 月 13 日 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.2% | 4.0% | 51.4% | | 相对表现 | 6.1% | 5.5% | 37.8% | 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周志浩 邮箱：zhouzhihao1@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 338 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 45,343.43 | 4.40 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 39,023.53 | 4.82 | 相对指数表现 -9% 21% 52% 82% 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/07 2024-07-15~2025-07-11 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, which serves as a market fear index. It reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[7]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance process - \( \mu \): Drift rate of the asset price - \( \kappa \): Rate of mean reversion of variance - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of volatility - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Two Wiener processes with correlation \( \rho \)[7]. - **Model Evaluation**: The Heston model is widely used in financial markets for its ability to capture the stochastic nature of volatility, making it a robust tool for implied volatility estimation[7]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Multi-Industry Timing Factor (Scissor Difference) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is based on the difference between the number of stocks with bullish and bearish signals within an industry. It is used to construct an industry timing strategy[15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define the number of stocks with bullish signals as \( N_{bullish} \) and bearish signals as \( N_{bearish} \). - Compute the scissor difference as: $ \text{Scissor Difference} = N_{bullish} - N_{bearish} $ - Normalize the scissor difference by the total number of stocks in the industry to obtain the scissor difference ratio: $ \text{Scissor Difference Ratio} = \frac{N_{bullish} - N_{bearish}}{N_{total}} $ - Use this ratio to construct an industry timing strategy[15]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The backtesting results show that the timing model outperforms the respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical performance[15]. --- Backtesting Results of Models and Factors 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 14.41% (+2.91% WoW)[9] - SSE 500: 15.4% (+0.83% WoW)[9] - CSI 1000: 18.09% (+1.24% WoW)[9] - CSI 300: 14.48% (+3.15% WoW)[9] 2. Multi-Industry Timing Factor - **Performance Metrics**: - The timing model outperformed the respective industry indices in all cases, with a 100% success rate in backtesting[15]. - Specific industries with bullish signals include retail, light manufacturing, home appliances, and others[18].

金融工程 金工周报 2025 年 07 月 13 日 【金工周报】（20250707-20250711） 形态学仅少部分宽基指数看多，后市或中性 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 1.09%，创业板指单周上涨 2.36%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型大部分宽基指数看多。低波动率模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构 模型看空。特征成交量模型看多。智能沪深 300 模型看多，智能中证 500 模型 看多。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。月历效应模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型所有宽基指数中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看多。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看多。 证 券 研 究 报 告 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，除汽车、家电、银行外所有行业均上涨，涨幅前五的 行业为：综合金融、房地产、非银行金融、钢铁、综合。从资金流向角度来说， 除非银行金融、综合外所有行业主力资金净流出，其中电子、基础化工、机械、 电力及公用事业、医药主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 96.26%，相较于上周增加了 20 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 81.47%，相较于上周增加了 90 个 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 通信行业周报（20250707-20250713） 博通管理层会议指引积极，Grok 4 正式发布，建 推荐（维持） 议关注海外算力链景气度机遇 行业研究 通信 2025 年 07 月 13 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧子兴 邮箱：ouzixing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080007 联系人：谢然 邮箱：xieran@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 123 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 49,248.97 | 4.66 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 23,006.93 | 2.77 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.7% | 18.6% | 30.5% | | 相对表现 | 4.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | -13% 3% 18% 33% 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/07 2024-07-12~2025-0 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 政策双周报（0627-0712）：落实"反内卷"整 治工作，"对等关税"延期 宏观基调：落实"反内卷"整治工作，"两重"建设项目全部下达 （1）反内卷：中央财经委第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设， 要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质， 推动落后产能有序退出。 （2）两重：8000 亿元"两重"建设项目清单全部下达完毕。 （3）民生：国务院加大稳就业政策支持力度，人力资源社会保障部、财政部 提高退休人员基本养老金水平。 财政政策：增量财政储备政策适时推出，三季度国债发行调节奏 （1）政策基调：业内专家认为财政增量储备政策料将适时推出；财政部部长 表示致力于促进贸易投资自由化便利化。 （2）债券供给：财政部公布三季度国债发行计划，较此前年度计划调整了部 分品种的旬度发行节奏。 （3）地方专项债：专项债投向扩围，助力稳增长与地方产业升级；发改委等 三部门允许地方债专项债支付零碳园区。 货币政策：6 月央行未开展国债买卖，"南向通"投资机构扩容至非银 （1）政策基调：央行"适度宽松"的货币政策延续。 （2）国债买卖：6 月央行未进行国债买 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 45 期） 海外市场观察：JOBY 触及百亿美金市值里 推荐（维持） 程碑，西锐再创股价新高 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 1）从商业模式理解，我们认为公司，生产端属于高端制造业，航空制造门槛 高壁垒高，24 年前三大市占率近半；销售端属于高端消费品，公司深耕私人 飞机领域，面向 C 端客户为主，产品近年来持续提价，24 年相较于 21 年，公 司 SR2X 系列售价提升了 26%，愿景喷气机提升了 24%，典型类高端消费品 属性。2）海外比较：我们观察海外上市公司中，巴航工业 Wind PEttm 23 倍， 德事隆集团 Wind PE ttm 18.5 倍，均明显高于西锐。注：我们预计公司 202 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The bond market fluctuated weakly this week due to multiple negative disturbances such as regulatory guidance on rural commercial bank bond investment and the supply of real estate and ultra - long - term bonds. The adjustment range of credit bonds was smaller than that of interest - rate bonds, and the spreads were mostly passively narrowed. