今日早参 2025 年 9 月 02 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：人民币加速升值，流动性保持宽松 偏低基数和极端天气扰动退坡下，8 月经济高频指标同比稳健；地产成交边 际企稳，部分可能受北京上海地产政策优化和潜在的财富效应提振；居民暑 期出行景气度较高，但以旧换新补贴对汽车消费的支撑边际退坡；外需方 面，8 月港口高频指标显示出口同比或较 7 月放缓。出行及消费方面，7 月 1 日-8 月 23 日全国铁路累计发送旅客数同比+6.4%，8 月国内/国际航班数同比 走高 0.9%/5.3%；8 月 1-24 日，乘用车日均零售销量同比较 7 月的 7%放缓 至 3%。出口方面，高频指标显示 8 月出口同比增速或较 7 月有所放缓。制 造业开工维持韧性：8 月焦化/高炉开工率高于去年同期 3/4.6 个百分点，水 泥开工率同比回落 7.3 个百分点，建筑钢材成交量亦低于去年同期 10.8%。 地产方面，8 月 1-30 日，44 城新房/22 城二手房成交面积同比增速较 7 月的 -19.8%/-6.1 ...

证券研究报告 商汤-W (20 HK) 港股通 经营质量大幅改善，"1+X"成效显著 公司坚定实施"1+X"战略，成效显著，连续三个半年度实现亏损额同比下 降。25H1 公司销售费用和管理费用同比分别下降 17.3%/18.8%，研发费用 同比增加 12%，主要系模型训练微调所需的算力成本增加所致。经营性现 金流出大幅收窄至 6.40 亿元（24H1 为流出 35.24 亿元），主要得益于应收 账款回收加强及库存管理优化，25H1 公司贸易应收回款 31.59 亿元， yoy+95.5%，销售与交付效率显著提升。截至 25 年 6 月 30 日，公司现金 储备为 131.58 亿元，资金充裕。上半年公司毛利率为 38.5%，yoy- 5.6pct， 主要因客户需求增加导致硬件及 AIDC 相关成本上升。 "差异化算力+融合模型+应用生态"构筑商汤三大竞争优势 1）算力：根据中报，截至 25 年 8 月，公司总算力增长至 25000P，在国产 芯片异构混调上实现约 5000 卡规模月级稳定运行，集群利用率约 80%，异 构训练效率达同构约 95%；2）模型：7 月发布的日日新 6.5 成为国内首个 实现图文交错 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [9][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.41 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million RMB, down 5.4% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to the construction cycle of power grid measurement projects and the performance cycle of energy storage projects. However, with the further promotion of the "Silk Road" system and the growth of testing services for new thermal power installations, revenue and profit are expected to recover in the second half of the year [3][7]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 895 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 75.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 118 million RMB, down 17.5% year-on-year but up 106.6% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the low base in Q1 [4]. - The energy storage segment saw a revenue of 329 million RMB in H1 2025, down 42.88% year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of project performance cycles. In contrast, the testing and inspection revenue grew by 24% year-on-year to 450 million RMB, with a gross margin of 45.72% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s H1 2025 revenue was 1.41 billion RMB, with a net profit of 170 million RMB, reflecting a decline due to project cycles [3]. - Q2 2025 showed a revenue of 895 million RMB, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 75.7% [4]. Business Segments - Energy storage revenue in H1 2025 was 329 million RMB, down 42.88% year-on-year, while testing and inspection revenue reached 450 million RMB, up 24% year-on-year [5]. - The smart monitoring equipment segment saw a revenue increase of 92.18% year-on-year, driven by growth in environmental monitoring and emergency equipment [6]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 516 million, 708 million, and 935 million RMB respectively, with adjustments made to revenue growth assumptions for various segments [7]. - The target price for the company is set at 40.04 RMB, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 44 times for 2025 [9][7].

