Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the low-altitude economy sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acquisition of Dongjin Aviation Technology by Suzhou Planning, emphasizing the strategic importance of integrating ground and airspace planning capabilities to create a competitive air-ground integrated solution [3][14] - The report notes significant collaborations and orders announced by multiple eVTOL companies during the China International Import Expo, indicating a growing interest and investment in the low-altitude economy [33][40] - The report suggests that the low-altitude economy is entering a rapid development phase, with a focus on infrastructure and digitalization [22][47] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The low-altitude economy sector includes 121 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 34,574.89 billion [1] - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 16.1%, although it experienced a weekly decline of 1.4% [54][55] Acquisition Details - Suzhou Planning plans to acquire 100% of Dongjin Aviation Technology for a total transaction price of 250 million, with a share issuance price of 17.97 per share [6][8] - The acquisition aims to enhance the capabilities of both companies in low-altitude digitalization and infrastructure construction [14][21] Financial Performance - Dongjin Aviation Technology reported revenues of 37.51 million, 45.67 million, and 23.19 million for the years 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory in low-altitude infrastructure [22][23] - Despite the revenue growth, Dongjin Aviation Technology remains in a loss position, with a loss of 3.46 million in the first half of 2025 [22][24] Market Developments - The report identifies key players in the low-altitude economy, including manufacturers, supply chain participants, and digitalization firms, suggesting a comprehensive approach to investment in the sector [62][63] - The report emphasizes the importance of large-scale application scenarios and market awareness in enhancing the perception of the low-altitude economy [47][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huahai Pharmaceutical with a target price of 24.6 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's main business is under pressure, but significant progress has been made in innovative drug research and development [2][9]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.409 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 million CNY, down 63.12% year-on-year [2][9]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 1.893 billion CNY, a decline of 10.70% year-on-year, with a net loss of 29 million CNY, marking a year-on-year decline of 110.30% [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 9.547 billion CNY, 8.367 billion CNY, 9.101 billion CNY, and 10.100 billion CNY respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.9%, -12.4%, 8.8%, and 11.0% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.119 billion CNY in 2024A, 375 million CNY in 2025E, 668 million CNY in 2026E, and 810 million CNY in 2027E, reflecting growth rates of 34.7%, -66.5%, 78.1%, and 21.1% respectively [4]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 61.71%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Business Development and Innovation - The company is accelerating its transformation and upgrading efforts, with a focus on innovative drug pipelines entering a harvest period [9]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company registered 16 new domestic formulation products, received 3 ANDA approvals in the U.S., and obtained 4 clinical trial approvals for biological drugs [9]. - Key innovative drugs are progressing through critical stages, including the domestic first self-developed IL-36R monoclonal antibody HB0034, which is expected to be approved in the second quarter of next year [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, highlighting its resilience and dividend attributes [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing power supply disruptions affecting aluminum production, suggesting a focus on the sector's elasticity and dividend potential [2]. - It notes that the global economic environment is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, which may benefit sectors like real estate and photovoltaics, leading to a tight supply-demand balance for aluminum and supporting prices [6][7]. - The report also discusses the recent acquisition of exploration rights by Tongling Nonferrous Metals, which is expected to enhance the company's resource reserves and sustainability [6]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 471.046 billion yuan, representing 3.92% of the market [3]. - The sector has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 4.9% over one month, 63.7% over six months, and 56.8% over twelve months [4]. Aluminum Industry Data - Power costs account for 30%-40% of the total cost of electrolytic aluminum, and disruptions in power supply are expected to impact the stability of existing production capacities [6]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 7,000 tons week-on-week, while aluminum rod inventory increased slightly [6]. - The report indicates that the profit margins for electrolytic aluminum are expected to remain high due to strong domestic supply constraints and resilient demand [6]. Copper Industry Data - The report highlights a decrease in copper inventories, with SHFE copper inventory at 115,000 tons, down 1,105 tons week-on-week [6]. - The overall copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the performance of key companies in the sector [7]. Precious Metals Outlook - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [6]. - It recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [7].

