证券研究报告 港股通 2025 年 11 月 26 日│中国香港 互联网 同程公布 3Q25 业绩：收入 55 亿元，yoy+10.4%，基本符合 VA 一致预期 （简称预期）的 54.9 亿元；经营利润 11.6 亿元，超预期 7.5%，经营利润 率持续优化，yoy+1.5pct，主要来自于精细化补贴和费用管控；调整后净利 润 10.6 亿元，超预期 2.8%。公司本季度收入表现基本符合预期，利润超预 期。我们看好国内旅游的需求韧性，同时公司高品质酒店占比提升，带来结 构性改善。维持"买入"评级。 公司收入基本符合预期，酒店/机票价格改善贡献正向驱动 公司 3Q25 收入 55 亿元，yoy+10.4%，基本符合预期。拆分来看,核心 OTA 业务中，住宿及预定服务收入达 15.8 亿元，yoy+14.7%，基本符合预期。 暑期旅游旺季需求释放，同时公司高品质酒店预订占比提升，客房量增长超 20%，而酒店价格止跌回正，成为收入增长正向驱动。交通业务持续稳健增 长，收入 22.09 亿元，yoy+9.0%，主要源于用户的需求增加以及持续丰富 的增值产品及服务，且机票票价止跌，我们预计未来交通业务量将保持稳健 增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [6] Core Insights - Alibaba's cloud revenue continues to accelerate, and the flash purchase business is reducing losses, indicating a positive trajectory for the company [1] - The management expresses confidence in the growth of AI demand and plans to invest further in AI and cloud services to enhance synergies [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for FY26, FY27, and FY28, reflecting better-than-expected performance in Q2 FY26 and improvements in the flash purchase business [4][17] Financial Performance - Alibaba's total revenue for Q2 FY26 was 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The adjusted EBITA for Q2 FY26 was 9.1 billion yuan, down 77.6% year-on-year, but better than the forecasted 7.7 billion yuan [1] - The cloud segment's revenue grew by 34.5% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth rate of 28% [3] Business Segments - The Chinese e-commerce group's revenue increased by 15.5% to 132.6 billion yuan in Q2 FY26, driven by improved monetization rates [2] - The flash purchase business has shown a significant reduction in losses, with management indicating that losses per order have halved since October [2] - AI-related revenue has been growing at a triple-digit rate for nine consecutive quarters, now accounting for over 20% of external commercial revenue [3] Profit Forecasts and Valuation - The adjusted non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are set at 105.8 billion yuan, 131.0 billion yuan, and 159.7 billion yuan, respectively [4][17] - The target price for Alibaba's stock is set at 214.9 USD for US shares and 209.0 HKD for Hong Kong shares, corresponding to PE ratios of 36.3, 29.3, and 24.1 for FY26, FY27, and FY28 [4][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.40 [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.99 billion for FY26H1, showing a year-on-year decline of only 1.1%, indicating a significant improvement from previous periods [1]. - The operating profit reached HKD 6.82 billion, up 0.7% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 17.5%, the highest in nearly five years [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.53 billion, essentially flat compared to the previous year [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, reflecting confidence in future growth [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY26H1, the company achieved a gross margin of 30.5%, supported by an increase in high-margin priced jewelry and rising gold prices [1]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) for mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau was reported at +2.6% and +4.4%, respectively, showing a significant year-on-year improvement of 30.0 and 35.2 percentage points [2]. - The retail sales of priced gold and jewelry in mainland China showed SSSG of +3.1% and +8.3%, while in Hong Kong/Macau, the figures were +8.5% and +6.1% [2]. Store Network Optimization - The company is optimizing its store network by closing inefficient stores and opening new flagship stores, with a net closure of 609 stores in FY25H1 [3]. - The average monthly sales of new stores opened in FY26H1 reached HKD 1.3 million, a 72% increase year-on-year, indicating improved productivity [3]. - The company plans to open six new stores in Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Canada by June 2026, with a forecasted net closure of 910 stores for the fiscal year [3]. Market Trends and Outlook - Retail sales from October 1 to November 18, 2025, showed a strong growth of 33.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [4]. - The implementation of a new gold tax policy in early November is expected to raise industry compliance standards, potentially benefiting the company due to its robust supply chain and brand strength [4]. - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for FY26 to be HKD 8.12 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [5].