证 券 研 究 报 告 凌云股份（600480）深度研究报告 强推（首次） 热成型、电池盒双轮驱动，传感器加速布局 目标价：14.9 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 18,837 | 19,728 | 20,890 | 21,879 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 655 | 806 | 933 | 1,020 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.8% | 22.9% | 15.8% | 9.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.54 | 0.66 | 0.76 | 0.83 | | 市盈率(倍) | 22 | 18 | 15 | 14 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 7 月 11 日收盘价 公司研究 汽车零部件Ⅲ 2025 年 07 月 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Report's Core View - The scope of domestic investors in the Bond "Southbound Connect" may be expanded to four types of non - banking institutions, namely securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and wealth management institutions. The annual quota may be increased from RMB 50 billion to RMB 100 billion. This improvement in the mechanism helps investors have more asset investment options and alleviates the asset shortage to some extent [1][5][8]. - Based on the understanding of enterprise fundamentals by domestic investors, they can actively focus on the investment opportunities of overseas bonds of domestic enterprises traded in the Hong Kong market. It is recommended to pay attention to urban investment dim - sum bonds and investment opportunities in various industries of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds [5][32]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Bond "Southbound Connect" Overview: Definition, Existing Institutional Arrangements, Investment Entities, and Quota Usage - **Definition**: It refers to the mechanism arrangement where domestic investors invest in bonds traded and circulated in the Hong Kong bond market through the interconnection of relevant basic service institutions in the Mainland and Hong Kong in bond trading, custody, and settlement [2][8]. - **Institutional Arrangements**: - **Target Bonds**: All bond types issued overseas and traded in the Hong Kong bond market [2][9][16]. - **Domestic Investor Scope**: Currently, it is tentatively limited to some primary dealers in the open - market operations recognized by the People's Bank of China. Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) and Renminbi Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (RQDII) can also conduct overseas bond investments through the "Southbound Connect" [2][9][18]. - **Trading Currency**: Domestic investors can use RMB or foreign exchange. The funds can only be used for bond investment. When using RMB to invest in foreign - currency bonds, investors can handle foreign - exchange conversion and hedging in the inter - bank foreign - exchange market. After the bonds mature or are sold, if investors do not continue to invest, the funds should be remitted back to the Mainland and converted back to RMB. Illegal currency arbitrage through the "Southbound Connect" is prohibited [15][18]. - **Quota Limit**: The upper limit of the net cross - border capital outflow of the "Southbound Connect" does not exceed the annual quota and the daily quota. Currently, the annual quota is RMB 50 billion equivalent, and the daily quota is RMB 20 billion equivalent. The net cross - border capital outflow of QDII and RQDII participating in the "Southbound Connect" is not included in the quota statistics [3][15][18]. - **Investment Entities**: - **Primary Dealers in Open - Market Operations**: 41 bank - type financial institutions in the 2020 annual open - market operations of the People's Bank of China [9][10]. - **QDII**: As of the end of June 2025, 191 institutions have obtained QDII quotas, with a total of USD 170.869 billion. The quota growth has gradually slowed down [13]. - **RQDII**: They can independently decide to conduct securities investment overseas without quota restrictions [14]. - **Quota Usage**: As of the end of May 2025, Shanghai Clearing House held 918 "Southbound Connect" bonds through the financial infrastructure interconnection model, with a total balance of RMB 532.94 billion, a year - on - year increase of 21% [3][18] II. Analysis of the Current Situation of the Overseas Bond Market: Dim - Sum Bonds and Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds (1) Dim - Sum Bonds - As of July 9, 2025, there were 1,734 outstanding dim - sum bonds with a total balance of RMB 1,419.7 billion. Financial bonds accounted for 47% (RMB 663.2 billion), followed by urban investment bonds and government bonds, accounting for 24% and 18% respectively [4][22]. - The issuing entities of outstanding dim - sum bonds are mainly of medium - to - high grades. Over 80% have a remaining term of less than 3 years. Among them, about 45% of the issuing entities have no relevant ratings, and among those with ratings, AAA and AA+ entities account for 37% and 12% respectively. In terms of remaining terms, those within 1 year and 1 - 3 years account for 40% and 42% respectively [25]. (2) Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds - As of July 9, 2025, there were 2,227 outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with a total balance of approximately USD 72.5 billion. Industrial bonds and financial bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion, 38% and 31% respectively, followed by real - estate bonds (17%) and urban investment bonds (10%) [4][28]. - The issuing entities of outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds are mainly of high grades, and about 61% have a remaining term of less than 3 years. About 38% of the issuing entities have no relevant ratings, and among those with ratings, AAA entities account for about 50%. In terms of remaining terms, those within 1 year and 1 - 3 years account for 25% and 36% respectively [32]. III. Focus on Investment Opportunities in Overseas Bonds under the Expansion of the Bond "Southbound Connect" - **Investment Opportunities in the Primary Market**: Chinese - funded overseas bonds have relatively high coupon yields. The coupon yields of urban investment bonds in outstanding dim - sum bonds are generally 100 - 300 BP higher than those of domestic bonds, and the coupon yields of various industries of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds are generally 50 - 300 BP higher than those of domestic bonds [5][33]. - **Investment Opportunities in the Secondary Market**: Chinese - funded overseas bonds have obvious excess spreads compared with domestic bonds. The spreads of dim - sum bonds are mostly within 100 BP, and those of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds are mostly above 200 BP [5][36]. - **Specific Investment Recommendations**: - **Urban Investment Overseas Bonds**: There have been no substantial default cases of domestic and overseas bonds of urban investment entities in China. It is recommended to choose bonds with a term of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a bond balance of over RMB 300 million or USD 300 million. There are 68 eligible urban investment dim - sum bonds with a total balance of RMB 53.8 billion and 75 US dollar bonds with a total balance of USD 28.2 billion [38]. - **Industrial US Dollar Bonds**: Focus on central and state - owned enterprise bonds, pay attention to the allocation opportunities of US dollar bonds in industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and public utilities, and avoid weak - quality private enterprise bonds. It is recommended to choose central and state - owned enterprise US dollar bonds with a term of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, a bond balance of over USD 300 million, and in industries such as transportation, public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals. There are 39 such bonds with a total balance of USD 26.8 billion [39]. - **Financial US Dollar Bonds**: The issuing entities are mostly state - owned financial institutions, and the bonds are relatively safe and liquid. It is recommended to choose financial US dollar bonds with a term of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a bond balance of over USD 300 million. There are 86 such bonds with a total balance of USD 54.2 billion [40].

