Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The global computing power construction is entering a new acceleration phase driven by expanding inference demand, innovative financing models, and increased capital expenditure from cloud service providers [1][4][21] - In the AI era, inference demand is driven by three variables: user count, usage duration, and usage depth, which are all expanding simultaneously [2][8][13] - Supply-side cooperation is deepening, with major cloud providers increasing their capital expenditures significantly, indicating a robust growth outlook for computing power infrastructure [3][20] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Inference demand is expanding due to increased user count, with OpenAI's monthly active users surpassing 800 million, indicating rapid penetration of AI applications [2][8] - The depth of usage is evolving as AI products transition from general Q&A tools to complex reasoning models, significantly increasing the frequency of inference calls [9][13] - Usage duration is extending as AI moves from passive response to proactive operation, with products like OpenAI Pulse enabling continuous reasoning, thus enhancing computing power utilization [13][15] Supply Side - Major collaborations are accelerating the pace of data center construction, with OpenAI partnering with leading computing power manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD for large-scale projects [3][17] - Capital expenditure from North American cloud providers reached $113.4 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 78.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.31% [20][23] - New financing models such as "computing power leasing" and "computing power debt financing" are emerging, alleviating the mismatch between large upfront investments and long-term returns, thus accelerating computing power cluster construction [4][19] Overall Outlook - The combination of sustained growth in inference demand and accelerated construction of computing power clusters is expected to lead the global computing power industry into a new expansion cycle, with a positive outlook for industry prosperity [21]

证券研究报告 科技 2026 年投资峰会速递—— AI 产业新范式 华泰研究 2025 年 11 月 10 日│中国内地 动态点评 11 月 5-6 日，我们组织了 2026 年度投资峰会，我们看到：1）Scaling Law 2.0 时代下，合成数据打开训练数据天花板，Mid Training 范式重塑模型演 进路径；2）AI 应用层面商业化步入规模化阶段，Agent 能力与交易闭环融 合带动产业落地加速。 核心亮点 1、模型：算力扩张仍是核心增长引擎。我们观察到，在 Scaling Law 持续 演进的背景下，模型能力的提升正从"数据—算力—算法"三要素的线性关 系，转向以"数据生成与利用效率"为核心的非线性增长阶段。合成数据持 续扩大训练资源池，推动训练 tokens 规模显著上行；与此同时，算力仍是 大模型演进的底层约束与增长引擎，2010-2024 年代表性模型训练算力年均 增长 4-5 倍，头部模型更达到 9 倍水平。我们判断，算力扩张仍将构成行业 演进的核心节奏，前沿模型单次完整训练成本或在 2027 年达到十亿美元量 级。 2、训练：Mid Training 范式进一步拓展训练边界。Mid T ...

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Overweight" [10] - The communication equipment manufacturing sector is also rated as "Overweight" [10] Core Insights - The communication sector saw a significant increase in holdings, with the top ten funds holding 7.26% of the communication sector, up 3.58 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking the highest quarterly holding ratio since 2019 [2][3] - The sector's overweight ratio increased to 3.36%, up 2.90 percentage points from the previous quarter [3][14] - Key areas of investment include optical modules, liquid cooling, optical chips, and optical fiber cables, while operators, data centers, and Beidou systems saw reduced holdings [3][14] - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the communication sector as of November 7, 2025, is 43.62x, which is at the 69.3% historical percentile since early 2011 [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The communication index rose by 0.92% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.19% [2][13] Fund Holdings - In Q3 2025, public funds increased their holdings in the communication sector, with significant increases in companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Yingweike, and Yuanjie Technology, with total market value increases of 82.43 billion, 78.93 billion, 9.29 billion, 4.06 billion, and 3.79 billion respectively [3][25] - The top five companies by increase in holdings during Q3 2025 saw stock price increases of 176.8%, 188.0%, 110.8%, 169.2%, and 120.3% respectively [25][26] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include Xinyi Sheng, Zhongxing Communication, Ruijie Network, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, and Hengtong Optoelectronics, all rated as "Buy" [10][58] - The report highlights the potential for AI computing chain investments, particularly in optical modules and related technologies [2][3] Valuation and Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the AI computing sector, with companies like Xinyi Sheng expected to benefit significantly from the demand for high-speed products [59][62] - Adjustments to profit forecasts for companies like Zhongxing Communication and Ruijie Network reflect a cautious outlook due to market conditions, but long-term growth potential remains [59][62]

