Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][16]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 225 to 260 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 115.36% to 148.86%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be between 223 to 258 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 154.59% to 194.64% [1]. - The company has successfully optimized its delivery capacity through the production of fundraising projects, leading to significant improvements in profitability. The overseas projects are progressing smoothly, contributing to a robust revenue growth [7]. - The company has maintained a high level of new orders, with the total new signed orders for 2022, 2023, and 2024 being approximately 3.775 billion, 4.1 billion, and 4 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong future revenue and profit support [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2,419 million yuan in 2024 to 2,937 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 21.4% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 261 million yuan in 2024 to 389 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 48.9% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.63 yuan in 2024 to 2.43 yuan in 2025 [3]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has made significant breakthroughs in the petrochemical industry, securing several large-scale air separation unit orders, which enhances its competitive edge in high-end product markets [7]. - The company has strategically expanded into overseas markets, with overseas revenue accounting for 42.4% and 39.1% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, significantly higher than the industry average [7]. - The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in the air separation equipment industry, combining high-quality German standards with local business practices, which is expected to drive future growth [7].

公司研究 华夏航空（002928）2025 年中报业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 1H25 年预计实现盈利中值 2.6 亿，同比增长近 9 倍，看好公司盈利持续兑现 1）1H25：2025 年上半年预计归母净利 2.2~2.9 亿元，同比+741%~1009%，中 值为 2.55 亿元（1H24 归母净利 0.26 亿元，同比+875%）；扣非归母净利 2.0~2.8 亿元，同比+1493%~2130%，中值为 2.4 亿元（1H24 扣非归母利润 0.13 亿元， 同比+1812%）；按照区间中值测算，非经常性损益约 0.15 亿元。 2）25Q2：预计归母净利 1.4~2.1 亿元，中值为 1.7 亿元（24Q2 归母净利 0.01 亿元，25Q1 归母净利 0.82 亿元）；扣非归母净利 1.2~2.0 亿元，中值为 1.6 亿 元（24Q2 扣非归母净亏损 0.03 亿元，25Q1 扣非归母净利 0.76 亿元）；按照区 间中值测算，非经常性损益约 0.09 亿元。 证 券 研 究 报 告 我们看好公司经营端不断改善，叠加油价中枢下移推动成本减负，盈利有望持 续兑现。1、盈利预测：我们维持 25~27 年 ...

Group 1: Macro Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion, up from 2.29 trillion previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% compared to 8.7% before[1] - M2 growth was 8.3% year-on-year, an increase from 7.9% previously, while new M1 (新口径) grew by 4.6% compared to 2.3% before[1] - The current market logic reflects a "look at stocks, act like bonds" approach rather than a dual bull market for stocks and bonds, primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Policy Implications - The current liquidity easing is mainly driven by policy rather than economic improvement, leading to strong market expectations for further central bank easing[2] - The central bank's probability of further easing is decreasing unless triggered by significant adverse economic events or market shocks[2] - Future central bank actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both stock and bond markets[2] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - In June, corporate loans increased by 1.77 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 trillion, while household loans rose by 597.6 billion[1] - The social financing scale in June showed an increase of 4.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, reflecting a significant rise in government bond issuance[1] - The total amount of deposits increased by 3.21 trillion in June, with household deposits rising by 2.47 trillion, indicating a strong inflow into the banking system[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in social financing scale, with June's new social financing reaching 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, and a social financing stock growth rate of 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2][6]. - New RMB loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by strong short-term loans, especially from enterprises [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the banking sector's configuration opportunities, suggesting that overall positions in banks are likely to increase due to medium to long-term capital inflows and public fund reforms [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In June, the new social financing scale was 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, and the social financing stock growth rate reached 8.9% [2][6]. - New RMB loans totaled 2.24 trillion yuan in June, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in short-term loans [6][7]. Credit and Financing Trends - The report notes that credit has reversed its weakening trend from the second quarter, supported mainly by short-term loans to enterprises and improvements in household short-term loans [6][7]. - The increase in M1 growth rate to 4.6% in June and M2 growth rate rising to 8.3% reflects enhanced liquidity in the market [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the banking sector for investment, highlighting the ongoing mid-term investment value of major banks and the potential for absolute returns from banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality [6][7]. - Specific banks to watch include state-owned large banks and stable joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank, as well as regional banks with high provisioning coverage [6][7].