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业车企车系跟踪报告 4-5 月自主份额升 6PP 至 70%，高端品牌提升显著 作为汽车销量结构报告系列之一，我们季度更新车企车系销量数据，以把握自 主车企及相关零部件在国内销售、出货份额、速度、空间的变化。 2025 年部分主流车型价格继续下移，因此我们从 2025 年 1 月起调整变化较大 车型的价格带分类，价格带数据同比会因此产生较大波动，我们建议将两个价 格带结合分析以减少数据口径变化的影响。 按 0-15 万元合并看，4-5M25 自主占比 79%、同比+1.4PP、环比-0.7PP， 自主份额增长稳定。 2) 10-15 万元：自主份额升 2.0%至 73%，日系德系受冲击影响最大。1-5M25 行业合计销量 370 万辆/+29%，自主占 72%/+3.4PP、日系 14%/-2.1PP、 德系 9.9%/-1.7PP、美系 2.3%/+1.3PP、其他 2.0%/-0.8PP。4-5 月自主份额 73%、同比+2.0PP、环比-0.7PP，自主增长主要受秦 L、小鹏 MONA03 等 车型放量及海豹等车型价格带下调影响。 按 10-20 万元合并看，4-5M25 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 28 期 WEI 指数上行至 7%左右 ❖ 一、景气向上： 1）华创宏观 WEI 指数：上行至 7%以上。截至 7 月 6 日，该指数为 7.08%， 较 6 月 29 日（6%）上行 1.08%。4 月以来，该指数上行的主要驱动是沥青开 工率和乘用车批零。 2）服务消费：国内航班略有回升。7 月前 5 日，国内航班执行数为 1.44 万架 次，同比+3%。6 月为 1.28 万架次，同比+0.8%。 3）基建：石油沥青装置开工率上行。截至 7 月 9 日当周，石油沥青装置开工 率为 32.7%，同比+4.7%，环比前一周+1%；6 月前四周平均为 31.2%。 4）物价："反内卷"带动资源品价格续涨。山西产动力末煤(Q5500)秦皇岛港 平仓价、京唐港山西主焦煤库提价、螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿石价格指 数:62%Fe:CFR 中国北方、南华玻璃指数分别上涨 1.4%、9.8%、1.9%、3.0%、 5.8%。 5）外贸：我国港口吞吐量反弹。7 月 6 日当周，我国港口集装箱吞吐量四周 累计同比升至 4.5%，上周为 3.1%。 ❖ 二、景气向下： 1）耐用 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 近期就业政策的四点观察 核心观点 本文关注近期的就业政策，关注四个方面：1）以工代赈政策，中央力度明显 加大，2025 年截至 6 月已下达以工代赈中央投资 295 亿元，2024 年为 115 亿 元、2020 年为 56 亿元；2）失业保险稳岗返还比例提升，大企业的返还上限 从 30%提升至 50%，中小微企业从 60%提升至 90%，力度接近 2022 年；3） 一次性扩岗补助政策扩围，补贴对象从"企业"扩展为"企业和社会组织"； 4）社保缓缴政策重启，但细节待明确。 一、以工代赈：中央力度明显加大 1）什么是以工代赈？"指政府投资建设基础设施工程，受赈济者参加工程建 设获得劳务报酬，以此取代直接赈济的一项扶持政策"。主要面向"脱贫人口 及防返贫致贫监测对象、返乡农民工、其他农村劳动力等群体"。 2）历史上，政策如何调整？据发改委，"2006 年以来，国家发展改革委在中央 预算内投资中安排专门资金，支持各地实施以工代赈项目。'十三五'时期… 累计投入以工代赈中央资金近 300 亿元"。应对疫情冲击，以工代赈加力扩围。 一是发改委 2020 年下达以工代赈资 ...

