证券研究报告 华联控股 (000036 CH) 拟收购南美"锂三角"最大未开发盐 湖，第二曲线继续迈进 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 12 月 | 23 日│中国内地 | 房地产开发 | 目标价(人民币): | 5.15 | 12 月 22 日，公司发布公告，拟以 1.75 亿美元受让境外公司智利锂业及其 CEO 所持有的 Argentum 公司的 100%股份，从而获得阿里扎罗锂矿项目 80%的权益。同日，公司与交易对方已签署《股份购买协议》。本次收购为 公司首次获取大型海外盐湖资源，标志其新能源业务转型由前期布局阶段迈 入实质推进阶段，公司第二增长曲线的确定性显著提升。维持"增持"评级。 拟收购阿根廷锂盐湖矿，公司切入产业上游核心资源端 阿里扎罗项目位于阿根廷萨尔塔省 Arizaro 盐湖区，后者为南美洲"锂三角" 最大的未开发盐湖。阿里扎罗项目包含 Arizaro 锂盐湖 6 个采矿权，总面积 约 205 平方公里。根据第三方专业机构出具的预可行性研究报告，阿里扎 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Giant Network, Xindong Company, and Kyeing Network, among others [10]. Core Insights - The Chinese gaming industry is experiencing robust growth in overseas markets, with self-developed game revenues increasing by 5.6% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, projected to rise from $11.6 billion in 2019 to $18.56 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 9.1% [1][20]. - The global gaming market is shifting from a traffic-driven model to one focused on structural innovation, marking the entry of Chinese gaming companies into a "high-quality growth era" [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and technological empowerment in driving overseas growth, with the gaming sector becoming a core vehicle for cultural export [2][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Growth Dynamics - The overseas revenue of self-developed games from China is expected to grow significantly, with mobile games maintaining a dominant share of around 90% since 2021 [20][25]. - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia and the Middle East show strong user engagement and growth potential, while mature markets like Europe and North America are focusing on premium content and localized operations [1][29]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by large companies like Tencent and NetEase leveraging global strategies and stable revenue from evergreen products, while mid-sized firms like Didi Interactive and Lemon Microfun are successfully carving out niches through focused strategies [4][18]. - The report highlights the success of SLG (Simulation and Strategy Games) genres, which accounted for 43.3% of overseas revenue in the first half of 2025, alongside the emergence of innovative gameplay that combines different genres [3][17]. Investment Opportunities - Future opportunities in the overseas market are identified in regional expansion and the evolution of gameplay and genres, with a recommendation for companies like Giant Network and Xindong Company [6][10]. - The report suggests that the market is not saturated, as there remains potential for growth in both mature and emerging markets through premium content and localized strategies [5][19].

证券研究报告 先声药业 (2096 HK) SIM0613 出海；创新平台全球潜力兑 现启动 | 华泰研究 | | | 事件点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 12 月 | 23 日│中国香港 | 生物医药 | 目标价(港币): | 19.82 | 12 月 22 日，公司公告其 SIM0613（LRRC15 ADC）的海外权益以 4,500 万美元首付款、10.6 亿美元总金额及分级特许权使用费授权予法国益普生。 本交易是公司 2025 年第 3 个对外授权项目，验证公司创新药管线步入兑现 阶段，后续随着新管线的陆续临床/临床前验证，我们认为公司产品对外授 权有望形成趋势。维持"买入"评级。 SIM0613 全球进度靠前，公司 ADC 平台技术验证 LRRC15 在多种实体瘤和肿瘤相关成纤维细胞（CAF）表面高表达，LRRC15 ADC 能够直接杀伤靶点高表达肿瘤细胞，还有机会通过 CAF 将 ADC 分子 带入异质性的肿瘤组织内部，改善肿瘤微环境。SIM0613 的优势在于：1） 已在骨肉瘤和 TNB ...

