行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 从重仓看四类长钱风格（25Q3） 险资持续买入银行，社保增持房地产、基础 推荐（维持） 化工等 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：陈海椰 | 证券分析师：徐康 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com | 电话：021-20572556 | | 执业编号：S0360525070004 | 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com | | | 执业编号：S0360518060005 | 我们从上市公司前十大股东名单中筛选出险资、社保基金、基本养老金、企业年金 四类持股主体，分析四类长钱季度间风格变化。其中，险资剔除中国人寿集团持有国寿 股份，中国平安持有平安银行及员工长期计划。 根据业绩期披露时间节点，我们将形成每年三次的长钱重仓风格分析报告（如 24&25Q1，25Q2，25Q3），历史系统性梳理见此前外发报告《从重仓看中长期资金入市》。 评论： 一、险资重仓：增持银行、钢铁，减持电力设备、有色金属 险资 25H1 保持高增趋势，持续增配股票和债券，股票与基金合计占比 13.6%。截至 2025H1，保险行业资金运用余额达到 36.23 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy, with a target price of 26.85 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - Baofeng Energy's performance exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 35.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.43%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 8.950 billion yuan, up 97.27% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights the cost advantages of the Inner Mongolia base, which are gradually being realized, contributing to the company's strong financial performance [2][8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in coal chemical industry, with significant potential from its Xinjiang project expected to contribute approximately 12 billion yuan in net profit upon completion [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Baofeng Energy achieved a revenue of 35.545 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.43% and 97.27% respectively [2][4]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company reported revenue of 12.725 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.49%, and a net profit of 3.232 billion yuan, up 162.34% year-on-year [2][4]. - The projected financial indicators for 2024 to 2027 show a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 44.896 billion yuan in 2025, and net profit projected at 11.746 billion yuan [4][9]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the price differentials for olefins may narrow in the short term due to high coal prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive as energy prices are expected to stabilize [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing development of its Xinjiang coal chemical projects, which are gaining importance in the context of energy security [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance is currently under pressure due to new product investments, but there are expectations for future profitability recovery [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 600 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 3.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million yuan, down 45.1% year-over-year [6]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and impacts from trade disputes affecting export performance [6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 12.7%, down 2.5 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to significant mold investments for new products and lower margins from new environmental appliances [6]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 3.1%, down 2.3 percentage points year-over-year, influenced by increased overall expense ratios due to new product investments [6]. - The company is actively developing new products, including coffee machines and AI vacuum cleaners, which are expected to enhance revenue and profit levels in the future [6]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 22.4 yuan, with the current price at 20.28 yuan, suggesting potential upside [2]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 2,059 million yuan, with a growth rate of 32.0%, and is expected to reach 2,674 million yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 5.0% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline to 110 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 167 million yuan by 2027 [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease to 0.59 yuan in 2025, with a recovery to 0.89 yuan by 2027 [2][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 34 times in 2025, decreasing to 23 times by 2027 [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 24.2 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 450 million yuan, up 0.6% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue growth was primarily driven by an increase in retail channel sales, with core products such as range hoods, gas stoves, and dishwashers seeing price increases. However, the engineering channel faced pressure due to the low prosperity of the real estate sector [8]. - The gross profit margin improved to 54.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of lower-margin engineering channel revenue and a decline in stainless steel prices [8]. - The net profit margin slightly decreased to 16.5%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to increased marketing expenses ahead of promotional events [8]. - The company is expected to face short-term demand pressure due to the real estate market but maintains resilience through active marketing and product diversification. Long-term prospects are positive with a focus on multi-category development [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11,213 million yuan, 11,387 million yuan, 11,725 million yuan, and 12,106 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.1%, 1.6%, 3.0%, and 3.2% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,577 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 1,775 million yuan by 2027E, with growth rates of -9.0%, 2.4%, 5.9%, and 3.8% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 1.67 yuan in 2024A to 1.88 yuan in 2027E, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12, 11, 11, and 10 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 9.52 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for Q3 increased by 71% year-on-year, benefiting from market fluctuations. The return on equity (ROE) improved significantly, reaching 4.2%, up by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. - The overall business performance is positively correlated with market conditions, with notable growth in brokerage services, which saw a year-on-year increase of 152.3% [3][9]. - The company is progressing with its merger with Guorong Securities, which is expected to expand its business scale and development potential [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for the reporting period, excluding other business income, was 36 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.4% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.4 billion CNY, up 70.6% year-on-year [7]. - The company's total assets, excluding client funds, reached 820 billion CNY, an increase of 62 billion CNY year-on-year, with a net asset value of 297 billion CNY, up 14.2 billion CNY [8]. Business Segment Performance - Proprietary business revenue totaled 1.85 billion CNY, with a quarterly revenue of 590 million CNY, showing a decrease from the previous quarter [3]. - Brokerage business revenue was 980 million CNY for the quarter, reflecting a 68.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 152.3% increase year-on-year [3]. - Investment banking revenue was 280 million CNY, with a slight year-on-year increase [3]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s current share price is 8.61 CNY, with a market capitalization of 38.483 billion CNY [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.33 CNY, 0.35 CNY, and 0.38 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 1.31, 1.27, and 1.23 [10][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][21]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 124.15% year-on-year and 81.94% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 2.266 billion yuan in Q3 2025. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 462 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 225.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 91.60% [6][7]. - The company is actively seizing opportunities in domestic semiconductor equipment replacement, enhancing product innovation and industrial application. R&D expenses reached 184 million yuan in Q3 2025, up 10.87% year-on-year, with a research expense ratio of 8.13% [6][7]. - The company has become a leading domestic manufacturer in the integrated circuit field, with comprehensive coverage of hard mask processes and the highest market share in ALD equipment thin film processes [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 4.103 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51.7%. By 2025E, revenue is expected to reach 6.531 billion yuan, growing by 59.2% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 688 million yuan in 2024A, increasing to 1.035 billion yuan in 2025E, representing a growth rate of 50.4% [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 34.42%, with a net profit margin of 20.00%, showing an improvement in profitability despite a slight decline in gross margin due to new product costs [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [20]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the public fund holdings in the insurance sector have decreased, influenced by performance expectations for Q3. The overall non-bank financial holdings decreased by 0.17 percentage points, with the insurance sector's holdings dropping by 0.29 percentage points [3][4]. - The report highlights that major insurance companies like China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance have seen a reduction in their public fund holdings, while only a few companies like China Life and Sunshine Insurance experienced slight increases [4]. - The anticipated performance for Q3 shows significant growth for major insurers, with China Life's net profit expected to increase by 862 million yuan, and other companies like New China Life and PICC also showing positive growth [5]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - Non-bank financial holdings decreased by 0.17 percentage points, with insurance holdings at 1.1% and a decline of 0.29 percentage points [3]. - The report notes a general reduction in individual stock holdings within the insurance sector, with China Ping An maintaining the highest holding at 0.46%, despite a decrease of 0.09 percentage points [4]. Company-Specific Insights - China Life, New China Life, and PICC are projected to show substantial growth in net profit for Q3, with increases of 862 million yuan, 104 million yuan, and respective quarterly growth rates of +2094%, +174%, +151% for the quarter [5]. - The report suggests that the performance of the insurance sector is likely to remain strong in Q4 and throughout the year, contingent on the current activity levels in the equity market [8]. Investment Recommendations - For the short term, the report recommends considering stocks with performance elasticity, specifically New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and China Taiping [9]. - For the long term, it suggests a focus on fundamental performance and valuation, recommending China Pacific Insurance, China Financial Insurance, and China Ping An [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the semiconductor storage industry, highlighting a new storage supercycle driven by enterprise demand growth [3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor storage industry is experiencing a significant price increase across both DRAM and NAND Flash segments, driven by strong enterprise demand and supply optimization [7][10]. - AI server requirements are reshaping the storage landscape, leading to innovations and increased demand for high-capacity storage solutions [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Enterprise Demand Growth and Price Increases - DRAM prices are expected to rise significantly in Q4 2025 due to a recovery in server construction momentum and increased demand for DDR5 products [13][17]. - NAND Flash prices are also on the rise, with a forecasted average increase of 5-10% in Q4 2025, driven by supply optimization and growing enterprise demand [19][26]. 2. Impact of AI Servers on Storage Requirements - The expansion of cloud service providers' capital expenditures is expected to exceed $420 billion in 2025, driven by the rapid growth of AI server demand [27][28]. - The application of low-power memory, such as LPDDR5X, is becoming crucial for data centers to manage energy consumption while meeting high-performance requirements [39][40]. 3. Related Companies - Key companies to watch include Jiangbolong, Demingli, and Zhaoyi Innovation, which are positioned to benefit from the rising demand in the storage sector [10][11].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 ❖ 工业品价格独立性的三个分析切入视角 三个分析视角：1）按产品用途划分为生产资料和生活资料，生产资料分为采 掘、原材料、加工，生活资料分为食品、衣着、一般日用品、耐用消费品。2） 工业行业分类，划分为采矿业、制造业、电热气水，进一步可分为 41 个大类 行业、207 个中类行业。在常规分类之外，还可以从 3）高技术制造业、装备 制造业和战略性新兴产业的特殊分类视角去观察。对价格独立性的分析时段 是 2014 年至今。有两个原因：第一，我国经济发展阶段的转型期大致始于 2014 年前后（习总书记对经济"新常态"的阐述）。第二，数据的可获得性。 ❖ 生产和生活资料视角下，食品和衣着价格相对独立 我们估算，生产资料、生活资料的权重分别约 75%、25%，采掘、原材料、加 工业的权重分别约 4%、21%和 50%，食品、衣着、一般日用品、耐用消费品 的权重分别约 8%、3%、6%和 8%。 生产资料价格同比与 PPI 同比高度相关且几乎完全同步，相关系数高达 0.999， PPI 走势基本由生产资料价格决定。生活资料价格同比滞后 PPI 同比约 2 个季 度，相关系数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][26]. Core Viewpoints - The insurance industry experienced a total premium income of 52,146 billion yuan from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.9 percentage points. The life insurance sector's premium income was 31,708 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [7][8]. - The report highlights that the life insurance sector is facing challenges due to a decline in sales attributed to the adjustment of the preset interest rate, which has led to a cooling in sales in September 2025 [7][8]. - The property insurance sector showed improved performance, with a total premium income of 13,712 billion yuan from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The life insurance sector's cumulative growth has slowed, impacting overall premium growth. The health and accident insurance segments have shown growth, with health insurance premiums reaching 8,427 billion yuan (up 2.4% year-on-year) and accident insurance at 760 billion yuan (up 3.3% year-on-year) [7][8]. - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 40.4 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [7][8]. Life Insurance Companies - Life insurance companies reported a total premium income of 38,434 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. However, September saw a decline in life insurance premiums by 4.6% year-on-year [7][8]. - The report notes that the adjustment of the preset interest rate has had a short-term impact on sales, particularly in September [7][8]. Property Insurance Companies - The property insurance sector's premium income showed a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with car insurance accounting for 50% of the total premiums [7][8]. - The report indicates that the recent regulatory changes in non-auto insurance are expected to enhance cost efficiency in the industry, benefiting leading companies [7][8].