Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.08 [1][5] Core Views - Despite short-term profit pressure, the company's development business scale and operational advantages remain industry-leading, with a stable market share in development business [1][2] - The company plans to launch 24 new projects in key cities in the second half of the year, supported by ample and high-quality land reserves, which is expected to provide solid support for sales recovery [1][3] - The overall performance is under pressure due to the adjustment in the real estate industry, but non-development business shows resilient growth [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 83.2 billion, down 4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.6 billion, down 17% year-on-year, which is below previous annual growth expectations of -6% [1][2] - The revenue from development business decreased by 5% to RMB 78 billion, with a gross profit margin of 15.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from 2024 [2] Market Position - The company achieved a total contract sales amount of RMB 120.2 billion in the first half of 2025, ranking second in the industry, with first place in 14 cities and top three in 31 cities [3] - The company acquired 17 new land parcels during the period, with a total land acquisition amount of RMB 40.4 billion, up 213% year-on-year, maintaining a focus on core areas [3] Financing and Cost Management - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of RMB 227.5 billion, down 5.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 4.9 times [4] - The average financing cost for the first half of 2025 was 2.9%, and the sales and administrative expense ratio was 3.8%, both remaining at industry low levels [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin assumptions for 2025-2027, with EPS estimates revised to RMB 1.39, RMB 1.48, and RMB 1.60 for the respective years [5] - The target price of HKD 19.08 is based on a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.49 times, consistent with comparable companies [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $199 million in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.5%, while operating profit decreased by 56.5% to $3.7 million due to increased labor costs [1][2] - The company aims to enhance customer experience and employee satisfaction, which may temporarily affect operating profit margins but is expected to strengthen the brand and improve operational quality in the long term [1][3] - The company is expanding its store network while focusing on quality, with a total of 126 stores operational as of Q2 2025, including new openings in Malaysia [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, lowering the adjusted net profit estimates by 43%, 21%, and 17% to $30 million, $52 million, and $68 million respectively [4][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was $199 million, with a year-over-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of $16 million, marking a turnaround from losses due to reduced foreign exchange losses [1][2] - For the first half of 2025, revenue reached $397 million, up 7% year-over-year, with a net profit of $28 million [1] Operational Insights - Same-store sales increased by 5.3% in Q2 2025, with notable performance in East Asia, particularly Japan [2] - The company has introduced a more value-oriented menu, resulting in a gross margin of 66.0%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year [2] Expansion Strategy - The company is actively pursuing its "Pomegranate Plan" to diversify its offerings and enhance customer experience, with over 10 new project tracks identified for future growth [3] - The company plans to continue exploring new markets and types of cuisine, including barbecue and fast food, to establish a second growth curve [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to increased operational costs, with a target price set at HKD 17.46, based on a 28x PE ratio for 2026 [4][10] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 67% in the coming years, despite slight adjustments due to rising labor costs [10][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.499 billion CNY for 1H25, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 326 million CNY, up 37.48% year-on-year, with a corresponding net profit margin of 13.0%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing operational quality and controlling the pace of store expansion, with a net increase of 48 stores in 1H25, bringing the total to 8,444 stores [1] - The company is expected to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year, alongside improvements in operational efficiency and revenue growth [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company's product sales revenue for 1H25 was 2.309 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.78%, while equipment sales revenue decreased by 62.05% to 48 million CNY [2] - The franchise and licensing fee income was 101 million CNY, up 2.37% year-on-year, with non-refundable initial fees contributing 46 million CNY, an increase of 4.97% [2] Gross Margin and New Product Launches - The gross margin for 1H25 was 32.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to supply chain and delivery efficiency improvements [3] - The company launched 55 new products in 1H25, significantly increasing the frequency of new product introductions compared to 21 in 1H24 [3] Store Operations and Expansion - As of the end of 1H25, the company operated 8,444 stores, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, focusing on penetrating lower-tier markets [4] - The company has also been expanding internationally, opening stores in several countries including South Korea, Malaysia, and the United States [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the profit forecast for the company, projecting net profits of 892 million CNY, 1.003 billion CNY, and 1.142 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.60, 0.68, and 0.77 CNY [5] - The target price is set at 12.11 HKD, reflecting a valuation premium based on the company's growth potential [5]

| 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 9 月 | 01 日│中国内地 | 仓储物流 | 目标价(人民币): | 14.29 | 建发股份发布半年报，2025 年 H1 实现营收 3153.21 亿元（yoy-1.16%）， 归母净利 8.41 亿元（yoy-29.87%），扣非净利 6.75 亿元（yoy-20.38%）。 其中 Q2 实现营收 1715.48 亿元（yoy-8.59%，qoq+19.32%），归母净利 2.57 亿元（yoy-56.85%，qoq-56.04%）。业绩下滑主要受累于家居业务， 租金下滑导致分部收入下滑 21%，产生公允价值变动和减值损失约 21 亿。 房地产以及家居业务仍受减值因素的影响，但供应链业务稳健发展。长期视 角下，我们看好公司融资优势、优质土储以及周转能力，尤其是建发房产产 品力优势持续提升，有望打开未来发展空间，叠加高股息加持，维持"买入"。 房地产业务："灯塔"级产品力推动销售增长，投拓积极优化土储 证券研究报告 建发股份 (60 ...

