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转债月报:中报平稳落地,月底转债资金面变化较大-20250902
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 10:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term report landed smoothly, with the median revenue and net profit attributable to the parent of convertible bond underlying stocks in the 2025 mid - term report growing by 4.56% and 0.31% respectively, continuing the repair trend of Q1. The performance of medium - cap underlying stocks represented by CSI 500 was the best, while small and micro - cap stocks showed an obvious situation of increasing revenue but not profit. After the mid - term report disclosure at the end of August, small and micro - cap stocks may have relative repair opportunities. The technology growth sector with TMT as the mainstay has entered the performance realization period, and its performance after September is worth focusing on [1][10][12]. - Recently, the net redemption pressure of convertible bonds has increased. From the end of June to the end of August, public funds and securities asset management increased their holdings of convertible bonds, while most other institutions reduced their holdings. The net subscription of secondary bond funds reversed at the end of August, which put pressure on the convertible bond market valuation in the short term. However, in the expectation of a positive equity market, short - term capital disturbances may provide trading opportunities [2][21][27]. - After the decline at the end of the month, the cost - performance of convertible bonds has significantly increased. Although the convertible bond market meets the pre - conditions for continuous valuation compression, the upward trend of the equity market has not been broken, and the convertible bond premium rate has quickly returned to a relatively reasonable range of 26 - 30%. The convertible bond valuation is expected to continue to fluctuate in the medium and short term [4][28]. - In August, the convertible bond market and underlying stocks rose slightly, and the valuation increased significantly. The trading volume of the convertible bond and equity markets continued to grow, and margin trading funds strengthened rapidly. The new bond supply decreased seasonally, but the pace of new bond issuance plans accelerated [51][60][63]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Mid - term Report Landed Smoothly, and the Capital Situation Changed Significantly at the End of August 3.1.1 Mid - term Report Landed Smoothly, and Technology Growth Performance Accelerated Realization - In the 2025 mid - term report, the median revenue and net profit attributable to the parent of convertible bond underlying stocks were 4.56% and 0.31% respectively, continuing the repair trend of Q1. About 62% of the underlying stocks achieved year - on - year revenue growth, and more than half achieved positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent, providing a performance basis for the healthy operation of the market after September [10]. - The performance of medium - cap underlying stocks represented by CSI 500 was the best, with the median year - on - year revenue and net profit attributable to the parent being 4.87% and 5.22% respectively. Small and micro - cap stocks, especially those in the CSI 2000, showed an obvious situation of increasing revenue but not profit, with the median net profit attributable to the parent growth rate being - 8.89%. After the mid - term report disclosure at the end of August, small and micro - cap stocks may have relative repair opportunities [12]. - Except for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and non - bank finance, the industries with the top median net profit attributable to the parent growth rate of convertible bond underlying stocks this year include media, electronics, communication, and computer. The technology growth sector with TMT as the mainstay has entered the performance realization period, and its performance after September is worth focusing on [13][18]. 3.1.2 Recently, the Net Redemption Pressure of Convertible Bonds Increased, and Attention Should be Paid to the Capital Situation - Except for public funds, most mainstream institutions reduced their holdings of convertible bonds. From the end of June to the end of August, public funds increased their holdings of convertible bonds by about 20.83 billion yuan in face value, and securities asset management increased by about 3.518 billion yuan. Other institutions such as insurance, enterprise annuities, securities self - operation, private funds, individual investors, and QFII/RQFII all reduced their holdings [21]. - From July 1 to August 29, the total share of convertible bond ETFs increased from 3.503 billion shares to 5.683 billion shares. The net redemption of first - level bond funds was obvious in August and accelerated at the end of August. The secondary bond funds had continuous large - scale net subscriptions from July to August, but there was an obvious reversal of net redemptions from August 29 to September 1 [21]. - Brokers and wealth management subsidiaries were the main net redeemers. In first - level bond funds, brokers mainly redeemed in August, and wealth management subsidiaries accelerated redemptions at the end of August. In secondary bond funds, brokers and wealth management subsidiaries also showed obvious net redemptions at the end of August [25]. 3.2 Valuation Outlook: After the Decline at the End of the Month, the Cost - performance Significantly Increased - In August, the convertible bond market valuation was at a high level. Although it met the pre - conditions for continuous valuation compression, the upward trend of the equity market was not broken. The rapid adjustment at the end of August made the convertible bond premium rate quickly return to a relatively reasonable range of 26 - 30%. The convertible bond valuation is expected to continue to fluctuate in the medium and short term [28]. - As of August 29, 2025, the convertible bond premium rate was 27.92%, up 1.10 pct from the end of July. The valuation of growth - oriented convertible bonds continued to rise, while that of bond - oriented and balanced convertible bonds decreased. Most industries' convertible bond premium rates decreased, and the manufacturing and technology sectors decreased the most [30][34]. 