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 23 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程首席研究 员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 金工：2025 年外资买入哪些中国资产 ETF 截至 2025 年 12 月 20 日，2025 年以来全球投资于中国资产的 ETF 累计获 得 831 亿美元的资金净流入。其中，境内 ETF 累计获资金流入 786 亿美 元，境外 ETF 则累计净流入约 45 亿美元。从总体数值来看，外资买入中国 资产占比较小；然而，就内部分化情况来看，2025 年以来外资对境内资产 的配置存在显著倾向性：就行业分布来看，科技板块获外资流入最多，达 95 亿美元，主要来自美国和欧洲地区；就具体产品而言，外资流入排名前 10 的 ETF 中有六只为科技 ETF，排名前 3 的 iShares 中国科技 UCITS ETF、 Invesco 中国科技 ETF 和 KraneShares CSI 中国互联网 ETF 获资金净流入 均超过 20 亿美元。 风险提示：本报告不涉及证券投资基金评价，不涉及对具体基金产品的投资 建议，亦不涉及对具体个股的投资建议；投资者需 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xindong Company, Shenzhou Taiyue, Kaiying Network, and Jibite, while Perfect World is rated as "Hold" [8][9]. Core Insights - The gaming industry in China is expected to achieve a sales revenue of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68%, driven by an increase in user ARPU [1]. - Mobile games are projected to generate 257.08 billion yuan in revenue, up 7.92% year-on-year, while client games are expected to see a significant recovery with a revenue of 78.16 billion yuan, marking a 14.97% increase [1]. - Mini-games and console games are highlighted as the biggest growth areas, with mini-games expected to reach 53.54 billion yuan, a 34.39% increase, and console games projected at 8.36 billion yuan, an 86.33% increase [2]. - The overseas market for self-developed games is anticipated to reach 20.46 billion USD, growing by 10.23%, with strategy games dominating the revenue share [3]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - The gaming market is experiencing steady growth, supported by long-term operations and innovative new products [1]. - The user base is expected to exceed 683 million, with a growth of 1.35% year-on-year [1]. Mini-games and Console Games - Mini-games are benefiting from lightweight features and social media platforms, significantly lowering customer acquisition costs [2]. - Console games are seeing a surge due to hardware upgrades and popular titles driving sales [2]. Overseas Market - The overseas revenue for self-developed mobile games is projected to be 18.48 billion USD, with a growth rate of 13.16% [3]. - The North American, Japanese, and Korean markets contribute 57.81% of the overseas revenue, indicating a high market concentration [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with long-term operations and strong overseas strategy game capabilities, such as Giant Network [4]. - New product cycles and companies transitioning to platform-based business models are also recommended for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $388.35 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q4 FY25, achieving $18.015 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 FY25 was $8.518 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 97% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 106% [1]. - The semiconductor solutions business saw revenue of $11.072 billion in Q4 FY25, with AI-related revenue reaching $6.438 billion, a year-over-year increase of 74% [2]. - The infrastructure software business generated $6.943 billion in revenue for Q4 FY25, with strong demand for new orders, totaling over $10.4 billion [3]. - The company expects Q1 FY26 revenue to be $19.1 billion, driven by rapid shipments of ASIC and AI Ethernet switch products, with AI-related revenue projected to double year-over-year [4]. - The company has a strong order backlog of $73 billion in AI-related business, enhancing revenue visibility for the next 18 months [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 FY25, the company achieved a GAAP EPS of $1.74, a 93% increase year-over-year, and a Non-GAAP EPS of $1.95 [1]. - The company expects Non-GAAP net profits for FY26 to be $46.5 billion, with significant upward revisions for FY26 and FY27 [5]. Semiconductor Solutions - The semiconductor solutions segment reported a revenue increase of 21% year-over-year, with a notable 35% quarter-over-quarter growth [2]. - The company received a $10 billion order for ASIC-related business and a $11 billion order from a single customer, with plans for delivery by the end of 2026 [2]. Infrastructure Software - The infrastructure software segment's revenue grew by 2% year-over-year, with a total of $69.43 billion in revenue for Q4 FY25 [3]. - The total value of new contracts signed in Q4 FY25 exceeded $10.4 billion, indicating strong demand [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue of $19.1 billion for Q1 FY26, with AI-related revenue expected to reach $8.2 billion, doubling year-over-year [4]. - The total backlog of orders for the company is $162 billion, reflecting a $52 billion increase from the previous quarter [4].

