证券研究报告 传媒 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 08 日 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 王世豪 SAC：S1350524120005 wangshihao@huayuanstock.com 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： Manus 发布，AI Agent 的"iphone"时刻 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——AI 应用系列研究报告（二） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 中国团队推出 Manus，AI Agent 的"iphone"时刻。2025 年 3 月 6 日凌晨，中国 Monica.im 团队推出全球首款实现"全场景自主决策"的通用型 AI 代理 Manus。 在 GAIA 基准测试中，Manus 在所有三个难度级别上都取得了新的"最先进" （SOTA），其性能超越 Open AI 的同层次大模型。 联系人 Manus 的体验优势之一：自主规划和自主学习能力。Manus 能够自主规划来确保执 行任务，其自主学习能力也让 ...

Fixed Income - The forecast for February 2025 predicts new loans of 1 trillion yuan and social financing of 2.5 trillion yuan, with M2 reaching 320.6 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2][10] - The social financing growth rate is expected to be 8.3%, with a potential recovery in the growth rate later in the year [11][12] - The report anticipates a stable economic outlook for 2025, with a possible small rebound in 2026, and predicts the 10Y/30Y government bond yields to peak at 1.9%/2.2% in 2025 [13] Pharmaceutical Industry - Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) - Kelun Pharmaceutical is recognized as a successful representative of the transition from generic to innovative drugs, with a cumulative R&D investment of nearly 11.9 billion yuan from 2014 to 2023 [14][15] - The company has entered the global market for innovative drugs, with significant potential for future growth, particularly through its ADC research platform and partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies [16] - The antibiotic intermediate sector is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, while the intravenous infusion market is projected to grow steadily due to aging demographics [17][18] Public Utilities - China Resources Gas (01193.HK) - China Resources Gas is positioned as a leading city gas provider, focusing on projects in first- and second-tier cities, benefiting from its strategic location [21][22] - The company has reduced its reliance on connection services, with growth in comprehensive services and energy solutions supporting its profitability [23] - The report highlights a significant increase in operating cash flow and a low debt ratio, indicating strong financial health and potential for dividend growth [24][25] New Energy - Mingyang Technology (837663.BJ) - Mingyang Technology is identified as a national-level specialized manufacturer in automotive seat components, with an expected net profit growth of 18.66% in 2024 [27][28] - The company is benefiting from the trend of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, with a projected increase in the value of seat components [29] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the assembly business, which is expected to become a significant revenue driver [30][31] New Consumption - Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) - Semir Apparel focuses on casual and children's clothing, with its brands ranking among the top in their respective markets [34][35] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency and product appeal through strategic partnerships and brand collaborations, leading to improved profit margins [35] - The report forecasts steady growth in net profit from 2024 to 2026, supported by a strong market position and multi-brand strategy [36] New Consumption - Bairun Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ) - Bairun Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage market, with a market share exceeding 73% in 2023 [38][39] - The growth of the RTD market is driven by expanding consumer demographics and innovative product offerings [40] - The company is expected to maintain its market leadership and continue to grow its net profit from 2024 to 2026 [41]

Investment Rating - The report gives an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [5][8]. Core Views - The company is successfully transitioning from generic to innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant R&D investments expected to yield results in the near future. It has established itself as a leading player in the fields of large-volume intravenous solutions, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and innovative drugs, particularly in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) sector [7][10]. - The company has a strong pipeline of innovative drugs, with several products nearing commercialization, which presents substantial growth potential [7][10]. - The large-volume intravenous solutions segment is expected to maintain a stable competitive landscape, supported by an aging population and a solid market position [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. "Large-volume IV solutions + Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients + Innovative Drugs" as Growth Drivers - The company has a well-structured operational platform consisting of large-volume IV solutions, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and innovative drugs, with a focus on high-end manufacturing and new materials [19]. - The company has established a comprehensive industrial production system in the antibiotic intermediate sector, leveraging regional advantages [19]. 2. Sustained High R&D Investment - The company has invested nearly 11.9 billion RMB in R&D over the past decade, which is expected to enhance its position in the global ADC market [7][10]. - The ADC development platform "OptiDC" has been recognized internationally, with multiple projects in various stages of clinical development [32][34]. 