富茂推进异地扩张，期待 2H 弹性释放 2025 年 9 月 01 日│中国内地 餐饮 证券研究报告 同庆楼 (605108 CH) 同庆楼公布 1H25 业绩：公司 1H25 实现营收 13.3 亿元/yoy+4.67%，归母 净利 0.72 亿元/-11.06%，扣非归母净利 0.67 亿元/yoy-11.21%。其中 2Q25 实现营收 6.38 亿元/yoy+10.03%，归母净利 0.20 亿元/yoy+34.08%，扣非 净利 0.19 亿元/yoy+74.1%。在充满挑战的餐饮环境之下，1H25 公司各项 业务实现稳健增长，老店经营展现出较优的韧性，富茂酒店盈利能力得到一 定验证。随着 2H25 进入婚宴旺季、新店爬坡陆续结束、富茂酒店客房业务 逐渐投入运营，高经营杠杆有望撬动较大利润弹性。立足长期，公司锚定大 众性价比餐饮，老字号品牌稀缺，包厢+宴席+食品三轮驱动下异地扩张潜 能可期。维持"买入"评级。 1H 老店经营彰显韧性，2H 市场环境优化后期待主业增长提速 1H25 公司餐饮和住宿收入 11.7 亿元/yoy+4.0%，毛利率 15.4%/yoy-0.8pct； 食品业务收入 1.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Insights - The beverage sector is experiencing strong seasonal sales, with cost benefits offsetting competitive pressures, leading to stable profitability [14][20]. - The dairy sector shows flat demand in the first half of 2025, with expectations for improved performance during the upcoming holiday seasons [27][33]. - The beer sector faced demand pressure in Q2 due to policy factors, but cost benefits have become prominent [3][32]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue during the off-season, with leading companies focusing on channel adjustments [4][32]. - The condiment sector shows muted demand, with a focus on adjustments and cost improvements [5][32]. - The frozen food sector continues to face operational pressures, with industry price competition affecting profitability [6][32]. Beverage Sector Summary - The soft drink segment achieved Q2 revenue growth of 22.8% year-on-year, driven by strong travel demand and new product launches [14][25]. - Major raw material prices are declining, contributing to stable profitability despite competitive pressures [20][24]. - Key companies such as Nongfu Spring and Uni-President China are recommended for their robust revenue and profit growth [14][20]. Dairy Sector Summary - The dairy sector reported a revenue increase of 3.5% in Q2, with expectations for demand recovery during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [27][28]. - Leading companies like Yili and Mengniu are highlighted for their improved profitability due to lower raw milk costs [27][33]. - The sector's gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [32][33]. Beer Sector Summary - The beer sector's Q2 revenue grew by 1.8%, with profitability supported by cost reductions [3][32]. - Companies like Yanjing Beer and Qingdao Beer are recommended for their strong performance in the premium segment [3][32]. Snack Food Sector Summary - The snack food sector experienced a revenue decline of 0.3% in Q2, with leading companies focusing on inventory management and channel strategies [4][32]. - Companies such as Weidong and Yanjinpuzi are recommended for their potential benefits from category and channel advantages [4][32]. Condiment Sector Summary - The condiment sector saw a revenue increase of 4.5% in Q2, with a focus on channel replenishment and cost improvements [5][32]. - Companies like Haitian Flavoring and Angel Yeast are highlighted for their strong market positions [5][32]. Frozen Food Sector Summary - The frozen food sector reported a revenue increase of 2.6% in Q2, but profitability is under pressure due to intense competition [6][32]. - Companies such as Anjijia and Lihai Foods are recommended for their potential recovery in the upcoming seasons [6][32].

证券研究报告 宏观 特朗普对联储的施压升级 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 2025 年 9 月 01 日│中国内地 海外周报 海外一周概览 上周美国增长整体维持韧性，7 月 PCE 通胀数据温和回升。特朗普对联储 的施压升级，宣布罢免联储理事库克；美国上诉法院裁定对等关税和芬太尼 关税为非法，但短期内预计不会影响关税加征。全周来看，联储委员表态偏 鸽，市场对联储降息预期升温，美债收益率下行，美股上涨，美元小幅走强， 大宗商品整体上涨。本周关注欧元区 8 月 HICP（9 月 2 日）、美国 8 月 ISM 制造业指数（9 月 2 日）、美国 8 月非农就业数据（9 月 5 日）。 高频数据 高频数据显示美国居民消费仍有韧性，就业市场边际改善，住房销售偏弱。 增长方面，亚特兰大联储 GDP Now 指示美国三季度 GDP 增速为 3.5%。消 费方面，上周实际个人消费季比折年增速的 Nowcast 小幅上行至 2.3%， Redbook 零售指数显示 8 月美国零售同比小幅上行。就业市场方面，最新 一周首申人数下行至 22.9 万人，略好于预期的 23 万人(彭博一致预期，下 同)，续申高位下行至 195.4 万人， ...

