证券研究报告 东方电子 (000682 CH) 电力自动化先锋，虚拟电厂空间广阔 2025 年 6 月 30 日│中国内地 电气设备 首次覆盖东方电子并给予"买入"评级，目标价 12.6 元，对应 2025 年 20XPE。 公司为国内电力自动化先锋，持续内生外延，穿越行业周期，2008-2024 年 营收 CAGR 达 14.4%。基本盘业务（配用电、调度、输变电自动化）伴随 国内电网投资稳增长，同时出海带来更高增速，我们预计 2025-2027 年收 入增速在 12%~20%；此外，公司持续培育新增长极，虚拟电厂空间广阔， 新能源有望保持快增。 基本盘稳健向好，拓品类、扩市场带来更高增速 智能配用电、调度及云化、输变电自动化为公司的基本盘，合计营收占比在 8~9 成，伴随国内电网整体投资稳步增长，同时依靠产品品类拓展和加速开 拓海外业务带来更高增速，我们预计 2025-2027 年业务收入增速处在 12%~20%。公司在多个子板块位处领军地位，国内电表方面，行业正值替 换周期，新标准或带来量稳价升，公司市占率稳居前列，2024 年排名第四； 调度方面，公司承建南网总调云端系统建设，市场地位与技术壁垒较高； ...

证券研究报告 康缘药业 (600557 CH) 再看中新医药，重估创新价值 2025 年 6 月 30日│中国内地 中药 康缘药业作为中药创新药的龙头之一，2024 年全资收购中新医药，加码生 物创新药。随着季度基数回落、合规冲击解除，我们认为公司 2Q25 收入同 比环比均有望企稳恢复，2025~2026 年伴随中新医药在研项目数据读出， 生物创新药价值有望体现，带动公司价值重估，维持"买入"评级。 中新医药：海归科学家创立，聚焦代谢与神经，全资进入上市公司 中新医药成立于 2011 年，技术核心团队由海归与国内研发人才组成，创始 人张怡博士曾就职于施贵宝任首席科学家。收购前，中新医药 70%股权归 属康缘集团，30%股权归属南京康竹（中新医药核心团队持股平台）。11M24 公司以自有资金 2.7 亿元收购中新医药 100%股权。中新医药尚未盈利 （9M24 净资产-4.23 亿元），目前临床品种为 ZX2021（GGGF1 三靶长效 减重降糖融合蛋白）、ZX2010（GGF7 双靶长效降糖减重融合蛋白）、ZX1305 （rhNGF 注射液）、ZX1305E（rhNGF 滴眼液）。公司初步测算四条核心 管线 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 如何释放服务消费潜力 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 2025 年 6 月 30 日│中国内地 专题研究 如我们在《以旧换新的成效评估和后续展望》（2025/6/21）中分析，去年 9 月开始，"国补"相关消费品增速大幅回升，但对其他可选消费形成一定挤 压效应，鉴于 "国补"年化总额仅占可支配收入约 1.5%，而去年 4 季度以 来国补品类对零售增长的贡献高达 3 个百分点左右。下半年，随着补贴退潮， 此前被"挤出"的消费品类增长可能更快、尤其是服务消费。此时加大对高 频服务消费的支持力度可能事半功倍。本文从全球对比角度分析服务消费的 增长空间，并从短期及中长期探讨消费提升的政策选项。 1.中国 GDP 中总消费占比有所低估,但服务消费对比发达国家提升空 间较大 截至 2023 年，以支出法衡量的中国最终消费支出占名义 GDP 的比例约为 56.8%，低于日韩、欧美等发达经济体 65%-81%的水平。但可能由于统计 口径、估算方法等差异存在低估：1）住房消费采用成本法估算，较虚拟租 金的估算方法偏低；2）政府向居民提供的公共服务未计入家庭消费支出。 从消费结构看，中国服务消费占比偏弱。中国居民消费 ...

