Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels and significant changes in crowding dynamics[4] - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates crowding levels for each industry index based on specific metrics (not detailed in the report). It tracks daily changes and highlights industries with the highest and lowest crowding levels, as well as those with significant single-day changes[4] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights into industry crowding trends, helping investors identify potential opportunities or risks[4] 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies potential arbitrage opportunities in ETF products by calculating the Z-score of premium rates over a rolling window[5] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the premium rate of each ETF product as the difference between its market price and its indicative net asset value (IOPV), divided by the IOPV 2. Compute the Z-score of the premium rate over a rolling window to standardize the deviation from the mean 3. Use the Z-score to filter ETFs with significant deviations, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities or risks of price corrections[5] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies ETFs with potential mispricing, offering opportunities for arbitrage or caution against price reversals[5] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Top Crowded Industries (Previous Trading Day)**: Basic Chemicals, Machinery Equipment, Environmental Protection[4] - **Least Crowded Industries (Previous Trading Day)**: Media, Real Estate[4] - **Industries with Significant Single-Day Changes**: Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery[4] 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Application**: Used to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities and risks of price corrections[5] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were detailed in the report --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific factor backtesting results were detailed in the report

2025 年 03 月 28 日 行业日报 中性/维持 房地产 房地产 太平洋房地产日报（20250328）：杭州挂牌出让 4 宗地块，成交 楼面价纪录再次被刷新 走势比较 (20%) (8%) 4% 16% 28% 40% 24/3/11 24/5/22 24/8/2 24/10/13 24/12/24 25/3/6 子行业评级 | 房 地 产 开 发 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 和运营 | | | 房地产服务 | 无评级 | 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250327）：张 亚东辞任绿城中国董事会主席等职 务>>--2025-03-27 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250326）：山 东威海发文促进住房消费>>--2025- 03-26 <<太平洋房地产日报（20250325）：杭 州 101 亿元成交 4 宗宅地>>--2025- 03-25 证券分析师：徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@t ...

Quantitative Model and Construction - **Model Name**: Food and Beverage Trend Tracking Model [2] - **Model Construction Idea**: The model assumes that the price movement of the target has strong local continuity, always following a certain trend. Reversal periods are shorter than trend continuation periods. In cases of narrow consolidation, the model assumes the continuation of the previous trend. When observing a major trend, a short observation window is used to track the local trend. If a reversal occurs, the price movement at the start and end of the observation window will exceed the range caused by random fluctuations, eliminating the impact of randomness. [3] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the difference between the closing price on day T and day T-20, denoted as `del`. 2. Calculate the volatility (`Vol`) from day T-20 to day T (excluding day T). 3. If the absolute value of `del` exceeds `N` times `Vol`, the current price is considered to have exited the original oscillation range and formed a trend. The trend direction (long/short) corresponds to the sign of `del`. 4. If the absolute value of `del` is less than or equal to `N` times `Vol`, the current trend direction is assumed to continue, following the direction of day T-1. 5. For stock markets with higher volatility, `N` is set to 1 for tracking. 6. The combined results of long and short positions are used for final evaluation. Formula: $ del = P_{T} - P_{T-20} $ $ Vol = \sqrt{\frac{1}{20} \sum_{i=1}^{20} (P_{T-i} - \bar{P})^2} $ where $ P_{T} $ is the closing price on day T, $ P_{T-20} $ is the closing price on day T-20, and $ \bar{P} $ is the average price over the observation period. [3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is not suitable for directly tracking the Food and Beverage Index due to its inability to achieve excess returns over the tracking period. While it performed well during certain periods (e.g., June 4, 2024, to September 18, 2024), achieving historical highs, it struggled in other market conditions, especially during range-bound periods. [4] Model Backtesting Results - **Annualized Return**: -12.31% [3] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.84% [3] - **Sharpe Ratio**: -0.52 [3] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 36.61% [3] - **Total Return of Index During Period**: -22.69% [3]

