证券研究报告 京东物流 (2618 HK) 港股通 3Q 收入同比高增，海外业务加速布局 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 11 月 14 日│中国香港 | 仓储物流 | 目标价(港币): | 16.70 | 京东物流发布 3Q25 业绩：1）总收入 550.8 亿元，同比+24.1%；2）归 母利润/Non-IFRS 利润 20.3 亿/20.2 亿元，同比-7.9%/-21.5%；3）毛利率 /Non-IFRS 利润率 9.1%/3.7%，同比-2.6pct/-2.1pct。收入同比高增主因来 自京东零售收入增长、新增京东外卖业务、海外市场加速布局以及外部客户 业务增长推动；盈利同比下滑主因新增业务资源投入，短期成本上升。整体， 9M25 公司总收入 1,536.2 亿元，同比+17.5%；2）归母利润/Non-IFRS 利 润 46.1 亿/53.6 亿元，同比+3.2%/-5.8%。中长期看，伴随物流基础设施产 能利用率提升及自动化技术推广应用，规模效应有望推动公司利润率逐步修 复 ...

证券研究报告 哔哩哔哩 (9626 HK/BILI US) 广告业务提速，用户增长亮眼 华泰研究 季报点评 2025 年 11 月 14 日│中国香港/美国 互联网 公司公布 25Q3 业绩：收入 76.85 亿元，同比+5.2%，基本符合 VA 76.61 亿元的一致预测；调整后经营利润 6.88 亿元，超 VA 6.5 亿元的一致预期。 收入符合预期，利润整体好于市场预期，主因流量端提升叠加广告基建进步 推动广告收入增长超预期（yoy+23% vs VA 预期+20%），销售费用率下降 带动经营利润持续提升。今年以来平台活跃度持续提升，流量增长叠加 AI 赋能下有望推动广告收入持续增长。公司自研游戏《逃离鸭科夫》销量表现 较好，验证了公司游戏品类年轻化及差异化竞争路线，后续亦有手游开发计 划及《三国：百将牌》等新游戏值得期待。公司游戏和效果广告收入占比持 续提升，费用控制得当，利润有望稳定增长。维持"买入"评级。 平台活跃度再破新高，广告收入加速增长 25Q3 平台活跃度及用户粘性稳健增长。DAU 达到 1.17 亿（yoy+9%），同 比增速较上半年进一步加快，日均使用时长 112 分钟，较去年同期增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of HKD 792.53, up from the previous HKD 759.47 [6][35]. Core Insights - Tencent's 3Q performance exceeded expectations with a revenue growth of 15.4%, driven by increases in value-added services, advertising, and fintech revenues, which grew by 16%, 21%, and 10% respectively [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit for 3Q increased by 18%, surpassing expectations by 7%, primarily due to higher earnings from associated companies [1][6]. - The report highlights the potential of Tencent's gaming segment, particularly with the upcoming release of "Delta Action" expected to generate over RMB 18 billion in revenue in 2026 [1][20]. Revenue and Profitability - 3Q revenue reached RMB 192.9 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 15.4%, exceeding the consensus estimate of RMB 188.9 billion [14]. - Gross profit for 3Q was RMB 108.8 billion, reflecting a gross margin of 56.4%, an improvement from the previous year [14]. - The adjusted operating profit margin for 3Q was 37.6%, indicating strong operational efficiency [14]. Gaming Segment Performance - The gaming revenue for 3Q grew by 15% domestically and 43% internationally, driven by titles such as "Honor of Kings" and "Delta Action" [2][20]. - The report anticipates that Tencent's gaming pipeline will peak in 2026, with significant titles set to launch, including "Rock Kingdom: World" and "Honor of Kings World" [2][28]. Advertising and AI Integration - Advertising revenue increased by 21% in 3Q, with AI-driven enhancements contributing to eCPM improvements [3][33]. - The introduction of the AIM+ system is expected to attract more small and medium advertisers, enhancing overall advertising performance [3][33]. Financial Technology Growth - The fintech segment reported a revenue growth of 10% in 3Q, with a gross margin of 50.2% [4][14]. - The WeChat mini-store's GMV is experiencing rapid growth, supported by a low overlap of public and private domain users, indicating potential for further user acquisition [4][12]. Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been adjusted upward for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of RMB 755.3 billion, RMB 852.3 billion, and RMB 954 billion respectively [35][36]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 2,655 billion, RMB 3,012 billion, and RMB 3,443 billion, reflecting a strong growth trajectory driven by AI and gaming [35][36].

