证券研究报告 东方电气 (1072 HK/600875 CH) 港股通 减值拖累 24 年净利，1Q 业绩亮眼 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 04 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 电气设备 | 公司公布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报：2024 年营业总收入 696.95 亿元， 同比+14.9%；归母净利润 29.22 亿元，同比-17.7%，低于我们预期的 36.09 亿元，主要系计提资产减值 11.5 亿所致。1Q25 公司营业总收入同比+9.9% 至 165.48 亿元，归母净利润同比+27.4%至 11.54 亿元，高于我们预期的 9.51~10.87 亿元，主要系高毛利煤电订单占比提升。2024 年公司 DPS 为 0.403 元，分红比例为 46.76%。考虑公司有望受益于水火核传统电源的常 态化订单，且随高毛利煤电订单交付盈利能力或将明显提升，维持"买入"。 产业发展再上新台阶，1Q25 净利率同比/环比+0.87/+5.04pp 公司 2024 年海上风电新增装机量跻身前三，市占率突破 10% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.03 RMB [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in profitability, with a revenue of 186.6 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 4.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.7 billion RMB, up 4.82% year-on-year [1]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue in Q1 2025, with a revenue of 44.7 billion RMB, down 1.15% year-on-year, but the net profit for the same period increased by 18.8% year-on-year [1]. - New orders signed in 2024 increased by 12.3% year-on-year, with overseas projects contributing significantly to this growth [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved revenue of 519 billion RMB in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.12%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 447 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decline [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 10.5%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 gross margins at 12.8% and 9.3%, respectively [2][3]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 3.1% in 2024, up 0.02 percentage points year-on-year, and further increased to 3.2% in Q1 2025 [3]. Cash Flow Management - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 8.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 0.4 billion RMB year-on-year, primarily due to increased cash outflows related to guarantees and advances [4]. - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow turned negative at -15.1 billion RMB, with a cash collection to payment ratio of 90%/113% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 6.1 billion RMB, 6.5 billion RMB, and 6.8 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 4% to 5% [5]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 9x for 2025, leading to a target price adjustment to 9.03 RMB [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 23.50 [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in profitability in Q1 2025, with revenue of RMB 1.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 84.41%, and a net profit of RMB 13.23 million, exceeding previous expectations [1]. - The low Earth orbit satellite business is expected to drive significant growth, supported by the acceleration of the Qianfan constellation project, which aims to launch 1,296 satellites by 2028 [2]. - The company is focusing on military broadband communication and optimizing tactical communication equipment to strengthen its leading position in the industry [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 353.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.97%, and a net loss of RMB 123.89 million, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [6]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.28%, with a net profit margin of -35.06%, reflecting a year-on-year improvement of 25.61 percentage points [3]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 37.56%, and the net profit margin was 10.54%, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 25.28 percentage points [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to short-term pressures on military broadband business and an increase in satellite business share, with expected net profits of RMB 241.93 million, RMB 289.79 million, and RMB 358 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][19]. - The company’s PE ratio for 2025 is projected at 61x, reflecting its strategic positioning in the G60 satellite network and military broadband sector [4][20]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a core supplier for the Qianfan constellation, with expected sales of RMB 150 million to partners in 2024, accounting for 43% of its revenue [2]. - The military broadband sector is anticipated to recover gradually, with new product applications in military 5G and data links expected to contribute to revenue and profit recovery [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in Q1 2025, reporting revenue of 5.037 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 4.73%, but a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 104 million RMB, up 447.56% year-over-year [1][2] - The integration of Grammer has contributed significantly to the company's profitability, with Grammer's Q1 revenue at 487 million EUR and a notable improvement in operating EBIT [2][4] - The company has a robust order book in its seating business, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 gross margin improved to 16.32%, with a net margin of 2.09%, reflecting a significant enhancement in profitability [2] - The company expects revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, projecting revenues of 23.482 billion RMB, 26.748 billion RMB, and 32.743 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 655.71 million RMB, 990.84 million RMB, and 1.363 billion RMB [5][7] Employee Incentives - The company announced an employee stock ownership plan aimed at incentivizing key personnel in the seating division, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit [3] Strategic Developments - The strategic restructuring of Grammer, including the divestment of unprofitable segments, is expected to enhance the company's operational flexibility and profitability [4] - The seating projects have expanded to include major clients, and new business lines are gradually ramping up production [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8][5]. Core Views - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 is RMB 1.02, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, primarily driven by rapid growth in insurance service performance [1]. - The new business value (NBV) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating stable growth, despite a 4.5% decline in new single premiums [2]. - The insurance service performance saw a significant year-on-year growth of 129%, reaching RMB 25.5 billion, attributed to improved health insurance claims and interest rate increases affecting the release of profit from participating insurance [2]. - The company expects NBV to continue growing, with a projected increase of 9.8% in 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - The company reported a total investment income of RMB 273.1 billion for 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.19% [7]. - The annualized total investment return and net investment return for Q1 2025 were 2.75% and 2.60%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [4]. Sales and Distribution - The total sales force decreased by 3% to 646,000, with individual insurance sales personnel at 596,000 [3]. - The majority of the NBV is contributed by the agent channel, which accounted for 93% of the NBV in 2024 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecast for 2025 is adjusted to RMB 3.30, reflecting a decrease of 0.8% from previous estimates [5]. - The target price based on DCF valuation is set at RMB 48 for A-shares and HKD 20 for H-shares [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 242.50 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 558 million RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 44.08% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.00%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94 million RMB, up 73.80% year-over-year [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by government subsidies stimulating demand in the smart home and consumer electronics sectors, with non-smart home sectors like industrial, energy, and healthcare showing even faster growth [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of over 30% in 2025, supported by the increasing adoption of its wireless SoC solutions across various digital scenarios [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin reached 43.37%, with a year-over-year increase of 1.44 percentage points. The net profit margin improved to 16.9%, up 3.0 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that chip/module and development kit revenues accounted for 37% and 62.1% respectively, with direct sales making up 72.4% of total sales [2]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its product lineup to capture more market share, particularly in smart home, industrial, energy, and healthcare sectors. New products are in the promotion phase, and the company is actively working on Wi-Fi 7 chip development [3][4]. - The developer community's activity is expected to reach new highs in 2025, further solidifying the company's open-source ecosystem [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025 to be 461.47 million RMB, with an expected EPS of 4.11 RMB. The PE ratio for 2026 is projected at 43 times [4][6].