3. Stable Landscape for Large-volume IV Solutions - The market for large-volume IV solutions has stabilized, with the top five companies accounting for approximately 80% of the market share [7][10]. - The demand for large-volume IV solutions is expected to grow steadily due to demographic trends, despite short-term price fluctuations [7][10]. 4. Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients Supply and Demand - The antibiotic intermediate sector has seen a reduction in outdated production capacity, leading to a stable market environment [7][10]. - The company is a leading supplier of antibiotic intermediates, with a strong market position and stable demand for its products [7][10]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 30.6 billion RMB, 28.0 billion RMB, and 36.2 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 24.6%, -8.4%, and 29.1% [6][8]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 16, 18, and 14 for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a focus on its core gas assets and a solid dividend logic [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a national leader in city gas, backed by China Resources Group, with a significant presence in first- and second-tier cities, enhancing its core asset attributes [9][17]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profit margins due to lower gas prices and improved sales pricing mechanisms, which are expected to support revenue growth [12][42]. - The company’s cash flow has significantly improved, with a notable increase in operating cash flow and a reduction in capital expenditures, indicating a strong potential for dividend growth [22][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price as of March 5, 2025, was HKD 26.10, with a market capitalization of HKD 60,395.74 million [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is HKD 55.63 billion, HKD 61.72 billion, and HKD 67.65 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [6][10]. - The expected dividend yields for 2024-2026 are 4.6%, 5.1%, and 5.6% based on the current stock price [6][10]. Business Overview - The company operates 276 city gas projects, with a retail gas volume increasing from 1.371 billion cubic meters in 2008 to 38.784 billion cubic meters in 2023, maintaining a market share of 9.83% in 2023 [17][18]. - The revenue structure has shifted, with gas sales becoming the primary profit driver, accounting for 56.15% of tax-preferred profits in 2023 [18][20]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The operating cash flow reached HKD 10.16 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 133.4%, with a free cash flow of HKD 1.9 billion in the first half of 2024 [22][24]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 29.8% in 2016 to 50.3% in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.15% in dividends per share since 2008 [25][60]. Strategic Positioning - The company is strategically positioned in economically developed regions, benefiting from high population density and industrial clustering, which supports gas sales growth [38][40]. - The report highlights the potential for further market consolidation and growth in the city gas sector, driven by government policies promoting mergers and acquisitions [40][46]. Risk Management - The company has managed to reduce its reliance on connection profits, with a significant increase in comprehensive service and energy business profits, which helps mitigate risks associated with declining connection revenues [12][53].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential in the automotive seating sector [5][6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the trends of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, with a projected 18.66% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 [5]. - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of core components for automotive seat adjustment systems, offering customized high-performance parts [5]. - The expected revenue for 2024 is 304 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.99%, with a net profit of approximately 78.95 million yuan [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is 29.60 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 3,054.72 million yuan [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 258 million yuan in 2023 to 304 million yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.99% [7]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 67 million yuan in 2023 to 79 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.90% growth rate [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.64 yuan in 2023 to 0.77 yuan in 2024 [7]. Business Development - The company is expanding its product lines, including electric hinges and assembly products, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue growth [5]. - The company has a high gross margin of around 45%, indicating a strong competitive position in the market [5][6]. Market Trends - The automotive industry is expected to see a production and sales increase, with new energy vehicles projected to account for 40.9% of total vehicle sales in 2024, up from 9.3 percentage points from 2023 [5]. - The market for automotive seats is projected to grow, with a production volume of 15,976.8 million units in 2023 and a demand of 15,308.7 million units [5].

