证券研究报告 基础材料 锂：近端强现实，远期依旧看好上涨 锂行业：近端强现实，远期需求分歧依旧较大 今年 9 月以来，碳酸锂价格持续走强，期货主力合约价格一度突破 10 万元 /吨，价格上涨主要可归因为供给端江西枧下窝矿山在 8 月停产以及需求端 下游电池需求呈现明显淡季不淡，供给扰动与需求高增速共振下，国内库存 持续去化。与此同时，国内储能招标维持高增速，导致市场对于 26 年全球 储能出货预期大幅抬升。强现实+强需求预期推升碳酸锂价格在三季度以来 持续上涨。站在当前节点展望后市，市场对具体 26/27 年需求增速预期尤其 储能的增速上呈明显分歧，该分歧直接导致市场对于碳酸锂未来的长期供需 测算结果方差较大。本文将对不同终端增速预期下的碳酸锂需求以及不同价 格下的供给进行测算，以分析未来锂价的合理中枢。 供给：预计锂资源 26 年/27 年产量增速为 32.3%/17.1% 根据我们测算，2026 年全球锂资源供应增量将主要来自国内盐湖新项目投 产、非洲矿与澳矿的放量，以及南美盐湖产能的爬产。中性预期下，我们预 测 2025 年至 2027 年全球锂资源供给量预计分别为 163.4 万吨、216.2 万 吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the construction and building materials sectors [10]. Core Viewpoints - The construction and building materials sector is expected to experience a spring rally in 2026, driven by improvements in construction PMI, order volume, and favorable market conditions such as a later Spring Festival and strong domestic excavator sales [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend and price-increasing stocks, recommending companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as traditional building materials with price increase potential [13][19]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: sustainable growth in renovation, thorough industry clearing in construction materials, and opportunities in high-quality leading companies in various segments [14][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a potential spring rally for the building materials sector, supported by fiscal improvements and strong domestic machinery sales [19]. - Historical data shows that the building materials index has a high probability of outperforming the market in Q1, with a 57% chance of rising based on past performance [15]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China Chemical, China National Materials, and Xinyi Glass, with target prices and buy ratings [10][38]. - Specific recommendations include: - China Chemical (601117 CH) - Target Price: 12.05 - China National Materials (600970 CH) - Target Price: 14.23 - Xinyi Glass (868 HK) - Target Price: 9.54 - Others include China United Plastic, Jinggong Steel Structure, and Dongfang Yuhong [10][38]. Market Dynamics - Recent data indicates a 1.2% week-on-week increase in national cement prices, while the average price of float glass has risen by 2.3% [2][28]. - The report notes that the domestic float glass market is stabilizing, with some regions experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [28][30]. - The electronic fabric market is also showing signs of price increases, driven by demand from PCB clients [25][33]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand in the cleanroom engineering and special electronic fabric sectors, with a focus on companies that can adapt to new production capabilities and traditional industry upgrades [14][19]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and the ongoing recovery of the real estate market, with a focus on renovation and construction materials [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the telecommunications sector and its sub-sectors, including telecommunications equipment manufacturing [9]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by key events such as the successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket and the upcoming launch of the Long March 12 rocket, which aims to achieve reusability [2][3]. - The Shanghai Songjiang Satellite Internet Industry Conference highlighted the development opportunities in satellite internet, with partnerships being formed to enhance aviation satellite internet applications [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ground terminals and applications as critical components of the commercial aerospace industry's business ecosystem, suggesting a focus on undervalued segments with broad potential [18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The telecommunications index rose by 3.69% last week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.37%, and the Shenzhen Component Index, which rose by 1.26% [2][12]. Key Events - Significant events in the commercial aerospace sector include: 1. The successful first flight of the Zhuque-3 rocket, achieving orbit but failing to recover the first stage [3][13]. 2. The upcoming first flight of the Long March 12 rocket, which will attempt reusability [3][13]. 3. The Shanghai Songjiang Satellite Internet Industry Conference, where major players discussed advancements in satellite technology [16]. 