证 券 研 究 报 告 三峡能源（600905）2025 年中报点评 推荐（首次） 短期业绩承压下滑，储备项目丰富支撑远期 成长弹性 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 29,717 | 30,540 | 31,023 | 33,640 | | 同比增速(%) | 12.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 8.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 6,111 | 6,878 | 7,377 | 7,837 | | 同比增速(%) | -14.9% | 12.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.27 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 18 | 17 | 16 | | ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 广深铁路（601333）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 25H1 归母净利+21.55%，客货运收入均增长 公司公告 2025 年半年度报告：1）2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入 139.69 亿元，同比增长 8.08%；归母净利润为 11.09 亿元，同比增长 21.55%；扣非后 归母净利润 10.58 亿元，同比增长 17.44%。2）分季度看，2025Q1、Q2 公司 分别实现营业收入 68.96、70.73 亿元，同比分别+4.47%、+11.84%；归母净利 润 4.68、6.41 亿元，同比分别-14.4%、+75.38%；扣非后归母净利润 4.16、6.42 亿元，同比分别-23.02%、+78.14%。3）经营效率：2025H1，公司毛利率 10.41%， 同比下降 0.24pct，期间费用率 0.95%，同比上升 0.17pct。 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 27,090 | 28,713 | 30,126 | 3 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 我们构建两个税收竞争指标（注：仅提供参考视角，主要衡量税收维度上的政 策吸引力强度，反映税收视角观察的地方保护倾向，不等同于地方保护）：一 是各省税收竞争指数（税收竞争指数越高，表示税收竞争强度越大、税收政策 对企业更有吸引力；详见第二章），二是各省上市公司税费返还率（衡量该省 实际免除上市公司税费的比重，税费返还率越高，表示对上市公司越重视；详 见第三章）； 由此，我们提供一个从税收维度观察全国和分省地方保护倾向的视角：当前税 收竞争指数接近过去 30 年最大值，反映了统一大市场的必要性。 由两个指标进一步分析，以各省税收竞争指数为横轴、上市公司税费返还率为 纵轴、税收收入作为气泡大小，可以绘制气泡图，将 31 省分为 4 种竞争模式。 具体来看： 一、地方保护的税收尺度：31 省，4 种竞争模式 自由型——税收竞争指数低，上市公司返还低：北京、天津、山西、陕西、贵 州、内蒙古、青海、四川、安徽、新疆、西藏；这些省市的地方保护倾向或最 低。 【宏观专题】 地方保护的"衡量" ——基于税收尺度的定量研究 主要观点 中央财经委员会第六次会议研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，而在统 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 生益科技（600183）2025 年半年报点评 强推（维持） 高速 CCL、PCB 共振，推动公司开启新一轮 成长 事项： 公司 2025H1 实现营业收入 126.80 亿元（YoY+31.68）；归母净利润 14.26 亿元 （YoY+52.98%）；扣非净利润 13.78 亿元（YoY +51.68%）；毛利率为 25.86% （ YoY+4.3pcts ）。 2025Q2 实 现 营 业 收 入 70.69 亿元（ YoY+35.77% ， QoQ+25.97%）；归母净利润 8.63 亿元（YoY+59.67%，QoQ+53.08%）；扣非净 利润 8.19 亿元（YoY+56.64%，QoQ+46.29%）; 毛利率为 26.85%（YoY+5.07pcts， QoQ+2.25pcts）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 20,388 | 26,780 | 38,615 | 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jinhe Industrial, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [17]. Core Views - Jinhe Industrial's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 2.444 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.73%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 35.29% to 334 million yuan [1]. - The report highlights improvements in the profitability of sweeteners and growth potential in the semiconductor and synthetic biology sectors [1][7]. - The company is expected to recover from a decline in export volumes of sweeteners, with price increases anticipated due to industry-wide price stabilization efforts [7]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the projected total revenue is 5.484 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 809 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 45.3% compared to 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.98 yuan in 2024 to 1.42 yuan in 2025 [3]. Segment Analysis - The food additives segment reported revenue of 1.175 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 12.12% year-on-year, but with a gross margin increase of 18.10 percentage points to 45.20% [7]. - The basic chemicals segment achieved revenue of 1.055 billion yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year, although the gross margin decreased by 6.82 percentage points to 3.56% [7]. - The report notes a decline in export volumes for sweeteners, particularly sucralose and acesulfame, due to accumulated overseas inventory, but anticipates recovery as inventory levels decrease [7]. Growth Opportunities - Jinhe Industrial has successfully launched an 80,000-ton electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide project and is expanding into various wet electronic chemicals, which is expected to open new growth avenues [7]. - Breakthroughs in the synthesis of high-efficiency steviol glycosides and the successful market introduction of new products are set to enhance the product line in the food additives segment [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2025 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 2%, and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 430 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 17% [1]. - The report highlights the improvement in revenue quality driven by the information services segment, which saw a significant year-over-year growth of 65% [7]. - The company is focusing on AI developments, with several products in the pipeline, indicating a strong potential for future growth [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 5.7 billion, 6.6 billion, and 7.4 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 11%, 16%, and 13% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.1 billion, 2.5 billion, and 2.9 billion yuan for the same period, with year-over-year growth rates of 29%, 21%, and 16% [7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 29.65 yuan, with the current price at 22.30 yuan, indicating a potential upside [3]. Business Segment Analysis - Mobile game revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.88 billion yuan, down 10% year-over-year, while the information services segment generated 660 million yuan, up 65% year-over-year [7]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new games scheduled for release, which is expected to enhance future revenue streams [7]. - The information services business is expected to maintain high growth, with recent agreements indicating a potential revenue of 4.5 billion yuan in the coming quarters [7].