Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the commercial aerospace industry, specifically focusing on satellite internet services [6]. Core Insights - The successful commercialization of Starlink is driven by three core factors: supply-side advantages in satellite launch and production capabilities, strong demand across consumer, industry, and government sectors, and comprehensive technological innovations that create a competitive moat [1][2][3]. Supply-Side Summary - Starlink has launched over 9,000 satellites, with more than 7,000 currently in orbit, establishing a global coverage network with a bandwidth capacity of approximately 350 Tbps [2][12]. - The launch capabilities are enhanced by self-developed rockets and reusable technology, allowing for low-cost and rapid network construction [2][18]. - Manufacturing capabilities are globally leading, with plans to produce 5,000 next-generation satellites annually, potentially reaching 10,000 units [28][32]. Demand-Side Summary - Starlink targets remote areas, with a significant user base growth in rural and island regions, and has over 6 million global users [1][3]. - The service is expanding into various sectors, including aviation, maritime, and government applications, with contracts for over 2,000 aircraft and 75,000 ships [3][42]. - The international market share is growing, with 41% of customers located outside North America and Europe, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa [3][58]. Technology Analysis Summary - Starlink's technological edge comes from innovations in satellite manufacturing, communication networks, and terminal integration, achieving low latency of 20-40 ms [4][34]. - The satellite design incorporates high-capacity and lightweight features, while terminal technology has seen significant cost reductions, promoting user adoption [4][30]. Growth Potential Summary - Starlink's business is expected to grow rapidly, with projected revenues reaching $27.5 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 23% [5][58]. - The approval of an additional 22,000 satellites by the FCC and the operational launch of the Starship and Starlink V3.0 are key growth drivers [5][24]. - The competitive landscape is evolving with other low-Earth orbit satellite constellations entering the market, indicating a potential shift in industry dynamics [5][58].

今日早参 2025 年 7 月 14 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：关税再调整：虚虚实实的"对等"关税 随着 7 月 9 日"对等"关税暂缓征收的窗口关闭，特朗普再度掀起关税风 波，继上周（北京时间 7 月 8 日凌晨），特朗普宣布已经向 14 个国家发出 "关税函" ，以及此前，特朗普宣布和越南达成框架性贸易协定后（上调 美国对越关税税率至 20%，对转口贸易征收 40%关税，具体分析参见《关税 再起风波：影响与展望》，2025/7/9）。上周四-六之间（7 月 10-12 日），特朗 普继续加码"对等"关税税率，但同时提出了加征关税的理由及关税下调的 条件：①提出 8 月 1 日对巴西征收 50%关税；②提出将对欧盟、墨西哥和加 拿大的对等/芬太尼关税税率上调至 30%和 35%（不含行业关税）。 这与我 们此前预测"关税函"影响将扩散至更多经济体的预测一致。本文分析新增 关税"威胁"的潜在影响。往前看，我们维持此前判断，即① 对等关税、 芬太尼关税税率仍面临多重不确定性；②7 月 9 日后全球贸 ...

邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 7 月 11 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 今日热点 宏观：7 月上旬全球贸易仍有韧性｜关税影响高频跟踪（7 月 10 日） 概览：贸易量上，7 月上旬美国进口仍有韧性，但持续性存疑；6 月中国出 口仍有韧性；6 月全球制造业继续修复。通胀上，微观零售数据显示 6 月下 半月价格有所回落，但金融市场中长期通胀预期有所升温。企业信心上，关 税不确定性导致 6 月企业资本开支预期继续走弱。向前看，由于 7 月 9 日豁 免结束推迟至 8 月初，不排除 7 月下旬美国再度出现"抢进口"，但考虑到 当前美国企业库存水平不低，贸易量短期弹性或相对有限。 风险提示：特朗普关税政策不确定性，美国抢进口力度超预期。 研报发布日期：2025-07-10 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 策略：关注二季报亮点和反内卷受益 ——中观景气与战术配置 月报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 150.00 and USD 152.90 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience short-term profit pressure due to increased investment in flash sales, although its e-commerce business is projected to perform steadily in 1QFY26 with a year-on-year growth of 11% in CMR [1][2]. - The cloud business is anticipated to continue its accelerated growth, with a projected revenue increase of 22% year-on-year in 1QFY26, supported by strong external demand [1][2]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the flash sales business, which launched on May 2, and the significant investments made to attract both merchants and consumers [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 1QFY26 is expected to increase by 1% year-on-year to CNY 245.7 billion, with adjusted EBITA projected to decline by 16.5% to CNY 37.6 billion due to increased spending on flash sales [2][11]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY26, FY27, and FY28 has been reduced by 20.6%, 22.2%, and 21.3% respectively, reflecting the higher-than-expected investments in flash sales [4][11]. Business Segments and Performance - The report notes that the flash sales business has seen a rapid increase in daily order volume, reaching over 80 million orders per day, with significant user engagement improvements [3][4]. - The company’s various business segments, including the Taobao Group and local life services, are expected to show mixed performance, with some segments continuing to reduce losses while others face challenges [2][11]. Valuation and Estimates - The report adjusts the valuation based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with new target prices reflecting a decrease due to increased competition and investment pressures [4][14]. - The estimated non-GAAP net profit for FY26 is projected at CNY 134 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13.36 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The supply of aircraft is slightly improving, with Boeing and Airbus delivering a total of 320 aircraft in 2Q25, up from 266 in 1Q25. The company delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, an increase from 11 in 1Q25, but sold 14 aircraft, resulting in a decrease in owned aircraft to 441 [1][2][3] - The company expects a core ROE of 10.6% for 2025, roughly in line with 10.5% in 2024, indicating stable performance despite potential challenges in the debt market due to fluctuating U.S. Treasury rates [1][4] Summary by Sections Supply Chain Improvement - The report highlights that the recovery of aircraft manufacturers' capacity is crucial for the company's performance. The increase in aircraft deliveries is expected to positively impact leasing rates and ROE if the trend continues [2] Fleet Management - In 2Q25, the company executed 75 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and the sale of 14 aircraft, leading to a net decrease in owned aircraft. The average age of sold aircraft was 10.4 years, which is higher than the overall fleet average of 5 years. The company maintains a strong order book with 351 aircraft on order [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of USD 702.62 million for 2025, with a slight decrease from 2024. The target price is set at HKD 82, based on a 1.06x 2025E PB ratio [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rapid expansion of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, with a projected market share increase from 28.6% in 2024 to 30% in 2025 [5][6]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is forecasted to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial profit growth, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised upward by 5%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reaching $360.6 million, $690.5 million, and $898.7 million [8]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including cost reductions through scale effects and the ability to integrate logistics across various e-commerce platforms [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $10,259 million in 2024, $12,484 million in 2025, $14,693 million in 2026, and $16,979 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.93%, 21.69%, 17.70%, and 15.56% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from $0.01 in 2024 to $0.10 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 3.61% in 2024 to 20.80% in 2027 [4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest express delivery service provider in Southeast Asia, benefiting from significant market share and cost advantages [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company’s total parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 65.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching 1.69 billion parcels [10]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.80, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.0x for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth prospects [8].