证券研究报告 索菲亚 (002572 CH) 扣非净利表现具韧性，重视股东回报 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 家居用品 | 索菲亚发布年报，24 年实现营收 104.94 亿元（yoy-10.0%），归母净利 13.71 亿元（yoy+8.7%），超过我们此前预期（12.62 亿元），主要系公司出售参 股公司股权确认 2.6 亿投资收益所致。此外，25Q1 实现营收 20.38 亿元 （yoy-3.5%），归母净利 0.12 亿元（yoy-92.7%），扣非净利 1.51 亿元 （yoy-3.2%），扣非净利表现优于归母，主要系公司持有国联民生股票公允 价值下降带来约 2 亿公允价值变动损失所致。公司坚定"多品牌、全品类、 全渠道"发展战略，伴随地产有望企稳回升&以旧换新政策红利释放，终端 零售表现有望逐步回暖，维持"增持"评级。 索菲亚主品牌收入有所承压，期待 25 年改善，米兰纳/整装延续稳健成长 分品牌看：1）索菲亚品牌营收同减 10.5%至 94.48 亿元，伴随大家居战略 推进，客 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 96.42 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.98 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, and a net profit of RMB 431 million, up 53.8% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations [1]. - The company is expanding its product categories, particularly in electric low-speed vehicles and all-terrain vehicles, which are expected to drive revenue growth [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved profitability due to the introduction of new high-margin products and effective cost management [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.98 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 38.8%. The net profit reached RMB 431 million, reflecting a 53.8% increase [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of RMB 640 million, a 23% increase year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 86 million, up 69.5% year-on-year [1]. Product Segmentation - The electric low-speed vehicle segment generated RMB 1.89 billion in revenue in 2024, a 48% increase, with electric golf carts being a significant growth driver [2]. - The special vehicle segment reported a revenue of RMB 920 million, a 24.5% increase, with all-terrain vehicles contributing RMB 740 million [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin for North America and the Americas (excluding the US and Canada) was affected by exchange rate fluctuations, but the company remains optimistic about high-margin products [3]. - The sales expense ratio decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 10.5% in 2024, indicating effective cost control [3]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum in 2025, supported by global production capacity expansion and a diversified product matrix [4]. - The introduction of new high-end products is anticipated to enhance the company's profitability structure [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 6% and 3% to RMB 539.63 million and RMB 663.58 million, respectively [5]. - The target price of RMB 96.42 corresponds to a 2025E PE of 18.3x, based on comparable company analysis [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 150 RMB [7][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.73 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.4%. The gross margin improved to 29.4%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 498% to 3.32 billion RMB [1][2]. - The automotive business is expected to surpass the mobile phone segment in revenue by 2025, driven by the growth of automotive CIS (Camera Image Sensor) due to advancements in intelligent driving technology [1][3]. - The company is also optimistic about growth in other new product categories such as action cameras and medical devices [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 25.73 billion RMB, with the image sensor solutions contributing 19.19 billion RMB, accounting for 74.8% of total revenue. The automotive CIS segment generated 5.91 billion RMB, reflecting a 30% year-over-year growth [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.47 billion RMB, a 14.7% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 31% [1][3]. Growth Drivers - The automotive CIS business is projected to maintain rapid growth, potentially exceeding mobile CIS revenue due to the increasing adoption of intelligent driving technologies [3]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its product lines in touch control and display solutions, with expectations of reaching breakeven in 2025 and improving profitability in 2026 [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.57 billion RMB, 5.47 billion RMB, and 6.68 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [4][6]. - The target price of 150 RMB is based on a 40x PE ratio for 2025, which is lower than the median of comparable companies at 53.6x [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the domestic substitution opportunities arising from the Ministry of Commerce's ban, leveraging its technological and service advantages [1][3] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 30.13 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 3.48% [1] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic player in the gene sequencing equipment sector, with a target price set at 88.00 RMB, reflecting a 10x price-to-sales ratio for 2025 [5][9] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue from the gene sequencing business reached 23.48 billion RMB, showing a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in installed capacity [2] - The gross margin for the main business in 2024 was 55.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 131.43 million RMB [7] Business Segments - The gene sequencing segment achieved a domestic revenue of 16.07 billion RMB in 2024, marking an 11.4% year-on-year increase, with a market share of 63.8% in new installations [3] - The laboratory automation segment generated 2.09 billion RMB in revenue, indicating a shift towards regular research and clinical applications [2] - New business revenue reached 4.0 billion RMB, excluding pandemic-related income, with a remarkable growth of 57.1% year-on-year [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 36.65 billion RMB, 46.91 billion RMB, and 51.47 billion RMB respectively, reflecting an 11% downward adjustment for 2025 and 2026 [5][7] - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 1.66% in 2025, improving to 6.01% by 2027 [7]