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon individual bonds after the stock - bond seesaw effect, which helps to further narrow the credit spreads. It is advisable to allocate high - coupon varieties on rallies, and pay attention to the right - hand opportunities for long - term credit bonds after the market stabilizes [2][5]. - For institutions with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds. For institutions with strong liability - side stability, take advantage of stable liabilities to extend the duration and actively allocate long - term varieties [2][14]. - When considering taking profits on long - term credit bonds, pay attention to three time points: when funds continue to net buy but credit spreads do not further compress significantly; when the net buying power of funds weakens or turns to small net selling; and using 10 - 15BP above the lowest spread last year as a reference line [5][13]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog I. Bond Market Review and Credit Strategy Outlook - This week, the equity market sentiment was strong, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Most credit bond yields rose, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. The 3y - and - below short - end spreads of most varieties were compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term varieties still had some room [5][9][12]. - Looking forward, with the current fundamental pattern unchanged significantly and the second - quarter economic data being relatively strong, the risk of a trend reversal in the bond market is controllable. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon bonds, and if the adjustment continues next week, it may bring better layout opportunities [5][13]. II. Key Policies and Hot Events - Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. announced adjustments to the principal and interest repayment arrangements of 21 bonds, indicating that the debt restructuring of real - estate enterprises is accelerating and risk clearing is speeding up [2][16]. - Gansu Province established a 10 - billion - yuan provincial emergency working capital pool, with 2 billion yuan from provincial finance and 8 billion yuan from bank supporting financing, to support key enterprises in repaying due debts and effectively alleviate debt risks [2][3][16]. - The central bank and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced three opening - up optimization measures at the "Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025", which may bring new investment opportunities for Chinese overseas bonds traded in the Hong Kong market [2][3][17]. - Ten science - innovation bond ETFs completed their issuance, raising a total of 28.988 billion yuan, with subscriptions being extremely popular. Attention should be paid to the subsequent scale expansion [3][17]. III. Secondary Market - Credit bond yields generally rose this week, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. In terms of different varieties: - For urban investment bonds, yields generally rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of high - coupon urban investment bonds within 3y and extend the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties [20]. - For real - estate bonds, low - grade varieties were relatively weak. Currently, real - estate bond yields are still attractive, and attention can be paid to 1 - 2y central and state - owned enterprise real - estate AA and above varieties [21]. - For cyclical bonds, coal and steel bond yields mostly rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. For coal bonds, appropriate credit - risk exposure can be taken for short - end varieties, and the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties can be extended to 3y. For steel bonds, consider short - duration AA + implicit - rated varieties [21]. - For financial bonds, bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds generally underperformed, with yields rising and spreads mostly narrowing. Brokerage sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds also had yield increases and spread narrowing [22]. IV. Primary Market - This week, the credit bond issuance scale was 287.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 66.8 billion yuan, and the net financing was 88.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 47.8 billion yuan. The urban investment bond issuance scale was 102.3 billion yuan, an increase of 39.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 26 billion yuan, an increase of 174 billion yuan [6]. V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity of credit bonds in the inter - bank market decreased, while that in the exchange market increased [6]. VI. Rating Adjustments - This week, 1 entity's rating was downgraded, and 6 entities' ratings were upgraded [6].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 长久期信用债后续如何参与，何时止盈？ ——7 月信用债策略月报 5 月下旬以来信用债挖票息行情向长端演绎，长久期信用债净买入规模明显放 量，市场参与热情较高。去年资产荒行情极致演绎下长久期信用债在同期时点 也走出了独立行情，但去年 8 月后债市波动较大，长久期信用债流动性不足的 风险暴露，估值出现明显调整。今年机构参与长端品种相对谨慎、关注止盈时 点，近期股债翘板效应扰动债市，后续长久期信用债如何参与？ 长久期信用债行情演绎期间机构参与情况如何？ 机构净买入力量是影响长久期信用债行情演绎的重要因素。1）5-7y 中票：去 年长久期信用债行情演绎阶段机构净买入量较前期涨幅较小，但部分时点规模 相对较高，进一步推动了其利差收窄。今年 5 月下旬以来净买入量明显增长， 机构行为对该期限区间的行情驱动较去年或有增强。2）7-10y 中票：基金净买 入力量的波动是影响利差变化的重要因素，两轮长久期信用债行情中基金连续 大规模净买入的同时信用利差也出现快速收窄，而在去年 8 月中下旬基金转 为大规模净卖出，利差开始出现快速大幅走阔。3）10y 以上中票：今年基金参 与力量有 ...