事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 拓普集团（601689）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） Q3 业绩承压，机器人+液冷业务加速布局 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度营收 209.3 亿元、同比+8.1%，归母净利 19.7 亿元、同比-12%，扣非归母净利 18.2 亿元、同比-10%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 26,600 | 30,157 | 35,150 | 42,669 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.0% | 13.4% | 16.6% | 21.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,001 | 3,064 | 3,751 | 4,724 | | 同比增速(%) | 39.5% | 2.1% | 22.4% | 25.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.73 | 1.76 | 2.16 | 2.72 | | 市盈率(倍) | 39 | 39 | 32 | 25 | | 市净率( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of the central bank's bond purchases in October was significantly lower than market expectations. The subsequent bond - buying rhythm should be objectively evaluated, and there is still significant room for the total scale of the central bank's bond purchases compared to overseas countries. The specific scale is difficult to determine, with a monthly purchase of 200 billion yuan being a relatively fast pace [1][2][3]. - The bond market's α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. The market is currently focused on the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts. The new regulations may drive some funds with a strong preference for liquidity to redeem funds, but it is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs [4][5]. - In the interest rate bond market, the bond market was in a weak and volatile state due to the central bank's bond purchases being lower than expectations and concerns about the new fund regulations. The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed [10][11][55]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Objective View of the Scale and Rhythm of the Central Bank's Bond Purchases 3.1.1 Overseas Reference - Compared with overseas countries, the proportion of the central bank's treasury bond holdings in its total assets and the overall treasury bond market in China is relatively low. For example, in Japan, the eurozone, Canada, and the United States, the proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in total assets is over 60%, while in China, it is about 4.7%. The proportion of central bank treasury bond holdings in the total treasury bond market in Japan and the eurozone is 48% and 36% respectively, while in Canada and the United States, it is around 11.9% and 14.1%, and in China, it is about 5.7% [2][15]. - Historically, the proportion of the Federal Reserve's treasury bond holdings in the total US treasury bonds was around 9 - 10% before 2008, and it gradually compressed to around 10% near the end of each round of QT after 2008 [2][16]. 3.1.2 Scale Deduction - If the central bank's annual bond - buying increment is 1 trillion yuan, it will not be until 2030 that the proportion of bond - holding scale to the total treasury bond scale approaches the Federal Reserve's normal - state level of 10%. If the increment is expanded to 2 - 3 trillion yuan, this proportion can be reached by the end of 2026 [22]. - Currently, the central bank has a high degree of flexibility in bond - buying scale. It is difficult to directly compare with last year's level. A monthly net purchase of about 100 billion yuan is a neutral level, while a monthly net purchase of 200 billion yuan may lead to a smoother year - end market trend [25][26]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: The α - Mining Strategy Enters the Middle Stage - Since October, the bond market has continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, mainly fluctuating around 1.8%. The market is currently mainly concerned with the implementation of the new fund fee regulations and their subsequent impacts [28]. - The impact of the new fund fee regulations is relatively controllable. It is expected that the 10 - year treasury bond is unlikely to reach new highs, but the regulations may drive some funds to redeem funds, with the estimated redemption scale being around 500 billion yuan. The impact on the bond market can be referenced to the small - scale redemption tides since the second quarter of 2025 [32][33][39]. - The 10 - year treasury bond is still in a volatile market, and the α - mining strategy has entered the middle stage. For perpetual bonds and credit bonds, short - term profit - taking is advisable, and the right - side allocation opportunities should be grasped after the redemption disturbances. For interest rate bonds, different varieties have different investment strategies. For example, local bonds with a maturity of over 6 years have seen a significant decline in their variety spreads, and the medium - term spreads still have some room for compression but are approaching the central level. The purchase of treasury bonds can be carried out in a dumbbell - shaped manner [40][41][44]. 3.3 Interest Rate Bond Market Review: The Bond Market was in a Weak and Volatile State due to the Central Bank's Bond Purchases being Lower than Expectations and Concerns about the New Fund Regulations 3.3.1 Capital Market - The central bank's OMO had a large - scale net withdrawal, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The issuance price of 1 - year national and stock - holding bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the weighted price of DR007 also decreased [11]. 3.3.2 Primary Issuance - The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of policy - financial bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [61]. 3.3.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spreads of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds both narrowed. The short - end yields of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased by 2.19BP and 2.51BP respectively, and the long - end yields increased by 1.88BP and 2.35BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrowed by 0.31BP to 40.97BP, and that of policy - financial bonds narrowed by 0.16BP to 33.68BP [55].

