Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $12.00 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed a net profit of 750 million RMB, exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 600 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 41.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.7% [1][4]. - Loan quality has slightly improved, with the first-day overdue rate decreasing to 4.6% and the annualized net profit take rate increasing by 20 basis points to 4.1% [3][4]. - The company maintains a cautious operational approach, with a focus on improving loan quality and increasing the proportion of light capital business, which is expected to drive profit growth in the short term [1][2]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company reported a net profit of 750 million RMB, which is better than expected, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.7% and a year-on-year increase of 41.4% [1]. - The overdue rate decreased by 10 basis points to 4.6%, indicating improved loan quality [1][3]. - The total loan amount for Q1 2025 was 52.1 billion RMB, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.4% [2]. Loan Quality and Capital Structure - The first-day overdue rate improved to 4.6%, and the 30-day repayment rate remained stable at 89% [3]. - The light capital business's balance proportion increased to 43.0%, which is expected to enhance profit margins due to the absence of income and provision mismatches [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 3.22 billion RMB, 3.91 billion RMB, and 4.02 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a positive outlook [4][6]. - The target price remains at $12.00 based on DCF valuation methodology [4][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $19.01 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 26.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, which is in line with the consensus estimate of -4.5%. The decline is attributed to a high base from the previous year and ongoing recovery in consumer sentiment [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 2025 was 2.3 billion RMB, corresponding to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 8.8%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, but better than the consensus estimate of 8.5%. This is attributed to disciplined marketing expense management [1]. - The company expects revenue growth to gradually recover to positive year-on-year growth in the second half of 2025 [1]. Revenue and User Metrics - The total GMV for Q1 2025 was 52.4 billion RMB, flat year-on-year. Product revenue was 24.3 billion RMB, accounting for 92.5% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 6.0% [2]. - Active customers numbered 41.3 million, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, the number of Super VIP (SVIP) members continued to grow at a double-digit rate year-on-year, contributing 51% of the online net GMV in Q1 2025 [2]. Management Guidance - The management indicated that revenue growth may turn positive year-on-year in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, with profit margins expected to remain relatively stable throughout the year [3]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, aligning with consensus expectations [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain shareholder returns totaling no less than 75% of the non-GAAP net profit for 2024, estimated at approximately 6.7 billion RMB. As of May 20, 2025, the company had completed $250 million in annual dividends and $150 million in stock buybacks, equivalent to about 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 1.4%, 1.3%, and 1.5% to 8.9 billion RMB, 9.3 billion RMB, and 9.6 billion RMB, respectively, due to slower-than-expected revenue growth recovery [5][25]. - The target PE for 2025 is set at 8x, which is at a discount compared to the average of comparable companies at 14.1x, primarily due to the company's lower revenue growth expectations [5][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $33.00 [8][9] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 70.03 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, exceeding the forecast of 69.17 billion RMB. Adjusted net profit was 3.63 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 2.59 billion RMB, driven by the gradual recognition of deferred revenue from "Three Strategies" and stable growth in advertising revenue [1][2][4] - User engagement has significantly increased, with daily average usage time reaching a historical high of 108 minutes and daily active users (DAU) at 107 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The number of official members grew by 12% to 264 million [2][3] - The gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 17.31 billion RMB, a 76.1% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding market expectations. The company anticipates continued high growth in H1 2025, supported by upcoming events and new game releases [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 36.3% in Q1 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to high growth in gaming and advertising businesses. The operating profit for Q1 2025 was 3.42 billion RMB, exceeding the forecast of 2.2 billion RMB [4][5] - The report projects revenues of 305.7 billion RMB, 336.1 billion RMB, and 363.