证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车海外销量点评 5 月欧洲同比持续下滑，北美同比增幅收窄 事项： 海外轻型车销量同比基本持平、环比小幅增长。5 月海外轻型车合计约 463 万 辆、同比-0.1%、环比+2.1%。具体各地区： 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 07 月 14 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 证券分析师：夏凉 电话：021-20572532 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522030001 证券分析师：李昊岚 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010003 联系人：林栖宇 邮箱：linxiyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 232 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 50,730.05 | 4.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 32,553.74 | 3.91 | 相对指数表现 | % | ...

债券研究 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（0707-0713）：1.65%附近，关注 配置价值 债券周报 2025 年 07 月 14 日 华创证券研究所 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会——信用周报 20250607》 2025-06-07 证监会审核华创证券投 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 特朗普驱逐移民的进度如何？ ——海外周报第 98 期 主要观点 关税、减税以及移民政策可称为特朗普 2.0 任期的"三板斧"，市场对关税和 减税政策更为熟悉，但对移民政策了解相对较小。本篇周报简要梳理今年以来 特朗普政府驱逐移民的进度以及美国社会对移民态度的变化。 ❖ 美国有多少非法移民？ 从两个角度估算，截至 2024 年底，美国非法移民人数约为 1280-1520 万人， 假设非法移民的劳动参与率与所有移民群体一致（2025 年上半年为 66.3%）， 则非法移民贡献了约 850-1000 万的劳动力。 ❖ 今年以来驱逐了多少非法移民？ 特朗普承诺要实施美国史上最大规模的非法移民驱逐行动，但并未设定具体 目标。并且美国移民和海关执法局（ICE）驱逐出境的人数也不会定期公开发 布。但综合现有信息来看，今年以来美国移民驱逐人数相比存量规模很少。 第一，今年 2 月至 6 月，驱逐人数不到 10 万，不到存量非法移民的 0.7-0.8%。 根据 NBC 新闻获取的 ICE 内部数据，今年 2-6 月份，月度驱逐出境人数在 1- 2 万左右，2、3、5 月的驱逐 ...

公司研究 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告。25H1 预计实现营业收入 106.3 至 108.4 亿 元，同比+35.01%至+37.68%；归母净利润 23.1 至 24.5 亿元，同比+33.48%至 +41.57%；扣非归母净利润 22.2 至 23.6 亿元，同比+30.06%至+38.26%。单 25Q2 预计实现营业收入 57.82 至 59.92 亿元，同比+31.67%至+36.46%；归母净利润 13.3 至 14.7 亿元，同比+24.68%至+37.81%；扣非归母净利润 12.61 至 14.01 亿元，同比+16.51%至+29.44%。 评论： 证 券 研 究 报 告 东鹏饮料（605499）2025 年中报预告点评 强推（维持） 旺季加大费投，新品势能强劲 目标价：304 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15839 | 20729 | 25066 | 28962 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the solid-state battery equipment sector, indicating an expectation of significant growth in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry has achieved a milestone with the delivery of full solid-state production lines by Li Yuanheng, marking a rapid development in China's solid-state battery production capacity [7]. - The electric power equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 2.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.86 percentage points [8]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the electric vehicle sector, driven by the end of inventory reduction and anticipated growth in both European and domestic markets [4]. Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Progress - The first engineering samples from a GWh-level solid-state battery production line developed by Anhui Anwa New Energy have successfully rolled off the production line, with a design capacity of 1.25 GWh [7]. - The number of GWh-level solid-state battery production lines in China is expected to increase to seven, with over 30 pilot lines in development [7]. Market Performance Review - The electric new energy sector ranked 10th among 30 industry sectors, with a 2.68% increase, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.82% during the same period [8]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included solar energy (7.95%), fuel cells (2.99%), and distribution equipment (2.58%) [8]. New Energy Vehicle Industry Tracking - Lithium battery supply chain prices showed mixed trends, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.26% to 63,400 CNY/ton, while nickel sulfate decreased by 2.11% [29]. - Key announcements from listed companies included performance forecasts and stock reduction disclosures, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [41]. Valuation Situation - As of July 11, 2025, the electric new energy sector's valuation stood at 62x, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 13x, with specific segments like electric motors and energy storage showing even higher valuations [19]. - Notable companies in the sector include CATL, with a market cap of 124.91 billion CNY and a projected PE ratio of 22.8x for 2023 [28].

