证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 根据中国充电联盟，25 年 1-5 月我国新增充电桩 158.3 万台（同比+19%）， 其中公用桩 50.4 万台（同比+56%），私用桩 158.3 万台（同比+19%）； 公用桩当中，新增直流桩 25.2 万台（同比+75%），新增交流桩 25.1 万台 （同比+39%）。截至 25 年 5 月直流桩保有量口径下，功率小于等于 120kW 的直流桩仍为主流（占比达67.8%），功率大于240kW的直流桩占比达8.5%， 仍有较大的提升空间。我们认为随着快充的逐步渗透，充电桩将逐步从交流 桩向直流桩渗透，直流桩也将从小功率向大功率迈进，我们预计大功率直流 桩及其产业链的需求增速或将显著高于行业。 充电设施大功率化利好制造端格局优化，提升运营龙头盈利能力 大功率充电桩产业链迎来政策催化 华泰研究 2025 年 7 月 08 日│中国内地 动态点评 四部门联合发布通知，明确未来大功率充电设施发展目标 7 月 7 日，国家发改委等四部门印发《关于促进大功率充电设施科学规划建 设的通知》，通知指出各省市要适时制定大功率充电设施专项规划，加强大 功率充电设施专项规划统筹，到 2027 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, with new home sales showing slight improvement while the second-hand home market remains subdued. Price stabilization is anticipated, with land premium rates at low levels [2][4] - The fixed income market is expected to remain strong, particularly in credit bonds, with a focus on medium to high-grade industrial bonds and city investment bonds for investment opportunities [3][5] - The international fertilizer prices have risen significantly, driven by increased global planting areas and limited new production capacity, benefiting domestic leading companies in the fertilizer sector [4] - The transportation sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with passenger transport profitability improving due to strong travel demand, while freight transport shows divergence in profitability across different segments [5][6] - The automotive industry is entering a phase of consolidation, with a focus on key players in the humanoid robot market, as technological advancements continue to drive market confidence [6][7] - The communication sector is projected to see a 7% year-on-year increase in net profit for the second quarter, with strong performance expected from telecom operators and the optical communication segment [8] Fixed Income - The credit bond market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on long-term investments and opportunities in high-quality city investment bonds [3] - Investors are advised to consider extending duration in their portfolios and to look for wave opportunities in the credit market [3] Fertilizer Industry - International fertilizer prices have increased by 42% for urea, 24% for diammonium phosphate, and 23% for potash since the beginning of the year, while domestic prices show a mixed trend [4] - The report recommends companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xingfa Group as beneficiaries of the improving fertilizer demand and profitability [4] Transportation Sector - The second quarter is expected to show improved profitability in passenger transport, particularly in aviation and railways, driven by strong travel demand [5] - Freight transport profitability is mixed, with some segments experiencing growth while others face challenges due to competition and demand fluctuations [5] Automotive Industry - The humanoid robot market is shifting towards a more competitive landscape, with a focus on companies that have strong supply chain orders and innovative technology [6] - The report suggests that the market will increasingly favor companies with significant advancements in technology and production capabilities [6] Communication Sector - The communication sector is expected to see a 7% increase in net profit, with strong growth in the optical communication and IDC segments [8] - The report highlights the potential for continued expansion in the communication industry, driven by domestic and international demand [8]

固收 信用债顺势继续挖掘 证券研究报告 SAC No. S0570520110003 SFC No. BSF414 华泰研究 文晨昕 研究员 wenchenxin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2068 仇文竹 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 朱沁宜 研究员 SAC No. S0570523080005 zhuqinyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 王晓宇 研究员 SAC No. S0570524070005 wangxiaoyu@htsc.com 2025 年 7 月 07 日│中国内地 信用周报 向怡乔 联系人 SAC No. S0570124020005 xiangyiqiao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 6 月市场抢跑，信用长债走强，7 月跨季后非银迎来增量，信用继续走强， 二永债领涨。往后看，基本面、资金面对债市仍偏多，跨季后理财债基有增 量，信用债及科创债 ETF 是新亮点，但能否继续扩容，核心仍在信用行情 的持续，目前标的估值已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication sector and related sub-sectors, including communication equipment manufacturing [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the AI industry, particularly the historical high market capitalization of Nvidia, which reached $3.92 trillion, surpassing Apple's previous record of $3.915 trillion [2][12]. - CoreWeave has deployed Nvidia's GB300 NVL72 system, achieving a 50-fold increase in inference model output compared to the previous generation [14]. - Century Internet has raised its revenue guidance from 9.1-9.3 billion yuan (10%-13% YoY growth) to 9.15-9.35 billion yuan (11%-13% YoY growth), reflecting optimism about new project launches and operational efficiency [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index fell by 0.10% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% [12]. - Nvidia's stock price surged to $160.98, contributing to a positive sentiment in the domestic supply chain stocks [2][12]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on the AI computing power chain in the communication industry for 2025, highlighting companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Taicheng Light, and Ruijie Network [3]. - Core companies in asset value reassessment include China Mobile and China Telecom, while new productivity sectors like satellite internet and low-altitude economy are also emphasized [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests monitoring investment opportunities in the AI computing power supply chain, including sectors like optical modules, copper connections, AIDC, switches, and liquid cooling [12][14]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - Zhongji Xuchuang (Buy, target price 164.78 yuan) - Xinyi Sheng (Buy, target price 128.76 yuan) - Tianfu Communication (Buy, target price 119.12 yuan) - Taicheng Light (Hold, target price 99.01 yuan) - Ruijie Network (Buy, target price 88.70 yuan) [8][52].

