申万一级电子指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Title] 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Message]2025-03-27 结果评估： 区间年化收益：-5.48% 波动率（年化）：32.72% 夏普率：-0.17 最大回撤：38.97% 指数期间总回报率：31.87 % 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 融 工 程 点 评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 [Table_Summary] 图表 1 净值 图表 2 历史高点 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2023-03-07 2023-04-12 2023-05-22 2023-06-28 2023-08-02 2023-09-06 2023-10-19 2023-11-23 2023-12 ...

- The industry crowding monitoring model was constructed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan first-level industry indices daily. The model identifies industries with high crowding levels, such as mechanical equipment, basic chemicals, and power equipment, while industries like media, non-bank finance, real estate, and electronics exhibit lower crowding levels. The model also tracks significant daily changes in crowding levels for industries like agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and communication[4] - The Z-score model for ETF premium rate was developed to screen ETF products with potential arbitrage opportunities. The model uses rolling calculations to identify signals for ETF products, while also warning of potential risks of price corrections[5] - Daily fund flow analysis for ETFs shows that broad-based ETFs had a net inflow of 21.43 billion yuan, with top inflows into ETFs like the SSE 50 ETF (+8.67 billion yuan), A500 Index ETF (+5.15 billion yuan), and CSI 300 ETF (+4.09 billion yuan). Conversely, top outflows were observed in ETFs like CSI 500 ETF HuaXia (-2.64 billion yuan), STAR 50 ETF (-2.25 billion yuan), and CSI 500 ETF (-1.92 billion yuan)[6] - Industry-themed ETFs experienced a net outflow of 4.03 billion yuan, with top inflows into ETFs like Banking ETF (+1.72 billion yuan), Power ETF (+1.00 billion yuan), and Gaming ETF (+0.87 billion yuan). Top outflows were seen in ETFs like Photovoltaic ETF (-2.93 billion yuan), STAR Chip ETF (-1.87 billion yuan), and STAR AI ETF (-1.04 billion yuan)[6] - Style strategy ETFs had a net inflow of 7.77 billion yuan, with top inflows into ETFs like Dividend Low Volatility ETF (+2.89 billion yuan), Dividend ETF (+1.64 billion yuan), and Free Cash Flow ETF (+1.30 billion yuan). Top outflows were observed in ETFs like Dividend ETF YiFangDa (-0.46 billion yuan), Dividend ETF Boshi (-0.29 billion yuan), and Deep Dividend ETF (-0.19 billion yuan)[6] - Cross-border ETFs recorded a net inflow of 17.15 billion yuan, with top inflows into ETFs like Hang Seng Internet ETF (+2.85 billion yuan), Hang Seng Technology ETF Fund (+1.77 billion yuan), and Hang Seng ETF (+1.77 billion yuan). Top outflows were seen in ETFs like Hang Seng Medical ETF (-2.10 billion yuan), H-Share ETF (-1.47 billion yuan), and Hong Kong Stock Innovative Drug ETF (-0.94 billion yuan)[6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Trend Tracking Model for SW First-Level Nonferrous Metals Index **Model Construction Idea**: The model assumes that the price movement of the target has strong local continuity, always following a certain trend. Reversal trends are assumed to last significantly shorter than trend continuations. In cases of narrow-range consolidation, the model assumes the continuation of the previous trend. When a major trend exists, the price movement within a short observation window will likely follow the local trend. If a reversal occurs, the price change at the start and end of the observation window will exceed the range caused by random fluctuations, thus eliminating the impact of randomness[2][3]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the difference between the closing price on day T and day T-20, denoted as `del`. 2. Calculate the volatility (`Vol`) from day T-20 to day T (excluding T). 3. If the absolute value of `del` exceeds N times `Vol`, it is considered that the current price has broken out of the original oscillation range and formed a trend. The trend direction (long/short) corresponds to the sign of `del`. 4. If the absolute value of `del` is less than or equal to N times `Vol`, the current trend is assumed to continue, and the trend direction is the same as on day T-1. 5. For the stock market, where volatility is higher and small wave opportunities are more frequent, N is set to 1 for tracking. 6. The combined results of long and short returns are used as the final evaluation basis[3]. **Model Evaluation**: The model is not suitable for direct application to the SW First-Level Nonferrous Metals Index, as it failed to achieve significant cumulative returns during the evaluation period and showed poor adaptability in most timeframes[4]. Model Backtesting Results - **Trend Tracking Model for SW First-Level Nonferrous Metals Index**: - Annualized Return: -4.71%[3] - Annualized Volatility: 24.98%[3] - Sharpe Ratio: -0.19[3] - Maximum Drawdown: 25.42%[3] - Total Return of the Index During the Period: -0.03%[3]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" for the sub-sectors including general steel, other steel, and special materials [8] Core Insights - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced that the steel industry will be included in the national carbon market management, which is expected to drive low-carbon technology innovation and the elimination of outdated production capacity [7] - The overall performance of the steel sector has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.26% on March 26, 2025 [4] - The steel industry is experiencing a mixed performance among individual stocks, with the top three gainers being Hengxing Technology (+6.25%), Yitong New Materials (+4.71%), and Hangang Co. (+4.58%), while the top three losers are Bayi Steel (-3.47%), Xining Special Steel (-3.23%), and Shibi Bai (-2.22%) [5] Industry Data Summary - Futures prices show slight fluctuations: rebar (+0.06%), wire rod (-0.35%), hot-rolled