Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 195.81 CNY, indicating an expected upside of 34% [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 624 billion CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 81% to 29.4 billion CNY [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in sales volume, reaching 130,000 vehicles, up 7% year-on-year and 90% quarter-on-quarter, driven primarily by the new model, the Wanjie M8 [8]. - The Wanjie brand has established itself as a leading high-end SUV brand, with the Wanjie M8 becoming a best-selling model in its price range [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025E, total revenue is projected to be 182.17 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.5% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 9.25 billion CNY in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 55.5% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 5.66 CNY for 2025E, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 [4]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company anticipates sales volumes of 560,000, 790,000, and 910,000 vehicles for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 42%, and 15% respectively [8]. - The recent IPO in Hong Kong is expected to accelerate the company's international expansion efforts, enhancing its growth potential in overseas markets [8].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the concept of "bull market thinking," which has become a frequent topic among institutional investors, focusing on strategies derived from over 70,000 active equity fund quarterly reports from 2008 to 2021 [2][3] - The report identifies ten key thoughts that encapsulate the essence of "bull market thinking," including shifts in investment strategies, the role of leverage, and the importance of maintaining high positions during a bull market [2][3] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should shift from "conservative defense" to "aggressive offense," with flexible adjustments in positions and structures to capture market opportunities [3][4] - In the early stages of a bull market, valuation recovery drives the market, while profitability determines the sustainability and height of the bull market [5][6] - Maintaining a high position is more critical than timing the market during a bull market, as missing out on overall market gains poses a greater risk than potential pullbacks [9][10] Group 2: Leverage and Market Dynamics - Leverage funds act as both an "accelerator" for bull markets and a "risk amplifier," significantly impacting market volatility and dynamics [7][8] - Different types of incremental funds have profound effects on the valuation system during bull markets, with foreign capital and public funds influencing market trends and valuations [10][11] Group 3: Sector Focus and Market Trends - Identifying and focusing on the main industry lines during each bull market is crucial for achieving excess returns, as these lines reflect macro policies and economic transformations [11][12] - The distinction between "storytelling" and "performance" is essential, as different bull market drivers yield varying returns based on market conditions [13][14] Group 4: Market Adaptation and Valuation - Investors must respect market dynamics and be willing to adjust their strategies in response to changing conditions, emphasizing the importance of continuous decision optimization [15][16] - Bull markets can reshape valuation systems, but caution is advised against "pseudo-growth" stocks, with a focus on companies that demonstrate solid fundamentals [17][18] Group 5: Quality and Pricing - The definition of quality companies remains unchanged, but the requirements for "good prices" are increasingly stringent, necessitating a careful selection of stocks that offer both quality and reasonable valuations [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][8][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved steady revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 502 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.01%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased significantly by 91.90% to 3 million yuan [2][3]. - The company's EDA software sales contributed 414 million yuan, growing by 7.41% year-on-year, while the technical services segment saw a notable increase of 28.37%, generating 67 million yuan [2][3]. - The company's global expansion efforts are showing positive results, with overseas revenue reaching 55 million yuan, a substantial increase of 90.39% year-on-year, indicating strong competitiveness in international markets [2][3]. - High R&D investment remains a priority, with 365 million yuan allocated in the first half of 2025, resulting in a R&D expense ratio of 72.84%. This investment supports the launch of seven new core EDA tools and the development of nine key solutions [2][3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry, aiming for comprehensive tool coverage in design by 2025, and focusing on advanced technologies like 3DIC and Chiplet [2][3]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 1.599 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 30.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 200 million yuan, reflecting an 82.5% increase [5][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.20 yuan in 2024 to 0.37 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 560 to 307 [5][9]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 5.629 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.612 billion yuan by 2027, with a steady increase in equity attributable to shareholders [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Software (600536) [2][8] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its core business performance, with a focus on its "OS + Database" dual-core strategy [2][8] - In the first half of 2025, China Software achieved a revenue of 2.242 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.01%. The total profit reached 17 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 75 million yuan, significantly narrowing the loss by 72.67% [2][8] - The company has effectively controlled costs, leading to a notable improvement in operational