行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251215-20251219） 推荐（维持） 通胀放缓，商品价格继续上行 观点：我们认为美国通胀数据好于市场预期，但考虑"停摆"的联邦政府部门 11 月 13 日才陆续开始恢复工作，新的通胀和就业等数据可能存在误差，市场可 信度相对有限，贵金属价格仍维持震荡运行，从失业率看劳动力市场在持续降 温。展望后续，我们仍看好贵金属表现，在全球宏观经济形势充满不确定性的 情况下，黄金的避险需求和投资需求或持续存在，央行购金需求仍有上行空间； 而白银受工业需求爆发、库存挤兑危机与金融政策转向，本周白银价格首次突 破 65 美元/盎司，再创历史新高，考虑白银供需连续 5 年存在缺口以及低库存 支撑，且当前白银已被列入美国关键矿产清单，白银 ETF 需求的持续大增进 一步或加剧现货市场挤兑担忧，白银价格更具弹性。 行业观点 2：新的铜精矿年度长单价格持续低位增大冶炼减产预期 事件：根据 12 月 20 日 SMM 新闻，中国冶炼厂与 Antofagasta 敲定 2026 年铜 精矿长单加工费 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨与 0 美分/磅。2025 年铜精矿加 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业周报（20251215-20251219） 推荐（维持） 智谱、稀宇通过聆讯，大模型厂商上市在即 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 12 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 338 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 56,738.11 | 4.75 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 51,410.85 | 5.37 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -4.8% | 19.5% | 13.3% | | 相对表现 | -4.4% | 0.7% | -2.5% | -14% 1% 17% 32% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 2024-12-23~2025-12-19 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 《计算机行业重大事项点评：L3 级智驾获准入许 可，高阶智驾迈入新纪元》 2025-12-16 《计算机行业重大事项点评：Dee ...

华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20251215-20251221） 推荐（维持） 中小银行"减量提质"加速推进 行业研究 银行 2025 年 12 月 21 日 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 114,991.99 | 13.04 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 78,973.67 | 11.41 | 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：徐康 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.0% | 17.3% | 17.7% | | 相对表现 | 2.8% | 15.6% | 24.4% | -9% 3% 14% 26% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 2024-12-23~2025-12- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 12 月 21 日 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/12/15~2025/12/19） 市场交投活跃度环比下行，贴水幅度有所 推荐（维持） 收敛 1）沪深 300 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为-0.2%/-1.3%/-7.9%；2）中 证 1000 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为-0.6%/-1.7%/-2.7%；3）中证 2000 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为+0.3%/-0.1%/+6.4%；4）微盘股相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为+3%/-4.4%/+42.5%。 1）沪深 300 周/月/年初以来日均成交额分别为 4042/4187/3998 亿元，环比 -12.4%/-48.8%/+0.6%；2）中证 500 周/月/年初以来日均成交额分别为 2913/2855/2802 亿 元，环比 -9.4%/-48%/+0.8% ；3）中 证 1000 周 /月 /年初以来日均成交额分别为 3624/3692/3579 亿元，环比-8.3%/-44.3%/+0.5%；4） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, suggesting that the sector is expected to bottom out and presents a good opportunity for early investment in the upcoming year [3]. Core Insights - Traditional vehicle stocks continue to show weak performance, which is anticipated as the market awaits clarity on 1Q policies and retail trends. The report suggests that the current moment is a favorable time for positioning [3]. - The report highlights significant interest in the intelligent driving sector, particularly with L3 level autonomous driving vehicles, which are expected to gain traction in 2026 due to potential policy and standard implementations [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the automotive sector's recovery, particularly focusing on companies like Geely and JAC, which are expected to benefit from high-end product strategies and international expansion [5]. Data Tracking - In early December, the discount rate for vehicles decreased slightly, with an average discount amount of 22,156 yuan, down 1,238 yuan from the previous month. The discount rate was reported at 9.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [5]. - In October, wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6%. However, retail sales fell to 2.09 million units, down 9.2% year-on-year and 6.4% month-on-month [5]. - In November, BYD's delivery volume was 480,186 units, showing a significant month-on-month increase of 8.7%, while traditional automaker Geely's sales reached 310,000 units, up 24.0% year-on-year [6][26]. Industry News - On December 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved two L3 level autonomous driving vehicle models from Changan Automobile and BAIC Blue Valley [9][32]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance index increased by 0.09% this week, ranking 9th out of 29 sectors [10]. - The report mentions that the retail market for narrow passenger vehicles is expected to reach approximately 2.3 million units in December, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.4% but a year-on-year decline of 12.7% [34].

