债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 一二级债基增配转债，转债基金仓位提升 ——25Q4 公募基金可转债持仓点评 ❖ 公募基金持有转债仓位回落，加仓银行及电子转债 2025Q4 公募基金持有可转债市值 3082.51 亿元，环比减少 2.63%，但同比增加 7.24%。公募基金持有可转债市值占债券投资市值比为 1.46%，较 25Q3 降低 0.11pct；占净值比为 0.83%，较 25Q3 降低 0.04pct。 一级及二级债基增持。25Q4 股票型、混合型和债券型基金持有转债的市值分 别-9.08%、-11.55%、-1.92%至 8.25 亿元、196.86 亿元、2875.95 亿元。债券型 基金中，二级债基、一级债基、可转债基金持有转债市值分别+3.69%、+2.54%、 -3.67%至 1105.66、663.91、500.68 亿元；混合型基金中，灵活配置型和偏债混 合型持有转债市值分别为+1.53%和-17.88%至 63.61、102.35 亿元。 从变化的绝对金额上来看，各一级分类基金持转债市值均有所减少，股票型基 金持仓市值微降 0.82 亿元，但在本身体量偏小的影响下， ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 1.03%、上证综指环比下降 0.01%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.19%、创业板指环比下降 0.29%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.65%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.76%。 市场风格：中盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.71%、大盘价值环比下降 0.64%、中盘成长环比上涨 0.89%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.46%、小盘成长环比 上涨 0.55%、小盘价值环比下降 0.29%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 691.88 亿元，环比 减少 7.81%；万得全 A 总成交额为 25566.39 亿元，环比增长 3.05%；沪深两 市主力净流出 300.45 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 1.30bp 至 1.83%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 143.90 元，环比昨日下降 0.56%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 218.78 元，环比 下降 0.81%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 121.74 元，环比下降 1.04%；平衡型转债 的收盘价为 134.76 元，环比下 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业重大事项点评 政策落地，数据+AI 驱动要素价值释放 事项： ❑ 2026 年 2 月 7 日，国家数据局与工信部等多部门联合发布《关于培育数据流 通服务机构加快推进数据要素市场化价值化的意见》，提出到 2029 年底，数 据流通服务机构能力显著提升，流通交易形态更加多元，数据产品和服务更加 丰富，各类主体供数用数意愿持续增强，全社会数据流通利用水平明显提高。 计算机 2026 年 02 月 26 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 337 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 61,676.90 | 4.81 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 55,806.98 | 5.39 | 评论： 《计算机行业重大事项点评：CPU：供需格局优 化，国产龙头或迎价值重估机遇》 2026-01-29 《计算机行业重大事项点评： Agent ：海外 Clawdbot 引爆市场 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market showed an incremental increase today, with valuations rising on a month - on - month basis. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall valuation of convertible bonds also increased [2]. - Most underlying stock industries rose today, with 28 industries rising in the A - share market and 16 industries rising in the convertible bond market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.12% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.29%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.45%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.52% [1]. - In terms of market style, mid - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks rose 1.06%, large - cap value stocks fell 0.10%, mid - cap growth stocks rose 1.61%, mid - cap value stocks rose 1.82%, small - cap growth stocks rose 1.75%, and small - cap value stocks rose 1.60% [1]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 75.05 billion yuan, a 21.99% month - on - month increase; the total trading volume of the Wind All A Index was 2.480892 trillion yuan, an 11.84% month - on - month increase [1]. - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 11.568 billion yuan, and the yield of the ten - year treasury bond increased by 1.35bp to 1.82% on a month - on - month basis [1]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 144.27 yuan, a 0.38% increase from the previous day. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 219.78 yuan, a 0.07% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 123.36 yuan, a 0.16% increase; and the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 134.98 yuan, a 0.01% increase [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 82.21%, a 1.89pct increase from the previous day. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range (including 130) decreased by 1.35pct to 12.67%. There were 0 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 142.70 yuan, a 0.09% increase from the previous day [2]. - The fitted conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan par value was 41.29%, a 0.50pct increase from the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 107.23 yuan, a 1.16% increase from the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 21.91%, a 1.22pct decrease; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 90.01%, a 0.80pct decrease; and the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 28.29%, a 0.62pct decrease [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were steel (+4.69%), non - ferrous metals (+3.48%), and building materials (+2.75%); only two industries fell, namely media (-1.15%) and banks (-0.46%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 16 industries rose. The top three rising industries were steel (+4.24%), building materials (+3.07%), and non - ferrous metals (+2.31%); the top three falling industries were media (-2.23%), national defense and military industry (-1.33%), and communications (-1.11%) [3]. - In terms of closing price, large - cycle industries rose 1.33% month - on - month, manufacturing industries rose 0.09%, technology industries fell 0.70%, large - consumption industries fell 0.01%, and large - finance industries fell 0.34% [3]. - The conversion premium rate of large - cycle industries decreased by 2.1pct, manufacturing industries decreased by 1.1pct, technology industries decreased by 1.3pct, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.38pct, and large - finance industries decreased by 3.0pct [3]. - The conversion value of large - cycle industries rose 2.40% month - on - month, manufacturing industries rose 0.88%, technology industries rose 0.14%, large - consumption industries rose 0.63%, and large - finance industries rose 0.10% [3]. - The pure bond premium rate of large - cycle industries rose 2.0pct, manufacturing industries rose 0.12pct, technology industries fell 1.2pct, large - consumption industries fell 0.034pct, and large - finance industries fell 0.41pct [3]. Industry Rotation - Steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials led the rise. The daily increase rates of steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials in the underlying stock market were 4.69%, 3.48%, and 2.75% respectively. In the convertible bond market, they were 4.24%, 2.31%, and 3.07% respectively [57].