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that Xinjiang is benefiting from two major strategic shifts: from coastal economies to the Belt and Road Initiative, positioning Xinjiang as a frontier hub with geographical advantages. The balance is shifting towards energy security and dual carbon environmental goals, making coal chemical industry a focal point for Xinjiang's resource advantages [7][10] - The external environment for coal chemical development in Xinjiang is maturing, with factors such as rising coal prices and favorable industrial policies supporting the shift towards coal chemical production in the western regions of China [7][8] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index is reported at 109.14, with a week-on-week increase of 2.00%. The Xinjiang coal chemical investment index stands at 105.29, up 2.74%, and the Xinjiang state-owned enterprise reform index is at 113.32, reflecting a 1.24% increase [14] - The top three companies with the highest weekly gains include Guangdong Hongda (+16.69%), Fosda (+9.85%), and Xinyan Co. (+9.63%), while the companies with the largest declines are Baofeng Energy (-2.56%), Zhun Oil Co. (-3.10%), and ST Tianshan (-4.40%) [14] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 100 yuan/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 197 yuan/ton, and main coking coal at 700 yuan/ton. The price of methanol is reported at 1760 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -647.5 yuan/ton compared to East China [21][22] - In May 2025, the coal railway shipment volume from state-owned key coal mines reached 3.308 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.60%, while the raw coal production in Xinjiang was 46.651 million tons, up 23.44% year-on-year [21][22] Key News and Company Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has accepted the environmental impact assessment for the National Energy Group's Hami Energy Integrated Innovation Base project, which includes a significant investment in coal-to-oil technology [41][43] - Two coal-to-natural gas projects in Xinjiang have passed environmental impact assessments, each with a production capacity of 2 billion cubic meters per year, utilizing advanced coal-to-gas technology and low-carbon techniques [41][43] - Recent developments include the initiation of a 40 billion yuan coal tar deep processing project and a 257 billion yuan coal-to-ethylene glycol project, indicating a strong push towards enhancing Xinjiang's coal chemical industry [41][43] Overview of Key Projects - The report outlines several key coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, including the National Energy Group's coal-to-oil project with an investment of 170 billion yuan and a capacity of 400,000 tons per year, and the Xinjiang Shanneng Chemical's coal-to-olefins project with an investment of 209 billion yuan [46][47] - The total planned capacity for coal-to-natural gas is 41.6 billion cubic meters, coal-to-oil is 5 million tons, coal-to-olefins is 9.45 million tons, and coal-to-methanol is 17.5 million tons, with a total investment of 962.8 billion yuan [46][47]

Group 1 - The recent surge in the A-share market indicates the confirmation of a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through previous high points and showing significant trading volume, suggesting a recovery from earlier declines [1][8][6] - The impact of tariffs announced by Trump is viewed as limited, with historical examples indicating that trade wars do not significantly affect economic performance, as seen during the 1930 trade war [1][17][20] - The bull market is expected to generate three wealth effects: stabilizing expectations, supporting consumption, and restoring financing functions, with increased retail participation in the stock market [1][25][39] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that sectors tend to rotate after new highs, with financials, cyclical resources, and military industries frequently leading the market, while manufacturing and consumer sectors rely more on their own trends [2][43][44] - Potential rotation directions in the current market include non-bank financials and cyclical resource sectors, with expectations for real estate stabilization being crucial for economic recovery [3][7] - The report highlights that the current bull market is characterized by a significant inflow of funds into the stock market, driven by increased retail investor activity and policy support [1][25][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.5 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 14.5-15.0 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.91-11.63%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 950-1000 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.2-25.48% [2][4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue growth exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 10.05%-16.67%, and net profit growth of 14.88%-21.25% [2][8]. - The company benefits from demand in special industries, including new energy vehicles, aerospace, and integrated circuits, leading to rapid growth in technology innovation-related business orders [8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 36.24 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 4.