证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 16 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 买入 | 华泰研究 | 公告点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 4.30 | 2025 年 | 7 月 | 16 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 目标价(港币): | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | 锅圈发布 | 1H25 业绩预告，预计净利润 | 1.8-2.1 亿元，同增 | 111-146%，核心 | SAC No. S0570524050001 | fanjunhao@htsc.com | | | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 +(852) 3658 6000 石狄 研究员 shidi@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 锅圈 (2517 HK) 港股通 1H25 同店增长亮眼，盈利能力快速提升 杨耀 联系人 SAC No. S0570124070059 yangyao@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 基本数据 | 目标价 (港币) ...

Group 1: Historical Context and Comparison - The supply-side reform from 2015 to 2017 successfully reduced excess capacity in industries like coal, steel, and aluminum, leading to a significant rebound in PPI from an average of -10.5% in 2015 to a peak of 21.5% in March 2017[2] - During the same period, the profit margin in affected industries improved from a low of 2.4% in 2015 to 6.6% in early 2017, with nominal GDP growth rising from 6.6% in Q4 2015 to 11.8% in Q1 2017[2][11] - The current "anti-involution" initiative targets industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, cement, and steel, contrasting with the previous focus on upstream traditional sectors like coal and steel[2][4] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Challenges - The industries involved in the current "anti-involution" have a higher concentration, with leading firms in photovoltaics and automobiles holding a market share of approximately 67%, compared to 34% and 36% for coal and steel during the previous reform[3][57] - The current environment features a lower proportion of state-owned enterprises and a higher presence of private firms (60-90%) compared to the previous reform period (50-70%)[3][4] - The effectiveness of capacity reduction in the current initiative may be hampered by the relatively new capacity in the steel sector and varying profitability across industries[3][4] Group 3: Economic Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" is expected to have a milder impact on PPI compared to the supply-side reform due to differences in demand-side policies and macroeconomic conditions, with current policies primarily aimed at stabilizing the economy[4][5] - Industries with high concentration and poor profitability, such as the upstream segment of photovoltaics, may see stronger capacity reduction incentives, while more profitable sectors could face resistance[4][5] - Historical data suggests that aligning "anti-involution" policies with demand-boosting measures could enhance effectiveness, as seen in the previous reform period[5][6]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The growth of social financing in June exceeded expectations, primarily driven by net financing from government bonds and an increase in short-term loans, with new RMB loans reaching 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 2.02 trillion yuan [2][3][8] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing rebounded to 8.9% in June from 8.7% in May, with a month-on-month annualized growth rate increasing to 8.3% [2][3] - The M2 money supply growth rate rose to 8.3% in June, reflecting a low base effect, while M1 growth increased to 4.6% [2][3] Group 2: Fixed Income and Real Estate - The real estate market showed mixed performance, with new home sales slightly recovering while second-hand home sales remained stable, indicating a need for price stabilization [4] - The construction sector saw improved cement demand relative to supply, while black commodity prices rose due to anti-involution policies [4] - The liquidity in the market remained balanced but slightly loose, with the average DR007 rate declining to 1.47% [4] Group 3: Securities and Investment Opportunities - Major brokerages reported significant profit growth in the first half of the year, with large brokerages seeing net profit growth rates between 50% and 80% [6] - The public fund industry experienced a steady increase in scale, with total assets reaching 32.33 trillion yuan by the end of June, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.95% [7] - The ETF market saw a 74% year-on-year growth in assets, with significant contributions from various product categories [9] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Satellite Chemical is positioned for growth with a cost advantage in ethylene production and a focus on high-end materials, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating [15] - Three Trees is expected to benefit from a shift in domestic market demand towards retail, with a target price of 53.19 yuan and a "Buy" rating [16] - Quartz Co. is recognized as a leader in high-purity quartz materials, with a target price of 37.3 yuan and an "Accumulate" rating [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 37.36 HKD [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of at least 1.45 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27%, and an adjusted net profit of at least 175 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33% [1][6]. - The company's business model, focusing on "Double Beauty + Double Health," is driving robust performance, with a 10% year-on-year increase in organic customer traffic for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The management's confidence in the company's long-term development is highlighted by a recent share buyback, which totaled 60,500 shares at an average price of approximately 29.12 HKD [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 320 million, 369 million, and 420 million RMB respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% [4][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.36, 1.57, and 1.78 RMB respectively [4][10]. Revenue Structure - The board attributes the performance improvement to the continuous refinement of the "Double Beauty + Double Health" business model, which has led to an increase in the proportion of high-margin business revenue [2][10]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the beauty and health sector, actively optimizing shareholder structure and exploring acquisition opportunities to enhance market value [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.53 billion RMB, down 88% year-on-year [1][6]. - The profitability in Q2 showed a net profit of 0.35 billion RMB, down 91% year-on-year but up 105% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a potential recovery trend [1][2]. - The report highlights that the soda ash industry is currently facing weak demand, but there are expectations for recovery in the second half of the year due to improved macroeconomic conditions and cost factors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6 billion RMB, with a net profit of 0.53 billion RMB, and a non-recurring net profit of 0.41 billion RMB, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [1][6]. - Q2 2025 saw a net profit of 0.35 billion RMB, which is a 91% decrease year-on-year but a 105% increase from the previous quarter [1][2]. Sales and Pricing - The company's soda ash sales volume increased by 39% year-on-year to 2.15 million tons in H1 2025, although revenue from soda ash decreased by 6% to 2.66 billion RMB due to falling prices [2][3]. - The average price of soda ash in Q2 2025 was 1212 RMB/ton, down 31% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Industry Outlook - The soda ash industry is expected to see a recovery in demand in the second half of 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic conditions and a reduction in coal costs [3][4]. - The company is progressing with its natural soda ash project, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge in terms of scale and cost [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 0.28 billion RMB, 0.51 billion RMB, and 0.80 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a significant downward adjustment [4][19]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 8.96 RMB, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.07 for 2025 [4][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of the capital market is marginally cautious, as indicated by the upward movement of certificate of deposit (CD) yields and interest rate swaps (IRS) [2]. - The repo trading volume increased, while the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, and the lending scale of money market funds increased [3]. - The bill rate decreased, indicating a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand, with general credit demand expected in July. The USD/CNY exchange rate increased, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened [4]. - The capital market is expected to remain balanced this week, but capital interest rate fluctuations may increase [5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Certificate of Deposit and Interest Rate Swap - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 510.52 billion yuan, and the issuance was 427.13 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of - 83.39 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the 1 - year AAA CD maturity yield was 1.63%, up from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 802.81 billion yuan, with greater maturity pressure than the previous week [2]. - In terms of interest rate swaps, the average value of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.53%, up from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Repo Market - Last week, the pledged repo trading volume was between 7.7 trillion and 8.6 trillion yuan. The average trading volume of R001 repos was 7,355.9 billion yuan, an increase of 545 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding repo balance was 11.8 trillion yuan, down from the previous week [3]. - By institution, the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, and the lending scale of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms, funds, and wealth management products decreased. As of Friday, the repo balances of large - scale banks and money market funds were 4.89 trillion yuan and 2.12 trillion yuan, down 694.7 billion yuan and up 48.8 billion yuan from the previous week respectively. The positive repo balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management products were 1.79 trillion yuan, 2.29 trillion yuan, and 704 billion yuan, down 78.5 billion yuan, 150.3 billion yuan, and 140.5 billion yuan from the previous week respectively [3]. 3.3 Bill and Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 0.89%, down from the last trading day of the previous week. The decrease in the bill rate indicates a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand, with general credit demand expected in July [4]. - Last Friday, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.17, slightly up from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. The strong US non - farm payrolls data in June led to a decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the increase in short - term supply pressure after the debt ceiling increase pushed up US Treasury yields [4]. 3.4 This Week's Focus - This week, 525.7 billion yuan of open - market funds will mature, including 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repos and 100 billion yuan of MLFs [5]. - China's June trade data will be released on Monday, and the performance of imports and exports will be monitored. China's June and Q2 economic data will be released on Tuesday, and the domestic fundamental performance will be monitored. The US June CPI and PPI data will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, and the US inflation performance will be monitored. June's financial data may be released this week, and the performance of credit and social financing will be monitored. Tuesday is the tax payment deadline, and the central bank's hedging efforts and capital market disturbances will be monitored [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 53.19, based on a 40x PE for 2026 [1][6]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from incremental to stock demand in the domestic market, focusing on three new retail