3.3 Key Convertible Bonds to Focus On - From August 5 to August 29, the convertible bond portfolio in August rose by 3.47%, outperforming the benchmark index by 0.27 pct. Huayi, Mingli, and Zhanggu in the recommended portfolio had relatively high increases, while only Xingqiu had a relatively large decline [41]. - Looking forward to September, the equity market may continue the rapid rotation market. The "Huachuang Convertible Bond" September key - focus portfolio was adjusted to include Xingqiu, Mingli, Nuitai, Zhanggu, Huayi, Taifu, Yifeng, Ziyin, Qingnong, Chongyin, and Xingye [44]. 3.4 Market Review: Convertible Bonds and Underlying Stocks Rose Slightly, and the Valuation Increased Significantly 3.4.1 Market Performance: Most Convertible Bond Sectors Rose, and Technology - related Concepts Heated Up Significantly - In August, most underlying stock sectors and convertible bond sectors rose. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors led the gains, and only the banking sector declined. In the convertible bond market, non - ferrous metals, communication, machinery, equipment, automobile, and electrical equipment sectors led the gains, and only the banking and building decoration sectors declined [54]. - Among the popular concepts, optical communication, server, optical chip, and other concepts led the gains, while weight - loss drugs, water conservancy and hydropower construction, and other concepts declined [56]. 3.4.2 Capital Performance: The Trading Volume of Convertible Bond and Equity Markets Continued to Grow - From August 1 to August 29, 2025, the average daily trading volume of CSI convertible bonds was 92.286 billion yuan, up 26.61% from July. The average daily trading volume of Wind All - A was 2.307831 trillion yuan, up 41.27% from July [60]. - Margin trading funds strengthened rapidly. As of August 28, 2025, the total margin trading balance in Shanghai and Shenzhen was about 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 258.046 billion yuan from the end of July. Most industries received net margin purchases in August, and only coal was net sold [63]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation: New Bond Supply Decreased Seasonally, and the Pace of New Bond Issuance Plans Accelerated 3.5.1 Four Convertible Bonds Were Issued in August, and Weidao Convertible Bond Was Listed - In August, the issuance of new convertible bonds decreased seasonally. Four convertible bonds, Shenglan Zhuan 02, Jinwei, Kaizhong, and Weidao, were issued, with a total scale of 3.221 billion yuan. Weidao Convertible Bond was listed, with a scale of 1.17 billion yuan [65]. - The online subscription for new convertible bonds heated up in August, with the average effective subscription amount being 8.65 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase. The total effective subscription was 34.60 trillion yuan, and the online winning rate was 0.0014%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0082 pct [70][74]. - As of August 29, 2025, the total scale of convertible bonds to be issued was about 105.785 billion yuan. Two listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 3 billion yuan. Four listed companies' convertible bond issuances had passed the review meeting, with a total scale of 7.429 billion yuan. In August, 15 new board proposals were added, with a total scale of 23.66 billion yuan [76]. - In September 2025, 19 convertible bonds will be delisted, all due to forced redemptions. In addition, Huayou, Honghui, Yonghe, and Dayuan convertible bonds announced redemptions but have not announced delisting arrangements [80]. - Four convertible bonds announced downward revisions, and four proposed downward revisions. Twenty - four convertible bonds announced early redemptions, and many others announced non - early redemptions or were expected to meet redemption conditions [83][88]. 3.5.2 In August, the Holders in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Slightly Reduced Their Holdings as a Whole, and Public Funds Were Active - In August, the total face value of convertible bonds held by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges was 632.773 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.081 billion yuan from July, a decline of 2.33%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange held 391.832 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.474 billion yuan, a decline of 1.87%. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange held 240.941 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.607 billion yuan, a decline of 3.06% [92]. - Public funds increased their holdings of convertible bonds in both exchanges. In August, the total face value of convertible bonds held by public funds in the two exchanges was 237.728 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 5.77%, accounting for 37.57%, a month - on - month increase of 2.88 pct [97]. - Enterprise annuities reduced their holdings of convertible bonds in both exchanges. In August, the total face value of convertible bonds held by enterprise annuities in the two exchanges was 100.728 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31%, accounting for 15.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 pct [98]. - Securities asset management reduced their holdings of convertible bonds in both exchanges. In the Shanghai Stock Exchange, securities self - operation and asset management had different changes in holdings and proportions. In the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, securities self - operation and collective financial management also had different changes [100].
