Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from three main factors: the military radar business may gain from the acceleration of new combat capabilities; the Chinese military trade market is on the rise, which the company may continue to benefit from; and there is a focus on the company's low-altitude layout [7][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 218 million, 2025E: 1,077 million, 2026E: 1,345 million, 2027E: 1,616 million, with significant growth rates expected [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: 2024A: -78 million, 2025E: 126 million, 2026E: 175 million, 2027E: 243 million, indicating a recovery from losses in 2024 [2]. - Earnings per share are expected to improve from -0.23 in 2024 to 0.72 in 2027 [2]. Company Overview - The company is a leading entity in China's air defense early warning radar sector, with its main products including air defense early warning radars, radar supporting equipment, and radar components [6][20]. - The company has a low debt ratio, with an asset-liability ratio of 17.9% as of Q1 2025, indicating a strong financial position [34]. Market Position - The company is positioned as one of the main manufacturers of air defense early warning radars in China, with a significant market share in military radar production [20][23]. - The company has seen a notable increase in military trade revenue, which rose from approximately 3% in 2022 to 15% in 2023 [10][11]. Product and Technology - The company has developed a range of low-altitude detection products, including low-altitude safety control systems and various low-altitude detection radars, which have already received bulk orders from users [10][26]. - The company’s radar products are crucial for modern military operations, providing essential information for air defense and combat systems [40][42].

6 月需求仍保持两位数增长 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业跟踪报告 事项： ❑ 乘联会发布数据，6 月狭义乘用车产量 242 万辆，同比+13%，环比+6%；批发 249 万辆、同比+14%、环比+7%。 评论： ❑ 投资建议：6 月行业销量表现良好，预计下半年终端市场保持较好状态，在"反 内卷"和旺销双重背景下，价格战风险下降。但市场可能担心明年补贴政策波 动所致的销量波动，压制板块投资情绪，情绪消化后板块有望迎来布局机会。 整车：推荐江淮汽车，市场依然在量和盈利层面存在分歧，我们展望相对乐观， 下半年有望验证。建议关注理想汽车、北汽蓝谷、上汽集团、赛力斯、小米集 团，其中理想关注 i8 上市，北汽、上汽关注其管理层改革、鸿蒙智行新车。 零部件：受行业 beta 影响较大，近期机器人产业链也表现较弱，我们建议低位 布局，1）今年估值相对较低、2）明年业绩增速有望 15%以上。推荐新泉股份、 星宇股份、爱柯迪、豪能股份、地平线，建议关注纽泰格。此外，2Q 预期财 报相对较好的包括，豪能、继峰、新泉、立中、爱柯迪，建议关注。 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济、国内消费低于预期，汽车出口低于预期，新能源车销量 低于预期， ...

证券研究报 【债券日报】 金价&油价,如何影响通胀? -6月通胀数据解读 周三上午统计局公布数据显示 6月 CPI同比上涨0.1%,预期持平,前值降0.1%; � 6月 PPI 同比下降 3.6%,预期降 3.2%,前值降 3.3%。具体来看: 一、金价和油价扰动背后,两个价格核心关注问题 � 问题一:核心 CPI 回升是金价带动,还是需求端回暖? 拆解核心 CPI 的构成,得出服务占比稳定在 55%,核心消费品占比为 45%, 黄金占比为 0.55%,结合各分项价格变动可推算出 2025年上半年核心 CPI 环 比累计上涨 0.5%,其中黄金拉动 0.13%,服务拉动 0.17%,剔除黄金的其他核 心消费品拉动 0.2%,体现出今年促消费政策对服务和核心消费品的需求拉动 作用,黄金助涨了核心 CPI 但并非主要因素。需要注意的是剔除黄金后的核 心消费品环比二季度弱于一季度,关注新一轮消费刺激政策可能再次出台。 问题二:6月油价大幅上涨,为何 PPI同比反而下行? 6 月 PPI 环比继续保持-0.4%的降幅,原油价格上涨 9%约拉动 PPI 0.3 个百分 点,但国内生产淡季和"抢出口"效应的弱化抵消了这一 ...