Government Shutdown Duration and Impact - As of November 9, the U.S. government has been shut down for 40 days, marking a historical record[2] - The shutdown is primarily due to political polarization, with both parties believing it benefits them[2] - It is expected that the government will remain closed for at least another 1-2 weeks, likely reopening before Thanksgiving (November 27)[3] Economic and Employment Effects - The shutdown has resulted in at least 670,000 federal employees being furloughed and approximately 730,000 working without pay[10] - If the shutdown continues until December 1, the total unpaid wages could reach approximately $21 billion[10] - The impact on GDP growth for Q4 2025 is projected to be a reduction of over 1 percentage point, with a rebound expected in Q1 2026[5] Data Release Delays - Key economic data for September and October, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, have been delayed due to the shutdown[4] - If the government reopens in 1-2 weeks, some data may be released shortly thereafter, but the timing remains uncertain[19] - October non-farm payroll data may be published alongside November data in early December[20] Market and Policy Implications - The shutdown has led to a rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance by $62.7 billion, which may tighten liquidity marginally[36] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once in December 2025 and potentially 1-2 more times in June 2026[37] - The reopening of the government is anticipated to alleviate some liquidity pressures in the market[36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 31.50 [1][5]. Core Views - The report indicates that the demand for oxalic acid is expected to improve due to growth in the rare earth and lithium battery sectors, with a competitive landscape that is favorable [1]. - The company has a production capacity of 700,000 tons per year for oxalic acid and 300,000 tons per year for caprolactam, positioning it to benefit from the anticipated recovery in market conditions [1]. - The report highlights that the domestic competition for oxalic acid is relatively good, with the company holding a significant market share [3]. Summary by Sections Oxalic Acid Market Outlook - The apparent consumption of oxalic acid in China is projected to reach approximately 417,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 87%. The rare earth separation and new energy sectors contribute significantly to this demand [2]. - The oxalic acid precipitation method is a mature technology for rare earth separation, which is expected to support continued demand growth as the strategic importance of rare earth resources increases [2]. Competitive Landscape - As of November 2025, the domestic oxalic acid production capacity is about 1.19 million tons, with a concentrated market where the company holds a 59% share [3]. - The company utilizes a gasification platform to co-produce dimethyl carbonate and oxalic acid, which offers cost and environmental advantages over traditional methods [3]. Caprolactam Market Dynamics - The caprolactam industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with companies discussing measures to reduce production by 20% and increase prices by RMB 100 per ton [4]. - The report anticipates that the supply-demand balance will improve, aiding in price recovery for various chemical products [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 32 billion, RMB 45 billion, and RMB 54 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.50, RMB 2.10, and RMB 2.56 [5][9]. - The target price of RMB 31.50 reflects a 15x PE ratio for 2026, considering the company's scale advantages and growth potential from new projects [5].