Macro Insights - The effectiveness of policy tools on social financing is yet to be fully realized, with October's new RMB loans and social financing both showing a year-on-year decrease, reflecting a weak real estate cycle and the impact of local and corporate debt replacement loans [2][3] - M1 and M2 growth rates have slightly declined but remain relatively fast, with M2 at 8.2% year-on-year and M1 at 6.2% [2][3] Banking Sector - In October, social financing increased by 815 billion RMB, significantly below the expected 1.53 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion RMB, indicating a slowdown in credit demand [3] - The banking sector's configuration value has improved, with recommendations for quality regional banks such as Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Chengdu Bank, as well as stable dividend payers like Shanghai Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3] Machinery Industry - The FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading) sector is expected to see accelerated order releases due to the transition to deep-sea oil and gas development, supported by a favorable financing environment from the Fed's interest rate cuts [4] - Key companies to watch include CIMC, China Shipbuilding, and Bohai Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from this investment cycle [4] A-Share Market - The A-share earnings cycle is showing signs of improvement, with structural differentiation narrowing, particularly in advanced manufacturing and TMT sectors [5] - Recommendations include focusing on industries with dual supply-demand improvements, such as railways, textiles, and photovoltaic equipment [5] Communication Sector - Gaode Infrared has entered a new phase of mass production for complete equipment systems, with a target price of 18.90 RMB based on a 70x PE valuation for 2026 [6] - The company is expected to benefit from expanding product categories and customer bases in both domestic and international markets [6] AI and Technology - Industrial Fulian is experiencing rapid growth in its AI server business, with Q3 GPU AI server revenue increasing over five times year-on-year, and a positive outlook for Q4 [7] - The company maintains a target price of 100.0 RMB, reflecting strong demand in AI infrastructure [7] Gaming and Entertainment - Aubo Holdings reported a decline in market share to 11.8% in Q3 2025, attributed to the gradual phasing out of satellite entertainment venues and increased competition [8] - The company’s net income decreased by 6% year-on-year, indicating challenges in attracting customers [8] Retail Sector - Gao Xin Retail's revenue for the first half of FY26 was 30.5 billion RMB, down 12.1% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.2 billion RMB [13] - The new management has outlined a three-year reform plan aimed at improving supply chain and organizational structure, with a projected dividend yield of around 9% [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 14.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 299.1 billion RMB, which exceeded both the consensus and the firm's expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was 5.8 billion RMB, a decline of 56.0% year-on-year, but still better than expected due to better-than-expected operating profit in the retail segment and non-recurring gains [1] - The report highlights the improvement in operational efficiency and the potential for narrowing losses in the food delivery segment, alongside a robust growth trend in daily necessities sales [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for JD Retail in Q3 2025 was 250.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and operating profit of 14.8 billion RMB, up 27.7% [2][11] - The report notes that the revenue from the electronic products category grew by 4.9% to 128.6 billion RMB, while daily necessities saw an 18.8% increase to 97.5 billion RMB [2] User Growth and Engagement - Active user numbers grew by 40% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with annual active users surpassing 700 million [3] - The frequency of purchases per user also increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating improved user engagement [3] Operational Efficiency - The food delivery segment achieved a double-digit growth in GMV quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased order volume and improved order structure [3] - The report emphasizes the narrowing of overall operating losses in the food delivery business, attributed to enhanced supply chain efficiency and disciplined investment [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 30.5 billion RMB in 2025, 38.1 billion RMB in 2026, and 51.1 billion RMB in 2027 [4][18] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 51.04 USD per ADS and 198.32 HKD per ordinary share, reflecting a valuation multiple of 17.2x, 13.7x, and 10.2x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [21][23]

证券研究报告 AI 服务器与 800G 交换机呈指数级增长，算力需求全面兑现 2025 年第三季度，公司 CSP AI 服务器营收同比增长超 3 倍，GPU AI 服务 器营收增长超 5 倍。公司展望第四季度将延续强劲势头，预计 CSP AI 服务 器营收同比增超 4 倍，GPU AI 服务器营收同比增长或超 5 倍，预计 CSP AI 相关业务有望占整体云计算业务收入 70%以上。与此同时，网络基础设施 同步升级，800G 交换机业务成为另一增长极，Q3 营收同比增超 27 倍， Q4 公司预计持续放量，营收同比有望增长 4.5 倍，显示出 AI 集群建设带动 的高速网络需求同样旺盛。展望明年，我们维持机柜交付 10 万台的预测， 展望 2025/2026/2027，我们预计包含 AI 服务器在内的公司云计算业务同比 有 望 增 长 83.6%/103.3%/24.5% ， 占 比 或 将 逐 年 提 升 到 65.7%/80.9%/84.9%，成为公司最重要成长引擎。 零组件自供与客户绑定，毛利率企稳回升可期 市场普遍关注 AI 服务器业务高营收下的盈利能力。工业富联 2025 年前三 季度毛利率为 6. ...

