证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运公用|可控核聚变双周报（第 1 期） 可控核聚变行业资本开支加速上行，融资与 推荐（维持） 技术突破催化不断 ❑ 近期核聚变行业在资本开支、产业融资及科技创新等层面不断取得突破。 1、资本开支层面：11 月 12 日，中科院合肥物质院等离子体所新增招标 13.454 亿，涉及燃料循环、氚回收/提取/防护等价值量较高的环节。此次招标象征着 中国的核聚变装置建设处于加速推动阶段，我们持续看好后续核聚变装置的建 设进展加速推进，核聚变产业链卡位关键部件的制造企业有望直接受益。 2、融资层面：11 月 10 日，星能玄光完成数亿元 Pre-A 轮融资，本轮融资由蚂 蚁集团领投，隐山资本、紫金矿业等其他机构跟投。本轮融资将主要用于提升 在建装置性能、部署关键技术及扩大团队规模，以推进公司独特的"场反位形" 聚变能源技术路线。预计星能玄光的在建装置将 2025 年底建成并实现首次放 电。 3、技术突破：11 月 6 日，核工业西南物理研究院自主研发 ITER 朗缪尔探针 完成最终设计评审。该探针主要用于对偏滤器镀金等离子体的温度及密度进行 检测，标志着我国在 ITER 计划关键诊断系统研制 ...

www.hczq.com 证券研究报告 | 医药生物 | 2025年11月15日 华创医药投资观点&研究专题周周谈 · 第150期 从研发日看信立泰CKM创新管线布局 本周专题联系人：朱珂琛 华创医药团队： | 首席分析师 | 郑辰 | | 执业编号：S0360520110002 | 邮箱：zhengchen@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联席首席分析师 | | 刘浩 | 执业编号：S0360520120002 | 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com | | 医疗器械组组长 | | 李婵娟 | 执业编号：S0360520110004 | 邮箱：lichanjuan@hcyjs.com | | 中药和流通组组长 | | 高初蕾 | 执业编号：S0360524070002 | 邮箱：gaochulei@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 王宏雨 | | 执业编号：S0360523080006 | 邮箱：wanghongyu@hcyjs.com | | 分析师 | 朱珂琛 | | 执业编号：S0360524070007 | 邮箱：zhukeche ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20251114 ❖ 市场概况：14 日转债缩量下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.58%、上证综指环比下降 0.97%、深证成 指环比下降 1.93%、创业板指环比下降 2.82%、上证 50 指数环比下降 1.15%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 1.16%。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 2.20%、大盘价值环比下降 0.55%、中盘成长环比下降 1.48%、中盘价值环比下降 1.19%、小盘成长环比 下降 1.45%、小盘价值环比下降 0.85%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 713.51 亿元，环比 减少 9.71%；万得全 A 总成交额为 19803.82 亿元，环比减少 4.13%；沪深两 市主力净流出 620.11 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.14bp 至 1.81%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 135.02 元，环比昨日下降 0.64%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 178.79 元，环比 下降 1.27%；偏债型转债的收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the production rush at the end of the third quarter in October, the economy weakened again at the beginning of the quarter. Coupled with the high base in the service industry, the estimated monthly GDP was around 4.5%, a relatively low level since the beginning of the year [10]. - The incremental impact of the "two 50 billion" in October has not yet appeared, including less - than - expected credit and infrastructure investment effects [12]. - The "broad credit" verification from November to December is still an important observation clue for the fundamentals. The effects of this round of policy tools are expected to continue until the first quarter of 2026 [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "Broad Credit" Effect May Appear with a Lag - **GDP Estimation**: In October, affected by factors such as the end of the peak season in the service industry, weak exports, and more holidays, the GDP dropped to about 4.5%, a low level since the beginning of the year [10]. - **Influence of "Two 50 Billion"**: In October, the incremental impact of the "two 50 billion" was not evident. The new medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased year - on - year, and infrastructure investment was weaker than the seasonal average, with a lower leveraging effect than in 2022 [12]. - **Reasons**: Policy tools were gradually launched from the end of September to the end of October, and the capital effects may not be fully reflected. There may be an overlap between policy - supported projects and special bond projects, and the project scope has expanded to light - asset industries, resulting in a weaker loan - leveraging effect [17]. - **Outlook**: The "broad credit" verification from November to December is crucial. Considering the high base formed by the strong "good start" this year, macro - policies in 2026 may need to be implemented earlier, and the effects of this round of tools are expected to last until the first quarter of 2026 [17]. 3.2 October Data Interpretation: Mild Slowdown of Economic Momentum at the Beginning of the Quarter 3.2.1 Infrastructure - **Investment Situation**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was - 0.1%, and the full - scale infrastructure investment was + 1.5%, showing a further decline. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity was - 8.9%, and the full - scale infrastructure was - 12.1%, accelerating the decline [18]. - **Future Outlook**: Although 50 billion of policy - based financial instruments were fully invested by the end of October, and the new orders and business activity expectations in the construction industry PMI improved, the actual workload may be postponed, and the investment data from November to December need to be verified [18]. 