锦江航运（601083）2025 年中报业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 25Q2 预计盈利中值 4.4 亿，同比+127%，业 绩延续高增 ❖ 公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预增公告： 1、财务数据： 2025H1：预计实现归母净利 7.8~8.1 亿元，同比+146%~155%，中值为 7.95 亿 元，同比+151%；扣非归母净利 7.6~7.9 亿元，同比+160%~171%，中值为 7.75 亿元，同比+165%。 25Q2：预计实现归母净利 4.2~4.5 亿元，同比+119%~135%，中值为 4.38 亿元， 同比+127%；扣非归母净利 4.1~4.4 亿元，同比+126~142%，中值为 4.28 亿元， 同比+134%。 ❖ 2、市场表现： 25H1 CCFI 日本同比+29%，CCFI 东南亚同比+29%，TWFI 台湾同比+26%。 25Q2 CCFI 日本同比+33%，CCFI 东南亚同比+11%，TWFI 台湾同比+30%。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, credit performance was not weak, with corporate short - term loans being the main support and bills "yielding space" for credit. Supported by government bond issuance, the social financing growth rate remained high. Due to the low - base effect after the ban on manual interest supplements last year and corporate sector's redemption of wealth management products, M1 and M2 growth rates rebounded significantly [1][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit: Bills "Yield Space" to Corporate Short - term Loans - **Resident Sector**: In June, resident short - term loans increased by 26.21 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, rebounding from the previous month due to the shopping festival effect. Resident medium - and long - term credit increased by 33.53 billion yuan, 1.51 billion yuan more than the same period last year. However, the year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 8.6%, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous month, indicating a weaker sprint than last year [1][12]. - **Corporate Sector**: In June, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, 40 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and the growth rate remained around 7.1%. Corporate short - term loans increased significantly, with an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan, 490 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Bill financing decreased by 410.9 billion yuan, 317.6 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][14][20]. Social Financing: Government Bonds Still Provide Support, and Corporate Bond Issuance Willingness Continues - **Government Bonds**: In June, government bond issuance was large, with an increase of 1.35 trillion yuan, 503.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. According to the current issuance plan, government bonds may still support social financing in July, with a net financing of about 1.4 trillion yuan and a year - on - year increase of about 700 billion yuan. From August to the end of the year, it may turn to a year - on - year decrease [3][23]. - **Corporate Bonds**: In June, corporate bond issuance was still strong, with an increase of 24.22 billion yuan, 3.22 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new policy on science and technology innovation bonds may drive corporate bond financing. Unaccepted bills decreased by 18.99 billion yuan, close to the same period last year and at a seasonal low, indicating a continuous conversion from off - balance - sheet bills to on - balance - sheet [3][27]. Deposits: End - of - Quarter Deposit Rush, Significant Increase in M1 and M2 Growth Rates - **M1**: In June, the new - caliber M1 increased by 5 trillion yuan, 2.6 trillion yuan more than the same period in 2024, at a seasonally high level. The year - on - year growth rate rose from 2.3% to 4.6% [4][30]. - **M2**: Among the M2 components, non - bank deposits were significantly lower than the seasonal level, while corporate deposits increased significantly as the main support. Corporate customers' redemption of wealth management products helped banks boost general deposits at the end of the quarter. In June, inter - bank deposits decreased by 520 billion yuan, 340 billion yuan less than the same period in 2024. Corporate deposits increased by 1.7773 trillion yuan, 777.3 billion yuan more than last year. After the cross - quarter in July, corporate sector deposits may flow out, disturbing the bank's liability side [4][35].

