证券研究报告 Energy Transfer (ET US) 核心能源基建，构筑价值护城河 2025 年 7 月 02 日│美国 燃气及分销 首次覆盖 Energy Transfer 并给予"买入"评级，目标价 23.34 美元（25 年 10x EV/EBTIDA）。ET 凭借全产业链布局、Permian 核心地位及出口龙头 优势，在能源转型中占据"基础设施红利"。财务稳健+分红增长+管理层执 行力构成抗风险壁垒，美国电力需求增长与 LNG 全球化机遇提供上行弹性， 其不可替代的资产网络、高可预见性现金流及新兴业务布局，使其成为兼顾 防御性与成长性的能源基础设施核心标的。 不可替代的资产网络：全美能源流动的"基础设施骨干" 2024 年末 ET 拥有全美 18%油气管道网络，控制 Permian Basin 28%原油 外输量及 25%天然气收集量，NGL 分馏能力占全美 30%，全球最大 Mont Belvieu 枢纽处理成本较行业低 20%。能源转型下，IEA 预测美国 LNG 出口 量 2030 年或翻倍至 240 MTPA，ET 在手产能 16.5 MTPA、已签 20 年长约 锁定 80%以上产能 ...

证券研究报告 新和成 (002001 CH) 2025 年 7 月 02日│中国内地 化学制品 新和成 7 月 1 日发布 25H1 业绩预告：25H1 预计实现归母净利 33.0-37.5 亿元（yoy+50%-70%），扣非归母净利 32.5-37.0 亿元（yoy+51%-71%）。 其中 Q2 预计实现归母净利 14.2-18.7 亿元（yoy+6%-40%），扣非归母净 利 13.7-18.2 亿元（yoy+5%-40%）。考虑到蛋氨酸等产品格局较好下高盈 利有望维持，新材料及香精香料业务稳步发展，维持"增持"评级。 25H1 净利预计同比增长，主要系营养品主产品量价同比增长 据 7 月 1 日公司公告，25H1 公司预计实现归母净利 33.0-37.5 亿元，同比 增长 50%-70%，主要系营养品板块主产品销量、销售价格同比增长。据博 亚和讯，25H1 公司主产品维生素 A/维生素 E/固体蛋氨酸市场均价为 9.2/11.9/2.2 万元/吨，同比+9%/+77%/0%，主要系 24Q2 以来，维生素行 业由于国内外供应不稳定等因素，价格迎来一轮显著上行。 今年维生素需求淡季影响下价格走弱，蛋氨 ...

证券研究报告 东京电子 (8035 JP) 华泰研究 首次覆盖 投资评级(首评): 买入 目标价(日元): 32,000.00 黄乐平，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050001 SFC No. AUZ066 huangleping@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 陈旭东 研究员 SAC No. S0570521070004 SFC No. BPH392 chenxudong@htsc.com 于可熠 研究员 SAC No. S0570525030001 SFC No. BVF938 yukeyi@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 受益中美先进工艺投资机会 基本数据 | 目标价 (日元) | 32,000.00 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (日元 截至 6 月 30 日) | 27,680 | | 市值 (日元百万) | 12,681,045 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (日元百万) | 91,426 | | 52 周价格范围 (日元) | 16,560.00-37,964.28 | | BVPS (日元) | 3,902 | 股价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the technology sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a new trend of A-share listed technology companies pursuing secondary listings in Hong Kong, with 16 semiconductor/consumer electronics companies having submitted prospectuses as of June 30, 2025, significantly higher than the same period in 2024 [4][6] - The secondary listings in Hong Kong are expected to provide diversified financing channels for companies, enhance their international market recognition, and support their global expansion strategies [4][5] - The report notes that investors in Hong Kong can take advantage of the price discrepancies between A-shares and H-shares, with a median discount rate of approximately -17% for five companies listed in Hong Kong in 2025 [6][7] Summary by Sections Section: Investment Opportunities for Listing Companies - Secondary listings in Hong Kong can optimize shareholder structures by attracting diverse global investors, which may lead to more long-term and strategic investments [5] - The "fast placement" mechanism in Hong Kong allows companies to complete large-scale placements quickly, improving fundraising efficiency [5] - Increased international recognition can help companies attract high-end talent and expand their international customer base [5] Section: Short-term and Long-term Perspectives for Hong Kong Investors - Short-term focus should be on the degree of discount during issuance, while long-term focus should be on the quality improvement of the Hang Seng Tech Index [6] - The report indicates that the stock prices of core Chinese technology assets in Hong Kong have outperformed the US tech giants, with a 26% increase since the beginning of the year [6] Section: Implications for A-share Investors - The report suggests that the recent decline in the AH premium to a five-year low is partly driven by the secondary listings of core technology assets in Hong Kong [7] - A-share investors may see opportunities for asset value reassessment, indirectly enhancing the investment appeal of core technology assets in A-shares [7]