证券研究报告 关税影响显现，5 月工企利润同比转负 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 27 日│中国内地 动态点评 5 月工业企业利润数据点评 今年 5 月工业企业盈利同比增速较 4 月的 3%明显回落至-9.1%，出口相关 的中游制造业量价有所承压、或显示关税政策对企业利润率及订单的影响 显现，下游部分消费品行业或受促销影响、呈现"量增价跌"，亦对盈利形 成扰动。整体而言，工业企业收入同比增速从 4 月的 2.6%继续回落至 0.8%， 与 5 月出口增速放缓相印证，出口链相关行业盈利回升态势受阻，关税影响 或逐步凸显，电气机械、仪器仪表、专用设备、计算机通信等行业利润率及 收入增速均有回落；同时，油价及黑色系价格下跌对石化及煤炭开采等行业 利润率回升持续形成压制，对应中下游的石化加工相关行业盈利边际改善； 此外，汽车、服装、文教娱乐用品等行业营收增速回升，但盈利增速走弱， 或显示出购物节促销等因素对价格的拖累。 往前看，7 月 9 日"对等关税"豁免期后关税政策仍有较大扰动，外需不确 定性或对后续出口订单带来扰动，尤其是对企业利润率的影响或逐步显现。 内需层面，"以旧换新"政策补贴使用过半，虽然三四季度补贴 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 37.00 HKD [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's core competitive advantage lies in high-quality membership and comprehensive lifecycle management, with traditional beauty services as the foundation, complemented by medical beauty and sub-health services to extend customer lifecycles and enhance customer stickiness [1]. - The company is actively increasing its dividend payout ratio, optimizing its shareholder structure, and implementing long-term incentive mechanisms, which may improve liquidity and indicate potential for PE valuation recovery [1]. - The company is expected to continue industry consolidation and business acquisitions to enhance market share and strengthen economies of scale [2]. Financial Performance - The beauty and health services revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 1.443 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.9%, and the company plans to increase the number of direct and franchise stores [2]. - Medical beauty and sub-health services revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 928 million RMB and 201 million RMB, respectively, with significant growth rates of 9.1% and 98.9% year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 315.33 million RMB, 367.89 million RMB, and 418.15 million RMB, respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5][20]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has outlined three strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing shareholder value: establishing a long-term shareholder return mechanism, attracting quality long-term institutional investors, and implementing a core management equity incentive plan [4]. - The company aims to allocate no less than 50% of annual net profit attributable to shareholders for dividends from 2025 to 2027, barring special circumstances [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 25x for 2025, reflecting the company's position as a leading brand in beauty and health, with a target price of 37.00 HKD based on this valuation [5]. - The company’s cash position is strong, with nearly 1.4 billion RMB at the end of 2024, supporting its stable business development and ongoing market share enhancement [5].

2025 年北约峰会通过新国防支出目标，要求 2035 年国防与安全支出提高至 GDP 的 5%。因地缘安全环境和财政能力差异，各国实现路径存在差异：德 国、法国等国有望提前达标，而西班牙等国则面临较大挑战。整体而言，欧 盟的北约成员国防开支增加或将温和提振欧盟经济增速，但也可能导致财政 赤字上升、顺差收窄、国债收益率和欧元中枢上升。 风险提示：北约扩大军费开支计划实施进度不及预期；俄乌冲突加剧的风 险。 今日早参 2025 年 6 月 27 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：如何看待北约大幅提高国防支出的承诺? 研报发布日期：2025-06-26 研究员 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 宏观：关税豁免临近到期扰动全球贸易｜关税影响高频跟踪（6 月 25 日） 概览：贸易量上，6 月以来美国进口呈现前低后高走势，而韩国出口增速明 显改善，或由于 7 月 9 日对等关税豁免到期前美国抢进口、非美抢出口 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 71.20 [7][30]. Core Views - The launch of the YU7 SUV has exceeded market expectations with 289,000 units pre-ordered within the first hour, representing 82.5% of the company's previously announced annual shipment target for 2025 [2][4]. - The pricing of the YU7 is in line with market expectations, while its hardware specifications, including a 700 TOPS NVIDIA THOR chip and advanced driver assistance features, are above expectations [2][4]. - The AI glasses launched by the company are lightweight at 40g and feature color-changing technology, which has garnered positive market reception [3][4]. Summary by Sections Product Launch and Market Response - The YU7 SUV was launched with a pre-order of 200,000 units in three minutes and 289,000 units in one hour, significantly surpassing market expectations [2]. - The YU7 is available in nine colors, with a standard version offering a range of 835 km and equipped with advanced technology such as laser radar and a panoramic display [2]. AI Glasses - The AI glasses are priced at RMB 1,999 and weigh only 40g, featuring a Qualcomm AR1 chip and various functionalities including video calls and smart home control [3]. - The glasses have sold out on their launch night, indicating strong consumer interest [3]. Financial Projections - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at RMB 41 billion, RMB 51.3 billion, and RMB 63.2 billion respectively, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][6]. - The target price of HKD 71.20 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, which includes a valuation of HKD 26.3 per share for the automotive business [4][30]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a revenue increase from RMB 270.97 billion in 2023 to RMB 727.78 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.13% [6][38]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from RMB 0.76 in 2023 to RMB 2.52 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [6][38].

