Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) has been downgraded to "Recommended" due to lower-than-expected performance [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 9.1-9.3 billion with a year-on-year decline of 7.9%-9.9% and a net profit of 1-1.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 36%-47% for the first half of 2025 [2][7]. - The company plans to invest no less than 1 billion in share buybacks and expects to distribute dividends of no less than 2 billion in 2025, down from 2.72 billion in the same period last year [2][7]. - The company anticipates low single-digit growth for the full year, with a projected revenue increase of 10%-15% in the second half of 2025 [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (million) for 2024 is projected at 20,749, with a slight increase to 20,766 in 2025, and further growth to 22,054 in 2026 [4]. - The net profit (million) is expected to decline from 3,570 in 2024 to 3,025 in 2025, before recovering to 3,602 in 2026 [4]. - Earnings per share (CNY) are forecasted to decrease from 0.39 in 2024 to 0.33 in 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.40 in 2026 [4]. Market Performance - The target price for the stock is set at 5.1 HKD, with the current price at 4.58 HKD [4][7]. - The company maintains a market capitalization of 41.5 billion HKD and a total share capital of 9.067 billion shares [5][7]. Industry Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in newborn population growth and the implementation of fertility subsidies, which may improve industry conditions over the next 2-3 years [7]. - The company is positioned as a leading brand in the infant formula market, with a strong channel foundation and plans to launch higher-end products in the second half of 2025 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market showed incremental growth today, with valuations rising compared to the previous day. The small - cap growth style was relatively dominant, and trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. - The central price of convertible bonds increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. Valuations also increased, with different types of convertible bonds showing varying price and premium rate changes [2]. - Most underlying stock industries rose today, with some industries in the convertible bond market also rising while others declined [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.77% compared to the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.39%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.57%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.27%. The small - cap growth style was relatively dominant, with small - cap growth rising 1.55% [1]. - Various convertible bond - related indices, such as the Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index and the Convertible Bond Index, also showed different degrees of increase [7]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 75.227 billion yuan, a 16.81% increase compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.474613 trillion yuan, a 20.17% increase. The net inflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 6.568 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.38bp to 1.64% [1]. Convertible Bond Valuation - After excluding certain convertible bonds, the 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 25.47%, a 0.63pct increase compared to the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 94.75 yuan, a 1.07% increase. Different types of convertible bonds had different premium rate changes [2]. - The price median of convertible bonds was 125.51 yuan, a 0.76% increase compared to the previous day, and it was at the 95.10% quantile since 2019 [21]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were communication (+2.89%), power equipment (+2.30%), and electronics (+2.27%), while the two declining industries were public utilities (-0.37%) and banks (-0.24%). In the convertible bond market, the top three rising industries were communication (+3.03%), electronics (+1.55%), and building materials (+1.53%), and the top three declining industries were environmental protection (-1.89%), computer (-1.25%), and public utilities (-0.08%) [3]. - In terms of different sectors, the closing price of the large - cycle sector rose 0.28%, manufacturing rose 0.69%, technology rose 1.14%, large - consumption rose 0.66%, and large - finance rose 0.59%. The conversion premium rate, conversion value, and pure - bond premium rate of each sector also showed different changes [3]. Industry Rotation - The communication, power equipment, and electronics industries led the rise. The report also provided detailed data on the daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes in the underlying stocks and convertible bonds of various industries, as well as their valuation quantiles [55].

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The narrative that the dollar will enter a prolonged decline akin to the 70s and 80s needs reassessment, as the fastest decline of the dollar may have already passed[13] - The U.S. economy's growth rate relative to Europe and Japan remains superior, suggesting potential dollar strength in the medium term[13] - The dollar index has shown a long-term divergence from the U.S. economic share, with the index rising despite a declining economic share post-2008 financial crisis[15] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Insights - In July, the bond market is expected to face downward pressure, with credit outperforming rates[29] - Government bond net financing is projected to increase to between 1.5 trillion and 1.7 trillion yuan in July due to accelerated local government bond issuance[27] - The average decline in the 10-year government bond yield from 2021 to 2024 is approximately 4.4 basis points, indicating