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy in 2025 has shown significant expansion without improving fixed asset investment growth, which declined by 1.7% from January to October due to resources being allocated to debt repayment and other non-immediate projects [2] - For 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in special bond issuance to approximately 5 trillion [2] Group 2: Aerospace and Defense Industry - The military's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for modernization and includes a new structure of "4 military branches + 4 combat arms," focusing on mechanization, information technology, and intelligence [4] - In 2024, the revenue of 119 listed defense companies reached 419.43 billion, a 25.24% increase from 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.79% [4] - By Q3 2025, these companies reported a total revenue of 280.18 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.23% [4] Group 3: Internet Industry - NetEase - NetEase's game "Yanyun" launched overseas on November 15 and quickly reached the top 4 on Steam's bestseller list, with expected revenue contributions of 2 to 3 billion in 2026 [5] - The game "Dream of Fantasy" is projected to generate an additional 4 to 6 billion in revenue in 2025, indicating strong market performance [5] - Current valuations for NetEase remain low, with expectations for revenue and profit growth in the second half of the year [5] Group 4: Financial Services - Lexin - Lexin reported a net profit of 510 million in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68% [6] - The net profit take rate improved to 2.0%, attributed to reduced marketing expenses following a decrease in loan issuance [6] - The company is facing potential challenges in Q4 2025 due to tightening liquidity in the lending market, which may impact loan quality and profitability [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $6.00 [7]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance showed steady results with a net profit of 510 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 68% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%. However, challenges are anticipated in Q4 2025 due to tightening loan supply and rising risks [1][4]. - The net profit take rate (NTR) increased to 2.0% in Q3 2025, primarily driven by reduced marketing expenses following a decrease in loan disbursements [1][4]. - The company is actively repurchasing shares, having utilized $25 million of its $50 million buyback plan [1]. Performance Summary Financial Performance - Q3 2025 net profit reached 510 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 68% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2% [1]. - The NTR improved to 2.0% from 1.92% in Q2 2025, attributed to lower marketing expenses [1][4]. - The company anticipates a significant decline in Q4 2025 profits to approximately 340 million RMB, a decrease of 34% from Q3 2025, due to reduced loan volumes and increased credit costs [4]. Risk Assessment - The first-day overdue rate increased slightly by 0.05% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a minor uptick in risk [2]. - The company has been cautious in provisioning, with credit costs rising by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, now accounting for 4.15% of loan balances [2]. Loan Disbursement Trends - New loan disbursements in Q3 2025 decreased by 3.8% quarter-on-quarter to 50.9 billion RMB, primarily due to a reduction in the company's ICP business [3]. - The report forecasts a further decline in loan disbursements by approximately 10% in Q4 2025, driven by regulatory changes and increased risk aversion [3]. Valuation Adjustments - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down to 1.81 billion RMB, 1.66 billion RMB, and 2.48 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting significant adjustments of -17.1%, -48.3%, and -31.2% [5][12]. - The target price has been adjusted down to $6.00 from $12.00, based on a revised expected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.53x for 2026 [5][14].

证券研究报告 航天军工 新装备建设周期下的新结构 华泰研究 2025 年 11 月 25 日│中国内地 年度策略 复盘"十四五"：军工体量迈上新台阶 我军建设"十四五"规划，是国防和军队现代化新"三步走"战略的起步规 划，也是实现建军一百年奋斗目标的蓝图设计。"十四五"期间，我军构建 起"4 支军种+4 支兵种"的新型军兵种结构布局，以机械化为基础、信息 化为主导、智能化为方向，武器装备建设实现跨越式发展。随着新一代主战 武器装备研发列装，军工板块上市公司营收规模迈上新台阶。2024 年，中 信国防军工指数 119 只成分股实现营收合计 4194.35 亿元，较 2020 年营收 合计 3349.01 亿元增长 25.24%，复合增速 5.79%；2025Q1-Q3，119 家军 工上市公司营收合计 2801.84 亿元，同比增长 3.23%。同时，武器装备科 研生产能力也得到提升，2025Q3 末，119 家军工上市公司固定资产合计 1671.53 亿元，较 2020 年末固定资产合计 1089.32 亿元增长 53.45%。 展望"十五五"：或将由"量"的增值转向"质"的提升 党的二十届四中全会着眼强国建 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The overall market experienced a pullback last week, but funding pressure is expected to improve marginally due to a rebound in private equity registrations and public fund launches, with private fund registrations rising to 337, exceeding 300 for two consecutive weeks [2][3] - The peak of A-share unlock market value has passed, and the net reduction in industrial capital has shown a marginal decline, indicating a reduction in funding supply pressure [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Analysis - In the construction industry, the supply and demand remain weak, with new home transactions showing a decline while second-hand home transactions have slightly increased [2] - The industrial sector shows strong freight volume performance, but production rates are mixed, with some sectors like coking and independent refineries seeing an increase, while the chemical and automotive sectors remain weak [2] Group 3: Energy Sector Insights - In the global gas turbine market, new orders increased by 95% year-on-year to 24GW in Q3 2025, driven by various factors including energy policy shifts and AI power demand [5] - The high demand for gas turbines is expected to boost exports for domestic component manufacturers, with companies like Yingliu and Haomai Technology positioned to benefit [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas to approximately 5 trillion yuan to support debt resolution and other initiatives [6][7] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference will serve as a key observation point for policy reserves and future deployments [6] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - Kangnuo Ya-B (2162 HK) is highlighted for its potential in the global autoimmune pipeline, with a market cap increase of over 75% recently, and promising early clinical data for its CM512 product [9] - Black Sesame Intelligence (2533 HK) is recognized for its advancements in the robotics sector with the launch of the SesameX multi-dimensional intelligent computing platform, indicating strong growth potential [10]