4. The initiation of a tender for phased array terminals by China StarNet, indicating a focus on ground terminal development [18]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies within the telecommunications sector, including: - ZTE Corporation (Buy, target price: 64.34 CNY) [38]. - Ruijie Networks (Buy, target price: 102.51 CNY) [38]. - China Telecom (Buy, target price: 9.11 CNY) [38]. - NewEase (Buy, target price: 476.71 CNY) [38]. - China Mobile (Buy, target price: 126.20 CNY) [38]. - Zhongji Xuchuang (Buy, target price: 626.68 CNY) [38]. - Haige Communications (Buy, target price: 13.70 CNY) [38]. - Shanghai Hanyun (Buy, target price: 28.28 CNY) [38]. - China Unicom (Hold, target price: 7.56 CNY) [38]. Performance Highlights - The report notes that the top-performing stocks in the past week included: - Aerospace Development (up 52.26%) - Tianfu Communication (up 25.79%) - Shanghai Hanyun (up 24.98%) [10]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the commercial aerospace sector is poised for further growth, particularly in ground terminal applications and satellite manufacturing, as the industry approaches critical technological milestones [2][3][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Hold" with a target price of RMB 28.30 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company, Diya Co., is a leading brand in China's diamond ring industry, actively expanding its gold product line and optimizing its channel layout, showing gradual improvement in performance [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.156 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 103 million, a significant increase of 408.0% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company continues to optimize inefficient stores and has introduced new products, which have driven a rapid increase in same-store sales [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Online self-operated revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached RMB 230 million, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, while offline direct sales revenue was RMB 820 million, a decrease of 5.0% due to net store closures [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company in the first three quarters was 66.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, with core business gross margin at 68.0%, up 2.3 percentage points [2]. Store Optimization and Efficiency - The company closed 32 stores during the first three quarters of 2025, with a net store closure rate slowing down compared to the previous year [3]. - The average revenue per store increased to RMB 2.65 million, a year-on-year growth of 31%, while sales and management expense ratios improved significantly [3]. Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company focuses on two emotional expression scenarios: "Proposal" and "Wedding," with new product launches in the gold jewelry category [4]. - Diya Co. is actively expanding into overseas markets, achieving significant exposure on platforms like TikTok, with a total exposure of 689 million times by the first half of 2025 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 52% and 44% to RMB 136 million and RMB 203 million, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 251 million [5][12]. - The company is currently in a brand transformation phase, leading to significant earnings volatility, and a price-to-book (PB) valuation method is now applied, with a target price set at RMB 28.30 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 85.20 [1][4][5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience amid fluctuations in the overseas MDI market, attributed to high energy costs and aging facilities affecting European competitors. The company maintains stable operations and good profitability due to its cost and scale advantages [1][2] - Recent price increases in MDI products globally, driven by supply disruptions and maintenance in major overseas plants, have led to an upward revision of the company's profit expectations for 2025. The recovery of MDI market conditions is anticipated alongside China's economic recovery and sustained overseas demand [1][2][4] - The report highlights that while the domestic MDI supply is expected to remain ample due to new capacity additions, short-term demand may stabilize due to weak real estate performance and reduced appliance demand. The sustainability of high MDI prices may be limited, but the company is well-positioned to benefit from any market recovery [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global MDI market is experiencing price increases, with major companies like Hunstman and BASF raising prices by USD 200 to EUR 350. As of December 5, 2025, the domestic pure MDI price in China reached RMB 19,500 per ton, an 11% increase since the end of September [2] - China's MDI production capacity is projected to grow by 27% to 5.55 million tons in 2025, with the company expected to add 700,000 tons of new capacity in 2026. However, the domestic MDI market faces challenges from increased supply and weak demand in the short term [3][4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 12.57 billion, a 2% increase from previous estimates. For 2026 and 2027, net profits are projected to be RMB 17.79 billion and RMB 20.82 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 42% and 17% [4][9] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x for 2026, leading to a target price of RMB 85.20, which corresponds to a 14x P/E for 2026 [4][9]