3.2.2 Real Estate - **Investment and Sales**: From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 14.7%, and the single - month year - on - year was - 23.0%. The decline in construction narrowed, while the decline in new construction and completion expanded. In October, the year - on - year decline in residential sales area was - 19.6%, and the decline had been expanding for three consecutive months. The month - on - month decline in new and second - hand residential sales prices also expanded [23]. - **Future Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the probability of further adjustment of purchase - restriction policies in first - tier cities and the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year [23]. 3.2.3 Manufacturing Investment - **Investment Performance**: In October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was + 2.7%, and the single - month year - on - year was - 6.7%, with the decline expanding by 4.8 percentage points. Except for the automobile manufacturing and equipment transportation manufacturing industries, the single - month year - on - year growth rates of other industries turned negative [27]. - **Reasons and Outlook**: Due to the high base formed by the concentrated implementation of the equipment renewal policy from October to the end of last year and the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits and capacity control, manufacturing investment may continue to be in an adjustment period in the short term [27]. 3.2.4 Consumption - **Overall Situation**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was + 2.9%, a slight decline from the previous month. The month - on - month seasonally adjusted growth rate recovered to + 0.16%, a relatively weak seasonal level [31]. - **Sub - items**: In terms of catering, the year - on - year growth rate was + 3.8%, and the month - on - month growth rate was + 15.3%, better than the average of the past three years. In terms of commodity retail, the year - on - year growth rate of above - quota commodity retail was + 1.4%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from September. Most subsidized categories showed a decline, while non - subsidized categories such as gold and silver jewelry performed well. The year - on - year growth rate of online commodity retail slowed down [36]. 3.2.5 Industry - **Production Situation**: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial production was + 4.9%, and the month - on - month seasonally adjusted growth rate was + 0.17%, a seasonal decline and a relatively weak level since 2019. The decline in exports and the season - beginning effect dragged down manufacturing production [38]. - **Future Outlook**: In November, with the disappearance of holiday disturbances and the release of policy funds, industrial production may experience seasonal recovery [41].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 社融和存款的变化预示什么？ ——10月金融数据点评 事 项 4、年内企业债券融资和非金融企业境内股票融资持续同比多增。直接融资与 高科技创新型企业等新动能更加适配，其扩张有利于上述企业现金流和投资行 为的改善。其次，直接融资有利于非银存款向企业存款的转移，缓解了非银存 款淤积在金融市场的风险，居民存款搬家至非银机构的背景下，后续企业债券 融资和境内股票融资规模有望持续改善。 2025 年 10 月，新增社融 8150 亿（前值 3.53 万亿）。社融存量同比 8.5%（前值 8.7%），M2 同比 8.2%（前值 8.4%），新口径 M1 同比 6.2%（前值 7.2%）。 核心观点： 1、金融数据我们重点跟踪三个指标： ①旧口径 M1 同比抬升对应未来一年工业产成品库存同比和 PPI 同比的改善， ②非银存款同比抬升对应当下权益市场成交规模的抬升， ③企业中长期贷款回落则反应供给侧没有过度增加生产性投资。 2、10 月的金融数据仍维持着两个特点，一个是流向工业领域的企业中长期贷 款同比持续少增，这对应着供给端有效回落的叙事，另一个是居民存款减少且 非银存款抬升 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 淡化信贷目标，非银存款高增 ——10 月金融数据解读 ❖ 2025 年 10 月新增人民币贷款 2200 亿元，同比少增 2800 亿元，信贷余额增速 下降至 6.5%；新增社会融资规模 8150 亿，同比少增 5970 亿元，社融存量增 速由 8.7%下行至 8.5%；M2 同比增速受基数影响从 8.4%进一步下行至 8.2%， 新口径的 M1 增速由 7.2%下行至 6.2%。整体来看，10 月季初信贷小月，主要 依靠表内票据补位，其中居民短贷为主要拖累，"购物节"效应带动不强；四 季度社融因政府债发行的高基数，增速延续回落；M2 增速小幅下滑，非银存 款为主要支撑项，M1 增速结束持续 6 个月的回升态势。 ❖ 一、信贷：居民短贷为主要拖累，企业中长贷转弱 （2）企业部门：10 月企业中长期贷款仅增加 300 亿元，同比少增 1400 亿元。 9 月季末企业贷款表现不弱，或部分透支 10 月额度，叠加政策性金融工具拉 动有限，年末进入经济"淡季"，企业中长期贷款或难有明显增量。票据方面， 当月票据融资增加 5006 亿元，同比多增 3312 亿元，票据"补 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 康耐特光学（02276.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 双十一智能眼镜大卖，持续看好公司 XR 业 务进展 事项： ❖ 根据易观双 11 观察报告，截至 10 月 30 日，智能眼镜品类成交额同比暴涨 25 倍，强势跃居天猫 3C 数码趋势热门品类 TOP3。其中，公司作为镜片独供的 夸克 AI 眼镜 S1 在"双 11"预售期间，位列天猫智能眼镜品牌、智能眼镜店 铺、XR 品类榜销量第一，累计销量突破 5000 台。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,061 | 2,347 | 2,835 | 3,380 | | 同比增速(%) | 17.1% | 13.9% | 20.8% | 19.2% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 428 | 564 | 696 | 869 | | 同比增速(%) | 31.0% | 31.7% | 23.3% | 25.0% | | 每股盈 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 公牛集团（603195）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 业绩短期承压，期待新业务放量 事项： 公牛集团发布 2025 年三季报。公司 25Q3 实现收入 40.3 亿元，YoY-4.4%；实 现归母净利润 9.2 亿元，YoY-10.3%；实现扣非归母净利润 8.6 亿元，同比- 8.3%。 