证券研究报告 京东集团-SW (9618 HK/JD US) 2Q25 前瞻：电商主站增长稳健，外卖 投入加码影响短期利润 华泰研究 更新报告 2025 年 7 月 11 日│中国香港/美国 互联网 得益于以旧换新政策对带电品类销售的持续带动，我们预计 2Q25 京东零售 业绩将表现稳健，板块收入及利润均将延续双位数增长，但外卖等新业务的 投入预计将对集团利润释放造成一定压力。我们预计 2Q25 京东外卖投入量 级为百亿元人民币，预计集团 2Q25 调整后净利润 43.6 亿元，同比下滑 70.0%。考虑到外卖新用户与京东主站带电品类消费者的画像或有一定差异 性，因而我们预计外卖业务对京东电商业务的协同与交叉销售潜力或仍需一 定时间逐步释放，建议持续关注用户留存效果及协同进展。维持"买入"。 2Q25 前瞻：预计收入延续双位数稳健增长 我们预计京东集团 2Q25 总收入同增 15.6 %至 3,370 亿元（1Q25：+15.8% yoy），收入增速在以旧换新行动助力下或延续双位数表现。我们预计京东 零售分部收入同比增长 16.5 %至 2,995 亿元，反映出带电品类在以旧换新 政策帮助下的稳健增长与日百品 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a potential narrowing of the decline in PPI in the second half of 2025, with June CPI showing a slight improvement to 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.1% [2] - Global manufacturing PMI has rebounded above the growth line, indicating an overall recovery in manufacturing activity, particularly in developed economies [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of various sectors, particularly those expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies and improving economic conditions [4] Macroeconomic Overview - June CPI in China improved to 0.1% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [2] - Global manufacturing PMI showed a notable increase, with developed markets improving while some emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia showed marginal declines [2] Sector Analysis Fixed Income - The report discusses the impact of "anti-involution" policies on PPI and CPI, suggesting a potential stabilization in prices, with CPI expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% by Q4 2025 [5] - The report notes that the demand side remains critical for price elasticity, with industry self-discipline and private enterprise willingness being key factors [5] Machinery and Equipment - The report indicates a recovery in excavator sales, with June sales reaching 18,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, driven by strong export growth [8] - The growth in second-hand excavator exports is expected to stimulate domestic replacement demand, benefiting leading companies in the sector [8] Agriculture - The report highlights ongoing "anti-involution" efforts in the pig farming industry, which may lead to inventory release and improved profitability for high-quality pig farming companies [9] - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may gradually transition to a phase of high-quality competition, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [9] Renewable Energy and Equipment - The report anticipates strong growth for offshore wind energy, with a significant increase in orders expected to drive performance for leading companies in the sector [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and capacity expansion in the offshore wind sector [19] Electronics and Chemicals - The report forecasts a substantial increase in net profit for Shengquan Group in the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand for electronic materials [20] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's growth trajectory, supported by favorable market conditions [20] Company-Specific Insights - Zhaojin Mining is rated as a "buy" with a target price of 23.44 HKD, driven by expected production growth and favorable gold price trends [15] - Harbin Electric is also rated as a "buy," with anticipated recovery in equipment demand across various energy sectors [15] - MGM China is highlighted for its strong performance in the non-gaming segment, benefiting from increased tourist traffic and successful entertainment events [17]

Group 1: Tariff Changes and Impacts - The U.S. has issued tariff notices to 14 countries, affecting approximately 14.2% of U.S. imports, with tariff rates ranging from 25% to 40%[6] - The weighted average tariff level in the U.S. is expected to rise by 5-6 percentage points to around 15-16%, the highest since 1940[5][21] - The tariffs on 15 countries could further increase the effective tariff level by 2-2.5 percentage points, raising the average to approximately 9-10%[7][8] Group 2: Specific Country Tariffs - Japan and South Korea will face tariffs of 25% and 25% respectively, while Vietnam's tariff has been reduced from 46% to 20%[12] - The countries affected by the tariff notices include major Asian economies and some African and Eastern European nations, collectively accounting for 18.4% of U.S. imports in 2024[15] - The tariffs on specific goods from the 232 investigation, such as copper and semiconductors, are likely to be set at 25% and could be finalized by August 2025[16] Group 3: Future Trade Outlook - Global trade growth may significantly decline after July 9, 2025, due to the impact of these tariffs[11] - The potential for additional countries, particularly in Europe, to receive tariff notices remains high, indicating a broader trade conflict[11] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs on fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs may lead to further adjustments in trade policies[11]

Group 1: Tariff Changes and Impacts - The U.S. has issued tariff notices to 14 countries, raising tariffs to between 25% and 40%, affecting 14.2% of U.S. imports[1] - The weighted average tariff level in the U.S. is expected to rise by 5-6 percentage points to approximately 15-16%, the highest since 1940[2] - The tariffs on Vietnam will be adjusted to 20% for general goods and 40% for transshipment trade, impacting 18-19% of U.S. imports[2] Group 2: Future Projections and Risks - The number of countries receiving tariff notices may increase, particularly among European nations[6] - The effective tariff rates may stabilize between 30-40% for China, with potential structural changes in tariff categories[6] - Risks include a potential slowdown in global trade volume due to the impact of these tariffs, which could lead to a contraction in trade[6] Group 3: Investigations and Legal Considerations - The U.S. Department of Commerce is accelerating Section 232 investigations, which may lead to additional tariffs on key products like copper and semiconductors[3] - Legal uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) may lead to adjustments in tariff strategies[3] - The contribution of tariffs based on Section 232 and 301 investigations is expected to increase, while IEEPA-based tariffs may decrease in significance[3]