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 19.99 billion RMB, 26 billion RMB, and 31.83 billion RMB for the same years [5][15] User Engagement and Advertising - The platform's user engagement metrics improved significantly, with a notable increase in the number of creators with over one million followers, growing by 20%. Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 19.98 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [2][3] - The company expects advertising revenue for 2025 to reach 97.67 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% [2][5] Valuation and Market Position - The company employs a segment-based price-to-sales (PS) valuation method, resulting in a target market value of 101.28 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of $33.00, based on a PS ratio of 3.3x for 2025 [5][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $259.30 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $1.58 billion for Q4 FY25, which is a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, outperforming the consensus estimate of 12.1% [1]. - The GAAP net loss was $3.7 billion, which was worse than the consensus estimate of a $0.2 billion loss, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $3.6 billion [1]. - The company expects limited future impairments as the total goodwill value decreased from $4.43 billion at the end of FY24 to $1.06 billion at the end of FY25 [1]. - The release of the second trailer for GTA VI on May 6 received over 475 million views within 24 hours, indicating strong player anticipation despite the game's delay to May 26, 2026 [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s net bookings for Q4 FY25 were $1.58 billion, aligning with the previous guidance of $1.52 to $1.62 billion [2]. - The management indicated that growth was primarily driven by the strong performance of NBA 2K, with consumer spending increasing by 42% year-on-year [2]. - For FY26, the company guides net bookings of $5.9 to $6.0 billion and total revenue of $5.95 to $6.05 billion, with a GAAP net loss projected between $0.44 to $0.50 billion [2]. Product Pipeline - The core product GTA VI is now expected to launch on May 26, 2026, which is clearer than the previously vague timeline of Fall 2025, reducing the likelihood of further delays [3]. - The company plans to release major titles such as Mafia and Borderlands 4 in August FY26, with a total of 21 core games, 9 mobile games, and 8 sequels expected between FY26 and FY28 [4]. Adjusted Profit and Valuation - The profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been adjusted to net losses of $0.45 billion and a profit of $0.73 billion, respectively, with FY28 projected at $1.01 billion [5][13]. - The revenue forecast for FY26 has been reduced to $6.01 billion, while FY27 revenue is expected to be $9.45 billion, reflecting a 14.2% increase from previous estimates [5][13]. - The valuation window has been adjusted to FY27, with a target price-to-sales ratio of 4.9x, leading to a new target price of $259.30, up from $213.60 [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of JPY 4,400 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's FY3/25 revenue is projected at JPY 12,957.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while operating profit is expected to grow by 16.4% to JPY 1,407.2 billion, exceeding the company's guidance of JPY 1,335 billion [1][2]. - The gaming and semiconductor businesses are anticipated to continue driving performance, with gaming business operating profit guidance exceeding expectations despite the delay of GTA6 [2][3]. - The impact of tariffs on operating profit is estimated at around 8%, but the actual effect may be more limited due to diversified production locations and increased inventory in the U.S. [3][4]. - The financial division spin-off is expected to be completed in October, which is viewed positively as it allows the company to focus more on its creative entertainment vision [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For FY3/26, the company expects revenues of JPY 11,700 billion and operating profit of JPY 1,380 billion, with gaming and network services projected to grow by 15.7% year-on-year [2][3]. - The forecast for FY3/26 to FY3/28 net profit is JPY 10,743 billion, JPY 12,630 billion, and JPY 13,690 billion respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 11% and 2% for FY3/26 and FY3/27 due to tariff impacts [5][16]. Segment Performance - The gaming and network services segment is expected to generate significant revenue, with a projected operating profit of JPY 4,086 billion for FY3/26, driven by strong first-party game sales [17]. - The music segment is also expected to perform well, with an operating profit margin higher than comparable companies, projected at JPY 3,698 billion for FY3/26 [17]. - The imaging and sensing solutions segment is anticipated to see improvements in profit margins due to cautious investments and market share growth in the automotive sector [17].