证券研究报告 美光科技 (MU US) | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 27 日│美国 | 半导体 | 美光于美东时间 6/25 盘后发布 FY25Q3 财报，盘后先涨约 7%后收窄至 1%， 主要系营收盈利指引均超预期，但 NAND 产能利用不足，美光宣布到 FY25 年底将削减 NAND 晶圆产能 10%以平衡供需。此外，鉴于美光股价从 4 月 初关税影响的低位到现在已翻倍，我们认为短期可能存在获利了结情绪。我 们重申美光将受益于：1）GPU 和 ASIC 一并带动的 HBM 需求提升，美光 表示正在向四个客户（包括英伟达、AMD（新增）、以及两大 ASIC 设计公 司，我们预测为博通和 Marvell）大批量供应 HBM；2）HBM 规格提升，将 逐步换代到 HBM4；3）英伟达游戏显卡需求拉动将 GDDR6X 和 GDDR7 等高端 DRAM 产品。重申"买入"。 美光 FY25Q3 营收盈利及下季度指引均超预期，利润率均环比上升 FY25Q3 营收 93.0 亿美元，同比+37%，环比+15%，超彭博一致预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In recent years, as the TGA/reserves ratio increases, the influence of the TGA account on US dollar liquidity has gradually grown. The TGA account, used by the US Treasury to manage government revenues and expenditures, is an important part of the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Its balance passively reflects the Treasury's revenue and expenditure behavior. The impact of TGA balance changes on US dollar liquidity should be understood within the framework of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, often causing short - term marginal disturbances, while overnight reverse repurchases act as a buffer. Historically, the debt ceiling is the core factor determining its balance changes, with the account balance typically decreasing first and then increasing after hitting the ceiling. It is expected that the current TGA balance will be depleted by the end of August. After the X - date, the Treasury's issuance of short - term bonds to replenish funds may deplete the ON RRP balance and affect the reserve scale, potentially putting pressure on US dollar liquidity [7]. Summary by Directory TGA Account Overview - The TGA account is a deposit account opened by the US Treasury at the Federal Reserve for managing government daily revenues and expenditures. It is an important part of the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, with its share significantly increasing after 2020. Its balance is passively generated, reflecting the Treasury's revenue and expenditure behavior. The establishment of the TGA account has multiple purposes such as revenue and debt management and policy coordination, but it also has some drawbacks, including mismatched cost - benefit of funds, complex management of funds from different sources, and policy signals interfering with the market. The selection of the TGA account balance requires a trade - off between safety and cost. Fiscal cycles, tax rhythms, government expenditure patterns, and monetary coordination all affect the TGA account balance [3]. - The TGA account balance is affected by the Treasury's "revenue and expenditure behavior" in the market. Revenue inflows mainly include taxes, treasury bond issuance, government fees, and emergency funds, while outflows mainly include debt repayment and fiscal expenditures. Economic conditions, tax seasonality, fiscal policies, debt ceilings, bond issuance management, and fiscal expenditure resilience all influence TGA account changes [12]. - The Treasury's transactions with different market participants can cause TGA account changes. When the Treasury issues treasury bonds, the subscription by the Fed, commercial banks, and money market funds will affect the TGA account balance, and the corresponding changes will be reflected in reserves, currency in circulation, and reverse repurchases. When the Treasury conducts fiscal revenue or expenditure, the change in the TGA account balance will correspond to changes in reserves and cash [18][19]. TGA Account's Impact on Liquidity Levels of US Dollar Liquidity - At the macro - aggregate level, liquidity is reflected in the supply scale of the monetary base, which the Federal Reserve can regulate through policy interest rates, balance - sheet expansion and contraction. Currently, the US dollar liquidity is generally abundant, but the policy interest rate remains high, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity. The current US liquidity management framework is based on abundant liquidity, with the Federal Reserve setting a price range for the policy interest rate and absorbing excess liquidity through commercial bank reserves and overnight reverse repurchases [31]. - At the micro - market level, liquidity can be divided into four levels: the commercial banking system, the repo market, the real - sector financing market, and the offshore US dollar market. Each market has corresponding quantitative and price indicators to measure liquidity [35]. Relationship between TGA Account and Liquidity - The impact of the TGA account on US dollar liquidity should be understood within the framework of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's policy determines the direction of liquidity, while TGA balance changes are more of a short - term marginal disturbance. During the Fed's balance - sheet expansion, a rising TGA balance's pressure on liquidity can be absorbed, but a rapid decline in the TGA balance may lead to short - term liquidity abundance. During the Fed's balance - sheet contraction, a falling TGA balance can partially relieve the pressure on liquidity, but a rapid rise in the TGA balance may cause short - term