[Table_Message]2025-03-28 申万一级农林牧渔偏离修复模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 计算区间内申万一级农林牧渔指数收盘价相对沪深 300 指数的值 cl。 计算 cl 在区间内的回撤序列 W。 计算 W 中单次回撤期间的最大值。 对于所有单次回撤最大幅度，做降序排列，得到序列 S，对 S 求和，得 到 T。 对 S 做逐步累加，当累加和达到或超过 T 的 80%时，停止累加，将 S 中 并未参与累加的值去除，则 S 保留下来的数值序列为 S1. 结果评估： 区间策略总收益：90.10% 标的买入并持有收益：9.82% 总超额：80.28% 最大回撤：33.61% 最长回撤时间：589 交易日 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 25.00, compared to the last closing price of 20.63 [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 58.91 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.12%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.82 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.61% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 25.00%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.25%, up by 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The pharmaceutical raw materials segment saw a significant gross profit increase, contributing 48% to the total gross profit, with sales revenue of 24.77 billion, a year-on-year growth of 11.74% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 58.91 billion, with a gross margin of 25.00% and a net margin of 13.25%. The fourth quarter alone generated revenue of 14.73 billion, with a net profit of 2.03 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 64.28% [4][5]. - The company forecasts revenues of 67.15 billion, 75.83 billion, and 82.96 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 9.54 billion, 11.44 billion, and 13.16 billion [7][10]. Business Segments - The pharmaceutical raw materials business achieved sales of 24.77 billion, with a gross margin of 28.36%, while the animal health raw materials segment reported sales of 18.31 billion, with a gross margin of 18.86% [5][6]. - The company has over 21 products with sales exceeding 50 million, and 13 products exceeding 100 million, indicating strong market presence and growth in sales volume [6]. Market Position - The company maintains a high market share in its main products and aims to achieve global leadership in 30 scaled products, with a production capacity for 120 products [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 60.00, compared to the last closing price of 39.87 [1]. Core Insights - The company, Zhimin Da (688636), is a leading player in the domestic embedded computer industry, focusing on key national sectors and providing customized solutions, products, and services [4][11]. - The demand for embedded computers in key sectors is expected to grow significantly due to the acceleration of defense information construction and the increasing intelligence of equipment [5][51]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of orders in key sectors, with expectations of improved financial performance in the coming years [5][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhimin Da has over 20 years of experience in embedded technology, ensuring its leading position in the industry through core technical advantages [12][13]. - The company has a stable revenue growth rate, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.85% from 2019 to 2024, and a gross margin maintained above 40% [24]. 2. Market Demand - The embedded computer market is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for intelligent equipment in various industries, including communications and healthcare [4][42]. - The global market for embedded systems in key sectors is projected to grow from USD 101.9 billion in 2020 to USD 238 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 12.9% [44]. 3. Product Applications - The company’s products are widely used in key sectors, including airborne and missile systems, with a focus on enhancing capabilities in these areas [5][61]. - The company has expanded its product offerings to include applications in satellite and drone markets, which are expected to contribute to future growth [5][28]. 4. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to be CNY 0.19 million, CNY 1.13 million, and CNY 1.54 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.17, CNY 1.01, and CNY 1.37 [5][7]. - The expected PE ratios for the same periods are 233, 40, and 29, indicating a potential for significant valuation improvement as the market recovers [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [10]. Core Views - The acquisition of Nanyue Biological Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. for 4.2 billion yuan is a significant step in the company's "plasma expansion" strategy, which is expected to enhance overall plasma collection by over 18% [5][4]. - Nanyue Biological is the only blood product manufacturer in Hunan with GMP certification, operating nine plasma collection stations with a designed capacity of 500 tons [4]. - The company anticipates revenue growth from 85.98 billion yuan in 2024 to 114.52 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to rise from 22.88 billion yuan to 31.41 billion yuan during the same period [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 6.638 billion shares and a market capitalization of 456.69 billion yuan, with a 12-month high of 8.68 yuan and a low of 6.42 yuan [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 85.98 billion yuan, 103.01 billion yuan, and 114.52 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 20%, and 11% [6]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 22.88 billion yuan, 28.29 billion yuan, and 31.41 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 29%, 24%, and 11% [6]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Nanyue Biological is part of a broader strategy to enhance the company's market position and operational capacity, supported by Haier Group's involvement in the company's health sector initiatives [5]. - The company will control 12 out of 17 plasma collection stations in Hunan, significantly boosting its market presence [5].