证券研究报告 铁龙物流 (600125 CH) 业绩超预期，特箱盈利强劲增长 盈利预测与估值 考虑沙鲅线货运量逆势增长，我们上调公司 2025-2027 年归母净利 9.13%/1.65%/5.07%至 5.79/6.89/7.81 亿元（CAGR 为 16.16%）。我们基 于 Wind 一致预期行业加权均值 16.9x 2025 PE（前值 17.3x 2025 PE）， 上调目标价 4.9%至 7.44 元（前值：7.09 元）。 2025 年 9 月 01 日│中国内地 铁路运输 铁龙物流发布半年报，2025 年 H1 实现营收 55.13 亿元（yoy-22.14%）， 归母净利 3.79 亿元（yoy+33.34%）。其中 Q1、Q2 实现归母净利 2.02 亿 元（yoy-7.7%）、1.76 亿元（yoy+172.50%）。公司上半年业绩超我们预 期（3.39 亿元），主因铁路货运盈利好于预期。公司 1H25 净利高增，主因 去年同期计提房产存货计提减值损失 0.87 亿元，基数较低。剔除该事项后， 1H25 公司调整后净利润同比增长约 2.1%。公司首次提出中期分红方案， 拟派发 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.218 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.62%. The gross margin was 25.65%, a decrease of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 339 million RMB, up 20.85% year-on-year, indicating a mild recovery in the semiconductor business overall [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue its revenue and profit growth in the second half of 2025, driven by the ramp-up of its 12-inch production line and accelerated deployment of third-generation semiconductors [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the product and solution business generated revenue of 2.803 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.54%. The discrete devices and IC businesses contributed 2.075 billion RMB and 729 million RMB, respectively, primarily due to stable growth in automotive electronics, photovoltaics, energy storage, and consumer electronics markets [2]. - The manufacturing and service business reported revenue of 2.239 billion RMB, a decline of 2.6%. The wafer manufacturing and testing revenue were 1.470 billion RMB and 703 million RMB, showing growth of 0.56% and 18.48%, respectively [2]. Future Outlook - For the second half of 2025, the company has made significant advancements in the AI server power supply sector, with full product line deployment including SGT, super junction MOS, and SiC/GaN devices. The company has also expanded its GaN product offerings across various sectors beyond communications, including automotive and consumer electronics [3]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with the capacity of its 90nm analog 12-inch process platform in Shenzhen expected to reach 20,000 wafers per month by the end of the year [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts revenues of 11.513 billion RMB, 12.981 billion RMB, and 14.504 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 920 million RMB, 1.135 billion RMB, and 1.546 billion RMB for the same years [4][9]. - The target price is set at 72.90 RMB, based on a 4.2x 2025E PB, reflecting a premium over the average of comparable companies [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Views - The company has shown initial results in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a focus on high-quality development [1]. - The hotel business performance has been flat, but there are signs of marginal improvement in the second quarter [2]. - The overseas operations are showing signs of recovery, although adjustments in management are still needed [3]. - The company is actively expanding its hotel network and enhancing its competitive edge through digital transformation and member system improvements [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.526 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 371 million RMB, down 56.27% [1]. - The second quarter saw revenue of 3.585 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.74% year-on-year, with a net profit of 335 million RMB, down 49.12% [1]. Hotel Business Operations - The hotel business revenue for H1 2025 was 6.422 billion RMB, down 5.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 240 million RMB, down 66.16% [2]. - The domestic hotel business revenue was 4.575 billion RMB, down 4.25% year-on-year, primarily due to a subdued business travel environment [2]. Overseas Operations - In H1 2025, overseas limited-service hotel revenue was 2.37 billion EUR, down 9.02%, with a net loss of 45.15 million EUR [3]. - The company is focusing on debt restructuring and improving profitability through various financial strategies [3]. Expansion and Strategy - As of H1 2025, the company operated 13,796 hotels, with 673 new openings and 293 closures, resulting in a net increase of 380 hotels [4]. - The company has signed contracts for 17,771 hotels, with a reserve of 3,975 hotels, indicating strong market share growth [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts with expected EPS of 0.95, 1.17, and 1.33 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The target price is set at 27.55 RMB, based on a 29x PE for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 40.25 [5][7]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the charging pile operation sector and the power equipment segment, expected to benefit from increased charging service fees and expansion into overseas markets [1][3]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 4.153 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 97.6%, with a net profit of RMB 262 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 99.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 304.8% [1][2]. - The charging business is expected to see improved profitability, while the power equipment segment is strengthening its overseas presence [1][4]. Summary by Sections Charging Pile Business - In H1 2025, the charging business generated RMB 1.84 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with a gross margin of 30.3% [3]. - The company operates 792,000 public charging terminals, holding a market share of approximately 24%, ranking first in the country [3]. - The demand for charging services is anticipated to shift from commercial vehicles to private cars, leading to an increase in service fees [3]. Power Equipment Business - In H1 2025, the power equipment segment reported revenues of RMB 4.