证 券 研 究 报 告 风电行业周报（20250707-20250711） 周内山东海风招标 0.6GW，陆风中标均价达 推荐（维持） 1793 元/kW 1）山东：7 月 8 日，华能山东 L 场址（504MW）基础沉桩施工完成。 2）广西：7 月 10 日，广西钦州海风项目（900MW）220kV/66kV 海缆和 220kV 陆缆及附件开标，由亨通预中标，金额为 8.2 亿元。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 东方电缆 | 50.19 | 2.29 | 2.94 | 3.65 | 21.90 | 17.10 | 13.76 | 4.27 | 推荐 | | 中天科技 | 14.15 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 1.29 | 13.61 | 12 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆、南向资金持续涌入 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年7月14日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 1）资金供给端扩张，杠杆资金净流入持续高位，股票型ETF净流入由负转正； 2）资金需求端股权融资小幅增加，南向资金近两月维持周均规模百亿以上净流入，累计净流入近1500亿。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：建材+39pct至49%、光伏+32pct至54%、钢铁+25pct至51%；下行行业主要 为：有色-8pct至23%、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, exports more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US negotiation easing. In the short term, the export resilience remains and the July reading may be decent. In the medium term, there is high uncertainty in tariff policies after mid - August, and the overall exports in the second half of the year may face a slowdown risk. The bond market may focus more on domestic policy responses, and the disturbance of the "broad credit" sentiment in the third quarter may increase[6][33] - In June, the import growth rate turned positive, mainly due to the low - base effect and price improvement. However, the import volume of upstream energy products weakened and the growth rate of downstream automobile imports slowed down, indicating that domestic demand still needs policy support. The data verification in the third quarter is crucial, and policies may be strengthened to stabilize demand[6][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Export: The Logic of "Rushing to Export" Strengthens, and Transit Trade Cools Down - **Overall Situation**: In June, the export growth rate was +5.8%, 1 percentage point higher than that in May. The export in June more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation easing in mid - May. The "rushing to export" logic continued to support export resilience, and the appreciation of the RMB also boosted the export reading[5][9][18] - **By Commodity Type** - **Labor - Intensive Consumer Goods**: The year - on - year decline of exports of four types of non - durable consumer goods (clothing, footwear, luggage, and toys) narrowed to around 0%, with a month - on - month increase of 11.2%. Toys performed strongly, possibly reflecting the pre - release of the peak export season for Christmas supplies[2][20] - **Intermediate Goods for Production**: The combined year - on - year growth of five types of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +12.2%, driving export growth by 1.4 percentage points. In the short term, intermediate goods exports are expected to maintain high growth[2][21] - **Durable Consumer Goods**: The combined drag of mobile phones and laptops on exports was about 0.4 percentage points, an improvement from May. The contribution of automobile exports increased for three consecutive months, driving June's export growth by 0.5 percentage points[2][24] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In June, the year - on - year decline of exports to the US narrowed by 18.4 percentage points to - 16.1%. Exports to the EU and Japan increased by 7.6% and 6.6% respectively. The weight of exports to the US rebounded to 11.7%, higher than that in April and May but still lower than the level in the first quarter of this year[3][28] - **ASEAN**: The proportion of exports to ASEAN declined to 17.9% in June, the lowest since March this year, as direct exports crowded out transit trade demand[3][28] - **Outlook**: In early August, the "reciprocal tariff" exemption period for multiple parties by the US will end. It is expected that the "rushing to export" in July will continue to be released at an accelerated pace, and the year - on - year export reading may not be weak. Leading indicators suggest that the export growth rate in July may further increase[5][12][33] 3.2 Import: Price Recovery, Low - Base Effect, and the Year - on - Year Growth of Imports Turns Positive - **Overall Situation**: In June, the import amount increased by 1.1% year - on - year, turning positive for the first time since December last year, mainly due to the low - base effect and the improvement of bulk commodity spot prices. However, the month - on - month import decreased by 1.2%, weaker than the seasonal average[4][34] - **By Commodity Type** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The year - on - year import of five types of upstream bulk commodities decreased by 11.4%, dragging down the import by 3.1 percentage points. The weakening of import volume may be the main drag[35] - **Intermediate Goods**: The combined year - on - year growth of four types of intermediate goods was +8.6%, 4.7 percentage points better than that in May, driving the year - on - year import growth by about 1.9 percentage points[35] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The combined year - on - year import of three types of consumer goods decreased by 21.0%, and the drag on imports increased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month[35]

自 2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经委员会正式提出依法依规治理企业低价无序竞 争，推动落后产能有序退出，反内卷政策持续发力，上周汽车及纺织服饰行业 "反内卷"接力落地，中汽协秘书长指出"要综合治理'内卷式'竞争"，汽 车价格战风险下降叠加行业去库，制造板块转债估值再度抬升，截至 7 月 11 日拟合溢价率较前周五+0.45pct，表现较其他板块更为强势。 权益市场强力驱动，强赎集中触发。6 月底自"反内卷"行情启动以来，万得 可转债正股加权指数上涨 7.88%，多数转债进一步累计赎回条款触发天数，合 计 10 只转债已公告赎回等待退市，共计 50 只转债具有赎回累计天数。截至 7 月 11 日，7 月强赎概率 62.0%，位于 2021 年以来第二高点，较 2025 上半年平 均概率大幅抬升。在全市场平均存续期进一步拉长的背景下，强赎转债延续 "老龄化"特征，但较 2024 年水平小幅回落，部分"次新券"同样积极赎回。 临期转债博弈空间缩窄。在权益市场高波的环境下，博弈临期转债赎回催化其 溢价率抬升相对更显著，0-1 年及 1-2 年剩余期限转债拟合溢价率分别较 6 月 底抬升 1.94pct 和 1.8 ...