不得 宏观研究 证券研究报 【宏观快评】6月通胀数据点评 外信! 宏观快评 2025年07月10日 从实际库存角度观察 PPI 事 项 6月,CPI 同比上涨 0.1%,预期持平,前值下降 0.1%;核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%, 前值上涨 0.6%。PPI 同比下降 3.6%,预期下降 3.2%,前值下降 3.3%。 主要观点 6月物价数据简评:四个要点 ogo 1、预计二季度 GDP 平减指数同比约-0.9%,一季度为-0.8%。二季度 CPI 同 比-0.03%,较一季度的-0.1%略有好转;不过,PPI同比-3.2%,较一季度的-2.3% 有所回落,商品房售价同比也较一季度有所下行。预计二季度名义 GDP 增速 约 4.4%,一季度为 4.6%。 2、本月 PPI 低于预期,也弱于 PMI 价格和高频价格的指引,可能有两个因 素:第一,高频的原材料价格向 PPI 相关行业的传导需要时间,并且若在需求 偏弱背景下,企业的实际交易价格可能低于市场报价。第二,PMI 价格中并未 包含采矿和公用事业,而"绿电增加"导致本月电热供应 PPI 环比跌 0.9%。 3、CPI 环比-0.1%,重点关注:1)毕业 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 财政扰动或集中在后半月 ——7 月流动性月报 综合资金缺口看，刚性因素中，7 月一般存款小月，释放的准备金规模或在 1388 亿元附近，货币发行或小幅消耗流动性 705 亿元左右，非金融机构存款小幅补 充 215 亿元；工具到期方面，1.2 万亿的买断式逆回购到期，与 6 月规模接近， 其中 3M 到期 7000 亿元，6M 到期 5000 亿元，MLF 到期量在 3000 亿元，规 模较上月小幅抬升，若资金压力增大，或依旧是延续超额续作的思路。财政因 素中，税期大月以及政府债券发行规模不小，政府存款对于流动性的冻结或在 9000 亿元附近，高于去年水平。合计 7 月流动性缺口在 2.4 万亿附近，整体资 金缺口压力或处于季节性偏大水平。 7 月初资金小幅宽松后向上收敛，存单定价下行受阻，后续扰动逐渐放大，资 金宽松空间或有限。7 月初资金扰动边际减小，DR007 或向 1.4%附近修复； DR001 基本在 OMO 利率偏下，大行融出修复至季节性高位；不过，在央行对 于"防止资金空转"以及"长端收益率走势"依然有关注度的情况下，预计资 金价格大幅宽松的空间或也 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】6 月通胀数据点评 从实际库存角度观察 PPI 事 项 6 月，CPI 同比上涨 0.1%，预期持平，前值下降 0.1%；核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%， 前值上涨 0.6%。PPI 同比下降 3.6%，预期下降 3.2%，前值下降 3.3%。 主要观点 6 月物价数据简评：四个要点 1、预计二季度 GDP 平减指数同比约-0.9%，一季度为-0.8%。二季度 CPI 同 比-0.03%，较一季度的-0.1%略有好转；不过，PPI 同比-3.2%，较一季度的-2.3% 有所回落，商品房售价同比也较一季度有所下行。预计二季度名义 GDP 增速 约 4.4%，一季度为 4.6%。 2、本月 PPI 低于预期，也弱于 PMI 价格和高频价格的指引，可能有两个因 素：第一，高频的原材料价格向 PPI 相关行业的传导需要时间，并且若在需求 偏弱背景下，企业的实际交易价格可能低于市场报价。第二，PMI 价格中并未 包含采矿和公用事业，而"绿电增加"导致本月电热供应 PPI 环比跌 0.9%。 3、CPI 环比-0.1%，重点关注：1）毕业季租房需求有所增加，房租上涨 0.1 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 金价&油价，如何影响通胀？ ——6 月通胀数据解读 拆解核心 CPI 的构成，得出服务占比稳定在 55%，核心消费品占比为 45%， 黄金占比为 0.55%，结合各分项价格变动可推算出 2025 年上半年核心 CPI 环 比累计上涨 0.5%，其中黄金拉动 0.13%，服务拉动 0.17%，剔除黄金的其他核 心消费品拉动 0.2%，体现出今年促消费政策对服务和核心消费品的需求拉动 作用，黄金助涨了核心 CPI 但并非主要因素。需要注意的是剔除黄金后的核 心消费品环比二季度弱于一季度，关注新一轮消费刺激政策可能再次出台。 问题二：6 月油价大幅上涨，为何 PPI 同比反而下行？ 6 月 PPI 环比继续保持-0.4%的降幅，原油价格上涨 9%约拉动 PPI 0.3 个百分 点，但国内生产淡季和"抢出口"效应的弱化抵消了这一作用。 （1）国内生产淡季：根据统计局通稿，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、非金属 矿物制品业、煤炭相关行业和电力热力生产和供应业共影响 PPI 环比下降约 0.33 个百分点，与油价的拉动作用基本抵消。 （2）"抢出口"效应弱化后，部分出口行业价格继 ...