quality, with the sales net profit margin improving from -13.72% to -0.11% year-on-year [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.835 billion yuan, 6.436 billion yuan, and 6.806 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.2%, 10.3%, and 5.7% respectively [4][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 92 million yuan, 241 million yuan, and 322 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 122.3%, 160.9%, and 33.8% respectively [4][8] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 9.127 billion yuan in 2025 to 11.786 billion yuan in 2027 [9] Market Position and Strategy - China Software is positioned as a key player in the software industry, particularly in the development of operating systems and databases, which are crucial components of the national "PKS" independent ecosystem [8] - The launch of the Galaxy Kirin Operating System V11, which is based on the Linux 6.6 kernel, highlights the company's commitment to innovation and its strategic importance in various sectors, including finance and government [8]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 政策双周报（0821-0905）：3M 买断式逆回购 等量续作，第二批科创债 ETF 上报 ❖ 宏观基调："人工智能+"行动意见发布，"反内卷"政策继续推进 （1）人工智能：8 月 26 日，国务院印发《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动 的意见》；8 月 29 日，发改委有关负责人表示发展"人工智能+"需要坚决避 免无序竞争和一拥而上，未来 1-2 年是人工智能落地的关键窗口期。 （2）反内卷：中国光伏行业协会倡议进一步加强行业自律；《互联网平台价格 行为规则（征求意见稿）》发布；河南省内焦企实行自主限产。 （3）促消费：8 月 22 日，国常会指出要进一步强化财税金融等政策支持，创 新消费投资场景，优化消费投资环境，综合施策释放内需潜力；8 月 27 日， 商务部表示要出台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施。 （4）十五五：8 月 25 日，发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会，听取"十五五" 时期扩内需稳就业意见建议。 ❖ 财政政策：完善增值税留抵退税，优化社保资金承接主体免税措施 （1）留底退税：8 月 22 日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于完善增值税期末留 抵退税政策的公告》，自 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 215 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 33 times for 2025 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in its 2025 mid-year report, achieving a revenue of 1.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 340 million yuan, up 88.0% year-on-year [2][8]. - The growth was primarily driven by the electric golf cart segment, which is expected to see significant growth, particularly in North America, where the number of dealers has exceeded 230 [2][8]. - The company has entered a strategic partnership with Yushu Technology to explore new growth avenues and enhance its overseas production capabilities [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.71 billion yuan, with Q2 revenue at 1.07 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year growth of 23.3% [2][8]. - The net profit for Q2 was 260 million yuan, reflecting a 95.3% increase year-on-year, indicating strong profitability driven by the core golf cart business [2][8]. - The company's gross margin improved by 6.6 percentage points to 41.6% in Q2, while the net profit margin increased by 8.8 percentage points to 23.8% [2][8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3.91 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.4% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 716 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 66.0% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 6.56 yuan for 2025, increasing to 11.11 yuan by 2027 [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.569 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 564 million yuan, down 40.16% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights an increase in the proportion of revenue from channel sales and a significant push in overseas expansion [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand perception among end consumers through the launch of a new service brand targeting the C-end market [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Net Profit: The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 28.056 billion yuan in 2024 to 35.858 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% [4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is expected to increase from 0.05 yuan in 2024 to 0.89 yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery after a projected drop in 2025 [4]. - Profitability Ratios: The gross margin is expected to improve from 25.8% in 2024 to 28.6% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [9]. Revenue Breakdown - Sales Channels: In the first half of 2025, retail and engineering channels contributed 51 billion yuan and 63 billion yuan to revenue, respectively, with channel sales accounting for 84.06% of total revenue [2]. - Product Categories: Revenue from waterproof membranes, coatings, and mortar products showed declines, but new product categories demonstrated resilience with a 46.97% increase in revenue from engineering construction [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Global Expansion: The company is accelerating its overseas supply chain and channel development, with significant operations established in the US, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Canada [2]. - New Service Brand: The launch of the "Yuhong" brand aims to enhance consumer engagement and drive collaboration with manufacturers [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report projects EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.58, 0.70, and 0.89 yuan per share, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19x, 16x, and 13x [2][4]. - A target price of 14.5 yuan per share is set based on a 25x PE for 2025, reflecting the company's potential for recovery and growth despite current market challenges [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.4 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 9.109 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.70%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.687 billion CNY, up 75.51% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights the acceleration of production base construction, with significant expansions in various locations, including Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Egypt, enhancing the company's global market coverage [2][8]. - The demand for fiberglass products is recovering, supported by increased production in downstream sectors such as electronics and renewable energy, which