a trend of decreasing yields[29] Group 3: Equity Market Trends - The total position of stock funds increased to 94.90%, up by 97 basis points from the previous week, indicating a bullish sentiment[36] - The average return of stock funds this week was 1.31%, reflecting positive market performance[38] - The Hang Seng Index saw a decline of 1.52%, suggesting a mixed outlook for Hong Kong equities[39] Group 4: CIPS Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China is revising CIPS rules to enhance participant management and flexibility, allowing for easier access to the system[43] - The CIPS system processed 821.69 million transactions worth 175.49 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 42.60% increase year-on-year[42] - The new rules include risk management requirements and clarify the roles of domestic and foreign participants in the CIPS framework[43]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [32]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming launch of two significant new models in July 2025: the Li Auto i8 and the Leapmotor B01, which are expected to have a substantial impact on their respective stock prices. The Li i8 is a C-class six-seat electric SUV priced between 300,000 to 400,000 CNY, while the Leapmotor B01 is an A-class sedan priced between 100,000 to 150,000 CNY [6][10][18]. - The report suggests that the new models are likely to catalyze investment in the automotive sector, recommending a focus on companies such as Jianghuai Automobile, Li Auto, BAIC Blue Valley, SAIC Group, and others [6][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive industry consists of 225 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 30,810.37 billion CNY and a circulating market value of about 23,623.17 billion CNY [3]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the automotive sector has seen declines of -3.5% over the past month, -4.3% over six months, and -9.1% over the past year. However, relative performance has improved by 1.3% over six months and 3.2% over the past year compared to the benchmark [4]. New Model Launches - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking the market expectations and launch situations of the Li i8 and Leapmotor B01, as they are anticipated to generate significant sales. The Li i8 is expected to sell 3,000 to 5,000 units monthly, while the Leapmotor B01 is projected to sell 8,000 to 10,000 units monthly [6][11][18]. Competitive Landscape - The Li i8 will compete in a market segment of approximately 130,000 units annually, targeting families with multiple children. Its main competitors include NIO ES6, Li L8, and Mercedes-Benz GLC [16]. - The Leapmotor B01 is positioned in a market of about 2.4 million units annually, appealing to young families seeking technology and value. Its competitors include BYD Qin L and Volkswagen Sagitar [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the new model launches as potential catalysts for investment in the automotive sector, particularly highlighting the Li i8 and Leapmotor B01. It suggests a positive outlook for Jianghuai Automobile and other companies mentioned [6][10].

Liquidity and Funding - The supply side of funds is contracting, with public equity new issuance dropping to 3.52 billion units from 14.36 billion, representing a 44% percentile over the past three years[8] - Southbound funds have maintained a weekly average net inflow of over 10 billion for seven consecutive weeks, totaling over 120 billion[4] - The total amount of stock buybacks increased significantly to 9 billion from 2.09 billion, reaching the 98% percentile over the past three years[24] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the photovoltaic sector rose by 22 percentage points to 27%, while the steel sector increased by 21 percentage points to 39%[4] - The brokerage sector's trading heat increased by 14 percentage points to 53%, indicating a strong interest in these sectors[50] - Conversely, the mechanical sector's trading heat decreased by 11 percentage points to 11%, and the medical services sector fell by 6 percentage points to 84%[4] Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market reached 81.57 billion, an increase of 21.87 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 37.6% percentile over the past five years[4] - The market saw a significant rise in search interest for A-shares on Kuaishou, reaching a new high for the year as the Shanghai Composite Index approached 3500 points[66] - The sentiment on Weibo improved significantly, driven by the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, indicating a rise in optimistic sentiment among investors[74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in its AI server and optical module businesses, with Q2 2025 performance exceeding expectations. The forecasted net profit for H1 2025 is between 11.96 billion to 12.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.84% to 39.12% [1][6]. - The AI server segment is driving substantial revenue growth, with a projected increase of over 60% year-on-year. The overall cloud computing business is expected to grow by more than 50% compared to the same period last year [6]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients such as Microsoft, AWS, and NVIDIA, enhancing its competitive position in the AI server market [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 609.14 billion yuan in 2024 to 1,196.68 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 23.22 billion yuan in 2024 to 42.96 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 19% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.17 yuan in 2024 to 2.16 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [2]. Market Position - The company holds a leading position in the global server manufacturing sector, benefiting from the rising demand for