证券研究报告 宏观 美国"大而美"法案的近忧与远虑 2025 年 7 月 07 日│中国内地 专题研究 概览：7 月 3 日，众议院投票通过"大而美"法案，7 月 4 日特朗普签署后 正式生效。权衡各方诉求后惊险"闯关"的最终版本长达 869 页，其隐含财 政扩张力度明显超过 5 月通过的众议院版本。我们维持 2026 年美国财政赤 字 7%的预测。"大而美"法案的实施有望对 2025 年 4 季度和 2026 年增长 带来短期提振，但这一财政扩张可能代价不菲。"大而美"法案的内容、逻 辑及立法过程都可能进一步削弱美国政府公信力。短期，美国债务可持续性 和通胀风险均可能加剧。中长期，该法案再次验证了在当前政治和舆论环境 下，美国减税和增支均有极强惯性。法案中 2029 年后收敛赤字的愿景或难 以实现。该法案将可能进一步恶化美国收入和社会福利分配，加剧政治极化。 1.预计 10 年增加财政赤字 4.1 万亿美元，赤字率较 2010-19 年上升 3-4pct "大而美"法案在众议院以 218:214 获得通过，快于 2017 年特朗普第一届 任期的减税法案和奥巴马的全民医保法案，相对于法案长度和内容繁复程度 而 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Hang Seng Stock Connect Hong Kong Technology Theme Index (HSSCITI.HI) **Model Construction Idea**: The index focuses on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, ensuring high "technology purity" by excluding industries such as pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and automobiles, which may dilute the thematic investment returns[2][28][29] **Model Construction Process**: 1. The index selects stocks listed in Hong Kong that qualify for Southbound trading under the Stock Connect program[34] 2. It focuses on companies in the technology sector, including software, hardware, semiconductors, and internet services, while excluding non-core technology industries[29][34] 3. The index uses free-float market capitalization weighting, with individual stock weight capped at 10%[34] 4. The index is rebalanced semi-annually to ensure alignment with its thematic focus[34] **Model Evaluation**: The index demonstrates a high level of thematic focus, capturing the growth potential of the TMT sector while avoiding the risks associated with unrelated industries[29][34] Model Backtesting Results - **Hang Seng Stock Connect Hong Kong Technology Theme Index**: - 1-year annualized return: 55.90% - 3-year annualized return: 8.83% - Comparative performance: Outperformed the Hang Seng Index, which had 1-year and 3-year annualized returns of 36.31% and 3.55%, respectively[43] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Technology Sector Focus **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor emphasizes the concentration of investments in the TMT sector to maximize exposure to technology-driven growth opportunities[29][34] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Stocks are selected based on their classification within technology-related industries such as software, hardware, and semiconductors[29][34] 2. Non-technology sectors like pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and automobiles are excluded to maintain thematic purity[29][34] 3. The weighting scheme ensures a balanced representation of sub-sectors within the TMT domain, with significant allocations to internet platforms, hardware, and software companies[29][33] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures the growth dynamics of the technology sector while minimizing exposure to unrelated industries, enhancing the thematic investment appeal[29][34] Factor Backtesting Results - **Technology Sector Focus Factor**: - Sector allocation: Information Technology (66.55%), Consumer Discretionary (18.25%), Communication Services (15.20%)[33] - Sub-sector allocation: Hardware (27.35%), Software (25.75%), Semiconductors (13.45%), Media (14.42%)[31][33] - Top contributors: Internet platform companies (e.g., Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan) accounted for approximately 44% of the index weight[29][32]

