宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 量价分配开启再均衡之路 ——6 月经济数据点评 4）居民收支：二季度末，外出务工农村劳动力总量 19139 万人，同比增长 0.7%。 收入方面，2 季度农民工月均收入同比为 3.0%，低于 1 季度的 3.3%。居民消 费倾向，今年 2 季度为 68.6%，去年同期为 68.5%。体现到居民消费增速方 面，2 季度为 5.2%，略高于于收入增速（5.1%）。 ❖ 核心观点：对于二季度的经济点评，重点讨论量价再均衡问题 ❖ 二、6 月的重点关注 1、首先，GDP 增速方面，2 季度为 5.2%，上半年为 5.3%。意味着，全年实 现 GDP 目标的难度大幅降低。实际增速或并非下半年首要考虑问题。 1）消费：6 月同比增速为 4.8%，前值为 6.4%。突出特征是餐饮增速回落较 多，6 月餐饮增速为 0.9%，前值为 5.9%，与餐饮相关的商品消费增速同样回 落。网购增速回落，耐用品消费增速维持偏高位置。 2、其次，从 GDP 名义增速方面，2 季度为 3.94%。其中，量的贡献率为 132% （以实际增速/名义增速），价的贡献率为-30.6%(以平减指数/名义增 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 海天精工（601882）跟踪点评 强推（维持） 盈利能力在"反内卷"下有望修复 目标价：26.18 元 事项： ❖ 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会第六次会议强调"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"， 提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产 能有序退出"，同日《求是》发文《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》。"反 内卷"成为制造业后续核心方向之一。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,352 | 3,732 | 4,285 | 4,889 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.9% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 14.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 523 | 620 | 730 | 848 | | 同比增速(%) | -14.2% | 18.6% | 17.7% | 16.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.40 | 1.62 | ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 江淮汽车（600418）2025 年半年度业绩预告点评 强推（维持） Q2 业绩预亏，看好尊界 S800 后续表现 目标价：59.24 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预亏公告，预计 25H1 归母净利-6.8 亿元，去年 同期为 3.0 亿元；扣非归母净利-8.2 亿元，去年同期为 0.9 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 42,202 | 47,484 | 59,993 | 71,506 | | 同比增速(%) | -6.3% | 12.5% | 26.3% | 19.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -1,784 | -59 | 1,483 | 3,749 | | 同比增速(%) | -1,277.6% | 96.7% | 2,634.1% | 152.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | -0.82 | -0.03 | 0.68 | 1.72 | | ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 机械行业深度研究报告 检测环节贯穿半导体产业链始终，专业化分 推荐（维持） 工下第三方检测空间广阔 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025E | | | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | | | 苏试试验 13.72 | | | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 22.65 | 18.41 | 15.14 | 2.70 | 强推 | | 广电计量 17.68 | | | 0.70 | 0.84 | 0.97 | 25.27 | 21.13 | 18.28 | 2.86 | 强推 | | 华测检测 12.05 | | | 0.62 | 0.68 | 0.76 | 19.57 | 17.65 | 15.92 | 2.60 | 强推 | | 资料来源： | Wind ， | 华创证券预测 | ...

Export Performance - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 5% and the previous month's 4.8%[1] - The import growth rate was 1.1% year-on-year in June, slightly below the expected 1.3% and a recovery from -3.4% in May[1] Tariff Impact on Export Prices - There is no substantial evidence that tariffs have led to a significant decline in China's export prices, with the export price index showing a marginal recovery since early 2024, although it remains in negative territory at -2.5% in May 2025[3] - The divergence between export-oriented PPI and non-export-oriented PPI has reached 3.6% in June, the highest since January 2007, indicating a potential for export price recovery[6] Future Export Outlook - For July, high-frequency indicators suggest that export growth may remain resilient but could slow marginally, particularly due to a potential increase in drag from the U.S.[8] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding tariff policies, with a deadline of August 12, may lead to increased export risks in the latter half of the year[9] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. continue to show low growth, contributing a negative 2.4 percentage points to June's overall export growth, while exports to ASEAN countries remain robust, contributing 2.8 percentage points[39] - The overall export growth in June was supported by strong performances in regions like ASEAN, Hong Kong, Africa, and the EU, which collectively added 7 percentage points to the growth[39]