AI infrastructure. The global AI server market is projected to grow from 125.1 billion USD in 2024 to 158.7 billion USD in 2025 [6]. - The company is enhancing its product offerings and optimizing its production capabilities, which is expected to further solidify its market share in the AI server segment [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The highlights in 2024 are the significant slowdown in the growth rates of interest - bearing debt and urban investment bonds of urban investment platforms, the remarkable effect of "hidden debt turning into explicit debt", and the convergence of investment and financing intensity [6][8][66]. - Concerns include the need to improve the financing structure, the considerable debt pressure in economically large provinces like Zhejiang and Jiangsu, the reduction of book funds and the decline in the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt, and the large - scale outstanding project payments from local governments to urban investment platforms and inter - state - owned enterprise transactions [6][8][67]. - In 2025, the focuses of urban investment include the delisting of financing platforms and their subsequent market - oriented transformation, the settlement of overdue enterprise accounts, and the resolution of non - standard products involving the public [9][68]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2024 Urban Investment Debt Resolution Achievements - **Overall Debt Scale and Growth Rate**: The interest - bearing debt and urban investment bonds of urban investment platforms increased slightly year - on - year, with growth rates dropping to the lowest since 2019. The debt growth rate has declined for four consecutive years. The reasons are debt replacement by local government bonds, weakened project financing demand, and strict bond financing policies [13]. - **Provincial Debt Changes**: Six key provinces saw a year - on - year decrease in interest - bearing debt, with Tianjin and Guizhou having the most significant reduction. In terms of bonds, 12 provinces had a year - on - year decrease in urban investment bond scale, with Jiangsu, Tianjin, Hunan, and Guizhou having obvious shrinkage [17][19]. - **Debt Ratio Changes**: The local broad and explicit debt ratios continued to rise, with the explicit debt ratio's year - on - year growth rate reaching a new high in recent years. Since 2021, the growth rate of the explicit debt ratio has been higher than that of the broad debt ratio, in line with the debt resolution idea of "hidden to explicit". Most provinces saw an increase in the broad debt ratio in 2024, except for six provinces [22][25]. - **Financing Structure Changes**: The proportions of bank loans and bonds in urban investment debt both decreased year - on - year, with a combined decrease of 2.2 percentage points. This part of the financing demand may have shifted to high - cost non - standard financing channels [4][27]. - **Debt Maturity Structure Changes**: The proportion of long - term debt increased slightly in 2024, but there is still room for improvement compared with 2019 - 2022 [39]. 3.2 Information Revealed by the Three Financial Statements of Urban Investment Platforms - **Balance Sheet**: The asset - liability ratio of urban investment platforms was basically stable, but the short - term solvency weakened. The coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt decreased, and the government's project payments and inter - state - owned enterprise transactions may still need improvement [5][43]. - **Income Statement**: The operating income of urban investment platforms decreased for the first time in six years in 2024, and the net profit continued to decline. This is related to the tight investment and financing environment and the change in government assessment focus [5][51]. - **Cash Flow Statement**: The net operating cash flow of urban investment platforms deviated from the income statement and increased significantly after turning positive in 2023. The net investment cash flow was continuously negative, and the net financing cash flow decreased by 39% year - on - year, indicating a convergence of investment and financing intensity [5][57][60]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: The growth rates of interest - bearing debt and urban investment bonds slowed down, the debt scale was effectively controlled, and the investment and financing intensity of urban investment platforms converged [66]. - **Outlook**: In 2025, focus on the delisting and market - oriented transformation of financing platforms, the settlement of overdue enterprise accounts, and the resolution of non - standard products involving the public [9][68].

债券研究 7 月生产/消费季节性上利好上游，反内卷助力。随着下半年传统消费旺季临 近，Q3 也是每年生产旺季，7 月工业品、金属及能化品种价格近 20 年普遍显 现为上涨趋势，7、8 月也是每年季节性用电高峰，煤炭、石化等需求高峰也或 临近，生产的季节性可以解释部分为何每年 7、8 月上游相对占优。此外，近 1 年反内卷的政策表述在强化，基本可作为近期政策交易主线，化工、钢铁、 有色等上游品种或进一步获得涨价预期。 ❖ 估值展望：再临前高位，建议审慎中性 转债问题在于估值偏高。截至上周五百元溢价率再次来到 25%以上的位置，接 近 2024 年 10 月及 2025 年 3 月的前高位，在权益波动性快速回归、市场对权 益预期高涨时期，转债估值高位震荡虽为正常，但突破前高还需更多事实性变 化推动（如宽基指数的进一步突破震荡区间、宏观图景的大幅上修等），后市 还待进一步观察。而从转债和估值期权隐波比较的视角，当前转债明显被高估， 两者差额一度突破今年 2 月峰值（当时转债资金面明显强于权益）。转债估值 高位下，上行空间或有限，建议重点关注上游、成长的轮动性机会，策略上仍 以交易为主，当前并非做配置的好窗口。 转债 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 各行业如何"反内卷"？ ❖ 核心观点 近期市场对供给侧改革的关注升温，参照综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方 表态，反内卷的重点行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。结合 数据可得性与行业进展，我们重点关注 5 个产业，近期其基本面均面临一定压 力，例如光伏价格偏弱但生产端持续偏强、汽车销售折扣率再度提升、钢铁水 泥价格仍然偏弱、生猪行业临近亏损等。从其反内卷措施来看，以行业自律、 行政指导、舆论监督为主，按照约束力排序，或是钢铁>生猪>汽车>水泥>光 伏，关注后续落地进展。 ❖ 一、政策如何定调？ 什么是"内卷式"竞争？参考求是中的界定，既包括企业端的低价竞争、同质 化竞争、与过度宣传营销，也包括政府端的"制造…不公平非普惠的优惠政策"、 "不顾地方产业基础和资源禀赋情况，盲目上马新兴产业、重点产业"、"保护 本地市场、扶持本地企业，设置或明或暗的市场壁垒"。 主要涉及哪些行业？综合求是、人民日报、工信部等官方表态，反内卷的重点 行业或包括光伏、锂电、新能源汽车、电商平台等。 如何"反内卷"？参照求是《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》的阐述， 反内卷需 ...