转债市场日度跟踪 20250709 市场概况：今日转债缩量下跌，估值环比压缩 债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.25%、上证综指环比下降 0.13%、深证成 指环比下降 0.06%、创业板指环比上涨 0.16%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.26%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.27%。 市场风格：小盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.23%、大盘价值环比下降 0.13%、中盘成长环比下降 0.60%、中盘价值环比下降 0.17%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.32%、小盘价值环比下降 0.01%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 679.72 亿元，环比 减少 9.64%；万得全 A 总成交额为 15274.20 亿元，环比增长 3.58%；沪深两 市主力净流出 285.94 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.02bp 至 1.64%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 123.61 元，环比昨日下降 0.24%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 165.61 元，环比 下降 1.49%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Zhongyuan Media (000719) [1] Core Views - Zhongyuan Media is a high-quality local education publishing company with strong dividend capabilities and a high safety margin, while its new business prospects are promising [1][6] - The company benefits from its unique position as the only listed cultural enterprise in Henan Province, with a complete industrial chain covering publishing, distribution, printing, and educational services [6][13] - The company has a robust business model supported by its licensing advantages and stable revenue from its core publishing and distribution operations [6][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 9,857 million in 2024 to 11,189 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.3% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,030 million in 2024 to 1,397 million in 2027, with a notable growth of 22.5% in 2025 [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.01 in 2024 to 1.37 in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [2] Business Analysis - The company's revenue structure shows that publishing and distribution account for over 75% of total revenue, with distribution contributing 57% and publishing 23% in 2024 [25][31] - The company holds exclusive rights for textbook publishing and distribution in Henan, ensuring a stable demand base due to the large number of K12 students in the province [6][44] - Zhongyuan Media is actively expanding into vocational education, market-oriented supplementary materials, and AI+ education, which are expected to provide additional growth opportunities [6][8] Dividend Capability - The company has a strong willingness and ability to pay dividends, supported by its stable cash flow and low capital expenditure [6][8] - The controlling shareholder, the Henan Provincial Government, has a vested interest in maintaining high dividend payouts, further enhancing the company's safety margin [6][8] Investment Recommendation - The report anticipates steady growth in the company's core business, with potential increases in dividends providing a stronger safety margin [9] - The target price is set at 18.49 yuan, based on a relative valuation method using a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.5 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 to 1.14 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% to 50%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be 930 to 1,000 million yuan, with a growth of about 25% to 35% [2][8]. - The second quarter is estimated to yield a net profit of 900 to 970 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.7% to 48.3%, driven by strong performance in the U8 product line and cost optimization efforts [2][8]. - The company has seen a steady revenue growth, with the U8 product continuing to perform well. Sales volume is expected to show stable growth, with positive performance across various regions [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 14,667 million yuan in 2024 to 15,472 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.5% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase significantly from 1,056 million yuan in 2024 to 1,552 million yuan in 2025, marking a growth rate of 47.0% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.37 yuan in 2024 to 0.55 yuan in 2025 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a rare growth stock in the market, with ongoing reforms and the successful launch of the U8 product line contributing to improved product structure and profit margins [2][8]. - The report indicates that the company is likely to benefit from the gradual recovery of the restaurant sector and the continued expansion of its product offerings, which may enhance its market competitiveness [2][8].