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price of HKD 61.44, representing a 37% upside from the current price of HKD 44.72 [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to launch the A+D series models in 2026 to expand its product matrix, with projected sales of 600,000, 1,010,000, and 1,280,000 vehicles for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of +105%, +69%, and +28% respectively [2][9]. - The company has established a strong cost control strategy, which is central to its competitive advantage in the domestic market, allowing it to achieve significant sales growth and become the top seller among new energy vehicle brands in China by 2025 [7][39]. - The partnership with Stellantis is expected to enhance the company's international market presence, with a target of exporting 100,000 to 150,000 vehicles by 2026, marking a significant growth opportunity [9][24]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 32.16 billion in 2024 to HKD 151.75 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 92.1%, 102.9%, 75.9%, and 32.2% respectively [3][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching HKD 628 million, and further increasing to HKD 8.695 billion by 2027, with growth rates of 122.3%, 723.5%, and 68.2% respectively [3][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to improve from a loss of HKD 1.98 in 2024 to a profit of HKD 6.12 by 2027 [3][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully differentiated itself in the competitive landscape by focusing on high cost-performance vehicles, which has led to a significant increase in sales volume [7][39]. - The strategic collaboration with Stellantis, which includes a joint venture for overseas operations, is expected to provide the company with valuable resources and market access, enhancing its growth potential in international markets [9][24]. - The company plans to leverage its unique supply chain capabilities and cost advantages to maintain its competitive edge against traditional automotive giants like BYD and Geely [10][12].

Economic Overview - Q4 US GDP growth was weaker than expected, with a quarterly annualized rate of +1.4%, down from +4.4% in the previous quarter and below the expected +2.5%[1] - Year-on-year GDP growth for Q4 was +2.2%, slightly down from +2.3% previously and below the expected +2.5%[1] Consumer Spending - Q4 private consumption increased at a quarterly annualized rate of +2.4%, down from +3.5% previously and below the expected +2.6%[3] - Service consumption remained the main driver, while durable goods consumption weakened, with a quarterly annualized rate of -0.9% for durable goods[3] Investment Trends - Q4 private investment rose at a quarterly annualized rate of +3.8%, compared to 0% in the previous quarter and above the expected +2.5%[3] - AI-related investments are projected to grow by +16% year-on-year in 2025, while residential investment is expected to decline by -2.2%[3] Government Spending - Q4 government spending fell significantly, with a quarterly annualized rate of -5.1%, down from +2.2% previously and below the expected -2.1%[3] - The decline in federal government spending was particularly sharp, with a quarterly annualized rate of -16.6%[3] Tax Refunds and Economic Stimulus - The OBBBA Act is expected to provide approximately $100 billion in tax refunds, potentially boosting consumer spending by 0.6 percentage points if fully utilized[4] - The act includes various tax relief measures aimed at increasing disposable income for households in 2026[4] Export and Import Dynamics - Net exports negatively impacted GDP growth, contributing -1.5% to the overall GDP growth rate in Q4[3] - Exports decreased at a quarterly annualized rate of -0.9%, while imports slowed to -1.3%[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers and the scale of defaulted bonds decreased significantly. The default of state - owned enterprises came to an end, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed. The scale of default repayment increased, but most real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [1][6][7]. - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The net financing scale of non - state - owned enterprises turned positive for the first time since 2018. Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5% [3][19][20]. - Looking forward to 2026, the policy bottom - line is to prevent systemic risks. The overall credit risk is relatively controllable, but the operating pressure of some tail - end entities in certain industries remains, and default risks are still worthy of attention [3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - **Newly - defaulted issuers and bond scale**: The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers in 2025 decreased to 4, with 3 from the real - estate industry and its upstream and downstream chains. The scale of defaulted bonds continued to decline, and the extended - term part due to the continuous exposure of default risks from 2022 - 2023 ended by the end of 2024 [1][6]. - **Enterprise nature**: State - owned enterprise defaults ended in 2025, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed, especially those in the real - estate industry chain that had not defaulted during the previous strict regulatory period [7]. - **Default repayment**: In 2025, there were 118 cases of default bond repayments, with a total principal repayment of 14.3 billion yuan and interest of 639 million yuan. The real - estate industry repaid 12.1 billion yuan in principal, and 11 out of 17 real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [7]. 