中科创达(300496):物联网实现高速增长,端侧AI持续放量
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 10:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 95.04 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 37.44% year-on-year, reaching 3.299 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 158 million CNY, up 51.84% year-on-year [2]. - The smart IoT business has become the core growth engine, achieving a revenue of 1.27 billion CNY, a substantial increase of 136.14% year-on-year, driven by continuous development in the AIoT sector [8]. - The company has maintained high R&D investment, amounting to 846 million CNY in the first half of 2025, representing 25.64% of its revenue, supporting product innovation under its core strategy of "Operating System + Edge Intelligence" [8]. - The release of the AI-native vehicle operating system, Drip OS 1.0 Evo, marks a significant advancement in the company's automotive strategy, integrating AI capabilities for enhanced performance [8]. - The company expects revenues of 7.231 billion CNY, 8.873 billion CNY, and 10.581 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 34.3%, 22.7%, and 19.2% [8]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 5.385 billion CNY in 2024A, with projected revenues of 7.231 billion CNY in 2025E, 8.873 billion CNY in 2026E, and 10.581 billion CNY in 2027E [4]. - The net profit for 2024A is projected at 407 million CNY, with expected growth to 501 million CNY in 2025E, 608 million CNY in 2026E, and 732 million CNY in 2027E [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.89 CNY in 2024A to 1.09 CNY in 2025E, 1.32 CNY in 2026E, and 1.59 CNY in 2027E [4].
浙江鼎力(603338):2025年半年报点评:业绩符合预期,海外多点开花
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 10:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][16]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with significant growth in overseas markets, particularly in non-American regions [2][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the aerial work platform industry, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market reach, especially in high-end markets [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's proactive measures in response to challenges posed by trade tensions and domestic market pressures, leading to a robust performance [7][8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 91.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.6%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 120.76 billion yuan, growing at 15.3% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 21.0 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 28.8%, and is expected to reach 28.1 billion yuan by 2027 [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.14 yuan in 2025, increasing to 5.54 yuan by 2027 [3][8]. Market Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 43.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a 12.4% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 10.5 billion yuan, up 27.6% [7][8]. - The overseas market contributed significantly, with revenue from non-European and American markets reaching 33.7 billion yuan, a 21.25% increase year-on-year, accounting for 77.8% of total revenue [7][8]. Product Development - The company has launched several innovative aerial work robots and diversified its product line to address customer needs effectively [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to electric product offerings and the introduction of a service to convert diesel products to electric, enhancing its competitive edge [7][8].
华润置地(01109):2025年半年报点评:经常性业务稳增,开发销售业务毛利率修复
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 10:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Resources Land (01109.HK) with a target price of HKD 38.8 [2][8] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of HKD 949.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 118.8 billion, up 16.2% year-on-year [2][8] - The core net profit contribution from recurring business is 60.2%, with a gross margin recovery in the development and sales business [8] - The company actively acquired land, maintaining a strong investment intensity, ranking among the top three in the industry [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 278.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6%. However, a slight decline is expected in 2025 with a revenue forecast of HKD 277.8 billion, reflecting a decrease of 0.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease to HKD 24.4 billion in 2025, down 4.7% from 2024 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at HKD 3.42, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.4 [4][8] Business Segment Analysis - The development and sales business accounted for 78% of total revenue, with a settlement income of HKD 743.6 billion, up 25.8% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.6%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points [8] - The recurring business generated revenue of HKD 205.6 billion, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, contributing 60.2% to the core net profit [8] - The shopping center segment showed stable growth, with retail sales reaching HKD 1,101.5 billion, a 20.2% increase year-on-year, and an operating profit margin of 65.9% [8] Investment Strategy - The company focuses on high-energy cities for land acquisition, with a projected increase in shopping center rental income to HKD 270 billion by 2028 [8] - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 to HKD 3.42, HKD 3.72, and HKD 3.89 respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on commercial operations [8]
一线城市楼市政策再宽松,新房成交低位波动
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 10:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the real estate sector, highlighting a policy easing in first-tier cities and low fluctuations in new home transactions [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the new home transaction volume remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 16% in the 35th week, while second-hand home transactions have increased by 13% [30][31]. - It notes that effective policies are crucial for market stability, particularly through broad fiscal measures and urban village renovations [38]. Industry Overview - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.62 billion [3]. - The sector's absolute performance over the last 12 months is reported at 32.1%, while its relative performance is down by 4.1% [4]. Policy Developments - Recent policy changes include increased housing provident fund loan limits in Shanghai, aimed at supporting homebuyers [19][20]. - Nanyang has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, including 20 initiatives to lower purchasing costs and support financing [22]. Sales Performance - In the 35th week, the total transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 204 million square meters, with a daily average of 29.2 million square meters, reflecting a 38% increase from the previous week but a 16% decrease year-on-year [25][29]. - The report indicates that first-tier cities experienced a significant year-on-year decline in new home transactions, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing decreases of 39% and 31%, respectively [27]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments reported a total revenue of 116.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.08%, while China Jinmao's revenue increased by 13.34% to 25.11 billion [23][24]. - China Overseas Development reported a revenue of 83.22 billion, down 4.55% year-on-year, while China Resources Land's revenue grew by 19.39% to 94.92 billion [24][23]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product moats and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate [38]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring second-hand home prices as indicators for market recovery, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies like Greentown China and China Resources Land [38].