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in China's inverter exports in April 2025, with an export value of 5.82 billion, representing a month-on-month growth of 28.0% and a quantity of 4.5292 million units, up 21.4% from the previous month [3] - The average export price of inverters rose to 1,284 yuan per unit, marking a month-on-month increase of 5.5% [3] - The demand growth is attributed to the onset of the summer peak season for household storage and accelerated overseas large-scale storage construction [3] - The report emphasizes the long-term drivers of demand, including power outages, rising electricity prices, and significant growth in wind and solar installations, indicating a shift in inverter demand towards emerging markets [3] - The report recommends companies such as Deye Technology, Sungrow Power Supply, and Sunshine Power for their potential in the inverter market [3] Industry Overview - The macroeconomic context suggests that the Chinese yuan may have upward momentum against the US dollar, driven by structural rebalancing in global asset allocation and diminishing depreciation expectations for the yuan [2] - The report notes that the US has adjusted tariffs on imports, which has implications for global trade dynamics and may affect the competitiveness of Chinese exports [2] - The report also discusses the ongoing trends in the logistics and e-commerce sectors, highlighting a continued focus on price competition and volume growth in the express delivery market, with a year-on-year increase in express delivery volume of 19.1% in April [7] - In the consumer electronics sector, the report indicates strong sales growth for robotic vacuum cleaners and floor washers, driven by promotional activities and consumer demand, with sales volume for robotic vacuum cleaners increasing by 74.49% year-on-year in April [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.43 [9][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 16.3 billion for 2HFY25, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 12.6%. Adjusted net profit was RMB 970 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, but below the consensus expectation of 11.0% [1]. - Future profit growth is expected to rely primarily on organic business growth as the impact of advertising business integration diminishes. Key areas to monitor include the recovery of demand across various pharmaceutical e-commerce categories, the progress of Taobao's instant retail strategy, and advancements in medical AI technology [1][2][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's self-operated business revenue for 2HFY25 was RMB 14 billion, up 13.9% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus expectation of 9.1%. The pharmaceutical e-commerce platform business generated RMB 1.9 billion, a growth of 43.6%, although it fell short of the expected 57.7% [2]. - The management indicated that the integration of the advertising business has enhanced service capabilities for platform merchants, leading to improved operational returns and increased competitiveness in the pharmaceutical health e-commerce sector [2][3]. Business Strategy and Guidance - The management has set a revenue growth target of 5-10% for FY26, with adjusted net profit growth projected at 10-20%. The focus will be on enhancing merchant empowerment and user experience in traditional core businesses while seeking new growth points in innovative businesses such as medical AI [4][5]. - The company aims to improve profitability in mature businesses while exploring new growth avenues through innovative initiatives like "Code Assurance" and "Little Deer Traditional Chinese Medicine" [3][4]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Adjustments to the FY26-27 adjusted net profit forecasts have been made, with a decrease of 8.8% and 8.4% to RMB 2.3 billion and RMB 2.6 billion, respectively. A new forecast for FY28 has been introduced at RMB 2.9 billion [5][14]. - The company is assigned a target non-IFRS PE of 35x for FY26, reflecting a premium over comparable companies' average of 16.2x, driven by its market share acquisition and potential in medical AI [5][16].

证券研究报告 万国数据-SW (9698 HK) EBITDA 增长提速，上架率提升 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 5 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 通信服务 | 万国数据 1Q25 实现营业收入 27.23 亿元，同比增长 12.0%，实现调整后 EBITDA 13.24 亿元，同比增长 16.1%，高于彭博一致预期的 12.87 亿元， 主要受益于积压订单的交付和新订单的快速推进。本季度公司完成首单 ABS 项目交割，并确认资产处置收益 10.57 亿元，在此影响下，本季度实 现净利润 4.11 亿元。我们认为，随着国内 AI 应用步入蓬勃发展期，AI 推理 需求的增长有望带动公司国内数据中心空置率下降，从而为公司带来估值提 升及业绩改善机遇，维持"买入"评级。 上架率及 EBITDA 利润率提升，海外业务签约规模达 537MW 国内业务方面，截至 1Q25 末，公司在运营面积达到 610,685 平方米（同比 增长 14.6%），在运营 IT 规模约 1313MW，公司在运营/储备规模分别达到 369MW/900MW。机柜利用率达 75. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment and specialized equipment sectors [5]. Core Insights - The global nuclear fusion industry is accelerating, with significant advancements expected in the coming years, particularly with the BEST project set to demonstrate fusion energy generation [17][21]. - Over 70% of surveyed fusion companies believe that commercial applications of fusion energy can be achieved between 2031 and 2040, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][25]. - The Tokamak technology is considered the most mature among various fusion technology paths and is expected to lead the commercialization of fusion energy [18][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The nuclear fusion industry is experiencing robust growth, driven by policy support and technological advancements. Countries like the