公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 四川成渝（601107）公告点评 强推（维持） 拟全现金收购荆宜高速，"大"集团、"小"公 司逻辑或持续兑现 风险提示：经济下滑、车流量明显下降、收购尚未完成存在一定的不确定性。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 10,362 | 9,946 | 10,246 | 10,717 | | 同比增速(%) | -11.1% | -4.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,459 | 1,630 | 1,728 | 1,867 | | 同比增速(%) | 22.9% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.61 | | 市盈率(倍) | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 美光科技（MU）FY2026Q1 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 各业务单元均创营收记录，毛利率大幅超过指引上限 会议地点：线上 事项： 2025 年 12 月 18 日，美光科技发布 FY26 Q1 报告，并召开业绩说明会。 评论： 1. 总体业绩情况：25Q4（即 FY26Q1）实现营收 136.43 亿美元（QoQ+20.6%， YoY+56.7%），高于指引中值（指引中值为 125 亿美元）。FY26Q1，公司总营 收、DRAM 和 NAND 营收、HBM 和数据中心营收以及各业务部门营收均创 纪录。公司 DRAM 和 NAND 营收创下新高得益于终端市场强劲需求推动的出 货量增长，以及行业 DRAM 和 NAND 供应紧张、定价策略有效和产品组合优 化推动的产品价格提升。FY2026Q1的Non-gaap毛利率为56.8%（QoQ+11.1pct， YoY+17.3pct），超过指引区间上限（指引为 51.5%上下浮动 100 个基点），主 要得益于更高的定价、有效的成本控制以及有利的产品组合。 2.数据中心市场预期及进展情况：公司 FY2026Q1 数据中心业务部门营收创下 24 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政"跨周期"的底气——11 月财政数据点评 事 项 11 月广义财政收入同比-5.2%，10 月同比-0.6%；11 月广义财政支出同比-1.7%， 10 月同比-19.1%。 主要观点 本月，税收收入在高基数上仍同比增长 2.8%、7 月份以来同比增幅高达 6.3%； 明年，我们判断财政收入端有三大逻辑支撑——牛市的税收效应、企业反内 卷、政府反内卷，或仍将成为财政"跨周期"的重要底气： ❖ 一、财政"跨周期"的底气 （一）背景：中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期"，财政部明确对标对表 12 月 12 日，蓝部长表示 "要对标、对表这次会议的要求，编制好明年的预算 盘子，抓好政策的实施，确保党中央的方针政策落地见效" ；财政部党组会议 提出 "按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 提升宏观经济治理效能。" （二）理解：财政"跨周期"，收入端或是重要的底气来源 不考虑结转结余等沉淀资金，财政支出=财政收入+债务； 参考中央经济工作会议的表述，在 "保持" 支出总量的前提下，对债务 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 高价高估新环境，推荐哑铃配置 ——2026 年转债年度投资策略 ❖ 2026 年权益市场展望：流动性强支撑，业绩与主题双线关注 2026 年流动性依然是市场的强支撑。权益市场呵护政策持续推进，权益宽基 指数稳健上行，使得公募规模、险资对股市投资规模等显著增长；股市也有持 续的流动性宽松政策指引，预期 2026 年权益市场流动性将延续强支撑。 主线行情酝酿中，部分行业已躁动。参考往年，至次年春节前后板块轮动的趋 势或将加速，也即进入主线行情酝酿期，而近期部分板块已开始躁动，如商业 航天、CPO 等。 估值抬升至中高区间后，可关注业绩修复。2025 年估值抬升贡献万得全 A 的 主要涨幅，估值水平到历史高位，潜在的估值担忧下：未来净利润及营收增速 预测与估值分位数尚有差距，或反应还有上涨空间；此外部分行业出现较明显 的 ROE 改善。 ❖ 2026 年转债市场展望：供需或逐步修复，估值或以震荡为主 供需：供给端有所改善，净变动延续收缩，债基需求仍有空间。2025 年供给 端新券发行同比增量，但仍处于历史相对低位，往后看供给恢复更依赖监管侧 的变化。供给收缩斜率相 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20251218 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债半数行业上涨，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.06%、上证综指环比上涨 0.16%、深证成 指环比下降 1.29%、创业板指环比下降 2.17%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.23%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.22%。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 1.44%、大盘价值环比上涨 0.98%、中盘成长环比下降 0.80%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.07%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.99%、小盘价值环比下降 0.02%。 债券研究 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 639.06 亿元，环比 增长 3.43%；万得全 A 总成交额为 16768.01 亿元，环比减少 8.59%；沪深两 市主力净流出 291.67 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.16bp 至 1.84%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 132.37 元，环比昨日上升 0.00%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 195.15 元，环比 下降 0.62%；偏债型转债的收 ...

港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 康耐特光学（02276.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,061 | 2,347 | 2,835 | 3,380 | | 同比增速(%) | 17.1% | 13.9% | 20.8% | 19.2% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 428 | 564 | 696 | 869 | | 同比增速(%) | 31.0% | 31.7% | 23.3% | 25.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.89 | 1.18 | 1.45 | 1.81 | | 市盈率(倍) | 48 | 41 | 33 | 27 | | 市净率(倍) | 13.0 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 17 日收盘价 其他轻工Ⅲ 2025 年 12 月 18 日 春节旺季临近，关注夸克 AI ...