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 27.4 [1][9][12] Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in the third-party medical imaging service sector in China, with significant growth potential driven by AI integration and a robust business model [10][11] - The imaging center business serves as the cornerstone of the company's revenue and competitive advantage, accounting for over 60% of total revenue [2][11] - The company aims to achieve 30% of its revenue from overseas markets within five years, leveraging its imaging solutions business [2][11] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2014, operates the largest number of medical imaging centers in China, with 115 centers and 33 valid third-party imaging center licenses as of June 2025 [15][17] - The business is divided into three main segments: imaging center services, imaging solutions services, and Yimai Cloud services, forming a comprehensive ecosystem [17][52] Industry Analysis - The third-party medical imaging service market in China has significant growth potential, with a current penetration rate of only 1% compared to over 40% in the U.S. [8][43] - The market size for medical imaging services in China is projected to grow from CNY 270.9 billion in 2023 to CNY 661.5 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 13.6% [32][34] Business Model and Competitive Advantage - The imaging center business is the company's main revenue source and a key competitive moat, with various types of centers catering to different market needs [55][56] - The company has a strong management team with extensive industry experience, supported by notable institutional investors [22][25] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 10.11 billion in 2025 to CNY 15.88 billion by 2027, with net profits projected to increase significantly during the same period [4][12] - The company anticipates a recovery in 2025 after a decline in 2024 due to macroeconomic factors and increased operational costs [18][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 22.7 CNY, compared to the current price of 19.87 CNY [5][11]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a robust pipeline for future projects, particularly focusing on the progress of IP operations [2][11]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.242 billion CNY (YOY +143%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.229 billion CNY (YOY +372%) [2][11]. - The film business generated 3.1 billion CNY in H1 2025 (YOY +219%), driven by the success of the blockbuster "Nezha: The Devil's Child" [11]. - The company is actively transforming into an "IP creator and operator," expanding its content production capabilities and exploring various derivative product avenues [11]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to have total revenue of 4.256 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 168.4% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.378 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 714.4% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.81 CNY in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24 [4][11]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 55.797 billion CNY [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector to continue adjusting, with a focus on the increase in allocation by insurance funds to stocks and bonds [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of consumer loans and business loans in stimulating consumption and stabilizing the housing market, with specific fiscal subsidy policies introduced to support these areas [2][7]. - The banking sector has experienced a decline of 1.62% from August 1 to August 29, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.0 percentage points, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards technology-related sectors [15][25]. - The report emphasizes the need for structural adjustments in bank credit, suggesting that the quality of credit is more important than the total amount, with a focus on direct financing becoming a significant pillar of social financing [6][11]. Monthly Market Performance - In August 2025, the banking sector saw a cumulative decline of 1.62%, ranking last among 31 first-level industries in terms of performance [15][21]. - The 10-year government bond yield increased from 1.71% at the beginning of August to 1.84% by August 29, while the 1-year bond yield remained stable around 1.37% [25][26]. - The overall valuation of the banking sector is at a historically low level, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.61 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.58, indicating potential investment opportunities [6][11]. Banking Fundamentals Tracking - The report tracks monthly data indicating that the banking sector's credit structure is expected to improve, with a focus on optimizing the allocation of credit rather than merely increasing the total volume [11][12]. - The insurance fund utilization balance reached 36.23 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a significant increase in both stock and bond allocations [8][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, particularly emphasizing the potential of regional banks with solid fundamentals [11][12]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of policy changes on the banking sector's asset quality and credit growth, suggesting that banks with robust risk control and customer bases may have greater valuation flexibility [11][12].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Fixed asset investment data in July showed weakness, indicating a need for structural adjustment in the economy[2] - China's GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with a target of 5% for the full year, suggesting a manageable outlook for the second half[2] - Historical data indicates that a significant reduction in industrial long-term loans in 2016 was a key factor in the economic recovery, despite weak financial data[12] Group 2: Market Strategy and Trends - Current market conditions show no significant overheating, with market capitalization expanding faster than trading volume[4] - A-share valuations remain reasonable, with expectations of performance recovery driven by inflation[17] - The average return of equity mixed funds was 2.82%, while stock ETFs averaged 2.85% this week, indicating positive fund performance[36] Group 3: Fixed Income and Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield is seen as having value around 1.8%, with limited upward movement expected in the near term[23] - The bond market is currently not favorable for trading, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for better opportunities[24] - Recent bond issuance has seen yields priced between 3% and 6%, reflecting the impact of new tax policies[22] Group 4: U.S. Inflation Risks - U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise, potentially exceeding 3% in the second half of the year[28] - Household consumption capacity remains strong, indicating low recession risks despite rising inflation[26] - The employment market shows signs of recovery, which could further support consumer spending and economic stability[27]