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is expected to remain limited due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditures, with a significant reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels to $351 billion in 2021 [9][30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have exacerbated concerns over energy supply, with the EU planning to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [10][31] - Brent crude oil prices increased to $71.97 per barrel, up 2.95% week-on-week, while WTI prices rose to $67.93 per barrel, up 2.46% [11][32] Coal Industry - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) rose to 628 RMB/ton, a 1.06% increase from the previous week, driven by improved demand and trading conditions [12][13] - Coal production is gradually recovering, with total inventory at ports reported at 26.9 million tons, down 2.46% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [12][13] - The domestic coal consumption for key power plants increased to 4.88 million tons per day, a 6.09% rise from the previous week, reflecting higher electricity demand due to ongoing high temperatures [12][13] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have seen a slight increase, with the price for Shanxi main coking coal at 1,350 RMB/ton, up 9.76% week-on-week, as supply conditions improve [14][15] - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal is improving, with increased orders from steel mills and a decrease in inventory levels [14][15] Natural Gas - The EIA projects that U.S. natural gas production and consumption will reach record highs in 2025, with expected consumption of 91.4 billion cubic feet per day [16][17] - U.S. natural gas prices decreased to $3.33 per million British thermal units, down 2.9% from the previous week, while European gas prices increased [16][17] - The EU has reached an agreement on a natural gas price cap, which may lead to liquidity issues and potential supply shortages [17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery in demand due to increased capital expenditures from major oil companies, which are projected to reach 581.738 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2018 [18][19] - The number of active drilling rigs globally decreased to 1,576, with a notable decline in the Middle East and the U.S. [19]

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车海外销量点评 5 月欧洲同比持续下滑，北美同比增幅收窄 事项： 海外轻型车销量同比基本持平、环比小幅增长。5 月海外轻型车合计约 463 万 辆、同比-0.1%、环比+2.1%。具体各地区： 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 07 月 14 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 证券分析师：夏凉 电话：021-20572532 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522030001 证券分析师：李昊岚 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010003 联系人：林栖宇 邮箱：linxiyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 232 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 50,730.05 | 4.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 32,553.74 | 3.91 | 相对指数表现 | % | ...

债券研究 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（0707-0713）：1.65%附近，关注 配置价值 债券周报 2025 年 07 月 14 日 华创证券研究所 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会——信用周报 20250607》 2025-06-07 证监会审核华创证券投 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 特朗普驱逐移民的进度如何？ ——海外周报第 98 期 主要观点 关税、减税以及移民政策可称为特朗普 2.0 任期的"三板斧"，市场对关税和 减税政策更为熟悉，但对移民政策了解相对较小。本篇周报简要梳理今年以来 特朗普政府驱逐移民的进度以及美国社会对移民态度的变化。 ❖ 美国有多少非法移民？ 从两个角度估算，截至 2024 年底，美国非法移民人数约为 1280-1520 万人， 假设非法移民的劳动参与率与所有移民群体一致（2025 年上半年为 66.3%）， 则非法移民贡献了约 850-1000 万的劳动力。 ❖ 今年以来驱逐了多少非法移民？ 特朗普承诺要实施美国史上最大规模的非法移民驱逐行动，但并未设定具体 目标。并且美国移民和海关执法局（ICE）驱逐出境的人数也不会定期公开发 布。但综合现有信息来看，今年以来美国移民驱逐人数相比存量规模很少。 第一，今年 2 月至 6 月，驱逐人数不到 10 万，不到存量非法移民的 0.7-0.8%。 根据 NBC 新闻获取的 ICE 内部数据，今年 2-6 月份，月度驱逐出境人数在 1- 2 万左右，2、3、5 月的驱逐 ...

公司研究 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告。25H1 预计实现营业收入 106.3 至 108.4 亿 元，同比+35.01%至+37.68%；归母净利润 23.1 至 24.5 亿元，同比+33.48%至 +41.57%；扣非归母净利润 22.2 至 23.6 亿元，同比+30.06%至+38.26%。单 25Q2 预计实现营业收入 57.82 至 59.92 亿元，同比+31.67%至+36.46%；归母净利润 13.3 至 14.7 亿元，同比+24.68%至+37.81%；扣非归母净利润 12.61 至 14.01 亿元，同比+16.51%至+29.44%。 评论： 证 券 研 究 报 告 东鹏饮料（605499）2025 年中报预告点评 强推（维持） 旺季加大费投，新品势能强劲 目标价：304 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15839 | 20729 | 25066 | 28962 | | ...