评论： 证券分析师：陆偲聪 邮箱：lusicong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050002 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 16,831 | 16,659 | 17,809 | 18,707 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.2% | -1.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 4,272 | 3,991 | 4,379 | 4,656 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.4% | -6.6% | 9.7% | 6.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 2.36 ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 量化看市场系列之二：市场运行状态与位置 监控的十大指标 摘要 2025 年的 A 股市场整体呈现震荡上行的态势，主要股指普遍上涨，市场交易 活跃度也显著提升。 我们认为可以从以下十个维度判断市场运行状况： 1、A 股市值/GDP 比值（巴菲特指标）：如果该比值较低，则股市相对经济"低 估"，牛市或仍有空间；比值过高则需要警惕泡沫。 2、居民存款与股市总市值之比：其核心含义是"场外资金对场内资产的相对 充裕程度"。居民存款像是 "水库" 里的水。股市总市值像是已经 "灌溉到 农田" 里的水。这个比率就是"水库库存水量"与"农田已用水量"之比。 3、融资余额/全 A 流通市值占比（杠杆资金活跃度）：该指标衡量的是通过融 资融券机制中的融资业务（即投资者向券商借钱买股票）所投入市场的总资金， 占整个 A 股市场流通市值的比例。这个比率的核心是衡量杠杆交易的相对规 模，即市场总交易盘子中，有多少是由"借来的钱"推动的。如果融资余额很 多，说明投资者情绪很高，愿意加杠杆买股票，对市场非常乐观。反之，就是 投资者不看好当前市场。 4、股债投资性价比：股票是高风险资产，其长期 ...

Report Title - "Bond Daily Report: Emphasize the Transmission of Monetary Policy and Balance the Interest Rate Parity Relationship - Interpretation of the 2025 Q3 Monetary Policy Report" [1] Report Summary - On November 12, 2025, the central bank released the Q3 2025 Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The overall tone has changed, with liquidity, entity financing, cost reduction, exchange rate, and interest rate policies all showing corresponding adjustments [6]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report sends a strong signal for steady growth, is more cautious about the external situation, and strengthens the demand for steady growth led by domestic demand. The policy tone has been adjusted, and the possibility of front - loaded monetary policy next year cannot be ruled out. Although the statement of "preventing capital idling" is removed, the space for significant easing is limited. It also guides the market to rationally view the credit growth rate affected by factors such as debt replacement and proposes to maintain a "reasonable interest rate parity relationship" [3][32]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Focus on Steady Growth and Acknowledge the Improvement in Price Operation - Be cautious about the external situation and have a strong demand for domestic steady growth and stable expectations. The description of the external environment has become more cautious, and more emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand in the internal environment. The report describes price operation more positively, acknowledging the marginal changes in CPI and PPI and also emphasizing long - term supply - demand contradictions [3][7][8] 2. Change from "Implementing in Detail" to "Implementing Well", and from "Counter - cyclical" to "Counter - cyclical and Cross - cyclical" - "Implementing in detail" is changed to "implementing well", and "counter - cyclical adjustment" is adjusted to "counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment". This does not mean that the window for aggregate easing is completely closed [3][11] 3. Do Not Mention "Preventing Capital Idling", but Still Pay Attention to Overnight Fund Operation - The statement of "preventing capital idling" is not mentioned, but the control over the money market is strengthened, and it is difficult to expect a significant loosening of capital prices. The operation time of outright repurchase and MLF is clearly defined [3][14][15] 4. Maintain a Reasonable Growth of Financial Aggregates and Pay More Attention to Social Financing and Money Supply - Emphasize maintaining a reasonable growth of financial aggregates, mainly focusing on social financing scale and money supply. The credit growth rate has declined due to the crowding - out effect of replacement bonds. Continue to promote the reduction of the comprehensive social financing cost and pay attention to stabilizing the net interest margin of banks [3][19][20] 5. Exchange Rate Pressure Eases, and the Statement of "Three Resolves" Fades - In the exchange rate statement, the emphasis is on preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and the statement of "three resolves" is faded, indicating that the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has eased [3][23] 6. Do Not Directly Mention "Pay Attention to the Trend of Long - term Interest Rates", but Emphasize Maintaining a Reasonable Interest Rate Parity - The text does not directly mention "pay attention to the trend of long - term yields", but proposes to balance the interest rate parity relationship of each group to smooth the transmission of monetary policy, and lists several key interest rate relationships [3][27]