US, China, Europe, and Japan have established detailed strategic plans for fusion development [17][21]. - The BEST project in China is expected to be completed by 2027 and will be the first to demonstrate fusion energy generation, marking a significant milestone for China's fusion energy development [29][30]. Market Potential - The market for Tokamak devices is projected to exceed 90 billion yuan, with high-value components such as magnetic coils, first wall components, and vacuum parts being key beneficiaries [19][4]. - As of April 2025, there are 80 Tokamak devices globally, with 57 operational and 23 under construction, indicating a growing demand for fusion experimental reactors [19][4]. Technological Advancements - The Tokamak device operates by creating a closed helical magnetic field to confine high-temperature plasma, which is essential for achieving fusion reactions. The EAST device in China has already achieved a plasma confinement time of 403 seconds [18][34]. - The report highlights that advancements in high-temperature superconductors will enhance plasma stability and contribute to the commercialization of Tokamak technology [18][34]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the nuclear fusion sector is on a path to commercialization, with ongoing projects and technological innovations paving the way for practical applications of fusion energy [20][21]. - The anticipated completion of the ITER project by 2025 will further solidify the foundation for future fusion energy developments [21][22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Factors influencing the spread of secondary and perpetual bonds (hereinafter referred to as "two - perpetual bonds") include interest rate fluctuations, market supply - demand, credit risk, and regulatory policy changes. In the past two years, the unexpected risks and non - redemption events of two - perpetual bonds have decreased, the credit environment has been relatively stable, and the impact of credit risk has significantly declined. After the contraction of urban investment bond supply in 2023, institutions such as funds and wealth management products quickly compressed the grade and term spreads of two - perpetual bonds to low levels. Therefore, subsequent pricing of two - perpetual bonds focuses more on interest rate fluctuations and market supply - demand changes. This year, affected by the tight - then - loose funds, rising - then - falling interest rates, and decreasing - then - increasing non - bank allocation demand, the spread of two - perpetual bonds has generally risen first and then fallen. Looking ahead, with interest rate fluctuations, deposit rate cuts, and incremental non - bank demand, there are still opportunities for the spread of two - perpetual bonds to narrow. It is recommended that institutions choose medium - to - short - duration sinking into city and rural commercial bank bonds for coupon income or medium - to - high - grade bonds with a duration of 3 - 5 years, operate with interest rate bands, and allocate when the spread is high [1]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Two - part Classification of Two - perpetual Bond Spreads - The spread of two - perpetual bonds can be decomposed into liquidity premium and credit risk premium. The liquidity premium reflects the liquidity compensation for the weaker secondary liquidity of credit bonds compared to interest - rate bonds, and the credit risk premium reflects the compensation for credit default risk. For two - perpetual bonds, due to special terms such as write - down, subordination, and redemption, and their repayment order being lower than that of general commercial financial bonds, there is also a variety premium, which is part of the credit risk premium. Institutional behavior also has an increasing impact on market valuation. Asset shortages intensify institutional exploration of two - perpetual bonds, reducing the liquidity premium, while redemption disturbances increase the adjustment pressure on two - perpetual bonds. In case of unexpected credit risk events, institutional risk - aversion also increases the credit risk premium of two - perpetual bonds [11]. - The liquidity premium is mainly affected by interest rate disturbances, market supply - demand, etc. Since 2021, with increased exploration of varieties, high - grade two - perpetual bonds have become credit products with good liquidity and are obvious amplifiers of interest rate fluctuations. The variety spread (liquidity premium) is significantly affected by interest rate fluctuations, and is also influenced by unexpected credit risk events, regulatory policies (such as the new capital regulations increasing the risk weight of two - perpetual bonds), and market supply - demand (asset shortages and institutional redemptions). In a strong market, the spread generally compresses; in a weak market, it widens. When interest rates fluctuate within a narrow range, whether two - perpetual bonds perform better than interest - rate bonds depends on factors such as the spread size and the strength of non - bank allocation demand [2][16]. - The credit risk premium is mainly affected by risk events, and market supply - demand also increases fluctuations. The grade spread (credit risk premium) is mainly affected by bank risk events and market supply - demand. The widening of the grade spread is often driven by bank risk events, such as non - redemptions of small and medium - sized banks. Since 2022, the number of non - redemptions has declined. The core of the two - perpetual bond sinking