formats to enhance brand strength and drive sustainable revenue growth [1][14]. - The company is expected to see a profit margin inflection point and operational performance elasticity due to steady market share gains in the small B and C-end markets, alongside improved product and channel offerings [1][14]. Summary by Sections Retail Business - The company is targeting a total home decoration demand area of approximately 1.7 billion square meters from 2024 to 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0% for stock renovation demand, leading to a retail paint market exceeding RMB 60 billion annually [2][14]. - The company's retail market share is projected to reach about 7.9% in 2024, indicating significant room for growth compared to competitors [2][14]. Engineering Coatings - The company has shifted its channel strategy towards engineering distribution, with small B distribution revenue maintaining steady growth at a CAGR of 13.1% from 2020 to 2024, despite a decline in large B direct sales [3][16]. - The engineering coatings market is estimated to be around RMB 50-60 billion annually, with the company's market share expected to stabilize around 13% [3][16]. Market Positioning - The company is evolving from a single paint manufacturer to a comprehensive service provider, integrating paint, consulting, and construction services, which is expected to become a new growth driver [4][15]. - The company has established a solid position in the engineering market, with a stable market share and improved accounts receivable turnover, indicating a controlled risk environment [14][16]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 7.8 billion, RMB 9.8 billion, and RMB 12.1 billion, respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 54.0% [5][14]. - The target price of RMB 53.19 is based on a 40x PE for 2026, with the company expected to benefit from the rapid replication of new business formats and reduced impairment risks [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company has a leading cost advantage in the C2 and C3 light hydrocarbon integration layout, with significant cost advantages in ethylene production from ethane cracking. The company has established a global ethane supply chain through strategic investments in U.S. ports and VLEC fleets, positioning itself for a new growth phase with upcoming project launches in ethylene production [1][17]. - The ethylene and propylene industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with structural contradictions in the high-end polyethylene market creating significant opportunities for domestic production to replace imports. The company is actively expanding its high-end polyethylene product offerings, which are anticipated to drive its next growth phase [3][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has successfully integrated C2 and C3 light hydrocarbons, achieving a cost advantage over peers. The ethylene production process from ethane is notably cost-effective, and the company has built a robust global supply chain for ethane, ensuring a steady supply for its production needs [1][17]. Industry Outlook - The ethylene and propylene industry is projected to experience a recovery, with new capacity expected to come online in 2025-2026. The industry is currently facing a structural imbalance characterized by low-end oversupply and high-end shortages, particularly in high-end polyethylene products, which are heavily reliant on imports [3][19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 6.3 billion, 7.4 billion, and 9.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 18.4%, and 23.6%. The expected EPS for the same years is 1.86, 2.20, and 2.72 RMB per share [5][11]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the ethylene market, with a current capacity of 2.5 million tons and additional capacity expected to come online by 2026-2027. The strategic focus on high-end polyethylene products is anticipated to fill domestic supply gaps and enhance the company's competitive edge [3][19][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - The demand for advanced processes remains strong, with TSMC's 2Q25 revenue exceeding expectations, achieving NT$933.8 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [1] - The N3 platform demand is rapidly increasing, with over 70 new tape-out products received in April, indicating structural growth potential [2] - The forecast for computing power demand has been raised, with significant growth expected in the AI custom acceleration chip market, projected to grow from $6.6 billion in 2023 to $55.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 53% [3] Summary by Sections Section 1: TSMC's Performance - TSMC's 2Q25 revenue reached NT$933.8 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of NT$929.1 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 38.6% [1] - The average exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar appreciated by 6.7% against the US Dollar, leading to a dollar-denominated revenue increase of 18.8% [1] Section 2: N3 Platform Demand - Concerns about TSMC's revenue growth in April and May being driven by tariff impacts are mitigated by the company's indication that there has been no change in customer order patterns [2] - The N3 platform and its derivatives are experiencing rapid demand growth, with a significant number of new tape-outs expected [2] Section 3: AI Demand and Market Outlook - Major companies are continuously iterating on pre-trained models, with OpenAI and xAI's large-scale computing clusters driving demand for pre-training and inference [3] - Marvell has revised its 2028 data center total addressable market (TAM) forecast from $75 billion to $94 billion, indicating strong growth potential in the AI sector [3] Section 4: Advanced and Mature Process Pricing - TSMC plans to increase prices for advanced processes to mitigate margin dilution from overseas factory expansions, while competition in mature processes remains intense [4] - The upcoming N2 node production is expected to enhance product structure and drive advanced average selling price (ASP) increases [4]