证券研究报告 策略 还有哪些行业兼具高景气和性价比？ 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 策略周报 配置：近期金融及必需消费，中期服务消费、软件及科技硬件 港股市场三季度波动加大，反而提供配置窗口。近期可关注更具性价比和安 全边际的行业如食品饮料、家庭个护及金融，中期景气改善催化的服务消费 （旅游、茶饮、餐饮等）、耐用消费（潮玩、黄金珠宝、服饰等）、科技硬 件、软件服务（云、AI 应用、媒体）仍有配置价值。 中国资产重估受景气支撑，流动性宽松放大重估弹性 2025 年，中国上市企业 EPS 连续第三年上升。EPS 是衡量股权投资回报 的核心指标。MSCI 中国指数 EPS 在 2002~2014 年间年复合增长率 15.7%， 但 2015~2022 年间年复合增长率只有-2.94%。2002~2014 年间，MSCI 中 国指数 ROE 均值 15.4%，2015~2022 年间趋势性降至 10%左右。过去数 年上市公司并未实现每股收益增长，就不难解释为什么指数中枢很难抬升； 但一旦出现阶段性 EPS 预期改善，市场就容易快速反弹，如 2017 年和 2020~2021 年。2023 年以来，ROE ...

证券研究报告 固收 细数债市"微操"策略 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 固定收益周报 报告核心观点 2025 年已行至年中，投资者对债市操作难度攀升感受越发深刻。当前债市 趋势在，但利率下行空间受限、票面低、波动区间窄、交易"内卷"加剧、 策略挖掘过度等困境。投资者重点关注换券、信用债 ETF 重仓券埋伏、压 缩利差以及一级投标博边际等"微操"策略，获取α机会，不过目前已较为 拥挤。向前看，债市方向整体略偏多、空间有限，利差压缩等"微操"行情 仍可能有一定惯性。不过长端信用利差已较低，即便还能压缩，也要考虑配 置盘缺位以及可能的波动。此外，换券操作有所失灵，上周信用债 ETF 指 数成分券的利差压缩已到极致，建议投资者适度规避甚至"反其道行之"。 策略一："逐渐失灵"的换券操作 今年以来债市投资者对新老券"换券"等小策略的关注度不断上升，交易盘不 断超前"做左侧"。历史数据统计来看，换券操作能够起到一定的增厚效果。 不过二季度以来，随着市场进入交易"内卷"阶段，换券策略的赚钱效应存在 "失灵"迹象。一方面，新券向活跃券的转换周期显著缩短；另一方面，新老 券套息空间持续收窄，市场甚至在新券上市前就提 ...

证券研究报告 固收视角 特朗普政策迎来第一阶段"答卷" 华泰研究 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 | 张继强 | | --- | | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570518110002 | | SFC No. AMB145 | | zhangjiqiang@htsc.com | | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | 吴靖，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 本周，我们更新下特朗普政府在财政和关税方面的政策信息。 第一，"大而美"法案在参众两院通过，并交由总统签署，标志着法案正式落地，可能产生几点影响： （1）关于最终法案的赤字，根据国会预算办公室（CBO）估计，到 2035 年，法案将使国债发行增加 4 .1 万亿美元， 具体包括：4.5 万亿的减税-1.4 万亿的减支+0.3 万亿的增支+0.7 万亿的利息支出=4.1 万亿的净赤字影响。其中， 2026-2029 年的财政赤字率都可能在 7%以上，赤字率高点在 2028 年。 结合近期信息，关税政策的清晰度略有提高，但整体 ...

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 周观点：工信部召开座谈会，治理低 价无序竞争 华泰研究 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二十七周） 周观点：工信部部长召开座谈会，治理低价无序竞争 7 月 3 日，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开光伏行业制造业 企业座谈会，聚焦加快推动光伏产业高质量发展，听取光伏行业企业及行业 协会情况介绍和意见建议。14 家光伏行业头部企业及光伏行业协会负责人 作交流发言，介绍企业基本情况、面临的困难和问题，提出政策建议。会议 强调，要依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品 质，推动落后产能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。我们认为本次会议工 信部部长主持，头部企业负责人参会，为历次光伏企业座谈会的最高规格， 明确了政府与行业协同推动供给侧改革的大方向，看好后续供给侧改革细则 陆续落地，推动行业供需格局重塑。 子行业观点 1）新能源车：6 月国内新能源车销量走势较好；2）储能：SPE 提出欧洲储 能十倍扩容目标，我们看好欧洲大储起量；3）光伏：工信部部长召开座谈 会，治理低价无序竞争；4）风电：国内海风招中标稳步推进。 重点公司及动态 1）宁 ...