Macro Insights - Core inflation in China rebounded in October 2025, with CPI rising 0.2% year-on-year compared to a previous decline of 0.3%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus expectation of -0.1% [2] - The global manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery in October, remaining above the threshold for the third consecutive month, indicating resilience in the global manufacturing cycle despite a marginal decline in new export orders [2][3] - The U.S. employment data showed mixed results, with ADP employment figures exceeding expectations, while uncertainty around tariff policies increased due to potential legal challenges [3] Industrial Production and Exports - High-frequency indicators from ports showed a slight year-on-year recovery, suggesting a marginal improvement in export sentiment for November, while industrial production remained resilient [4] - October exports experienced a short-term disturbance, declining to -1.1% year-on-year from a previous 8.3% [4] Investment Strategy - The A-share market showed a rebound, led by manufacturing and cyclical sectors, while technology stocks continued to adjust [5] - The report suggests a shift in focus towards profit-driven investment strategies, with an emphasis on advanced manufacturing and consumer sectors as signs of economic recovery emerge [5] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend stocks and small-cap stocks, while maintaining a balanced sector allocation [7] Commodity Market - Commodity strategies showed a slight increase of 0.57% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 3.17% [8] - The report highlights a strong performance in the commodity term structure simulation, particularly in agricultural products and industrial metals, while energy and chemical sectors faced declines [8] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market is experiencing a tug-of-war at key levels, with expectations of a narrow trading range in the short term due to concerns over AI bubbles and year-end profit-taking [13] - The report notes a seasonal effect in the bond market, with expectations for a year-end rally despite pressures from rising interest rates and market dynamics [14] Transportation Sector - The transportation sector showed strong profitability in Q3 2025, with airports, oil transportation, and railways performing well, while logistics and express delivery exhibited mixed results [17] - The report recommends specific stocks in the transportation sector that are expected to benefit from ongoing profitability improvements [17] Energy and New Power - The recent white paper on carbon neutrality emphasizes the importance of new energy storage and grid upgrades, indicating a favorable outlook for related sectors [18] - The report identifies three key areas for investment: new energy and storage, grid upgrades, and traditional power sources [18] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is undergoing transformation, with opportunities arising from supply innovations and changing consumer preferences [19] - The report highlights trends in various consumer segments, including beauty and lifestyle products, indicating potential for growth in these areas [19] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in product demand due to supply-side reforms and improved pricing dynamics [27] - Specific companies within the chemical sector are recommended based on their potential to benefit from these trends [27][30]

证券研究报告 金工 风险提示：宏观经济大幅波动、美联储货币政策超预期、全球地缘政治风险 增加、产业政策风险、市场价格波动超预期等可能会影响商品价格走势，观 点仅供参考。 商品整体震荡调整，市场情绪偏弱 2025 年 11 月 09 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 期限结构模拟组合上周创 2010 年以来新高 商品融合策略近两周上涨 0.57%，今年以来上涨 3.17%。在三个子策略中， 商品期限结构模拟组合近期表现较好，近两周上涨 0.90%，今年以来上涨 6.44%，期限结构组合在 11 月 7 日创 2010 年以来历史新高。收益贡献靠 前的品种是甲醇、棕榈油、聚丙烯，收益贡献分别为 0.34%、0.22%、0.14%。 能化板块近期跌幅较大，组合做空能化品种，获取较高正收益。期限结构模 拟组合最新持仓中，仓位分布主要做多农产品和工业金属板块，做空能源化 工板块。和上月持仓相比，组合的工业金属板块的多头仓位增加，农产品空 头仓位略降，能化的空头仓位增加。 商品整体震荡调整，市场情绪偏弱 近半月商品市场涨跌分化，南华商品指数下跌 0.74%。黄金短期价格维持震 荡，因避险情绪边际减弱、多头市场拥挤度较高等因素， ...