has positively impacted sales volumes [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 17.415 billion CNY, with a projected growth rate of 9.8% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3.486 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 42.6% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.87 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 times [4][8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the fiberglass industry, benefiting from significant cost advantages and a robust market presence [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to reduce operating expenses, with a decrease in the expense ratio to 8.96% in the first half of 2025 [2][8]. - The company has a strong cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 1.44 billion CNY, marking a 535% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) with a target price of HKD 20, compared to the current price of HKD 13.64 [2][4]. Core Views - Yadea Holdings reported a significant revenue increase of 33.0% year-on-year, achieving revenue of HKD 19.17 billion for the first half of 2025, exceeding the upper limit of previous forecasts [2][7]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 1.65 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.5%, driven by an improved product mix and increased sales of mid-to-high-end products [2][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the new national standards, which will likely drive industry upgrades and concentrate market share among leading firms [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: HKD 28.236 billion - 2025E: HKD 38.167 billion (35.2% growth) - 2026E: HKD 43.230 billion (13.3% growth) - 2027E: HKD 47.103 billion (9.0% growth) [4][8] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: HKD 1.272 billion - 2025E: HKD 3.001 billion (135.8% growth) - 2026E: HKD 3.466 billion (15.5% growth) - 2027E: HKD 3.820 billion (10.2% growth) [4][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: HKD 0.41 - 2025E: HKD 0.96 - 2026E: HKD 1.11 - 2027E: HKD 1.23 [4][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E: 12.9 - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio for 2025E: 3.5 [4][8]. Market Performance - The company has shown a strong recovery in sales, with a total of 8.794 million units sold in the first half of 2025, marking a 37.8% increase year-on-year [7]. - The average selling price (ASP) per unit is approximately HKD 1,491, a slight decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [7]. Strategic Outlook - Yadea Holdings is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing its sales system, particularly in high-end product segments [7]. - The company is well-positioned to leverage the upcoming changes in national standards, which are expected to raise safety and production standards in the industry [7]. Conclusion - The report indicates a robust growth trajectory for Yadea Holdings, supported by favorable market conditions and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing profitability and market share [2][7].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: RNN-LIN - **Model Construction Idea**: Simplify the traditional GRU model by using a linear RNN structure, reducing parameter complexity while maintaining competitive performance[2][17][20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses a linear RNN structure with only a forget gate and an output gate. The hidden state is updated without non-linear activation functions - Equations: $ h_{t} = f_{t} \otimes h_{t-1} + (1 - f_{t}) \otimes c_{t} $ $ y_{t} = o_{t} \otimes h_{t} $ $ f_{t} = Sigmoid(x_{t}W_{f}) $ $ o_{t} = Sigmoid(x_{t}W_{o}) $ $ c_{t} = SiLU(x_{t}W_{c}) $ - $f_{t}$: Forget gate - $o_{t}$: Output gate - $c_{t}$: Candidate state[20][21] - The model reduces parameters by approximately 50% compared to GRU[21] - **Evaluation**: The linear RNN model shows slightly weaker performance than GRU but remains competitive. Adding GLU modules improves its performance significantly[22][53] 2. Model Name: DecompGRN - **Model Construction Idea**: Extend the linear RNN by integrating cross-sectional information directly into the RNN gating mechanism, enabling simultaneous modeling of temporal and cross-sectional data[2][50] - **Model Construction Process**: - The first RNN layer outputs individual stock representations at each time step - Cross-sectional information is incorporated by grouping stocks based on market capitalization and calculating group de-meaned values - The second RNN layer combines temporal and cross-sectional information in the forget and output gates - Equations: $ h_{t} = f_{t} \otimes h_{t-1} + (1 - f_{t}) \otimes c_{t} $ $ y_{t} = o_{t} \otimes h_{t} $ $ f_{t} = Sigmoid(x_{t}W_{f}) $ $ o_{t} = Sigmoid(x_{t}W_{o}) $ $ c_{t} = SiLU(x_{t}W_{c}) $ - $f_{t}$: Forget gate - $o_{t}$: Output gate - $c_{t}$: Candidate state[50][55] - **Evaluation**: DecompGRN outperforms the GRU baseline in terms of RankIC and RankICIR while maintaining only 43% of the GRU's parameter count[74][53] --- Model Backtest Results 1. RNN-LIN - **RankIC**: - CSI All Share: 0.13 - CSI 300: 0.10 - CSI 500: 0.09 - CSI 1000: 0.12[36][37] - **RankICIR**: - CSI All Share: 1.08 - CSI 300: 0.62 - CSI 500: 0.71 - CSI 1000: 0.96[36][37] - **IC Win Rate**: - CSI All Share: 0.88 - CSI 300: 0.74 - CSI 500: 0.78 - CSI 1000: 0.86[36][37] - **Annualized Return (Top Group)**: - CSI All Share: 42.59% - CSI 300: 28.59% - CSI 500: 23.68% - CSI 1000: 32.81%[42] 2. DecompGRN - **RankIC**: - CSI All Share: 0.141 - CSI 300: 0.099 - CSI 500: 0.098 - CSI 1000: 0.127[55][58] - **RankICIR**: - CSI All Share: 1.26 - CSI 300: 0.65 - CSI 500: 0.77 - CSI 1000: 1.08[55][58] - **IC Win Rate**: - CSI All Share: 0.89 - CSI 300: 0.74 - CSI 500: 0.78 - CSI 1000: 0.88[55][58] - **Annualized Return (Top Group)**: - CSI All Share: 57.68% - CSI 300: 31.69% - CSI 500: 26.9% - CSI 1000: 40.35%[57][58] --- Index Enhancement Test Results (DecompGRN) - **Annualized Excess Return**: - CSI 300: 10.24% - CSI 500: 10.05% - CSI 1000: 19.58%[75][85] - **Tracking Error**: - CSI 300: 5.07 - CSI 500: 6.1 - CSI 1000: 6.75[75][85] - **Cumulative Excess Return (as of 2025-08-27)**: - CSI 300: 3.93% - CSI 500: 6.72% - CSI 1000: 18.26%[75][85]