Export Data Overview - In October, China's exports in USD terms decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 3% and down from 8.3% in September[2] - October's exports saw a month-on-month decline of 7.1%, approaching historical lows (2022's -7.7%) due to seasonal factors and a high base effect from the previous year[5] - The two-year average year-on-year growth for October was 5.5%, similar to September's 5.3%[3] Regional Analysis - Exports to the US showed marginal improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 1.8%, marking a significant recovery compared to historical lows in July and August[18] - Conversely, exports to the EU exhibited weakness, with a month-on-month decline of 8.6% in October, indicating potential risks in EU demand[18] - Exports to ASEAN countries improved slightly, with a month-on-month change of -0.7%, aligning closely with historical averages[19] Future Outlook - For Q4, the low base in November and slightly higher base in December suggest potential year-on-year growth of 1.2% for Q4, with an annual growth estimate of 4.8%[21] - The reduction of the fentanyl tariff by the US may further enhance export performance to the US, as it narrows the tax rate gap with other regions[21] - Leading indicators from G7 countries suggest a potential recovery in export growth for November and December[22] Price and Volume Dynamics - The average export price for 15 major products increased by 5.1% in October, driven by significant price rises in ships, while the export volume growth for these products fell to 5.2%[57] - The overall export price index showed a year-on-year decline of 2.5% for the first eight months of the year, lagging behind global trade price growth of 1%[31] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in October was reported at $901 billion, slightly down from $904 billion in September, indicating a narrowing trend[54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][23]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase in Q3 2025, achieving 3.387 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 86.43% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 18.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 266 million yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 33.44% [2][4]. - The company's strategic focus on a "three-in-one" model of computing power base, cloud services, and smart terminals is expected to drive future growth, supported by a robust order backlog in the intelligent computing power business [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 11.09 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 49.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.138 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 64.5% [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 2.00 yuan in 2024 to 3.29 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 85 in 2024 to 52 in 2025 [4][9]. Business Segments Overview - The intelligent computing power products and services segment generated 1.221 billion yuan in revenue in H1 2025, with a gross margin of 20.60%. The company is enhancing its R&D efforts to improve its computing service platform [8][9]. - The server and peripheral remanufacturing business saw revenue of 835 million yuan in H1 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 119.49%. The company has developed core capabilities in automated chip disassembly, leading to improved production efficiency and product quality [8][9]. Market Position and Valuation - The target price for the company's stock is set at 212.68 yuan, with the current price at 169.41 yuan, indicating a potential upside [4][5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 58.636 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 58.468 billion yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry, indicating a cautious outlook due to seasonal demand weakness and supply constraints [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry continues to experience a dual weakness in supply and demand, with average daily pig iron production from sample steel mills decreasing by 21,400 tons. The industry is entering a traditional off-season, leading to a seasonal decline in demand, with weekly consumption of major materials dropping by 494,700 tons. Profit margins for sample enterprises have fallen below 40%, indicating ongoing profit contraction and potential for increased maintenance activities among steel mills. Consequently, the supply side may see further reductions, but weak demand during the off-season is unlikely to provide effective support for steel prices in the short term [3][10]. - The steel sector index closed at 2,736.97 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.39%, outperforming the broader market index which rose by 0.63% during the same period [4][6]. - The report emphasizes a long-term positive outlook on the "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to optimize the supply structure and align it better with demand changes, potentially leading to a revaluation of industry logic and recovery in sector valuations [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of November 7, the steel industry comprises 53 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,086.616 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 