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The bond market has experienced a general decline, with the expectation of interest rate cuts being revised downwards due to a tightening liquidity environment. The market is stabilizing around the six-month moving average, indicating potential for allocation [3][15]. - The stock market shows mixed performance, with small-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 underperforming, while the STAR Market is buoyed by low-priced semiconductor stocks. There is a notable rebound in low-priced stocks in sectors like aquaculture and pharmaceuticals [4][18]. - The foreign exchange market indicates that the onshore RMB against the USD is showing strong support around 7.1, with expectations of continued depreciation pressure due to trade war concerns [5][28]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In the bond market, it is recommended to manage duration effectively while considering allocation opportunities [8][15]. - For the A-share market, caution is advised regarding the feedback risks associated with small-cap technology stocks, while low-priced dividend, consumer, and healthcare sectors are highlighted as having favorable odds and returns [4][21]. - In the US stock market, a short-term rebound is expected, but mid-term adjustments are likely to continue, suggesting investors should wait for long-term buying opportunities [9][24]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The chemical and pharmaceutical sectors are leading the market, with significant gains observed in chemical raw materials and pharmaceuticals, both exceeding 2% [21]. - The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, is showing mixed results, with high-priced stocks underperforming while some low-priced stocks are gaining traction [21]. - The commodity market has seen a slight increase, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 0.1%, led by coal, oil, and steel sectors, indicating a strong bullish signal for investors to buy on dips [11][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 435 HKD, compared to the last closing price of 410.40 HKD [1][3]. Core Insights - The company, Mixue Group, reported a total revenue of 24.829 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.3%, and a net profit of 4.437 billion CNY, up 41.4% year-on-year [1][3]. - The number of stores exceeded 46,479, with a rapid expansion in third-tier and lower cities, indicating strong store opening momentum [2][3]. - The company's gross margin improved to 32.46%, driven by enhanced supply chain efficiency and reduced raw material costs, contributing to a significant increase in net profit margin to 19.94% [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 24.829 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 22% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 4.437 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 41% [5]. - The average revenue per store was 591,000 CNY, showing a slight decline of 3.2% year-on-year [1][2]. Store Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company had 46,479 stores, with a net increase of 8,350 stores year-on-year [2]. - The distribution of stores across different city tiers is as follows: first-tier (1,983), new first-tier (8,143), second-tier (7,600), and third-tier and below (23,858) [2]. - The franchise model remains robust, with 46,462 franchise stores and a closure rate of 3.8% [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 32.46%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit margin increased significantly to 19.94%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 20%, 18%, and 16% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 15%, 19%, and 17% [3][5].

(30%) (12%) 6% 24% 42% 60% 24/3/27 24/6/7 24/8/18 24/10/29 25/1/9 25/3/22 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 31.13/31.13 总市值/流通(亿港元) 467.52/467.52 12 个月内最高/最低价 (港元) 17.28/9 2025 年 03 月 27 日 公司点评 买入/维持 雅迪控股(01585) 目标价: 昨收盘:15.02 雅迪控股：2024H2 业绩短期承压，中高端+出海值得期待 ◼ 走势比较 相关研究报告 <<收入利润双位数增长，优化产品结 构和终端有望持续增厚业绩>>-- 2024-03-20 <<雅迪控股 23H1 点评：拓展价格带 推升销量，盈利压力逐步释放>>-- 2023-08-30 证券分析师：孟昕 E-MAIL：mengxin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524020001 研究助理：赵梦菲 E-MAIL：zhaomf@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030006 研究助理：金桐羽 E-MAIL：jinty@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1 ...