今日早参 2025 年 7 月 02 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 史进峰 经济政策与国际关系首席研究员 邮箱：shijinfeng@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国短期增长放缓，但财政货币宽松预期双双升温 战略：政策观察双周报：7 月的三大宏观焦点 近两周经济政策的核心脉络包括：1. 高层对地方新一轮密集调研，房地产的 关注度边际提升；2. 央行货币委员会二季度例会明确了贸易壁垒增加和物价 持续低位运行挑战；3. 陆家嘴论坛公布了多项金融措施，深化科创板和创业 板的改革是其中重要增量；4. 李强总理在夏季达沃斯论坛进一步释放中国经 济增长稳健的信心和持续扩大对外开放的决心。我们认为 7 月可能又迎来了 政策观察的重要窗口期，三大宏观事件值得关注：对等关税截止日、中欧峰 会、政治局对下半年经济工作的部署。短期 5000 亿新型政策性金融工具的 落地情况，以及消费和地产数据的边际趋弱后如何进一步提振消费和推动房 地产巩固回稳的态势是重点。 风险提示：外部冲击超预期；增量政策落地节奏和力度不及预期。 研报发布日期： ...

证券研究报告 华泰研究 2025 年 7 月 01 日│中国内地 深度研究 能源结构转型加速，中国石油需求步入弱增长的"平台期" 基于宏观经济温和增长、新能源替代推进，以及石化原料需求释放的核心假 设，我们测算 25-27 年中国原油需求将稳定在 7.6-7.7 亿吨，同比增速为 0.5%-0.6%，增长引擎从"燃料主导"转向"材料主导"。进一步考虑气头 化工等的 NGL 需求，我们预计 25-27 年中国石油需求将逐年增长约 1%至 8.0-8.2 亿吨，由增长期步入弱增的"平台期"。我们认为中国对全球原油 需求增量贡献显著下降，需求达峰叠加 OPEC 协同趋弱及亚非拉等低成本 增量释放，中长期油价下行拐点显现，5-10 年内原油市场或进入边际成本 影响的买卖双方均衡时代。而伴随国内天然气消费量扩大，炼化行业格局优 化，关注具备天然气降本增量、低成本资源开发能力的高分红龙头配置机遇。 交通领域新能源替代效应显著，燃料需求拐点或已显现 交通领域电气化对燃料消费形成直接冲击，新能源替代正在重塑中国石油产 品需求格局。道路燃料消费与机动车存量结构紧密相关，基于我国乘用车和 货车等保有量平稳增长的假设，新能源汽车、 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural growth opportunities in the media industry driven by policy support, technological advancements, and product cycles, particularly in gaming, AI applications, IP derivatives, and short dramas [1][2][4] - The gaming sector is experiencing marginal improvements in market conditions, with a 17% year-on-year revenue growth in the first five months of 2025, compared to 7.5% in 2024, driven by long-term product operations and new releases [2][18] - AI applications are witnessing rapid user demand growth, with significant advancements in technology and a focus on AI agents, multi-modal models, and AI toys, indicating a robust market evolution [3][20] Group 2: Gaming Industry - The gaming market's total revenue for January to May 2025 reached 141.1 billion yuan, marking a 17% increase year-on-year, with mobile gaming showing a notable growth of 19.97% [18][22] - The number of game approvals has increased, with 811 game licenses issued in the first half of 2025, reflecting a supportive policy environment for the gaming industry [32][34] - Key gaming companies are expected to benefit from a strong product pipeline, with several new titles set to launch, enhancing both performance and valuation [2][39] Group 3: AI Applications - The demand for AI products is surging, with nine of the top 50 global AI applications surpassing 100 million monthly active users, indicating a strong market presence [3][20] - The report identifies three main directions for AI development in 2025: the rise of AI agents, enhanced multi-modal model capabilities, and the proliferation of AI toys, which are expected to drive market growth [3][20] - Companies like Tencent and others are integrating AI technologies into their gaming and content production processes, enhancing user engagement and operational efficiency [42][44] Group 4: IP Derivatives and Short Dramas - The IP derivatives market in China reached 174.2 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 30.3% year-on-year, with a projected CAGR of 14% from 2024 to 2029 [4][21] - The overseas short drama market is expanding rapidly, with a 1353% increase in revenue in 2024, indicating a significant growth opportunity for Chinese companies in international markets [4][21] - Leading IP companies are actively expanding their product lines and exploring innovative monetization strategies, leveraging popular IPs to attract a younger consumer base [4][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 24.30 [7][9]. Core Views - The company is positioned as one of the top three global suppliers of high-end electronic fabrics, benefiting from the increasing demand for advanced CCL and PCB driven by rapid updates in AI and robotics technology [1][2]. - The company has successfully expanded its production capacity and is expected to see significant growth in its high-end electronic fabric segment, particularly in low dielectric and low expansion products [2][3]. - The ongoing demand for high-end electronic fabrics is expected to enhance the company's profitability as it continues to upgrade its product offerings [3][4]. - The report highlights the strong barriers to entry in the high-end electronic fabric market, driven by increased complexity in production processes and the rising demand for high-frequency and high-speed PCB applications [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a stable supply of first-generation low dielectric electronic fabrics and is accelerating the production of second and third-generation products, with plans for mass production in 2024 [2]. - The company has increased its production target for special glass fiber fabrics from 26 million meters to 35 million meters, indicating a growing market share in high-end electronic fabrics [2]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the price of domestic electronic fabrics has increased, reflecting a tight supply situation, with significant price hikes observed in high-end products [3]. - The demand for high-end electronic fabrics is being driven by the booming AI server and switch market, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised upward to RMB 1.15, RMB 1.38, and RMB 1.62 respectively, reflecting a growth of 17.4%, 13.1%, and 16.6% compared to previous estimates [5]. - The report projects that the company's net profit from special glass fiber fabrics could reach RMB 310 million in 2025, with a reasonable market capitalization estimated at RMB 40.7 billion [5]. Valuation - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19x for traditional glass fiber and wind power blade segments, and 32x for electronic fabrics, leading to a target market value of RMB 40.7 billion [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the technology and computer sectors [5]. Core Insights - The demand for inference computing power is expected to grow faster than the decline in unit computing costs, driven by the increasing user penetration of AI applications and the continuous improvement of algorithms and hardware [1][24]. Summary by Sections Token Demand Growth - The monthly token call volume for Google increased from 9.7 trillion in April 2024 to 480 trillion in April 2025, a growth of 50 times [2][9]. - ByteDance's Volcano Engine reported a daily average token call volume of 16.4 trillion in May 2025, which is 137 times higher than in May 2024 [12][9]. Google Token Demand and Spending - Google's token call volume is projected to reach 2009 trillion in Q2 2025, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth of 223% [3][20]. - The unit computing cost for Google is expected to decrease, with a projected decline of 14% in April, 13% in May, and 13% in June 2025 [3][26]. Microsoft Token Demand and Growth - Microsoft's total token call volume is expected to reach 205 trillion in Q2 2025, reflecting a growth of approximately 100% [4][29]. - The increase in token calls is primarily driven by the rising user engagement with OpenAI's ChatGPT and the penetration of the Deep Research feature [29][30]. Capital Expenditure Projections - Google's inference computing power capital expenditure is projected to increase by 159% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, driven by the significant growth in token volume [24][28]. - The report anticipates that the overall inference computing power demand will continue to rise, offsetting the cost reductions from hardware iterations and algorithm optimizations [24][26].

证券研究报告 苏州银行 (002966 CH) 国资增持再加码，战略赋能促发展 2025 年 7 月 01日│中国内地 区域性银行 2025 年 6 月 30 日，苏州银行公告：1）公司实控人变动：大股东国发集团与 东吴证券合计持股比例增加至 15%，国发集团成为控股股东，苏州市财政局 成为苏州银行实际控制人；2）大股东进一步增持：国发集团计划自 2025 年 7 月 1 日起的 6 个月内增持不少于 4 亿元人民币。苏州银行植根优质区域， 战略目标清晰，业绩增长稳健，资产质量优异，股东持续增持彰显对其发展 前景信心和长期投资价值认可，我们维持此前业绩预测，给予买入评级。 大股东再度增持，彰显长期价值 大股东多次增持，彰显对苏州银行发展的坚定认可。国发集团为苏州市财政 局全资控股的金融投资平台，旗下囊括银行、保险、券商、信托等多元金融 牌照，是苏州银行第一大股东。年初以来国发集团及其一致行动人东吴证券 已向苏州银行完成两轮增持，累计增持 13358 万股，增持金额超 8 亿元， 即使考虑转债摊薄影响后，持股比例仍由年初的 14.0%提升至 15.0%。且此 前国发集团已于 6 月 26 日获批持股苏州银行 1 ...