ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 04 月 04 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（3.31-4.4） 科技金融加快部署，美国关税大棒挥舞 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：高标准农田建设有望提速，科技金融全面部署。3 月 30 日，中共中央 办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《逐步把永久基本农田建成高标准农田实施方案》， 推动我国耕地质量从"量"到"质"全面提升，为农业可持续发展和乡村振兴 提供坚实支撑；31 日，国务院国资委党委发布《全面贯彻落实党的二十届三 中全会精神 在推进国资国企治理现代化上取得实质性突破》，为国企发展提 供清晰的路径框架，推动经济结构升级与新质生产力培育；4月 1日，国家金 融监督管理总局、科技部、国家发改委联合发布《银行业保险业科技金融高质 量发展实施方案》，全面部署科技金融支持体系建设，未来，科技金融有望成 为撬动创新链、产业链和资金链深度融合的关键支点，加快新质生产力的培育 与释放；4月 2日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅发布《关于完善价格治理 机制的意见》，推进市场化定价深化、监管体系优化与重点领域改革，助力我 国经济向高质量发展 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 04 月 06 日 证券研究报告•市场投资策略 美国对等关税落地政策解读 当地时间 4月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布对贸易伙伴征收所谓的"对等关税"措施。 美国对中国实施 34%的对等关税（叠加今年以来已经征收的 20%芬太尼关税，今年美国对中 国征收 54%的关税），对欧盟实施 20%的对等关税，对韩国实施 25%的对等关税，对日本 实施 24%的对等关税。此次"对等关税"计算方式采取的是简单粗暴的综合税率=（美方出 口额-美方进口额）/美方进口额，力度明显超出市场此前预期，全球资产价格走势也反映了由 关税冲击带来的衰退预期。美国股市剧烈震荡，连续 2 日暴跌，欧股和亚太股市也出现较大 幅度下跌，债市迎来大量避险资金，市场对美联储年内降息预期上调至 100BP。 中国在上一轮贸易战之后，不断增大对第三国转口贸易，以及出海设厂投资。而此次"对等 关税"计划不仅针对中国，还对全球几乎所有与美国存在贸易逆差的国家征收不同幅度的关 税，其中包括中国企业出海以及转口贸易较多的越南、泰国、柬埔寨等，征收的对等关税税 率分别为 46%、36%、49%：从对美顺差占 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 04 月 02 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 保利物业（6049.HK）房地产 目标价：——港元 买入 （维持） 当前价：31.95 港元 管理规模稳健增长，分红比例提升 数据来源：聚源数据 -4% 8% 20% 31% 43% 55% 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 25/3 保利物业 恒生指数 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 52 周区间(港元) | 24.75-39.85 | | 3 个月平均成交量(百万) | 1.12 | | 流通股数(亿) | 5.53 | | 市值(亿) | 176.79 | 相关研究 [Table_Report] 1. 保利物业（6049.HK）：业绩稳健增长， 外拓量质同步提升 (2024-08-21) 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 风险提示：增值服务不及预期、管理规模拓展不及预期等风险。 | 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2025 年 04 月 02 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 保利物业（6049.HK）房地产 目标价：——港元 买入 （维持） 当前价：31.95 港元 管理规模稳健增长，分红比例提升 风险提示：增值服务不及预期、管理规模拓展不及预期等风险。 | 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 16342 | 17843 | 19454 | 20982 | | 增长率 | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 1474 | 1590 | 1741 | 1863 | | 增长率 | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.0% | | 每股收益 EPS | 2.66 | 2.87 | 3.15 | 3.37 | | 净资产收益率 | 15.19% | 14.87% | 14.84% | 14.56% | | PE | 10.66 | 10.39 | 9.49 | 8.87 | 数据来源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Communication Technology Co., Ltd. (688009) with a target price of 7.20 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 5.58 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 326.44 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 11.98% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 34.95 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 0.50% [7]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed better-than-expected performance with a revenue of 117.0 billion CNY, down 5.6% year-on-year, but a net profit of 11.4 billion CNY, up 24.7% year-on-year [7]. - The company is optimizing its business structure, leading to improved profitability, with a gross margin of 29.2% in 2024, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 326.44 billion CNY, with projections of 352.37 billion CNY for 2025, 377.09 billion CNY for 2026, and 401.71 billion CNY for 2027, indicating a recovery with growth rates of 7.94%, 7.02%, and 6.53% respectively [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 34.95 billion CNY in 2024 to 38.60 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% over the next three years [10]. Business Segments - The rail transit control system business generated 295.5 billion CNY in revenue for 2024, with a growth of 1.0% year-on-year. The equipment manufacturing segment saw an 8.0% increase, while the system delivery service segment experienced a decline of 6.4% [7]. - The overseas business segment achieved significant growth, with revenue of 24.4 billion CNY, up 64.2% year-on-year, driven by projects in North America and Southeast Asia [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the rail transit control system sector and is expected to benefit from the ongoing equipment replacement cycle in the railway sector, aligning with national policies for large-scale equipment updates [7]. - The company is also expanding into the low-altitude economy, leveraging its technological advantages in rail transit control to develop drone manufacturing and service operations, with successful applications already demonstrated in several cities [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 97.92 CNY over the next six months, while the current price is 81.05 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 25.8% in 2024, but excluding the impact of a large order from the previous year, there was a 7.4% year-on-year growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 58.2% [7]. - The small molecule CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business is steadily growing, with a revenue of 45.7 billion CNY in 2024, showing an 8.9% increase when excluding large orders. The company has a robust order reserve for commercialized projects [7]. - Emerging businesses, particularly in chemical and biological macromolecules, are accelerating growth, with a 13.3% increase in revenue for the chemical macromolecule segment in 2024. The company expects significant growth in this area in 2025 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 58.0 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 66.7 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 14.9%. The net profit is expected to rise to 11.1 billion CNY, marking a 16.4% increase [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.06 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 23, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12][10]. Business Segments - The small molecule CDMO segment is expected to see revenue growth of 10.7% in 2025, with a gross margin of 48.5%. The emerging business segment is projected to grow by 31.4% in 2025, with a gross margin of 26.7% [8][10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its capabilities in the production of GLP-1 peptide projects, with significant increases in production capacity expected in 2025 [7]. Valuation - The report compares the company to peers such as WuXi AppTec and Kanglong Chemical, noting that the average PE for comparable companies is 23, slightly lower than the company's valuation. The company is considered a leader in the small molecule CDMO space, justifying a premium valuation [12].