coil (+0.12%), iron ore (+0.19%), coke (+1.35%), and coking coal (-0.05%) [6] - Current prices for steel products are as follows: iron ore at 758.53 yuan/ton, wire rod at 3431.99 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3399.27 yuan/ton, rebar at 3235.18 yuan/ton, coke at 1626.75 yuan/ton, and coking coal at 1042.14 yuan/ton [6] - The iron ore Platts index shows 65% fines at 114.95, 58% fines at 87.45, and 62% fines at 102.55 [6] Company Announcements - Hebei Steel Group has delivered Q345qENH bridge steel for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei expressway project, ensuring high-quality delivery to meet strict customer requirements [9] - Shougang Group has developed a low-carbon project with Zhongshan Qinggui, achieving 100% recycling of scrap steel and a 30% reduction in carbon emissions [9] - Fangda Special Steel has completed ultra-low emission transformation projects and implemented a smart control platform for real-time monitoring of pollutant emissions [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (000157) with a target price of 9.84, compared to the last closing price of 7.82 [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, and there is optimism regarding its globalization and diversification strategies [1][7]. - The report highlights a decline in revenue for 2024, amounting to 454.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.41% to 35.20 billion yuan [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 28.17% and a net margin of 8.81%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.63 percentage points and 0.80 percentage points, respectively [7]. - The company’s accounts receivable decreased by 10.26 billion yuan, a reduction of 20.16%, and inventory decreased by 1.76 billion yuan, a decline of 7.24% [7]. - The comprehensive collection rate reached 120.29%, an increase of 13.26 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 530.65 billion yuan, 624.63 billion yuan, and 718.32 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 50.23 billion yuan, 63.01 billion yuan, and 76.16 billion yuan [8]. - The expected revenue growth rates for these years are 16.7%, 17.7%, and 15.0%, respectively [8]. Market Position and Growth - The company’s traditional product lines, including concrete machinery and engineering cranes, are performing steadily, with overall export sales growing by over 35% [5]. - Emerging industries are also expanding, with significant growth in earth-moving machinery, agricultural machinery, and other new business segments [5]. - The company’s international strategy is progressing, with overseas revenue reaching 233.80 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.58%, accounting for 51.41% of total revenue [6]. Stock Data - The total share capital is 8.678 billion shares, with a total market capitalization of 678.62 billion yuan [3]. - The stock has seen a 12-month high of 9.53 yuan and a low of 5.72 yuan [3].

- The industry crowding monitoring model was constructed to monitor the daily crowding levels of Shenwan primary industry indices. The model identified high crowding levels in mechanical equipment, steel, and social services, while real estate, non-bank finance, and media showed lower crowding levels. Significant single-day crowding changes were observed in coal and public utilities[3] - The Z-score model was developed to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. The model uses rolling calculations to identify signals and also warns of potential risks of price corrections for the identified ETFs[4] - Daily net inflows and outflows of various ETF categories were analyzed, including broad-based ETFs, industry-themed ETFs, style-strategy ETFs, and cross-border ETFs. For example, the top three net inflow ETFs in the broad-based category were Sci-Tech 50 ETF (+8.03 billion yuan), Sci-Tech Board 50 ETF (+2.99 billion yuan), and A500 Index ETF (+1.48 billion yuan), while the top three net outflow ETFs were CSI 1000 ETF (-6.33 billion yuan), CSI 300 ETF (-3.81 billion yuan), and CSI 2000 ETF (-2.69 billion yuan[6][7] - The report provided a heatmap of industry crowding levels over the past 30 trading days, offering a visual representation of crowding trends across various industries[9] - The report included a table summarizing ETF product signals, highlighting specific ETFs such as the Chinese Medicine ETF, Medical Device Index ETF, and Electric Power ETF, which were flagged for potential attention based on the constructed models[12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Resources Beverage (02460) with a target price of HKD 18.75, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the market index in the next six months [1][6][12]. Core Insights - China Resources Beverage achieved a revenue of HKD 13.521 billion in 2024, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 23.12% to HKD 1.637 billion. The company declared a total cash dividend of HKD 1.158 billion, with a payout ratio of 70.77% [3][4][5]. - The company’s packaging water segment saw a revenue decline of 2.6% to HKD 12.124 billion, accounting for 89.7% of total revenue, while the second-line beverage business grew by 30.8% to HKD 1.4 billion, representing 10.3% of total revenue [4][5]. - The gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 47.3%, driven by increased self-owned production capacity and reduced outsourcing costs. The net profit margin also increased by 2.3 percentage points to 12.1% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of HKD 13.521 billion and a net profit of HKD 1.637 billion, with respective growth rates of 0.05% and 23.12% [3][7]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 14.453 billion, HKD 15.261 billion, and HKD 16.075 billion, with growth rates of 7%, 6%, and 5% respectively [7][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence in the large packaging water segment, which has shown a revenue increase of 8.6% year-on-year, while small packaging products faced a decline due to competitive pricing [4][5]. - The introduction of new products, such as the "Zhi Ben Qing Run" series, has significantly boosted sales, with a 122% increase in volume for this product line [4][6]. Operational Efficiency - The report highlights that internal efficiency improvements have led to a decrease in unit production costs, contributing to a notable increase in profitability [5][6]. - The company plans to further enhance its production capacity and reduce logistics costs by expanding its distribution network and optimizing transportation methods [6][9].