Macro Insights - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar and a basket of currencies has been notable, with a 0.4% increase observed on August 28-29 [2] - The manufacturing PMI for August showed a slight recovery to 49.4% from 49.3% in July, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.3% from 50.1% in July, suggesting a stable outlook for the service sector [3] Investment Strategy - The technology sector is experiencing increased investor interest, with TMT transaction volume exceeding 40% of total market activity, indicating a shift towards fundamental-driven market behavior [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from Renminbi appreciation, such as consumption, non-bank financials, and electric new energy, which are currently at relatively low valuations [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility in investment strategies, particularly in the context of market volatility and sector rotation [8] Company Performance - Alibaba's Q1 FY26 revenue reached 247.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with adjusted EBITA declining by 13.7% [14] - Huichuan Technology reported a 26.73% increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 20.509 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.968 billion yuan, up 40.15% [18] - Zhonggu Logistics experienced a 41.6% increase in net profit for H1 2025, despite a 7.0% decline in revenue, attributed to high demand in the foreign trade container leasing market [19] Sector Analysis - The beverage sector showed strong sales performance, with revenue growth of 22.8% in Q2 2025, while the snack food sector faced challenges with a 0.3% decline [12] - The insurance sector is seeing a shift towards high-yield stocks, with the average allocation to FVOCI stocks increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 4.2% [10] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with China Overseas Development reporting a 4% decline in revenue for H1 2025, but maintaining a strong project pipeline for future growth [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 23.00 [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at RMB 480 million and net profit at RMB 140 million, representing year-on-year decreases of 24.5% and 17.1% respectively. The second quarter saw revenue and net profit drop to RMB 220 million and RMB 60 million, with year-on-year declines of 32.3% and 32.8% [2][3]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company is expected to benefit from the downstream demand for PA66 and recycled materials, and the industrial AI business is anticipated to bring new growth opportunities [2][5]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 46.2%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a continued improvement in profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenues of RMB 290 million from new materials, RMB 140 million from recycled and biodegradable materials, and RMB 50 million from industrial AI integration solutions, with year-on-year changes of -33.2%, -23.4%, and +108.7% respectively [3]. - The gross margins for these segments were 51.0%, 34.3%, and 53.1%, reflecting year-on-year changes of +7.3, -5.7, and +13.4 percentage points [3]. Cost and Cash Flow - The company's expense ratio increased to 15.5%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising sales, management, and R&D expenses [4]. - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was negative at RMB 70 million, a decline of RMB 160 million year-on-year, attributed to project execution stages and reduced sales collections [4]. Market Outlook - The government has shown support for the promotion of AI applications, which is expected to benefit the company's industrial AI solutions. The company plans to enhance its AI offerings in the second half of 2025 [5]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts slightly downward due to slower order execution, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to RMB 320 million, RMB 380 million, and RMB 460 million, reflecting a decrease of 16% for each year [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.76 CNY [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 101.3 billion CNY for 1H25, representing an 8% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of 3.25 billion CNY, up 42% year-over-year [1]. - The LCD business is expected to improve in 3Q25 due to the upcoming consumer electronics peak season, which will enhance the supply-demand balance and potentially restore ASPs [2]. - The OLED business is also anticipated to see improvements in shipment structure and profitability in 3Q25, driven by new orders from major North American clients [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved a revenue of 1,013 million CNY, with a gross margin of 14.4% and a net profit of 32.5 million CNY [1]. - For 2Q25, the revenue was 507 million CNY, with a gross margin of 13.0%, reflecting a decline due to reduced demand for LCD panels [1]. LCD Business Outlook - The average price of large-size LCD panels decreased by 3.2% year-over-year in 2Q25, impacting the company's profitability [2]. - The report forecasts a recovery in the LCD business in 3Q25 as clients prepare for the consumer electronics peak season [2]. OLED Business Outlook - The OLED segment faced challenges in 1H25 due to a deteriorating shipment structure and price competition [3]. - Anticipated improvements in 3Q25 are linked to new orders from major clients and the expiration of depreciation pressure on production lines [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 5.76 CNY is based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.52x for 2025, which is above the average of comparable companies [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 1.11x price-to-book ratio, indicating a historically low valuation level [4].