3.2 Default Analysis: Continuous Exposure of Broad - sense Private Enterprises and Slight Decline in Cumulative Default Rate 3.2.1 Default Overview - The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers decreased to 4 in 2025, all non - state - owned. The total outstanding bonds of defaulted issuers increased significantly year - on - year, mainly due to the extension of Vanke's large - scale bonds. The scale of defaulted bonds decreased by 67% year - on - year [11]. - Industry - wide, since 2014, credit bond default issuers have been widely distributed across 29 Shenwan industries, and in 2025, they were mainly in real estate, building decoration, and power equipment. Regionally, since 2014, default issuers have covered most provinces, and in 2025, they were in Guangdong and Zhejiang [14]. 3.2.2 Default Rate - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The non - state - owned net financing scale turned positive for the first time since 2018 to 24.3 billion yuan [19]. - Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5%, with real estate and commercial trade having relatively high default scales, and electrical equipment and textile and clothing having relatively low total bond - issuing scales [20]. 3.2.3 Default Reasons - Macroeconomic policies and market environment continuously affected the credit risks of entities. Entities like Xinjie Holdings, Zhengxinglong Real Estate, and Vanke were greatly affected by the previous strict real - estate regulatory policies, while Shanshan Group's poor performance was due to industry cycle changes [3][25]. 3.3 Default Recovery Situation - The cumulative recovery rate and recovery time of defaulted credit bonds have been decreasing year by year. Since 2020, the annual default recovery rate has been less than 20%, and the average recovery time is within two years, with the decline narrowing in 2025 [30]. - As of 2025, the cumulative default recovery rate of state - owned enterprises was 25.12%, 13 percentage points higher than that of non - state - owned enterprises, and the gap remained basically the same as the previous year [33]. - In 2025, real - estate bond repayments still dominated. The total principal repayment of defaulted bonds was 14.3 billion yuan, with the real - estate industry repaying 12.1 billion yuan. Sunac repaid 9.5 billion yuan in principal, and Shanshan Group among the newly - defaulted issuers in 2025 repaid 267 million yuan in principal [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The insurance sector's asset management balance reached approximately 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 15.70% [2][4]. - The average comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio for insurance companies stands at 181.1%, with life insurance companies at 169.3% and property insurance companies at 243.5% [2]. - The industry is experiencing a shift in dividend insurance products, with a notable decrease in the preset interest rate to 1.25%, down from the previous cap of 1.75% [2]. - The overall premium income for the industry in 2025 is projected to be 6.12 trillion yuan, with a high fund conversion rate of 85% [4]. Summary by Sections Asset Management - As of Q4 2025, the asset management balance of insurance companies is nearly 38.5 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 34.66 trillion yuan and property insurance companies 2.42 trillion yuan [2][4]. - The fund conversion rate for life insurance companies is exceptionally high at 108%, while property insurance companies have a much lower rate of 11% [4]. Equity Allocation - The allocation of equity and fund assets in the industry reached 5.70 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 15.4% of total assets, maintaining a historical high [5]. - The stock assets alone amount to 3.73 trillion yuan, representing 10.1% of total assets, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the insurance sector is currently in a correction phase, primarily influenced by liquidity conditions around the Spring Festival [5]. - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and New China Life Insurance, with respective PEV valuations [6][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The insurance sector's total asset allocation reached approximately 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 15.7%, with a net increase of over 5 trillion yuan throughout the year [2][4]. - The average comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio for insurance companies stands at 181.1%, with life insurance companies at 169.3% and property insurance companies at 243.5% [2]. - The industry is experiencing a shift in dividend insurance products, with a notable decrease in the preset interest rate to 1.25%, down from the previous cap of 1.75% [2]. - The overall premium income for the industry in 2025 is projected to be 6.12 trillion yuan, with a high fund conversion rate of 85% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 2.52%, underperforming the market by 2.88 percentage points, with significant variations in individual stock performances [1]. Asset Allocation - The allocation of equity and fund assets in the insurance sector reached 5.70 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 15.4% of total assets, maintaining a historical high [5]. - The stock assets alone amounted to 3.73 trillion yuan, representing 10.1% of total assets, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [5]. Company Performance and Valuation - The estimated PEV (Price to Embedded Value) for major life insurance companies is as follows: China Life at 0.89x, New China Life at 0.85x, Ping An at 0.78x, and China Pacific at 0.69x [6]. - The recommended order for investment in major companies is China Pacific, Ping An, China Life H, and China Property Insurance [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that dividend insurance will attract household savings during the interest rate decline cycle, supporting growth in new premium income and net profit value (NBV) for life insurance [5]. - The long-term interest rates are expected to stabilize and rise, which may positively influence the PEV towards 1x [5].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中航西飞（000768）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 鲲鹏凌云、振翼西飞——华创交运|航空强国 系列研究（五） 航空军工 2026 年 02 月 24 日 当前价：30.48 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 278,114.91 | | --- | --- | | 已 ...