固收 证券研究报告 流动性跟踪周报（2025.12.15-12.19） SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 2025 年 12 月 22 日│中国内地 流动性周报 12 月 19 日 6M 国股票据转贴报价 0.89%，较前一周最后一个交易日下行。 票据利率下行，显示信贷需求减少，票据冲量需求增加。上周五美元兑人 民币汇率报 7.04，较前一周下行，中美利差走阔。上周公布的美国 11 月 非农就业数据好坏参半，经济隐忧犹存；同时 CPI 数据温和，缓解通胀担 忧，共同推动美债收益率下行。但市场对美国长期财政赤字和债务可持续 性的担忧，为长端收益率带来上行压力。未来美债收益率曲线可能趋于陡 峭化。复杂局面共同强化市场对美联储放缓降 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aimed to maintain a stable proportion of manufacturing, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" shifts to maintaining a "reasonable proportion," indicating a potential decline from the current level, which is double the OECD average[2][10]. - In 2024, China's nominal manufacturing value added is projected to account for 24.9% of GDP, significantly higher than the OECD average of 12.4%[2][10]. - From 2011 to 2020, China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP decreased from 31.6% to 25.7%, but the decline has slowed since 2020 due to real estate cycle adjustments[2][11]. Group 2: Investment and Growth Rates - The annualized growth rate of China's real manufacturing value added (PPP) from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be 4.6%, surpassing the global average of 1.7% during the same period[2][20]. - High-end manufacturing investment is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 12.2% from 2021 to 2024, outpacing the overall manufacturing investment growth rate of 9.5%[3][26]. - Traditional manufacturing sectors are expected to see an investment growth rate increase from 2.9% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to an average of 8.9% from 2021 to 2024[3][27]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Prospects - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breakthroughs in high-tech industries and aims to enhance competitiveness in sectors like AI, hydrogen energy, and quantum information[3][29]. - The production of new energy vehicles is projected to rise from 340,000 units in 2015 to 13.168 million units in 2024, reflecting significant growth in the sector[3][46]. - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to grow from 2.33 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 17.2%[3][48].

证券研究报告 固收视角 生产端有所收敛 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 22 日│中国内地 | 张继强 | | --- | 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 12 月第三周，地产方面，地产成交热度小幅修复，但新房与二手房整体偏弱，叠加高基数影响，同比读数弱于前期， 房价有待改善，土地成交指标低位运行。生产端来看，工业方面，货运量韧性回落，生产开工率多数偏弱，地炼开工 率修复，焦化、高炉、汽车边际偏弱，基数对读数有扰动。建筑业方面，水泥与黑色供需偏弱运行，库存小幅去化， 沥青开工率 ...

固收 商业不动产 REITs 新规与展望 2025 年 12 月 22 日│中国内地 信用周报 信用热点：商业不动产 REITs 新规与展望 证券研究报告 市场回顾：信用债收益率多数下行，信用利差被动上行 上周信用债收益率多数小幅下行，但下行幅度不及国开债，利差多数被动上 行。2025 年 12 月 12 日至 12 月 19 日，税期资金面平稳，债基赎回短暂扰 动市场，LPR 降息预期再起，利率债先上后下，普信债收益率多数小幅下 行 2BP 左右，二永债除 1Y 外多数亦小幅下行 2BP 左右，但下行幅度不及 国开债，利差被动上行，1-5Y 品种多数利差上行 2-3BP。上周理财净买入 376 亿元，基金净买入 82 亿元，基金买入力度环比前一周有所下滑。信用 债 ETF 规模 5282 亿元，环比前一周上升 3.73%。行业利差方面，上周各 行业 AAA 主体评级公募债利差中位数多数上行 3BP 左右，各省公募城投债 利差中位数普遍上升 2-4BP，云南、贵州上行超 6BP。 一级发行：信用债净融资小幅下滑，发行利率涨跌互现 2025 年 12 月 15 日至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，公司类信用 ...