- The report discusses multiple quantitative timing models for A-shares, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term models. The short-term models include the Volume Model (neutral for all broad-based indices), Feature Institutional Model (bullish), Feature Volume Model (bearish), and Smart Algorithm Models (bullish for CSI 300, bearish for CSI 500)[1][12][77]. Medium-term models include the Limit-Up-Limit-Down Model (neutral) and the Up-Down Return Difference Model (bullish for all broad-based indices)[13][78]. The long-term model, the Long-Term Momentum Model, is bullish[14][79]. Comprehensive models like the A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model and the A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model are bearish[15][80] - For Hong Kong stocks, the medium-term models include the Turnover-to-Volatility Model (bullish) and the Hang Seng Index Up-Down Return Difference Model (neutral)[16][81] - The report emphasizes that timing strategies are not achieved through a single model but require a multi-cycle, multi-strategy system. It highlights the use of price-volume, acceleration, trend, momentum, and limit-up-limit-down perspectives to construct eight major models for market timing[9] - Backtesting results for the Double-Bottom Pattern show a weekly return of 0.29%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.27% during the same period. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of the Double-Bottom Pattern portfolio is 11.79%, slightly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's cumulative return of 12.02%[44] - Backtesting results for the Cup-and-Handle Pattern show a weekly return of 0.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.27% during the same period. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of the Cup-and-Handle Pattern portfolio is 9.27%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's cumulative return of 12.02%[44]

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 年末地产销售小幅探涨 ——每周高频跟踪 20251220 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅继续扩大。前期运力持续释放，煤炭产业链各环节 库存持续走高，叠加大型煤企外购价格大幅下调，引发中小煤矿、贸易商跟 风降价出货，煤炭价格持续下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格止跌回涨。主要钢材品种去库节奏维持偏快，建 材、螺纹表观需求小幅回升。 （3）沥青：开工率继续回落。沥青装置开工率环比-0.2pct 至 27.6%，同比- 0.9%。施工节奏继续放缓。 2、地产：（1）新房成交成交止跌回涨。12 月 12 日-12 月 18 日，30 城新房成 交面积环比+15.4%，同比-30%，降幅收窄。年末新房销售酝酿冲刺，本周回 升斜率仍不及同期季节性。（2）二手房成交季节性上行。二手房成交面积环 比+5.3%，同比-25%，较前周开始改善，总体符合季节性、与 2023 年节奏相 近。 消费相关：12 月中上旬乘用车零售同比-24% 1、汽车：12 月 1-14 日，全国乘用车市场零售 76.4 万辆，同比-24%，环比 +2%。 2、原油：价格继续下跌。市场预期俄乌局势或有缓和、俄原油供应可能放 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [28]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with SF Express and YTO Express continuing to outperform the industry [2]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" trend, highlighting the potential for revenue and performance elasticity in the upcoming verification period [3]. - The report recommends YTO Express and Shentong Express, noting their strong performance metrics and resilience in a slowing industry [3]. - Jitu Express is also recommended due to its significant growth in Southeast Asia, which supports stable profitability in the domestic market [3]. - SF Express is viewed positively despite short-term performance pressure, with effective operational activation mechanisms driving business scale expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In November, the industry completed a business volume of 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with a cumulative volume of 180.74 billion pieces for the year, up 14.9% [6]. - Industry revenue in November was 137.65 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, while cumulative revenue for the year reached 1,355.06 billion yuan, up 7.1% [6]. - The average revenue per piece in November was 7.62 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative average of 7.50 yuan, down 6.8% [6]. Company Performance - In November, SF Express led the industry with a business volume growth rate of 20.1%, followed by Shentong Express at 14.7% and YTO Express at 13.6% [6]. - Shentong Express reported the highest revenue growth in November at 33.1%, while YTO Express and SF Express had growth rates of 11.1% and 9.9%, respectively [6]. - The average revenue per piece for Shentong Express was 2.41 yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year, while SF Express reported 13.47 yuan, down 8.5% [6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trend as a key driver for performance elasticity among express delivery companies [3]. - The report notes that the