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [8]. - The financial indicators show a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenue of 40.10 billion yuan in 2026 and 44.30 billion yuan in 2027 [4][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.60 yuan in 2024 to 0.97 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4][8]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on high-growth sectors such as reliability and environmental testing, integrated circuits, and data science analysis, positioning itself as a leader in these fields [8]. - The management reform and shift towards a profit-centered strategy are expected to enhance profitability, with profit growth anticipated to outpace revenue growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the hereditary angioedema (HAE) treatment sector, particularly following the approval of the first oral on-demand treatment, sebetralstat [14][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights the urgent need for effective HAE treatments due to the high risk of life-threatening episodes, with nearly half of HAE patients facing potential asphyxiation [10][16]. - Sebetralstat, approved by the FDA, is noted for its rapid onset of action, achieving near-complete inhibition of plasma kallikrein within 15 minutes of administration [21]. - The KONFIDENT trial results demonstrate that sebetralstat significantly reduces symptom relief time compared to placebo, with median relief times of 1.61 hours for the 300 mg dose and 1.79 hours for the 600 mg dose [20][21]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HAE Overview - HAE is characterized by recurrent episodes of angioedema without urticaria, with a prevalence of approximately 1.5 per 100,000 individuals [7]. - The disease can lead to severe complications, including laryngeal edema, which has a mortality rate of up to 40% among patients [7][10]. Section 2: Current Treatment Landscape - Existing treatments include long-term preventive therapies (LTP) and on-demand treatments for acute episodes [10][11]. - The global HAE drug market reached $2.9 billion in 2022, with $2 billion attributed to long-term prevention and $900 million to acute on-demand treatments [13]. Section 3: Sebetralstat Approval and Efficacy - Sebetralstat is the first oral on-demand treatment for HAE, approved on July 7, 2025, and is expected to address unmet needs in the treatment landscape [21]. - The KONFIDENT trial, involving 136 patients across 20 countries, confirmed the efficacy and safety of sebetralstat, showing significant improvements in symptom relief and severity reduction compared to placebo [21]. Section 4: Future Developments - Pharvaris is developing deucrictibant, a competitive oral antagonist for HAE, with promising Phase II trial results indicating effective management of HAE attacks [26]. - The report anticipates further advancements in HAE treatments, with ongoing clinical trials expected to yield additional data in the coming years [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [1]. Core Insights - The automotive market is expected to continue strong sales in the second half of the year, supported by a reduction in inventory and a decrease in price war risks. However, there are concerns regarding sales fluctuations due to potential electric vehicle subsidies next year, which may suppress market sentiment [1]. - The report suggests actively observing opportunities in the sector after market sentiment stabilizes, particularly in the context of the recent strong performance of Hong Kong stocks [1]. Data Tracking - In June, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 382,585 units (up 12% year-on-year), while Li Auto and Xpeng saw deliveries of 36,279 units (down 24.1% year-on-year) and 34,611 units (up 224.4% year-on-year), respectively [4][21]. - Traditional automakers also reported strong sales, with Geely's sales reaching 236,000 units (up 42.1% year-on-year) and SAIC Motor leading with 365,000 units (up 21.6% year-on-year) [4][23]. Industry Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends Jianghuai Automobile, highlighting potential for growth in both volume and profitability in the second half of the year. It also suggests monitoring new models from Li Auto and Baic Blue Valley, as well as the accelerated delivery of Xiaomi's YU7 [6]. - In the parts sector, the report advises a selective approach to stock picking, focusing on companies with lower valuations (below 15 times) and expected growth rates above 15% for the next year. Recommended stocks include Xingyu Co. and Aikodi [6]. - The heavy truck segment is expected to maintain strong growth, with policy support driving demand. Recommendations include Heavy Truck A and Weichai H/A [6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 0.56% this week, ranking 29th out of 29 sectors. In contrast, the overall market indices showed positive growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.09% and the ChiNext Index up 2.36% [9][33].