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 3Q25 全球气电回顾与展望：景气度持 续外溢，零部件与整机出海双击 华泰研究 3Q25 全球燃机订单同增 95%，单季度需求再创历史新高 根据 McCoy 统计，3Q25 全球燃气轮机新增订单同增 95%至 24GW。海外 大选后能源政策右转、中东油转气、AI 电源需求多因素推动全球燃气轮机 景气度继续上行。我们看好海外燃气轮机主机的量价齐升，继续推荐西门子 能源 ENR、哈尔滨电气、东方电气。相关公司包括上海电气。此外，全球 燃机高景气有望带动国内热端叶片、冷端缸体等部件企业出口机遇。相关公 司包括应流股份、豪迈科技、鹰普精密。 3Q25 回顾：美国需求维持半壁江山，轻燃接单阶段性放缓 分区域来看：北美市场持续贡献 50%+的新接订单。根据 McCoy，3Q25 在>10MW 燃机市场中，北美市场新接订单 12.7GW，环比+14%，占到全 部新接订单的~53%。 分企业来看：亚洲市场回暖带动 MHI 市占率修复。我们估算 3Q25 在>10MW 燃机市场中，GEV、MHI、ENR 按功率的市占率分别为 31%、30%、21%， 得益于亚洲市场回暖（根据 MHI 季报数据披 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the telecommunications and AI computing chain, including ZTE Corporation, NewEase, Ruijie Networks, Zhongji Xuchuang, China Telecom, Haige Communication, China Mobile, and Shanghai Hantong [9][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing concerns regarding the sustainability of the AI "bubble" and the effectiveness of Scaling Law, while expressing optimism about the performance of Gemini 3 and Banana Pro, which have exceeded initial expectations [2][3]. - The AI computing chain is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on Google's core components such as optical modules and liquid cooling systems [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the generational leap in capabilities of Gemini 3, which has achieved significant benchmarks in reasoning and multimodal tasks, thereby shortening the time from investment to revenue [20][14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications index fell by 2.51% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 3.90% and 5.13%, respectively [2][13]. - Concerns about the overseas AI "bubble" are prevalent, particularly regarding the effectiveness of Scaling Law and the sustainability of ROI [2][3]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends several companies within the AI computing chain, including: - ZTE Corporation (Buy, target price: 64.34) [41] - NewEase (Buy, target price: 476.71) [41] - Ruijie Networks (Buy, target price: 102.51) [41] - Zhongji Xuchuang (Buy, target price: 626.68) [41] - China Telecom (Buy, target price: 9.11) [41] - Haige Communication (Buy, target price: 13.70) [41] - China Mobile (Buy, target price: 126.20) [41] - Shanghai Hantong (Buy, target price: 28.28) [41] - China Unicom (Hold, target price: 7.56) [41] AI Computing Chain Insights - The report notes that the performance of Gemini 3 and Nano Banana Pro has significantly advanced the capabilities in reasoning and multimodal tasks, indicating a strong integration into the AI ecosystem [20][14]. - The demand for AI computing resources is expected to grow, driven by the increasing need for reasoning capabilities and the expansion of cloud token scales [20][14]. Financial Performance - ZTE Corporation reported a revenue of 100.52 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12%, but a net profit decline of 33% [42]. - NewEase's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222%, with a net profit increase of 284% [44]. - Ruijie Networks reported a revenue of 10.68 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with a net profit increase of 65% [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.23 HKD, based on a 12.0x PS for 2026E, reflecting a 10% premium over comparable companies [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is making significant strides in the robotics industry with the launch of the SesameX multi-dimensional intelligent computing platform, which emphasizes safety and intelligence, facilitating rapid product deployment in real-world scenarios [1][2]. - Strategic partnerships with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Junsheng Electronics are expected to enhance the integration of chips and optical modules, providing new technological solutions for the smart automotive and robotics sectors [1][3]. - The company is actively building an ecosystem in the robotics field, collaborating with industry partners to promote the application of its technology in smart warehousing, transportation, and industrial automation, with commercialization expected to accelerate [2]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.4 billion, 14.2 billion, and 20.4 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 76.8%, 69.3%, and 44.0% [4][19]. - The report anticipates a comprehensive layout for edge AI, ranging from low-power to high-performance chips, supporting the company's optimistic outlook in the robotics and optical communication sectors [4][19].