- The "A-Share Market Timing Model" evaluates the overall directional judgment of the A-share market using four dimensions: valuation, sentiment, funds, and technicals. The model generates daily signals with values of 0, ±1, representing neutral, bullish, and bearish views, respectively. The model's logic includes mean reversion for valuation and sentiment, and trend continuation for funds and technicals[2][9][15] - The "Style Timing Model" favors a barbell structure of dividend and small-cap styles. For the dividend style, the model uses the relative momentum of the CSI Dividend Index to the CSI All Share Index, the 10Y-1Y term spread, and the interbank pledged repo transaction volume. For the small-cap style, the model employs a trend model based on the difference in momentum and trading volume between small-cap and large-cap stocks[3][17][21] - The "Industry Rotation Model" uses genetic programming to directly extract factors from the volume, price, and valuation characteristics of industry indices. The model updates its factor library quarterly and rebalances weekly, selecting the top five industries with the highest multi-factor composite scores for equal-weight allocation[4][29][34] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" employs a macro factor risk parity framework, selecting four macro risk sources: growth above/below expectations and inflation above/below expectations. The model actively overweights favored quadrants based on macro expectation momentum, adjusting monthly[5][39][42] - The "A-Share Market Timing Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 36.03%, with an excess return of 8.86% over the Wind All A Index, which had a return of 27.18%[2][9] - The "Style Timing Model" for the dividend style yielded a year-to-date return of 25.04%, with an excess return of 7.83% over the benchmark, which had a return of 17.21%[17][20] - The "Style Timing Model" for the small-cap style achieved a year-to-date return of 78.29%, with an excess return of 30.25% over the benchmark, which had a return of 48.04%[22][27] - The "Industry Rotation Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 40.67%, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.96 percentage points[4][32] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" achieved a year-to-date return of 11.10%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.22, a maximum drawdown of 2.67%, and a Calmar ratio of 5.15[5][40][43]

市场波动下均衡配置重要性凸显 2025 年 11 月 09 日│中国内地 海外周报 近期科技股调整，全球股市波动率放大 上周日经 225、韩国综指、纳斯达克及恒生科技分别下跌 4.1%、3.7%、3.0%、 1.2%。大型 AI 科技相关公司回调引发更大关注，Mag7 中英伟达领跌 7.1%、 特斯拉与 META 同样跌幅明显，亚马逊和苹果表现更具韧性。恒生科技自 10 月初开始调整，10 月 2 日高点正是华泰港股情绪指标进入贪婪区间时点 （《"恐惧与贪婪"：我们如何量化港股市场情绪》，2025/9/7），后续市 场在回调过程中遇关税风波再起，走势整体偏弱，我们也在此前周报中持续 提示短期择时上"抄底"交易还需时间（《短期情绪待释放，中期仍有重估 空间》，2025/10/12）。截至上周五，VIX 上升至 19.1，恒生波指相对稳定。 证券研究报告 策略 是什么触发了回调？AI 叙事扰动和流动性压力的共振 我们在《高处如何布局？——2026 年美股展望》（2025/11/4）中指出， 当前科技行情接近 1998 年，并建议在 2026 年板块配置更加均衡。K 型分 化的上部分科技延续强劲表现或需要两个催化： ...

DoorDash (DASH US) 增长再投资下短期利润略逊预期 2025 年 11 月 07 日│美国 互联网 证券研究报告 DoorDash 公布 3Q25 业绩：GOV（总交易额）达 250.2 亿美元，yoy+25.1%， 超 VA 一致预期（下称预期）1.9%；收入 34.5 亿美元，yoy+27.3%，超预 期 2.6%，主要得益于月活用户显著增长和平均订单金额及频率的同比提升； GAAP 净利润 2.4 亿美元，预期 2.9 亿美元；调整后 EBITDA 为 7.5 亿美 元，yoy+42%，基本符合预期。4Q 交易额指引中值高于预期 1.7%，而调 整后 EBITDA 指引中值低于预期 10.6%。公司本季度核心经营指标增长表 现亮眼，但是利润端不及预期，主因运营成本的上升和 Deliveroo 的整合。 同时公司提出 26 年将增加数亿美元的再投资，可能会带来短期盈利压力， 但是我们认为有利于中长期的持续发展，并看好公司在国际业务和多品类垂 直方向的增长潜力，维持买入评级。 总交易额超预期，核心品类与国际扩张双驱动 3Q25 公司订单量达 7.76 亿单，yoy +21%，超预期 0.4% ...