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 05 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | | 日 | | 月 | 03 | | | | 03 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 6.28 | | | | | | | | | | 一 年 最 | 高 | | | 7.48/4.34 | | / | | | 低 | 内 | 最 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 16,918.89 | | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 13,869.02 | | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the company holding a dominant market position, achieving a market share of 73% in 2023 [6][31]. - The company's product matrix, which includes the "358" series (micro-drunk, refreshing, and strong), effectively targets different consumer demographics and drinking scenarios, enhancing brand recognition and loyalty [10][40]. - The report anticipates steady revenue growth, projecting operating income to reach 41.1 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Background - The company was founded in 1997, initially focusing on flavor and fragrance development, and has since evolved into a leading player in the RTD beverage sector through strategic acquisitions and product innovation [18][22]. 2. Market Potential - The RTD market in China is projected to continue expanding, with a CAGR of 19% in volume and 18% in sales from 2018 to 2023, indicating substantial growth potential compared to Japan's market [6][31]. - The consumer base is primarily young adults aged 18-34, with a significant female demographic, driven by the appeal of low-alcohol, flavorful beverages [31][36]. 3. Product Marketing and Channel Expansion - The company has established a robust marketing strategy that includes a diverse product range and targeted promotions, which have successfully captured consumer interest and expanded market share [10][40]. - The distribution strategy focuses on offline channels, which accounted for 86% of revenue in 2023, with a steady increase in the number of distributors [48][51]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit to reach 1.035 billion yuan by 2026, with a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 34 to 25 over the same period, reflecting improved profitability [5][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to realize benefits from its transformation and upgrade, highlighting its high dividend value [4] - The company anticipates a significant increase in shareholder profit for 2024, estimated between HKD 2.8 billion to HKD 3.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 53% to 63% [7] - The profit growth is primarily driven by the confirmation of land exchange tax benefits from the South China logistics park transformation project, successful inclusion of two logistics port projects into public REITs, and a reduction in foreign exchange losses due to optimized borrowing currency structure [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: HKD 15,529.3 million - 2023: HKD 20,523.8 million (32.2% YoY growth) - 2024E: HKD 14,842.7 million (-27.7% YoY decline) - 2025E: HKD 15,908.7 million (7.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 17,030.8 million (7.1% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2022: HKD 1,253.9 million - 2023: HKD 1,901.6 million (51.7% YoY growth) - 2024E: HKD 2,945.5 million (54.9% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 4,003.9 million (35.9% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 4,021.8 million (0.4% YoY growth) [6] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with a payout ratio increasing from approximately 40% (2013-2016) to around 50% (2017-2023), totaling HKD 12.4 billion in dividends during that period [7] Market Performance - The company is expected to return to a value range due to its high dividend yield, projected at approximately 8.2%, 11.2%, and 11.3% for 2024-2026 [7] - The transformation project of the South China logistics park is entering a realization phase, with land preparation providing profit increments [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the sector [5][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of lithium battery roller press equipment in China, with a focus on dry electrode and solid-state battery technologies to drive innovation [5][7]. - The lithium battery roller press equipment market is expected to grow significantly, reaching 6 billion RMB by 2025, with the company holding the largest market share [7][10]. - The transition from wet to dry electrode manufacturing processes is anticipated to reduce overall lithium battery production costs by 10%-15%, positioning the company favorably in the market [10][11]. - The solid-state battery market is projected to expand, with potential market size reaching 20 billion RMB by 2030, creating new opportunities for the company's equipment [11][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Position in Lithium Battery Roller Press Equipment - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 113.18% in revenue from 2020 to 2023, establishing itself as the top player in the domestic market [10][19]. - In 2023, the Chinese lithium battery roller press equipment industry reached a scale of 4.47 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.6% [34]. 2. Transition from Wet to Dry Electrode Technology - The dry electrode manufacturing process is expected to become mainstream due to its efficiency and cost-saving benefits [10][11]. - The company has established a joint venture with Qingyan Electronics to enhance its technological advantages in dry electrode manufacturing [10][11]. 3. Promising Outlook for Solid-State Battery Market - Solid-state batteries are considered safer and more stable than traditional batteries, with a projected market size of 20 billion RMB by 2030 [11][11]. - The company is actively collaborating with the Sichuan New Energy Vehicle Innovation Center to develop key equipment and processes for solid-state battery production [11][11]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 164 million RMB, 194 million RMB, and 256 million RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 44.2, 37.2, and 28.3 [6][8].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 04 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年03月04日 华源晨会精粹 北交所 同力股份(834599.BJ)点评：预计 2024 年归母净利润 yoy+27%，静待大型 化、新能源政策落地。公司发布业绩快报，预计 2024 年实现营收 61.85 亿元 （yoy+5.53%）、归母净利润 7.78 亿元（yoy+26.54%）。公司归母净利润增长原 因为:1）2024 年不断推出或换代的大型化产品、新能源产品、无人驾驶产品等新产 品的毛利较高；2）不断优化工艺设计、优化人员配置、降本增效、规模化效应等都 取得一定效果，致使盈利能力不断提升。趋势：国内露天煤矿开采率有望提升，国 外宽体自卸车具备推广前景。看点：在刚性矿卡、新能源车型、无人驾驶车型方面 持续加大研发投入。公司属于非公路宽体自卸车的专业性厂商，近年来分红持续稳 定，具有较好成长性、优质经营质量和较高股东回报，我们看好其在国内存量替代 以及海外市场开拓方面所具备的较强竞争力。 风险提示：工程机械行业波动风险、无实际控制人风险、应收账款余额较大风险。 电子 ...