market lies in asset shortages, while short - term fluctuations are more affected by interest rate disturbances. However, the sinking strategy also has obvious valuation risks, and low - grade two - perpetual bonds often adjust more slowly and with a larger amplitude in market adjustments [25][32]. - The term spread is mainly affected by the money market, supply - demand, institutional behavior, and interest rate fluctuations. The short - end is more sensitive to the money market and market changes. When the market changes rapidly, the short - end moves first, causing the term spread to change passively in the opposite direction. The long - end is often the choice for institutions to extend the duration to seek returns after the market has been strong for a long time. Supply - demand and institutional behavior also play a role. When liquidity is loose and high - quality assets are scarce, institutions extend the duration to seek returns, and the medium - and long - term spreads are actively compressed. There is also a grade differentiation, where high - grade bonds have stronger liquidity, and their term spread fluctuations are more closely linked to interest rates, while low - grade bonds have more obvious liquidity stratification, with a larger spread compression amplitude during asset shortages but a slower recovery during adjustments [41][43]. 3.2 Changes in the Supply - Demand Relationship of Two - perpetual Bonds and Their Impact on Spreads - In terms of supply, the issuance of bank secondary capital bonds started in 2013, and the issuance of bank perpetual bonds started in 2019. Since 2020, banks' demand for capital replenishment through issuing two - perpetual bonds has significantly increased. In 2021, the net financing of two - perpetual bonds decreased as maturities increased. In 2022 and 2023, the net financing decreased due to the wealth management redemption wave. In 2024, the supply of two - perpetual bonds increased significantly, and the net financing of city and rural commercial bank two - perpetual bonds reached a record high. As of now in 2025, the issuance of bank two - perpetual bonds has slowed down, mainly related to the implementation of a 500 - billion - yuan capital injection for large - scale banks this year, which partially replaces the demand for two - perpetual bonds, and the general capital replenishment demand and unstable institutional allocation demand this year [53]. - In terms of demand, funds and wealth management products have been major players in the marginal pricing of two - perpetual bonds since 2021. For example, the redemption wave at the end of 2022 widened the spread significantly, while the under - allocation in 2023 - 2024 led to a comprehensive compression of variety, grade, and term spreads. Insurance is a long - term investor, increasing its holdings during market adjustments. Banks are mainly sellers in the secondary market, and rural commercial banks are the main force in increasing the allocation of secondary capital bonds [3][59]. 3.3 Historical Review of Two - perpetual Bond Spreads - **2019**: In January - April, policy relaxation on insurance investment in secondary capital bonds narrowed the spread. In May - July, the takeover of Baoshang Bank widened the spread. In August - October, the spread narrowed as the impact of the Baoshang Bank event eased and interest rates fluctuated. In November - December, non - redemptions by some banks widened the spread. The term spread was affected by the Baoshang Bank event and non - redemption risks, and the grade spread was also affected by the event and non - redemptions [81][82]. - **2020**: In January - February, the spread widened passively due to the epidemic and loose monetary policy. In March - April, non - redemptions and concerns about bank operations widened the spread. In May - July, the spread narrowed as the epidemic improved and interest rates rose. In August - October, the spread widened due to reduced demand and increased supply. In November - December, credit events such as the Yongmei default and the full write - down of Baoshang Bank's secondary capital bonds widened the spread significantly. The term spread first widened, then narrowed, and then fluctuated [93][94][97]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - Affected by uncertainties such as tariff negotiations, interest - rate bonds may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the second quarter. In terms of supply, the supply may increase quarter - on - quarter in the second quarter due to increased maturities, but the net financing is unlikely to increase significantly throughout the year. On the demand side, since April, the scale of wealth management products and funds has increased. Coupled with the low credit supply in May and interest rate fluctuations, there is still demand for coupon income from two - perpetual bonds. The probability of unexpected defaults this year is low. In terms of valuation comparison, the adjusted short - end yield of two - perpetual bonds is better than that of corporate credit bonds, and the absolute price and relative spread of medium - to - high - grade 3 - 5 - year bonds are relatively high. Therefore, in a volatile market with slightly better credit demand than interest - rate demand, it is recommended that institutions choose medium - to - short - duration sinking into city and rural commercial bank bonds for coupon income or medium - to - high - grade bonds with a duration of 3 - 5 years, operate with interest rate bands, and allocate when the spread is high [5].