Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 35.6 yuan [2][62]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a clear operational turning point, with new store formats opening up significant growth opportunities. The focus is on quality, efficiency, and service, leveraging over 30 years of experience in the Chinese bun segment [2][62]. - The company has a robust growth strategy, aiming to open over 200 new stores annually, which could contribute approximately 8.3% to revenue growth. The potential exists to "recreate another company" with a mid-term target of 1500 stores [2][62]. Summary by Sections New Store Operations - The report highlights the operational performance of two new store formats: the Zhaoyuan Road dine-in store and the Jing'an New City takeout store, both showing promising sales figures [11][22]. - The Zhaoyuan Road store, located in a high-traffic area, has achieved daily sales exceeding 10,000 yuan, benefiting from promotional activities and a well-structured team [12][17]. - The Jing'an New City store, despite being a takeout format, has also shown strong performance, with estimated daily sales around 6,500 to 7,000 yuan, significantly higher than the average for similar stores in the region [22][32]. Future Replicability of New Store Formats - The transition from traditional buns to the new xiaolongbao format has increased operational complexity but also enhanced store efficiency. The new model requires more staff and has a higher SKU count, which raises management challenges [36][37]. - The xiaolongbao market is identified as having significant growth potential, with a large number of unbranded outlets, indicating substantial room for consolidation and brand establishment [38][39]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity due to its strong brand, efficient supply chain, and innovative operational strategies [43][44]. Investment Recommendations and Long-term Potential - The report suggests that the company is at a critical juncture, with the potential for significant growth through new store formats and operational improvements. The company is expected to maintain close to double-digit growth annually [62]. - Financial projections indicate that if the company opens 200 new stores each year, it could contribute approximately 1.56 billion yuan in revenue, with a potential to generate 11.7 billion yuan in revenue if the mid-term target of 1500 stores is achieved [57][58].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2025 年第 50 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： I think the automation of vision is a much bigger deal than the invention of perspective. —Trevor Paglen 多资产配置研究 资产配置快评 2025 年 11 月 11 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 49 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-11-04 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 48 期：风险管理的重 心回到通胀上行风险—10 月美联储议息会议点 评 2025 年第 7 期》 2025-10-30 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 47 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-10-29 《聚焦十五五——总量"创"辩第 1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 45 周） 万科与深铁签署 220 亿借款框架协议，新房 推荐（维持） 二手房成交同比降幅较大 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 11 月 11 日 华创证券研究所 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,336.23 | 1.06 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,833.34 | 1.26 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -1.6% | 16.8% | -8.9% | | 相对表现 | -3.3% | -5.3% | -23.3% | -27% -13% 1% 15% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/08 25/11 2024-11-11~2025-11-10 房地产 沪深300 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.c ...

Export Analysis - October exports unexpectedly turned negative year-on-year, influenced by base effects, with a two-year average year-on-year growth of 5.5%, similar to September's 5.3%[2] - For Q4, attention should be on the impact of reduced fentanyl tariffs on U.S. exports and the risk of weakening demand from the EU[2] - The core contradiction in exports is global trade volume (external demand), which can be tracked using a leading indicator system[2] Monetary Policy and Market Trends - In October, the central bank purchased 20 billion yuan in bonds, significantly below market expectations, indicating a cautious approach to bond buying[4] - The U.S. Treasury has increased bond supply to boost cash reserves, leading to a rise in short-term dollar financing pressures[5] - The average yield on 10-year government bonds has stabilized around 1.8% following various market influences[4] Investment Strategies - The stock fund total position is at 97.52%, down 54 basis points from last week, indicating a slight reduction in equity exposure[6] - The average return for balanced mixed funds was 0.7%, while stock ETFs averaged 0.43%[6] - The insurance sector has seen 34 instances of stake acquisitions this year, primarily in banking and public utilities, reflecting a focus on high dividend assets[9] Economic Outlook - The leading indicators suggest that export growth may rebound in November and December, with an annual export growth target around 5%[11] - The overall economic environment is expected to improve, with policies aimed at stabilizing asset quality and promoting credit growth[9]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fundraising - The issuance of actively managed equity public funds reached a new high since January 2023, with new issuance at 199 billion yuan, compared to 223 billion yuan previously, maintaining a 96% historical percentile[10] - Southbound capital has seen a cumulative net inflow of nearly 640 billion yuan over the past six months, with a weekly net inflow of 354.7 billion yuan, placing it at the 93% historical percentile[42] - The total amount of equity financing last week was 103 billion yuan, which is at the 53% historical percentile, including 35.9 billion yuan from IPOs and 67.1 billion yuan from refinancing[30] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 4000 points, while the search interest in A-shares on social media platforms has declined overall[74] - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market was 110.96 billion yuan, down 33.81 billion yuan from the previous value, placing it at the 59.2% historical percentile[12] - The trading heat for the media sector increased by 17 percentage points to 26%, while the electronic sector decreased by 11 percentage points to 43%[67] Group 3: Margin Trading and Capital Flow - The net inflow of margin trading funds significantly decreased to approximately 59.9 billion yuan, down from 290.9 billion yuan previously, placing it at the 57% historical percentile[16] - The total margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with a proportion of 2.54% of the market capitalization, at the 96% historical percentile[16] - The net inflow in the electric new energy sector was 107.5 billion yuan, while the non-bank financial sector saw a net outflow of 21.3 billion yuan[24]