971.138 billion yuan [6]. Production Data - The total production of the five major steel products reached 8,567,400 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 185,500 tons. The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2,342,200 tons, down by 21,400 tons week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 87.81%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [9][10]. Consumption Data - Weekly consumption of the five major materials totaled 8,669,300 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 494,700 tons. Specific product consumption changes included a decrease of 136,700 tons for rebar and 102,100 tons for wire rods [9][10]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory reached 15,035,700 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 101,900 tons. Social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons to 10,750,000 tons, while steel mill inventory fell by 80,900 tons to 4,285,700 tons [9][10]. Profitability - As of November 7, the gross profit margins for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled sheets, and cold-rolled sheets were -39 yuan/ton, -80 yuan/ton, and -118 yuan/ton, respectively. The profitability rate among the sample steel enterprises was 39.83%, down by 5.19 percentage points week-on-week [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the innovative drug sector, highlighting the potential for value reassessment as companies transition from generic to innovative products [45]. Core Insights - The innovative drug industry is expected to shift from quantity logic to quality logic, emphasizing the importance of differentiated products and internationalization of pipelines [10]. - The medical device market is experiencing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and is benefiting from government subsidies for home medical devices [10][50]. - The report indicates a significant decline in the retail scale of physical pharmacies, with a cumulative scale of 395.2 billion yuan from January to August 2025, down 2.2% year-on-year [16]. Market Analysis Innovative Drugs - The number of innovative products in the pipeline has increased significantly, with expectations of launching five new innovative products annually over the next three years [45]. - The revenue share from innovative products is projected to exceed 50% by 2025, indicating a successful transition to a more innovative product structure [45]. Medical Devices - The imaging equipment market is recovering, with a notable increase in procurement activities expected in late 2024 [50]. - Home medical devices are benefiting from government subsidies, which are expected to drive growth in this segment [50]. Retail Pharmacy - The retail scale of physical pharmacies has been under pressure due to policy constraints and increased competition, leading to a decline in profitability [16]. - The cumulative scale of retail pharmacies in July and August 2025 was 991 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year decline [16]. Product Categories - All product categories in the pharmacy sector showed negative growth from January to August 2025, with the largest decline seen in health products, which dropped over 17% [20]. - The pharmaceutical market saw a cumulative scale of 321.7 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with specific declines attributed to reduced demand for respiratory medications [24]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The market for traditional Chinese medicine is experiencing a decline, with a cumulative scale of 302 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year [25]. - The retail scale of traditional Chinese medicine showed signs of stabilization in August, with a slight month-on-month increase [25]. Health Products - The health product market saw a cumulative scale of 149 billion yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year, although there was a slight recovery in August [33]. Chemical Drugs - The top 20 chemical drug categories accounted for 78.0% of sales in July, with notable growth in categories such as hemostatic drugs and immunosuppressants [37][40]. - The market share for chemical drugs in August increased to 78.5%, with several categories showing positive year-on-year growth [38][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the payment pressure may increase compared to October, but with the central bank's active support, the risk of tightened funds is limited. The DR007 is expected to fluctuate between 1.4 - 1.5%. [3][4][66] - The central bank has restarted bond - buying, and considering the current operation ideas of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the funds are expected to remain stable. [4][66] 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 10 - Month Review of Fundamentals and Liquidity: Active Early - Season Investment, Stable Central Level 3.1.1 Review of Fundamentals: Narrow - Range Fluctuation of Funds - In October 2025, the overnight fund fluctuation range narrowed compared to the previous month, with the overnight fund fluctuating around 1.31% at the beginning of the month and reaching a maximum of 1.47% in the late month. The 7D fund fluctuation range widened, fluctuating around 1.43% from the beginning to the middle of the month and reaching a maximum of 1.58% at the end of the month. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds this month. [10][11] - At the beginning of the month, the central bank conducted a 3M repurchase reverse repurchase of 1.1 trillion yuan to ease the pressure of large - scale reverse repurchase maturities. In the middle of the month, with limited payment pressure, the central bank continued to support, and the fund prices remained stable. At the end of the month, affected by the tax period and other factors, the funds faced pressure, but the MLF actively operated and bond - buying was restarted, and the liquidity gradually stabilized. [11] - In terms of fund stratification, the stratification pressure widened and then slightly narrowed in October, and the spread was at a seasonal low. In terms of fund volatility, the volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonal low. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase in October increased slightly compared to the previous month, with a monthly total of around 131 trillion yuan. [16][19][20] - In terms of lending behavior, the net lending scale of state - owned banks first increased and then decreased, the net lending of joint - stock banks was at a seasonal low, and the net lending of money market funds fluctuated greatly. [23] 3.1.2 Review of Liquidity: Low Gap Pressure in October, Active Central Bank Investment - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In October, the base money decreased by about 1.1 trillion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve release and cash withdrawal, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 90 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.4%, and the narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchase was about 0.66%, showing obvious improvement. [2][31] - **Open - Market Operations**: In October, the central bank's open - market operations recovered steadily. The reverse repurchase was net - recovered by 59.53 billion yuan, the MLF was net - invested by 20 billion yuan, the pledged reverse repurchase was net - invested by 40 billion yuan, and the central bank net - bought 2 billion yuan of national bonds at the end of the month. The 1 - month treasury deposit was 12 billion yuan, and 15 billion yuan matured. [36][38][40] 3.2 October Monetary Policy Tracking: Resumption of National Bond Trading, Construction of a Comprehensive Macro - Prudential Management System - In October 2025, the central bank announced the resumption of open - market national bond trading and the construction of a scientific and stable monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro - prudential management system. The central bank affirmed the reasonable operating range of the bond market at 1.75 - 1.85% and emphasized the improvement of the macro - prudential management system and the prevention and disposal mechanism of systematic financial risks. [2][43] - The central bank's monetary policy actions in October included: learning the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee to build a scientific and stable monetary policy system; reporting on the financial work situation and affirming the operating range of the 10 - year national bond; announcing the resumption of open - market national bond trading at the Financial Street Forum; and emphasizing the improvement of the macro - prudential management system on multiple occasions. [48][49][50] 3.3 November Gap Forecast: Restart of Bond - Buying, Continued Loose Trend 3.3.1 Rigid Gap: Small Consumption of Excess Reserves by Reserve Requirements, Large Maturity of MLF - In November, the increase in general deposits may consume about 12 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF matures at 90 billion yuan, and the pledged reverse repurchase matures at 1 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 30 billion yuan for 6M), with the 3M term renewed for 70 billion yuan on November 5th. [55] 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks: Cash Withdrawal and Non - Financial Institution Deposits Consume Liquidity at the End of the Year - In November, cash withdrawal may consume about 15 billion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 3 billion yuan of excess reserves. [60] 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors: Accelerated Year - End Expenditure, Possible Decrease in Government Deposits - In November, considering factors such as tax payments, government bond issuance, and fiscal expenditures, government deposits may release about 13 billion yuan of liquidity. [61] 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment: Central Bank Restarts Bond - Buying, Funds in November May Remain Stable - In November, the monthly liquidity gap may be around 2 trillion yuan, and the overall fund gap pressure may be at a seasonal high. However, with the central bank's bond - buying restart and the maintenance of sufficient liquidity, the DR007 is expected to fluctuate between 1.4 - 1.5%. [3][66] - The central bank may use national bond trading to partially replace MLF and pledged reverse repurchase. The central bank's current bond - holding ratio in the national bond market is about 6%, and there is still room for further bond - buying. Attention should be paid to the scale and rhythm of bond - buying. [4][70]