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [64]. Core Insights - The release of the Blackwell Ultra platform marks the beginning of a new era in AI inference, with significant enhancements in training and testing capabilities [5][10]. - The Rubin Ultra NVL576 is anticipated to deliver a substantial performance boost, with a focus on vertical scaling [19][41]. - Changes in the GB300 and Rubin platform architectures are expected to stimulate new supply chain growth [3][48]. Summary by Sections I. Blackwell Ultra Platform Release - The Blackwell Ultra platform was unveiled at the GTC conference, aiming to enhance inference capabilities through increased computational power [5][10]. - The platform features a single card FP4 floating-point performance of 15 PetaFlops, a 50% increase compared to the B200 [10]. - Memory capacity has been upgraded to 288GB, also a 50% increase from the previous generation [14]. II. Rubin Ultra NVL576 Performance Enhancement - The upcoming Rubin Ultra NVL576 is expected to launch in the second half of 2027, featuring a performance increase of 14 times compared to the GB300 NVL72 [41]. - It will include HBM4 memory and achieve FP4 floating-point performance of 15 ExaFlops, significantly surpassing previous models [41][43]. III. GB300 & Rubin Platform Architecture Changes - The transition to a UBB+OAM architecture in the GB300 will allow for more flexible customer configurations compared to the previous Bianca board [48]. - The introduction of PTFE backplane architecture is anticipated to enhance transmission efficiency due to its low dielectric loss [49]. - Companies in the supply chain, such as Huadian Co., Shenghong Technology, and Jingwang Electronics, are expanding their capacities to meet the growing demand in AI-related sectors [52][55][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 3.257 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.49% [3][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 352 million yuan, up 2.67% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is expanding its low-altitude product offerings, including the GEOVIS smart low-altitude brain product and the Star Map Low Altitude Cloud V1.0 product, which integrate various advanced technologies [4] - The company has a robust gross margin of 49.59% and a net profit margin of 16.14% for 2024, with stable expense ratios [3][4] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 4.560 billion yuan in 2025, 5.929 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.114 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 40%, 30%, and 20% respectively [6][8] - The net profit is expected to reach 530 million yuan in 2025, 691 million yuan in 2026, and 822 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 50.68%, 30.30%, and 19.03% respectively [6][8] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.98 yuan in 2025, 1.27 yuan in 2026, and 1.51 yuan in 2027 [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a significant presence in the remote sensing field, with 12,375 active applications on its Star Map Cloud platform and a cumulative reach of 101.49 million terminal users [4] - The company is enhancing its capabilities in aerospace electronic systems manufacturing and developing commercial aerospace control service centers [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining (601899) with a target price of 18.05 [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 303.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.1 billion yuan, up 52% year-on-year [4][17] - The production of copper, gold, and silver reached record highs in 2024, with copper production at 1.068 million tons, gold at 72.9 tons, and silver at 435.8 tons [5][24][72] - The company has demonstrated significant cost control, with production costs for various minerals decreasing, leading to improved gross margins across key products [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 303.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 32.1 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 31.7 billion yuan for the year [4][17] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 73.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.7 billion yuan [17] 2. Production Growth - Copper production reached 1.068 million tons, a 6.1% increase year-on-year, while gold production was 72.9 tons, up 7.7% [5][24] - Silver production also increased by 5.8% to 435.8 tons, while zinc production saw a slight decline of 3.3% [68][72] 3. Exploration and Resource Management - The company has made significant advancements in exploration, with new copper and gold resources identified, enhancing overall resource reserves [6] 4. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company achieved a gross margin of 20% and a net profit margin of 11% in 2024, with notable improvements in gross margins for gold and copper products [18][7] - Cost reductions were evident, with production costs for gold and copper decreasing by 0.7% and 4.6% respectively [6][7] 5. Financial Health - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 55.2%, and return on equity (ROE) improved to 22.9% [8] - Operating cash flow for Q4 was 12.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.5% year-on-year increase [8]