公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 天元宠物（301335）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 宠物食品增速亮眼，库存压力基本释放 目标价：22 元 事项： ❖ 公司披露 2024 年年报，全年实现营收 27.64 亿元，同比增长 35.69%，实现归 母净利润 4596.05 万元，同比减少 40.13%，扣非归母净利润 3057.64 万元，同 比减少 54.16%，EPS 为 0.37 元/股。单 4 季度实现营收 7.29 亿元，同比增长 43.50%，归母净利润-851.44 万元，同比减少 134.67%，扣非归母净利润-1097.08 万元，同比减少 160.56%，EPS 为-0.07 元/股。 评论： ❖ 境内境外业务双增，宠物食品增速亮眼。1）分行业来看，公司宠物用品营收 为 15.30 亿元，同比+15.08%；宠物食品营收为 11.76 亿元，同比+70.80%；其 他业务营收 0.58 亿元，宠物食品业务带动整体收入高速增长。2）分地区来看， 公司境外营收 13.32 亿元，同比+18.40%；国内营收 14.31 亿元，同比+57.03%， 国内业务占比持续提升。 ❖ 2024 年公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the beer industry, highlighting potential for growth in the upcoming season [2][6]. Core Insights - The beer industry is experiencing a restructuring of consumption scenarios, with a general demand slowdown but a persistent focus on quality-price ratio by consumers. The report notes that while traditional dining and nightlife channels are underperforming, instant retail channels are emerging [7][11]. - The report forecasts that the leading companies in the industry will benefit from inventory reduction and cost advantages, leading to potential profit releases in 2025 [6][45]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends: Scenario Restructuring and Growth Shift - The overall consumption in the beer industry is subdued, with a shift towards more fragmented consumption scenarios. The demand for quality remains strong despite the overall market slowdown [10][11]. - The high-end segment is seeing a mixed performance, with the mid-to-high price range (8-10 CNY) showing robust growth, while the low-end segment is declining [16][17]. Performance of Leading Companies: Operational Differentiation and Inventory Management - The leading companies are focusing on inventory reduction and improving channel health amidst a challenging sales environment. The report indicates that regional breweries are outperforming national brands in terms of sales growth [24][29]. - Financial performance varies among leading companies, with some experiencing pressure on pricing and profits due to economic conditions, while others are managing to maintain stable growth [26][27]. 2025 Outlook: Lean Operations and Recovery Potential - The report anticipates a recovery in sales for leading companies as they enter 2025 with reduced inventory levels. The cost advantages are expected to enhance profit margins [35][36]. - The upcoming peak season is projected to catalyze sales growth, especially for companies with healthy inventory levels and strong operational momentum [37][38]. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Key Players - The report recommends focusing on Qingdao Beer as the top pick, followed by China Resources Beer and Yanjing Beer, with a watch on Chongqing Beer and Zhujiang Beer. The rationale includes their strong market positions and potential for profit growth in the upcoming season [6][45].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommendation," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [61]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of Kuaishou's Keling 2.0, which aims to transform video creation in the AGI era, with a global user base exceeding 22 million as of April 15, 2025 [7][43]. - Keling AI has undergone over 20 iterations since its initial release in June 2024, showcasing significant advancements in its model architecture and capabilities [7][8]. - The commercial potential of Keling AI is emphasized, with expectations of becoming a new revenue engine for Kuaishou, particularly through cost reductions in video marketing materials by 60%-70% [43][44]. Summary by Sections Product Overview - Keling 2.0 was officially launched on April 15, 2025, as a new infrastructure for video creation, aiming to enhance Kuaishou's position in the short video production and consumption community [7][8]. Update Highlights - Significant updates include a complete overhaul of the foundational model and the introduction of multi-modal editing capabilities [8][9]. - The new DiT architecture improves the alignment of visual and textual modalities, while the redesigned VAE enhances dynamic transitions in complex scenes [9][19]. - Multi-modal editing allows users to modify videos based on a combination of video, text, and images, enabling more creative and flexible content creation [29][30]. Commercialization Potential - Keling AI is positioned as the first paid AI video tool for consumers in China, with a membership system that has shown promising revenue generation [44][48]. - The report notes that Keling AI has generated over 1 billion RMB in revenue by February 2025, indicating its growing significance in Kuaishou's overall revenue structure [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][20]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue reaching 3.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.53%, and a net profit of 429 million yuan, up 6.49% year-on-year. The fourth quarter showed significant growth, with revenue of 941 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41.66% [1][3]. - The report highlights strong performance in the charging pile and power quality sectors, while the energy storage business slightly underperformed expectations. The company is optimistic about its development in the AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) field [1][7]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue of 3.036 billion yuan, net profit of 429 million yuan, and a net profit margin of 14.0% [1][3]. - **Future Projections**: Expected revenue growth rates of 14.5% in 2025, 17.5% in 2026, and 16.4% in 2027. Projected net profits are 551 million yuan in 2025, 668 million yuan in 2026, and 797 million yuan in 2027 [3][8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report sets a target price of 44 yuan for 2025, with a current price of 29.18 yuan, implying a price-to-earnings ratio of 25x for 2025 [3][7]. Business Segment Performance - **Power Quality Equipment**: Revenue of 603 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.11%, with a gross margin of 54.23% [7]. - **Energy Storage Equipment**: Revenue of 857 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.80%, with a gross margin of 29.64% [7]. - **Charging Pile Business**: Revenue of 1.