证券研究报告 多元金融 公募考核改革引导归本溯源 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 07 日│中国内地 动态点评 多元金融 增持 (维持) | 沈娟 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570514040002 | shenjuan@htsc.com | | SFC No. BPN843 | +(86) 755 2395 2763 | | 汪煜 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570523010003 | wangyu017005@htsc.com | | SFC No. BRZ146 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 孙亦欣* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070004 sunyixin@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 行业走势图 (19) (9) 1 10 20 Dec-24 Apr-25 Aug-25 Dec-25 (%) 多元金融 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 公募考核改革引导归本溯源 据财联社，近日《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引（征求意见稿）》已下发， 是近年来公募基金系列改革的又一重要里程碑。相较于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors, while also recommending a focus on quality insurance companies [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the order of securities > banking > insurance, emphasizing the optimization of performance evaluation rules for fund companies, which is expected to enhance long-term incentive mechanisms and promote sustainable development in the fund industry [12][31]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced new regulations to strengthen governance and oversight across the entire lifecycle of listed companies, which is anticipated to improve market stability and investor confidence [15][16]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to support liquidity, particularly during the year-end and Spring Festival periods, with major banks expected to begin distributing mid-term dividends [31][33]. Summary by Sections Securities - The CSRC has proposed to relax capital and leverage restrictions for high-quality securities firms, which is expected to enhance their operational efficiency [14]. - In November, the number of new A-share accounts increased by 3% month-on-month, with a year-to-date growth of 8%, indicating sustained market interest [18]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality brokers with low price-to-book (PB) ratios, including CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities [12][13]. Banking - The PBOC's recent reverse repurchase operations are aimed at ensuring ample liquidity in the market, especially during high-demand periods [31][32]. - The report notes that the banking sector's PB ratio is currently at 0.71, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels, suggesting potential for recovery [31]. - Recommended banking stocks include Nanjing Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Shanghai Bank, which are considered high-quality picks [31][33]. Insurance - The insurance sector has shown resilience, with regulatory adjustments to risk factors for equity investments leading to a significant increase in stock prices [46]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on leading insurance companies, such as China Life and Ping An, which are expected to benefit from improved liquidity conditions [46][47]. - Regulatory changes are aimed at encouraging long-term investments by insurance companies, which could enhance their stability and support economic growth [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Amazon with a target price of $351.87 [7][5]. Core Insights - Amazon's recent re:Invent conference showcased significant updates, including the launch of the Trainium3 chip and enhancements to its Agent development ecosystem, which are expected to accelerate demand for AI agents by 2026 [1][2]. - The performance of the Trainium3 chip has improved significantly, with a 4.4x increase in computing power and a 4x increase in efficiency compared to its predecessor [2]. - The introduction of the Nova2 series models emphasizes high cost-effectiveness, catering to various applications including multimodal inference and image generation [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections for Amazon from 2025 to 2027 indicate adjusted net profits of $75.4 billion, $87 billion, and $110.5 billion respectively [5][13]. - The report utilizes a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, maintaining a target price of $351.87, which corresponds to a 42.9x PE ratio for 2026 [5][15]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $718 billion and $806 billion respectively, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 12.5% [11][23]. Product and Service Developments - The Agent development ecosystem has seen over 2 million downloads of the AgentCore platform within five months, with new features enhancing its capabilities [3]. - The Strands Agents SDK has been updated to support TypeScript and edge devices, broadening the scope for developers [3]. - The Nova2 series models include various products tailored for specific tasks, reinforcing Amazon's commitment to high-performance AI solutions [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Amazon has deployed over 1 million Trainium chips, with a significant portion of inference tasks on Bedrock being handled by these chips, indicating a strong integration of self-developed hardware within its cloud services [2]. - The report highlights Amazon's strategy to align its chip architecture with NVIDIA's ecosystem, which is expected to enhance performance and reduce costs [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the insurance sector, encouraging long-term investments in large-cap stocks, dividend stocks, and stocks listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][4]. Core Insights - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has adjusted the risk factors for insurance companies, reducing the risk factor for long-term holdings of stocks in the CSI 300 Index and the CSCI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index by 10% [1][2]. - The adjustment reflects a regulatory push to encourage insurance capital to enter the market and emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies [1][3]. - The report estimates that the equity risk portion accounts for 18% to 46% of total capital consumption for major life insurance companies, with the adjusted risk factors providing a slight improvement in solvency [2][12]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The risk factors for stocks with an average holding period of over three years in the CSI 300 Index and the CSCI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index have been reduced from 0.3 to 0.27, while those for stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with an average holding period of over two years have been reduced from 0.4 to 0.36 [2][22]. - This adjustment is part of a broader trend since the implementation of the risk-oriented solvency system in 2016, which has seen periodic adjustments to equity investment capital consumption [4][21]. Long-term Investment Focus - The report highlights that the current regulatory changes are aimed at promoting long-term investments, particularly in large-cap dividend stocks, which are expected to be included in the FVOCI accounting category [3][18]. - Major insurance companies have significantly increased their holdings in dividend stocks, with an estimated allocation of over 920 billion RMB in FVOCI stocks as of the first half of 2025 [3][14]. Market Trends - The emphasis on dividend stocks aligns with the trend of insurance companies relying on dividend income to compensate for declining cash yields [5][14]. - The report suggests that the insurance sector is transitioning from a phase of aggressive buying to a more selective investment strategy, focusing on balancing and optimizing their dividend stock portfolios [5][14].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-end and export opportunities in the automotive sector, particularly for domestic brands like BYD, Geely, Great Wall, and Leap Motor [1][2] - The automotive industry is expected to see a stable growth in 2026, with wholesale and retail sales projected to increase by 3% and decrease by 1% respectively, indicating a flat overall market [2][18] - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the European electric vehicle market, forecasting a 35% year-on-year increase in sales to reach 3.65 million units in 2026, driven by carbon emission regulations and high-quality new vehicle supply [2][18] Group 2: Passenger Vehicles - Domestic brands have increased their market share from 60% to 66% in the first ten months of 2025, with mid-to-low-end segments experiencing the fastest growth [26][28] - The report identifies key models in the five/six-seat SUV market, including Xiaomi's YU9, NIO's ES7, and others, as significant contributors to the high-end market push [2][18] - The report anticipates intensified competition among domestic car manufacturers, particularly in the high-end segment, as they aim to capture a larger share of the market [2][18] Group 3: Auto Parts - The auto parts sector is focusing on globalization and new technological avenues, with an emphasis on opportunities in Europe and advancements in AI and robotics [3][4] - The report suggests that the auto parts industry will benefit from structural opportunities as traditional international giants undergo transformation [3][4] - Key companies recommended for investment in the auto parts sector include Minth Group, Xingyu, and others, which are expected to leverage their technological advantages for growth [3][4] Group 4: Intelligent Driving - The report predicts that by 2026, high-speed NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) will become a standard feature priced between 100,000 to 150,000 yuan, with penetration rates expected to reach 43% for high-speed NOA and 24% for urban NOA [4][5] - The acceleration of L4 commercial deployment is anticipated, with many scenarios expected to complete technical validation by 2025, leading to a rapid commercialization phase in 2026 [4][5] - Recommended companies in the intelligent driving space include Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI applications in vehicles [4][5] Group 5: Robotics - The robotics sector is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, driven by advancements in technology and production capabilities, particularly with Tesla's V3 technology [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of domestic companies in the robotics field, which are likely to see valuation increases as they innovate and expand their production capabilities [5][6] - Key players in the robotics sector recommended for investment include Xpeng and others, which are expected to benefit from the evolving landscape of robotics technology [5][6]