芯源微(688037):收入保持稳健,化学清洗、临时键合机放量
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 10:13
公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 芯源微(688037)2025 年半年报点评 强推(维持) 收入保持稳健,化学清洗&临时键合机放量 目标价:150.2 元 事项: 评论: [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,754 | 2,046 | 2,748 | 3,598 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.1% | 16.7% | 34.3% | 30.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 203 | 245 | 419 | 603 | | 同比增速(%) | -19.1% | 21.0% | 70.6% | 44.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.01 | 1.22 | 2.08 | 2.99 | | 市盈率(倍) | 123 | 102 | 60 | 41 | | 市净率(倍) | 9.3 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 资料来源:公司公告,华创证券预测 注:股价为 2025 年 9 月 1 日收盘价 半导体设备 ...
光伏行业2025年半年报总结:行业基本面筑底,盈利修复可期
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 09:15
推荐(维持) 证 券 研 究 报 告 光伏行业 2025 年半年报总结 行业基本面筑底,盈利修复可期 行业研究 太阳能 2025 年 09 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张一弛 邮箱:zhangyichi@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360525080005 证券分析师:盛炜 邮箱:shengwei@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360522100003 证券分析师:蒋雨凯 邮箱:jiangyukai@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360525080003 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 37 | 0.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 10,722.06 | 0.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 9,712.02 | 1.03 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 13.4% | 10.8% | 21.4% | | 相对表现 | 1.8% | -5.5% | -14.8% | -8% 10% 27% 45% 24/09 ...
比亚迪(002594):2025年中报点评:毛利率承压,静待智能化与出海成长突围
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 08:48
证 券 研 究 报 告 乘用车Ⅲ 2025 年 09 月 02 日 比亚迪(002594)2025 年中报点评 强推(维持) 毛利率承压,静待智能化与出海成长突围 目标价:130.6 元、142.7 港元 事项: 评论: [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 777,102 | 925,528 | 1,082,215 | 1,237,583 | | 同比增速(%) | 29.0% | 19.1% | 16.9% | 14.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 40,254 | 42,595 | 51,417 | 63,246 | | 同比增速(%) | 34.0% | 5.8% | 20.7% | 23.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.42 | 4.67 | 5.64 | 6.94 | | 市盈率(倍) | 25 | 23 | 19 | 16 | | 市净率(倍) | 5.4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 资料 ...
上汽集团(600104):2025年中报点评:2Q25业绩表现稳健,尚界H5上市在即
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 08:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 299.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The second quarter of 2025 showed a robust performance with sales reaching 1.11 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17% [8]. - The company is optimistic about the upcoming launch of the 尚界 H5 model, which has already received a positive market response with over 50,000 pre-orders within 18 hours of its announcement [8]. - The company is undergoing a transformation with a focus on both fuel and new energy vehicles, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [8]. Financial Summary - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards to 665.1 billion yuan, 761.0 billion yuan, and 818.5 billion yuan respectively [8]. - The net profit forecast for the same period has also been revised to 14.3 billion yuan, 17.3 billion yuan, and 20.0 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant growth potential [8]. - The company is expected to achieve a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4 times in 2025, with a target price set at 24.84 yuan, representing a potential upside of 30% [8].
北方华创(002371):业绩保持稳健增长,产品平台化进程顺利
Huachuang Securities· 2025-09-02 08:12
证 券 研 究 报 告 北方华创(002371)2025 年半年报点评 强推(维持) 业绩保持稳健增长,产品平台化进程顺利 事项: 评论: [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 29,838 | 39,509 | 50,146 | 60,221 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.1% | 32.4% | 26.9% | 20.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,621 | 7,349 | 9,613 | 12,108 | | 同比增速(%) | 44.2% | 30.7% | 30.8% | 26.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 7.79 | 10.18 | 13.32 | 16.78 | | 市盈率(倍) | 49 | 37 | 28 | 23 | | 市净率(倍) | 8.8 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 资料来源:公司公告,华创证券预测 注:股价为 2025 年 9 月 1 日收盘价 公司研究 半导体设 ...