证券研究报告 大麦娱乐 (1060 HK) 港股通 阿里鱼增长强劲，现场娱乐稳健发展 公司 FY26H1 营收 49.47 亿元，同增 33%，主因 IP 衍生品中阿里鱼强劲增 长；归母净利润 5.20 亿元，同增 54%，主因阿里鱼表现优异及投资亏损同 比收窄；经调整 EBITA 5.50 亿元，同降 14%，主要系去年同期经调整 EBITA 包含 1.6 亿元的一次性金融资产减值拨回，剔除该次一次性收益后，公司经 调整 EBITA 同增 14%。公司衍生品业务聚焦阿里鱼、增长强劲，C 端战略 有望打开成长空间；大麦演出票务业务稳健增长，未来海外拓展值得期待， 现场演出内容投资积极拉动。维持"买入"评级。 FY26H1 公司演出内容与科技业务收入 13.39 亿元，同增 14.54%；分部业 绩（扣除成本及销售费用）7.54 亿，同增 4.72%。营收增长主因：1）演出 票务业务带动，但受限于演出内容供给增速放缓，场馆资源有限，增速有所 放缓；2）现场娱乐内容业务收入同比增速超过 50%，主因公司拓展大型演 唱会头部项目，并参与音乐节、脱口秀、话剧等品类的主办或投资。我们认 为其分部业绩增速低于收入增速，主 ...

证券研究报告 禾赛科技 (HSAI US) 关注 Robotics lidar 新领域新应用 | 华泰研究 | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 11 月 13 日│美国 | 汽车零部件 | 目标价(美元): | 30.72 | 禾赛科技发布 2025 年第三季度业绩，营业收入为人民币 7.95 亿元 （yoy+47.5%，qoq+12.6%），毛利率为 42.1%（yoy-5.6pct，qoq-0.4pct）。 GAAP 净利润为人民币 2.56 亿元，同比扭亏为盈，环比增长 481%。 Non-GAAP 净利润为人民币 2.877 亿元，同比扭亏为盈，环比增长 292%。 公司指引 4 季度激光雷达出货量将超 60 万台，营业收入超 10 亿元人民币。 我们看好公司在 ADAS 产品和 Robotics 产品未来持续的高速增长，看好公 司在光芯片领域的技术壁垒带来稳定的毛利率水平。维持"买入"评级，目 标价 30.72 美元。 ADAS 领域：下游核心客户需求持续保持高速增长 公司 ADAS 激光雷达三 ...

证券研究报告 金斯瑞生物科技 (1548 HK) 港股通 传奇生物亏损收窄，集团蓝图明晰 2025 年 11 月 13 日│中国香港 生物医药 公司联营公司传奇生物（持股比例 48%）发布 2025 年三季报业绩： CARVYKTI 前三季度实现销售额 13.32 亿美元（+112%yoy），其中 Q3 销 售额 5.24 亿美元（+19%qoq，+83%yoy）；前三季度传奇生物实现净亏损 2.66 亿美元，其中 Q3 净亏损 0.40 亿美元，同比/环比均大幅减亏（1Q/2Q25 净亏损 1.01/1.25 亿美元，3Q24 净亏损 1.25 亿美元）。我们看好公司各业 务板块盈利有序增长/扭亏，维持"买入"评级。 CARVYKTI 销售潜力释放中，传奇生物预计 2026 年扭亏 CARVYKTI 增长强劲，Q1/Q2/Q3 分别实现销售额 3.69/4.39/5.24 亿美元 （+10/19/19%qoq），我们估测主因：1）在前线患者中渗透率提升，截至 Q3 美国市场需求中 60%来自前线适应症；2）覆盖治疗中心增长，已覆盖 美国治疗中心 131 个（包括 38 个社区医院），已覆盖全球治疗中心 24 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.18 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 30.5 billion for the first half of FY26, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.2 billion, which aligns with the profit warning range [6][10]. - The new management has outlined a three-year transformation plan focusing on supply chain, store, and organizational structure reforms, with a commitment to high dividend payouts [6][9]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.085 per share, with an expected annual dividend yield of approximately 9% [6]. Financial Performance - Revenue for FY26 is projected to be RMB 64.755 billion, reflecting a decline of 9.5% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 38.85 million for FY26, a significant drop of 90.41% year-on-year [5][12]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 25.3% due to product mix optimization and increased private label penetration [8][9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a nationwide procurement model to enhance pricing power, with a goal of achieving a 10% contribution from private label sales over the next three years [9]. - Store renovations are underway to transform locations into community lifestyle centers, with plans to complete over 200 store renovations within three years [9]. - The company aims to increase online sales contribution to 40-50% over the next three years, supported by the establishment of front warehouses [9]. Market Conditions - The competitive landscape has intensified, leading to a decrease in average transaction value, with same-store sales declining by 11.7% [7][9]. - Online sales showed resilience with a 7.4% increase in order volume, contributing to a 2.1% growth in online same-store sales [7][9]. - Rental income decreased by 7.0% year-on-year due to ongoing tenant restructuring and temporary impacts from store renovations [7].