Policy Dynamics - The "14th Five-Year Plan" elevates green development to a strategic height, aiming for a comprehensive green transformation through industrial structure adjustment and energy system reconstruction, with a focus on carbon peak and neutrality goals[7] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment indicates that the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market is rapidly developing, aiming to enhance international influence through expanded methodologies and data regulation[8] - The Ministry of Commerce is assisting SMEs in green transformation by optimizing services and establishing platforms, with an intention to enhance their green competitiveness[9] Industry Highlights - Major food delivery platforms in China have eliminated penalties for late deliveries, shifting to positive incentives, marking a significant change towards sustainable development[11] - The first carbon-neutral smart spinning factory in Jiangsu has been launched, achieving over 30% improvement in production efficiency and over 20% reduction in energy consumption, with near-zero carbon emissions[14] Capital Market Dynamics - As of October 31, 2025, the ESG index performance was mostly below the market average, with the ChiNext ESG index down by 5.1% and the Wind All A Sustainable ESG index down by 1.5%[25] - There are approximately 62 pure ESG public funds with a total net asset of 24.1 billion RMB, and no new funds were launched in October 2025[26] - The total number of ESG bonds in China is 3,668, with a total balance of 55,952 billion RMB, including 20,852 billion RMB in local government bonds[30] Risk Factors - Rapid policy changes and uncertainties, slower-than-expected policy implementation, backlash against ESG initiatives, and high costs of green technologies pose significant risks[37]

证 券 研 究 报 告 市场情绪监控周报（20251103-20251107） 本周热度变化最大行业为石油石化、综合 本周市场热度跟踪 本周宽基热度变化方面：热度变化率最大的为中证 2000，相比上周提高 7.38%， 最小的为"其他"，相比上周降低 5.69%。 本周申万行业热度变化方面，一级行业中热度变化率正向变化前 5 的一级行 业分别为石油石化、综合、农林牧渔、建筑材料、煤炭，负向变化前 5 的一级 行业分别为食品饮料、银行、纺织服饰、商贸零售、有色金属；申万二级行业 中，热度正向变化率最大的 5 个行业是油服工程、航天装备Ⅱ、冶钢原料、文 娱用品、元件。 本周概念热度变化最大的 5 个概念为科创次新股、中韩自贸区、青蒿素、家庭 医生、云办公。 本周市场估值跟踪 本周宽基和行业估值： 金融工程 沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 的滚动 5 年历史分位数分别为 85%、97%、 96%。 申万一级行业中，从 2015 年开始回溯，当前估值处于历史分位数 80%以上的 一级行业有：综合、电力设备、电子、轻工制造、商贸零售、银行、钢铁、计 算机、医药生物、煤炭、建筑材料、国防军工；位于估值历史 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation, focusing on opportunities arising from Hainan's customs closure and new duty-free policies [1]. Core Insights - The implementation of the new duty-free policy in Hainan has led to a significant increase in tourism consumption, with duty-free shopping amounting to 506 million yuan and a 34.86% year-on-year growth in shopping amounts during the first week of November [4][36]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port's policies are expected to stimulate regional economic development and industry upgrades, enhancing the performance of related companies such as China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, and Caesar Travel [4][36]. - The consumer services sector showed a slight increase of 0.11% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [7][26]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 457.1 billion yuan [1]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over the last month was -7.7%, with a 12-month performance of 9.2% [2]. Weekly Industry Performance - The consumer services sector's weekly performance was 0.11%, while the broader indices like the CSI 300 and the Hang Seng Index showed gains of 0.82% and 0.77%, respectively [7][26]. Important Announcements - Guangzhou Restaurant repurchased 6.3184 million shares, accounting for 1.11% of its total share capital [31]. - Changbai Mountain reported a net profit of 150 million yuan for Q3, a 19.43% increase year-on-year [31]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Notable upcoming meetings include China Duty Free Group on November 24 and Zhonggong Education on November 25 [35]. Industry News - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan is expected to grow significantly due to the new policies, with a notable increase in the variety of goods available [36]. - The trend of fresh dining experiences continues, with companies like Haidilao introducing new product lines to enhance competitiveness [36].

Group 1: AI Contribution to the US Economy - In the first half of 2025, AI-related investments contributed approximately 1% to the GDP growth rate, comparable to the 1.1% contribution from consumer spending[4] - After excluding the impact of capital goods imports, the contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth drops to about 0.2%[5] - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth is estimated to be only 9% when capital goods imports are considered, significantly lower than the 11%-18% contribution during the internet boom[21] Group 2: Future Expectations for AI Investment - The capital expenditure of major US AI companies (MAG7) is expected to grow by 54% and 30% in 2025 and 2026, respectively[7] - AI-related investments are projected to increase by 10% and 9% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, contributing approximately 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth[7] - When accounting for net imports, the contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 may only be around 0.1% and 0.3%[7]

Group 1: Policy Developments - The establishment of a new "Debt Management Department" by the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance monitoring and regulation of government debt, particularly to mitigate hidden debt risks[2] - The Ministry of Finance's report on fiscal policy execution for the first half of 2025 emphasizes a commitment to not increase hidden debt as a strict discipline, with accountability measures for violations[2] - The central bank resumed trading of government bonds on November 4, with a net liquidity injection of 20 billion yuan in October[3] Group 2: Economic Initiatives - The upcoming full closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 is highlighted as a significant step in expanding China's high-level opening-up strategy[7] - The government is focusing on enhancing the digital economy, artificial intelligence, and clean energy sectors as part of new economic application scenarios[12] - The Ministry of Commerce announced adjustments to tariffs on U.S. imports, indicating a shift in trade relations following the recent U.S.-China summit[3] Group 3: Risk Management - The government is implementing a comprehensive debt replacement policy while strictly addressing any new hidden debt behaviors as they arise[13] - There is a strong emphasis on maintaining a balance between development and security in the context of expanding openness, with a focus on risk identification and prevention[7]