shocks to liquidity [68][69]. - There is an inverse relationship between the overnight reverse repurchase balance and the TGA account balance, which can smooth the impact of TGA account changes on market liquidity. When the TGA balance decreases, excess liquidity is absorbed by overnight reverse repurchases; when the TGA balance increases, the reverse repurchase market provides liquidity [70]. - TGA balance changes usually have a small impact on the reserve scale, and reserves will only decline significantly in a liquidity - depleted situation. The change in the TGA account balance involves issues such as the sustainability of US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt repayment, and bond issuance, which may affect liquidity through indirect channels such as debt risk, sector leverage willingness, and bond - market structure [4][71]. Analysis of TGA Account Fluctuations and Trends Fluctuations and Causes of the Current TGA Balance - Since the beginning of 2025, the TGA account balance has changed significantly, first decreasing and then increasing. As of June 18, 2025, the balance was $3836 billion. The changes are mainly related to the debt ceiling and taxes. At the beginning of 2025, the government debt ceiling expired, and government spending accelerated, causing the TGA account balance to shrink. Then, it was replenished during the tax season and due to increased tariffs, but later entered a phase of accelerated balance depletion [84]. Analysis of TGA Balance Trends - Historically, the debt ceiling is the core factor determining the TGA balance. After hitting the ceiling, the account balance usually decreases first and then increases. Before the X - date, the balance is depleted to meet fiscal expenditures, and after the X - date, it is replenished through bond issuance. - Regarding when the TGA balance will be depleted, it depends on fiscal revenue, expenditure rhythms, and the TGA scale. Revenue - side factors include tax - policy changes and economic trends. Expenditure - side factors involve rigid expenditures such as interest costs and mandatory spending. The TGA balance can be used to estimate the X - date. It is expected that the TGA balance will be depleted by the end of August [85][89]. - Regarding the impact of TGA balance changes on liquidity, before the X - date, the government uses fiscal deposits to pay for government operations and interest, creating market liquidity. After the X - date, the Treasury needs to replenish the TGA account by issuing bonds, which may deplete the ON RRP balance and affect the reserve scale, potentially causing significant pressure on US dollar liquidity [95]. Conclusions and Insights - The TGA account balance is expected to first decrease and then increase. The X - date may occur before August, and at that time, the TGA account balance will be difficult to support subsequent expenditures, increasing the probability of a bipartisan negotiation. - Before the X - date, liquidity will be relatively abundant, and after the X - date, it will tighten rapidly. The impact of TGA balance changes on different markets varies. For the bond market, the impact on yields depends on the Federal Reserve's policy direction. For the stock market, a decrease in the TGA balance benefits growth stocks, but the approaching X - date restricts risk appetite. For commodities, industrial commodities are more affected by fiscal policies, and gold is a good hedging asset [103][104][105].

Trade Trends - U.S. imports showed a low-to-high trend in June, with container arrivals indicating imports below last year's levels, particularly from China, while imports from Vietnam accelerated significantly[2] - Korean exports to the U.S. improved notably in June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in the first 20 days, compared to -2.3% in May, driven mainly by semiconductor exports[4] - China's exports to the U.S. have shown resilience, with container throughput at major ports gradually increasing, surpassing last year's levels[2] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Retail data indicates that inflation pressure from tariffs continues, with prices of imported goods rising approximately 1% and domestic goods by 0.3% since April[5] - U.S. consumer spending on goods and services has continued to slow, with the Redbook weekly retail index showing a downward trend in June[4] Business Confidence and Employment - Business investment expectations have been slow to recover, with a marginal decline in capital expenditure willingness reported in June surveys[5] - The labor market has shown signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising since late May, indicating a slight increase in layoffs[5] Financial Conditions - U.S. financial conditions have continued to ease, as indicated by Bloomberg's financial conditions index and narrowing corporate bond spreads[5] - Market inflation expectations remain stable, with 5-year inflation expectations slightly rising to 2.5% and 10-year expectations stable around 2.3%[5] Risks - Potential risks include the possibility of renewed fluctuations in tariff policies and unexpected price pressures from tariffs exceeding forecasts[6]