Group 1: Key Continuities from 2015 - The meeting had a high-level attendance with all 7 Politburo Standing Committee members present, similar to 2015[2] - Both meetings mark the starting point for new five-year national plans, specifically the "13th Five-Year" and "15th Five-Year" plans[2] Group 2: Key Changes Observed - A significant shift in urbanization judgment, moving from rapid growth to stable development, with the current urbanization rate at 67% and a target of nearly 70% by the end of the "15th Five-Year" period[3][17] - The focus on "high-quality urban renewal" in 2025, contrasting with the 2015 emphasis on large-scale housing renovations[4][14] - Increased attention to urban "safety," with new directives to maintain safety standards and enhance urban resilience[4][21] - Identification of new industrial opportunities, including urban renewal, service industries, and pollution reduction initiatives[4][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [5][23]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2 to 2.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.06% to 52.58%, with a median estimate of 2.25 billion yuan, which is a 37.32% increase year-on-year [2]. - The growth is driven by strong performance in the precision flexible structural components for consumer electronics and the precision metal components from Huayang Tong, with significant contributions from major clients [8]. - The company has established a solid partnership with major clients, including Apple and Google, and is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the AI hardware sector [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,486 million yuan in 2024 to 7,152 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.7% to 27.6% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 457 million yuan in 2024 to 1,223 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 62.4% to 30.3% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.78 yuan in 2024 to 4.77 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [4]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is entering a harvest period for its consumer electronics business, with significant growth expected from its subsidiary Huayang Tong, which is expanding into new markets such as charging piles and energy storage [8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning in the AI hardware market, benefiting from the increasing demand for servers and related components [8]. - The company has built a flexible production network that allows it to adjust production schedules according to client needs, enhancing its cost structure [8].

Group 1: Banking Wealth Management Products - A total of 1,217 new wealth management products were launched from June 28 to July 11, 2025, a significant decrease from 1,687 in the previous period, marking a decline of approximately 27.9%[9] - Fixed income products dominated the new issuance, with 1,124 products accounting for 92.36% of the total, although this represents a decrease of over 3 percentage points compared to the previous period[9] - The average performance benchmark for fixed income products was 2.53%, the lowest among all types, indicating pressure on yields[9] Group 2: Fund Products - During the same period, 47 new public funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 301.47 billion units, a sharp decline of 61.64% from 786 billion units in the previous period[23] - Bond funds led the new fund market with 11 products, totaling 213.42 billion units, which accounted for 70.79% of the total issuance scale[24] - Equity funds showed a trend of "more quantity, less scale," with 24 new products but an average size of only 2.61 billion units, indicating a structural differentiation in new fund issuance[28] Group 3: Insurance Products - A total of 36 new insurance products were launched, reflecting a slight decrease of 5.26% from the previous period, with life insurance products remaining stable at 17[35] - Traditional life insurance saw a decline in new issuances, with only 8 new products, down 27.27%, while dividend and universal life insurance products increased[36] - The new issuance of annuity insurance products decreased from 22 to 19, with traditional annuities continuing to dominate the growth[37] Group 4: Market Trends and Risks - The market is experiencing a clear differentiation in the positioning of financial institutions, with state-owned wealth management companies leading in product innovation and market reach[18] - The report highlights potential risks, including slower-than-expected policy implementation and increased uncertainty from overseas factors[41]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国通胀的领先指标 ——出口深度思考系列之二 在年中展望报告中，我们认为今年"量"比"价"更重要。其简要逻辑在于， 在"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确定性"的基调下，出口风 险的主线是：美国进口→全球贸易/中国的出口→就业影响/政策对冲，而特朗 普关税政策可能引致的通胀上行风险对美国经济的冲击，是影响美国进口需 求的重要因素。因此从国内基本面出发考虑，将本篇报告列为出口深度思考系 列之二，通过构建一个领先指数，来定量地观察美国通胀的短期上行风险。 通胀上行如何冲击美国经济？ 1、居民部门：通胀上行，可能侵蚀美国消费者尤其是中低收入群体的实际收 入和消费能力。表面上来看，2021 年以来美国中低收入群体的实际薪资收入 增速要高于中高收入群体。但实际上，中高收入群体的总税后收入增速依然好 于中低收入群体，并且收入水平越低，税后收入增速越跑不过物价涨幅。基于 上述事实，如果通胀上行，实际薪资增速下行，对中低收入群体的实际购买力 以及整体贫富差距都存在负面影响，中低收入群体也是特朗普选民的基本盘。 2、居民部门：若出现明显的通胀上行，压制风险偏好带来美股下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 64 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to face challenges in the first half of 2025, with projected revenue of 1.498 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 56.52% year-on-year. However, sales volume increased by 14.54% year-on-year, indicating potential recovery [2][8]. - The second quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show a revenue of 539 million yuan, a decline of 31.37% year-on-year, with a net profit turning negative at -85 million yuan compared to a profit of 56 million yuan in the same period last year [2][8]. - The report highlights that the company is adjusting its operational strategies in response to market pressures, including slowing down shipment rates and enhancing channel management to stabilize pricing [8][9]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at 5.217 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3%. However, for 2025E, revenue is expected to decline by 10.1% to 4.687 billion yuan [4][8]. - The net profit for 2024A is estimated at 1.341 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.7%, while for 2025E, it is projected to drop to 1.004 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 25.1% [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is adjusted to 2.06 yuan, down from previous estimates, with a projected increase to 2.21 yuan in 2026E and 2.54 yuan in 2027E [4][8]. Market Performance - The company has been actively managing its market presence, with recent reports indicating a reduction in inventory levels from nearly three months to around two months, which is expected to stabilize pricing in the near future [8][9]. - The report notes that the company is taking measures to control market order and pricing, which may lead to a healthier operational environment as it enters the new fiscal year [8][9].