capital expenditure peak for SF Express has passed, leading to a stabilization in depreciation and amortization [4]. - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) stands at 86.9%, indicating a high level of market concentration [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the pesticide industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][39]. Core Insights - The demand for glufosinate-ammonium is expected to continue growing due to improved cost-effectiveness and accelerated registration processes overseas [2]. - The glufosinate-ammonium industry has seen significant improvements in operational rates and inventory levels, with production increasing by 27.85% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [5][6]. - The report highlights the increasing global acceptance of glufosinate-ammonium, particularly in key agricultural markets such as the US, Canada, and Brazil, where registration certificates have expanded rapidly [13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Significant Improvement in Cost-Effectiveness of Glufosinate-Ammonium - The unit efficacy of glufosinate-ammonium is approximately 3.5 times that of glyphosate, with refined glufosinate-ammonium reaching about 6.3 times, making it more cost-effective despite higher nominal prices [8][11]. 2. Rapid Expansion of Overseas Registration Certificates for Glufosinate-Ammonium - The US saw a surge in registration certificates from 13 in 2019 to 90 in 2020, maintaining a high level in subsequent years, while Brazil and Canada have also shown significant growth in registrations [13][16]. 3. Biodiesel Demand Enhancing Economic Viability of Canola Cultivation - Canola-related applications account for approximately 39% of glufosinate-ammonium's downstream demand, driven by the increasing economic viability of canola cultivation in the context of biodiesel production [22][23]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on glufosinate-ammonium and refined glufosinate-ammonium industries, particularly companies like Lier Chemical and Hebei Chengxin, which are expected to seize opportunities in the accelerating industry growth [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insomnia treatment market, highlighting the potential for new drug sales performance in this sector [20][32]. Core Insights - The insomnia treatment market in China is characterized by a significant unmet need, with over 200 million individuals estimated to suffer from insomnia symptoms, representing a large consumer market potential [16][24]. - The report emphasizes the shift towards innovative insomnia medications, particularly focusing on new types of benzodiazepine receptor agonists (BZRAs) and dual orexin receptor antagonists (DORAs) as key areas for development [25][38]. - The introduction of new drugs like JY-202 (地达西尼) and DORA medications is expected to reshape the market dynamics, with a forecasted rapid increase in market share and sales [34][39]. Market Overview - The insomnia drug market in China has seen stagnant growth due to a lack of new effective treatments, with the market size in 2023 estimated at 31.62 billion yuan [24]. - The report outlines the historical sales performance of major insomnia medications, indicating a long gap since the last new product launch in 2007, which has contributed to the current market stagnation [24][25]. - The report projects a significant increase in the market size and sales for innovative insomnia drugs, particularly with the anticipated approval and market entry of new products [34][39]. Drug Development Trends - The report identifies two main directions for insomnia drug innovation: improvements on existing BZRAs and the development of DORAs, which are expected to have lower addiction risks and better patient compliance [25][38]. - The new drug JY-202 is highlighted for its selective action on the GABAA receptor, which may reduce side effects associated with traditional insomnia medications [34]. - The report also notes the successful clinical trial results for DORAs, which have shown significant improvements in sleep quality without the risk of addiction, making them suitable for broader consumer use [38][39]. Key Players and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like 京新药业 (JY-202) and 先声药业 (DORA medications) as they are positioned to capitalize on the emerging market opportunities in insomnia treatment [34][39]. - It recommends monitoring the sales performance of these new drugs as they enter the market, particularly in the context of changing consumer behavior and increasing awareness of sleep health [20][32].