Group 1: Profitability Insights - The ROE of the entire A-share market (excluding finance and oil) increased from 6.32% in mid-2025 to 6.37% by Q3 2025, primarily driven by improved sales net profit margins due to effective cost control[3] - Sales net profit margin rose from 4.65% to 4.69%, indicating effective cost management despite a decline in gross profit margin from 17.73% to 17.48%[13] - Asset turnover improved slightly from 56.21% to 56.37%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency[28] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Among 17 industries, 10 are experiencing low capacity utilization and low capital expenditure/depreciation, indicating a poor current supply-demand balance but potential for future improvement[4] - Over two-thirds of industries have capacity utilization below historical medians, highlighting persistent demand weakness in the economy[41] Group 3: Valuation and Dividend Trends - In the past year, 24 out of 33 industries exhibited a trend of rising valuations and declining dividends, suggesting a marginal increase in market risk appetite[5] - The report identifies industries with high valuations and low dividends as needing caution, while those with low valuations and high dividends are seen as having better risk-reward profiles[53] Group 4: Dynamic Transmission of Profitability - Historical data shows that improvements in ROE and asset turnover typically lead capital expenditure by six months to a year, indicating a lag in investment response to profitability improvements[6] - Midstream manufacturing and upstream construction materials show a one-year lead of ROE over capital expenditure, while downstream goods show a six-month lead[64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the real estate industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [38]. Core Insights - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 2.6% in the 50th week, ranking 28th among 31 primary industry sectors [7][12]. - New home transactions increased by 10% week-on-week, but year-on-year, new home sales decreased by 34% [18][19]. - The report highlights the need for developers to focus on high-precision land acquisition to ensure asset yield and suggests that regional deepening firms are better suited for the current market conditions [31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate index fell by 2.6% in the 50th week, ranking 28th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months was -11.1%, 5.3%, and -11.0%, respectively [2]. Policy News - Sichuan Province aims to enhance housing quality and promote the "Chuanju Good House" initiative as part of its 15th Five-Year Plan [14][15]. - Shandong Province introduced guidelines to support housing "old-for-new" exchanges to stimulate market activity [14][16]. Sales Data - In the 50th week, new home sales in 20 cities totaled 223 million square meters, with a daily average of 31.9 million square meters, reflecting a 10% increase week-on-week but a 34% decrease year-on-year [19][22]. - The total sales area for new homes from the beginning of the year to date is 96.76 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year [19][24]. Financing Trends - Most bond issuances this week were from local state-owned enterprises, with Financial Street issuing the largest scale of 81 billion yuan [27][28]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests three directions for finding alpha in the real estate sector: focusing on developers with high land acquisition precision, investing in leading shopping centers, and targeting leading real estate agencies [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [18]. Core Insights - The approval of L3 level conditional autonomous driving vehicles marks a significant milestone in China's intelligent connected vehicle industry, allowing two models from Changan and Jidu to conduct road trials in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing [2][7]. - The core feature of L3 autonomous driving is that the system can perform all dynamic driving tasks under specific conditions without the driver needing to monitor continuously, which may shift accident liability from drivers to manufacturers [7]. - The intelligent driving industry is transitioning from a dual-driven model of policy and technology to a four-dimensional resonance involving policy, infrastructure, commerce, and globalization, with L3 level autonomous driving signaling strong commercial opportunities [7]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 57,020.82 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 51,679.82 billion [4]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -3.6%, 19.5%, and 12.7%, respectively, while the relative performance is -1.9%, 1.7%, and -3.0% [5]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include Horizon Robotics, Hesai Technology, Suton Juchuang, Pony.ai, WeRide, Desay SV, Zhongke Chuangda, Jingwei Hengrun, Siwei Map, Hezhima Intelligent, Qianfang Technology, Wanjie Technology, Neusoft Group, Ruiming Technology, Guangting Information, and Jinli Technology [7].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 航空行业 2025 年 11 月数据点评 国内客座率同比增幅继续维持，国际供需加速 推荐（维持） 恢复 ❑ 航司 11 月数据分析： 11 月：ASK 同比：春秋(15.6%) > 南航(8.7%) > 东航(6.5%) > 吉祥(6.1%) > 国 航(4.9%)，RPK 同比：春秋(18.0%) > 南航(10.4%) > 东航(10.4%) > 国航 (10.1%) > 吉祥(8.9%)； 1~11 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(12.0%) > 东航(6.9%) > 南航(6.1%) > 国航 (3.3%) > 吉祥(2.3%) ，RPK 同比：春秋(12.0%) > 东航(10.9%) > 南航(8.0%) > 国航(5.6%) > 吉祥(3.4%)。 1)国内线：11 月：ASK 同比：春秋(16.3%) > 南航(5.6%) > 国航(3.9%) > 东航 (2.1%) > 吉祥(-0.5%)，RPK 同比：春秋(17.9%) > 国航(7.5%) > 南航(7.4%) > 东航(5.1%) > 吉祥(0.8%)； 1~11 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(8.1%) ...