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.04%, maintaining a high gross margin of 38.15% [7]. - **Battery Testing Equipment**: Revenue of 296 million yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.93%, with a gross margin of 39.35% [7]. Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from overseas expansion in the charging pile market, with established contacts in Europe and Asia. This is anticipated to enhance both revenue and gross margins [7]. - The AIDC sector is projected to drive demand for power quality products, with the company holding a significant market share in this area [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the beer industry, highlighting the potential for growth in the upcoming season [2][6]. Core Insights - The beer industry is experiencing a restructuring of consumption scenarios, with a general demand slowdown but a persistent focus on quality-price ratios by consumers. The report notes that while traditional dining and nightlife channels are underperforming, instant retail channels are emerging [7][11]. - The report anticipates a recovery in sales for 2025, driven by inventory reduction and cost advantages, with a projected increase in gross margins for leading companies [6][35]. Industry Overview - **Trends and Review**: The industry is facing a demand slowdown, with the CR6 total sales estimated to decline by approximately 4.5%. The report indicates that while the overall ton price remains stable, leading companies are experiencing varied performance due to high-end product strategies and operational reforms [7][10]. - **High-End Market Dynamics**: The report highlights that while the overall ton price growth is slowing, the mid-to-high-end segments are thriving. The next-highest price tier (8-10 CNY) shows strong growth, with brands like Yanjing U8 and Zhujiang 97 Pure Draft experiencing significant increases in sales [16][17]. - **Market Structure**: The report notes a shift in market share dynamics, particularly in the southeastern coastal regions where Budweiser is losing ground to brands like Heineken and Zhujiang. In contrast, northern markets are seeing increased competition for mid-tier products [25][26]. Performance of Leading Companies - **Financial Review**: The report indicates that leading companies are experiencing differentiated performance, with regional players like Yanjing and Zhujiang outperforming national brands due to their strong local market presence and product offerings [24][26]. - **Operational Strategies**: Leading companies are focusing on inventory management and diversifying their product lines to adapt to changing consumer preferences. The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining healthy channel inventories and enhancing product quality [29][31]. 2025 Outlook - **Sales Recovery**: The report forecasts a sales recovery in 2025, with leading companies expected to benefit from reduced inventory levels and continued cost advantages. The anticipated sales acceleration is supported by a healthy inventory status and a favorable seasonal environment [36][37]. - **Profitability Projections**: The report estimates that gross margins for leading companies could improve by over 1 percentage point, driven by cost reductions and operational efficiencies [38][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Qingdao Beer as the top pick, followed by China Resources and Yanjing, with a watch on Chongqing Beer and Zhujiang. The rationale includes the expected sales acceleration in the upcoming season and the healthy inventory levels of these companies [6][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the securities industry, expecting significant performance improvements driven by brokerage and proprietary trading businesses in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that 12 listed securities firms have released performance forecasts for Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profits due to active trading and a low base from the previous year. For instance, Dongfang Securities reported a net profit of 1.44 billion yuan, up 62.1% year-on-year, while Guoyuan Securities and Xingye Securities also showed substantial growth [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of several firms, with Guotai Junan expected to achieve a net profit between 11.2 billion and 12.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 350% to 400% [2][9]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - 12 listed securities firms have provided performance forecasts, with significant year-on-year growth in net profits. Notable figures include: - Guotai Junan: 112.0 to 124.5 million yuan, up 350% to 400% - CITIC Securities: 65.5 million yuan, up 32% - Huatai Securities: 34.4 to 36.7 million yuan, up 50% to 60% [2][9]. Key Company Earnings Predictions - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with the following highlights: - GF Securities: EPS of 1.45 yuan for 2025E, PE of 10.51 - CITIC Securities: EPS of 1.82 yuan for 2025E, PE of 13.79 - Huatai Securities: EPS of 1.91 yuan for 2025E, PE of 8.10 [4]. Market Data - The report provides basic industry data, indicating a total market capitalization of 34,877.22 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 28,752.01 billion yuan [5]. - The absolute performance of the securities sector over the past 12 months is reported at 26.9%, with a relative performance of 19.5% [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on supply-side reforms and industry consolidation for securities sector investments, recommending stocks in the following order: GF Securities, CICC, CITIC, Huatai, Dongfang, and Guojun, while also suggesting to pay attention to China Galaxy, Hualin, Xiangcai, and Jian Investment [8].

Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is 5.4%, consistent with the previous value, while nominal GDP growth is 4.6%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth for Q1 is 4.2%, up from 2.6% in the previous quarter[3] - Retail sales growth in March is 5.9%, an increase from 4.0% in February, with cumulative growth for Q1 at 4.6%[4] Group 2: Policy Effects and Consumer Behavior - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted durable goods sales, with March growth at 12.8%, up from 3.4%[11] - Consumer spending inclination in Q1 is 63.1%, slightly down from 63.3% in the same period last year[20] - Rural migrant workers' average monthly income increased by 3.3%, lower than the urban disposable income growth of 4.9%[27] Group 3: Investment and Real Estate - Equipment investment grew by 19% in Q1, contributing 64.6% to total investment growth[11] - Real estate investment decreased by 9.9% in Q1, with a significant inventory of unsold properties remaining[13] - The housing price index in first-tier cities has stabilized, with a year-on-year decline narrowing from -10.7% to -4.1%[11]

债券研究 超长期特别国债计划落地，后续怎么看？ 2025 年 4 月 16 日，财政部公告《关于公布 2025 年一般国债、超长期特别国 债发行有关安排的通知》（财办库〔2025〕74 号），正式确定年内 1.3 万亿超长 期特别国债的发行安排。 1、超长期特别国债供给节奏怎么看？ 2025 年超长期特别国债计划进度较 2024 年同期更快，1.3 万亿安排在 4-10 月 份发完，2024 年是 5-11 月。 （1）分期限上来看，支数安排 20 年:30 年:50 年=6:12:3，与 2024 年差异不大， 仍以 30 年为主，仅 20 年安排少 1 期。 （2）若各期限规模占比和单只规模的"大小月"节奏参考 2024 年，我们预计 超长期特别国债的发行高峰在 5 月和 8 月（单月达到 2500 亿附近），其次是 6 月和 9 月（单月达到 2200 亿附近)，4 月和 7 月发行规模或在 1000 亿-2000 亿 之间，10 月发行接近尾声。 2、后续政府债节奏预测 （1）国债：二季度净融资或为 2 万亿，包括 9100 亿普通国债和 1.1 万亿特别 国债，4 月国债在到期压力下净融资为 220 ...

事项： 评论： 证 券 研 究 报 告 商贸零售行业定期报告 2025 年 3 月社零数据点评：景气度回暖，商 推荐（维持） 品增速快于餐饮 行业研究 商贸零售 2025 年 04 月 16 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨澜 邮箱：yanglan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070008 证券分析师：姚婧 邮箱：yaojing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 106 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 8,872.25 | 0.92 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 8,122.46 | 1.07 | 相对指数表现 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❑ 社零总额：2024 年 3 月社零 40940 亿元，名义同比+5.9%（较前值+1.9pct）， 高于预期，家用电器、通讯器材增速亮眼；除汽车以外的消费品零售额同比 +6.0%。1~3 月社零 124671 亿元，名义同比+4.6%，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额同比+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry (603027) [1][6] Core Views - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 3.073 billion, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with net profit at 514 million, down 3.1% year-on-year [6][7] - The company is facing short-term pressures but is actively adjusting its operations, with expectations for gradual improvement in revenue in the second half of 2025 [6][7] - The target price is set at 14.7 yuan, with the current price at 11.77 yuan, indicating a potential upside [2][6] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3,073 million, 3,032 million, 3,289 million, and 3,529 million respectively [2] - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at -4.2% for 2024, -1.3% for 2025, 8.5% for 2026, and 7.3% for 2027 [2] - Net profit estimates are 514 million for 2024, 543 million for 2025, 596 million for 2026, and 655 million for 2027, with growth rates of -3.1%, 5.6%, 9.8%, and 9.9% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 0.50 yuan for 2024, 0.53 yuan for 2025, 0.58 yuan for 2026, and 0.64 yuan for 2027 [2] Operational Insights - The company has experienced a decline in revenue due to increased competition and a high base from the previous year, with specific product categories like soy sauce and vinegar seeing significant drops [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 5.0 yuan per 10 shares, yielding a dividend rate of 4.13% [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at 37.2%, with improvements expected in the latter half of the year due to cost reductions and product adjustments [6][7]