[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 龙湖集团（0960.HK）房地产 目标价：——港元 持有 （维持） 当前价：10.34 港元 聚焦核心区域，运营业务稳健增长 风险提示：销售或不及预期，利润率或不及预期，商业拓展或不及预期。 | 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元人民币) | 127475 | 104014 | 94242 | 89319 | | 增长率 | -29.5% | -18.4% | -9.4% | -5.2% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元人民币) | 10401 | 7030 | 7137 | 7167 | | 增长率 | -19.1% | -32.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | | 每股收益 EPS | 1.51 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.04 | | 净资产收益率 | 6.44% | 4.17% | 4.06% | 3.92% | | PE | 6.17 | 9.45 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operational performance with a high dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 11 CNY per 10 shares, which accounts for 88% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 39.12 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.62 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 0.25% [2][6] - The company’s property leasing and management segment generated revenue of 33.9 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 66.0%, while the hotel operations segment saw a revenue decline of 7.6% to 5.3 billion CNY [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024A: Revenue of 39.12 billion CNY, net profit of 12.63 billion CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 40.63 billion CNY, net profit of 12.96 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 41.80 billion CNY, net profit of 13.27 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue of 42.63 billion CNY, net profit of 13.54 billion CNY [2][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.25 CNY in 2024 to 1.34 CNY in 2027 [2][10] - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.08% in 2024 to 11.98% in 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - Property Leasing and Management: - Revenue growth forecasted at 4% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 2% in 2027 [7] - Average rental rates for office space increased by 0.2% to 639 CNY per square meter per month [6] - Hotel Operations: - Revenue expected to recover with a growth of 3% in 2025 and 2% in subsequent years [7][8] Cost Management and Financial Health - The company has effectively controlled costs, with total expense ratios decreasing from 6.3% to 5.8% [6] - The asset-liability ratio has shown a downward trend, decreasing to 21.6% by year-end 2024 [6][10] - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with operating cash flow net amounting to 18.0 billion CNY in 2024 [6][10]

买入 （维持） 当前价：20.71 元 [ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 04 月 01 日 证券研究报告•2024 年报点评 天坛生物（600161）医药生物 目标价：——元（6 个月） 业绩快速增长，持续拓展新品 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6031.87 | 6734.35 | 7439.64 | 8319.21 | | 增长率 | 16.44% | 11.65% | 10.47% | 11.82% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 1549.16 | 1616.02 | 1686.26 | 1860.88 | | 增长率 | 39.58% | 4.32% | 4.35% | 10.36% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 0.94 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 14.53% | 13.41% | 12.49% | 12.32% | | PE | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operational performance with a high dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 11 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for 88% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][8] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 39.12 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.05% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.62 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.25% [2][6] - The property leasing and management segment generated revenue of 33.9 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 66.0%, while the hotel operations segment saw a revenue decline of 7.6% to 5.3 billion yuan [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2024A: Revenue of 39.12 billion yuan, net profit of 12.63 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 40.63 billion yuan, net profit of 12.96 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 41.80 billion yuan, net profit of 13.27 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 42.63 billion yuan, net profit of 13.54 billion yuan [2][10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.25 yuan in 2024 to 1.34 yuan in 2027 [2][10] - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 13.08% in 2024 to 11.98% in 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - Property Leasing and Management: - Revenue growth forecasted at 4% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 2% in 2027 [7] - Average rental rates for office space increased by 0.2% to 639 yuan per square meter per month [6] - Hotel Operations: - Revenue expected to recover with a growth of 3% in 2025 and 2% in subsequent years [7][8] Cost Management and Financial Health - The company has effectively controlled costs, reducing the total expense ratio from 6.3% to 5.8% [6] - The asset-liability ratio decreased to 21.6% by year-end, indicating improved financial stability [6][8]