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, with a gross margin of 23.7% [4]. - The company secured the highest bid volumes for its products in major projects, indicating a strong competitive position [4]. - The overseas contract value reached approximately RMB 1 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84% [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 1.211 billion, RMB 1.594 billion, and RMB 2.286 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][11]. - The report anticipates a consistent growth trajectory in revenue and profitability, with a projected revenue increase of 31.51% in 2025 [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's revenue for 1H25 was 11.64 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.87 billion RMB, down 29.2% year-on-year. The decline in performance is primarily due to pressure on international oil transportation demand and a decrease in freight rates. However, there is an expectation for a seasonal demand boost in the second half of the year, which may lead to a recovery in freight rates [1][2] - The report suggests closely monitoring the US interest rate cut cycle and the recovery of domestic demand in China, which could benefit global oil transportation demand and support market freight rates [1] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Business - The foreign trade oil transportation business generated revenue of 7.31 billion RMB in 1H25, down 5.7% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.29 billion RMB, a significant decline of 49.1%. The gross margin was 17.6%, down 15.1 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in freight rates was attributed to increased geopolitical uncertainties affecting production consumption and crude oil replenishment demand. The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) averaged a year-on-year decrease of 21.4% [2] - The domestic oil transportation segment reported revenue of 2.76 billion RMB, down 5.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 660 million RMB, down 6.8%. The gross margin was 24.0%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points. The LNG transportation business contributed a net profit of 420 million RMB, up 5.7% year-on-year, supported by the expansion of the LNG fleet and long-term contracts [3] Business Structure - The company has established a diversified business structure, operating in oil transportation, LNG, LPG, and chemical logistics. This diversification allows for resource sharing and strategic synergy among different business segments. As of June, the company ranked first globally in oil tanker fleet size and fourth in LNG fleet size [4] Profit Forecast and Target Price - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised downwards by 18%, 9%, and 9% to 4.43 billion RMB, 5.54 billion RMB, and 5.89 billion RMB, respectively. The target prices for A and H shares have been adjusted downwards by 18% and 3% to 13.20 RMB and 8.90 HKD, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5]

证券研究报告 昊华科技 (600378 CH) 25H1 稳健增长，蓝天贡献逐步显现 2025 年 9 月 01 日│中国内地 化学制品 25H1 公司氟化工板块受氟碳化学品行情带动，整体表现较好，销售收入同 比增长 25%至 46.5 亿元，毛利率同比+2pct；电子化学品板块市场竞争较 为激烈，公司以量补价，收入同比增长 17%至 5.8 亿元，毛利率维持稳定。 高端制造化工材料板块受需求周期和政策性因素影响，部分产品价格出现下 滑，公司以量补价，收入同比增长 7%至 15.1 亿元。碳减排暨工程技术服务 板块保持稳定增长，整体板块收入同比增长 30%至 9 亿元，毛利同比增长 11.6pct。公司综合毛利率同比下降 4pct 至 23.5%；受管理与研发费用下降 影响，综合费用率同比-3%至 13.3%。 氟化工主要产品景气延续改善，特气与化工材料产销有望持续释放 25Q2 公司多数产品出货实现较大增长，其中氟碳化学品/含氟锂电材料/橡 胶密封制品 / 特 种 轮 胎 / 特 种 涂 料 销 量 环 比 增 长 分 别 为 53%/108%/105%/106%/32%。受氟碳化学品、特种涂料、聚氨酯新材 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1][14]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in profitability in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 0.72% to RMB 21.01 billion and a net profit decrease of 0.64% to RMB 6.32 billion [1]. - The demand for business travel remains weak, impacting the company's performance [1]. - The company has proposed a mid-term dividend plan, distributing RMB 0.0385 per share, which accounts for approximately 29.8% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The company has also initiated a stock buyback program, with the total amount for buybacks and dividends representing about 45% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [1]. Industry Overview - The railway travel radius continues to shorten, influenced by promotional activities in the aviation sector, leading to a decrease in long-distance railway passenger numbers [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the growth rate of railway passenger turnover was 2.8%, which is lower than the 4.3% growth rate for domestic airline passenger turnover [2]. Company Performance - For the first half of 2025, the Beijing-Shanghai line generated revenue of RMB 18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, while net profit decreased by 2.2% to RMB 6.31 billion [3]. - The company experienced a 1.2% increase in passenger volume on the Beijing-Shanghai line, but the overall performance was subdued due to weak business travel demand and rising management fees [3]. - The company reported a turnaround for the Beijing-Fujian-Anhui line, achieving a net profit of RMB 8.08 million in the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of RMB 148 million in the same period of 2024 [3]. Outlook for Second Half of 2025 - The railway summer transportation flow is expected to grow steadily, with a projected 5.8% year-on-year increase in passenger numbers during July and August [4]. - However, the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain, particularly with the upcoming combined holiday period in October, which may lead to a marginal decline in railway passenger demand in September [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards by 0.3%, 1.6%, and 2.2% to RMB 13.09 billion, RMB 13.70 billion, and RMB 14.67 billion respectively, due to weak passenger demand and the impact of airline promotions [5]. - The target price has been revised down to RMB 6.32 from RMB 6.45, based on a WACC of 7.66% and a growth rate of 2.5% [5][14].